http://www.drf.com/news/keeneland-notes-judy-beauty-drops-class-return-thursday-allowance
Almost the very end of the article.
Really interesting. If he haas to run clean in the Derby it just becomes a matter of deciding where to put his runners on the vertical tickets. I never thought that he had the winner anyway.
Very interesting.....Cannot wait to see how his horses run the week he is there. I might just throw him out of the pick 3\'s and pick 4\'s entirely on the Derby....that eliminates 25% of the field including possible fav. But I have to see how he does with his entrants that week and the day before in the Oaks.
CDI twitter account @derbymedia published a list of early probables for Oaks and Derby day - TAP runners:
Trial - Forty Tales & Capo Bastone
Edgewood - Riverboat Queen
Eight Belles - Fusaichiwonderful
La Troienne - Authority (V\'s workmate and she of the pr\'d 0\'s)
TSpires Turf Sprint - Bridgetown
CD Distaff Turf Mile - Channel Lady & Stopshoppingmaria
Churchill Downs (sprint) - Hierro
Also fwiw, other than the two in the stake, he has zero runners on the Saturday card.
Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Very interesting.....Cannot wait to see how his
> horses run the week he is there. I might just
> throw him out of the pick 3\'s and pick 4\'s
> entirely on the Derby....that eliminates 25% of
> the field including possible fav. But I have to
> see how he does with his entrants that week and
> the day before in the Oaks.
Fairmount:
Lets look at Verazzano, Orb and Itsmyluckyday thorographically, without, of
course, disclosing proprietary information.
Orb: ran two consecutive fast races at GP.
IMLD: ran three consecutive fast races at GP.
Verrazano: ran three consecutive fast races over three different tracks.
One way to look at this is to say, speculatively, that Orb and/or IMLD would have
hung up fast TG #s if they had been given the opportunity to run over a surface
other than GP.
Is it fair to say that Verrazano has a better chance than Orb or IMLD of
maintaining/improving his form at CD because he has already run fast at three
different tracks? To distill the question further, is there more uncertainty about
Orb and IMLD\'s ability to replicate their GP form at CD?
The \"undercard\" theory, which ties the likelihood of a runner\'s success in a
featured race to the success of the trainer\'s previous runners on the day, needs
to be renamed, because now you say to watch Pletcher\'s runners during
the entire week leading up to the Derby.
So if DOJ bounces in the Oaks, but still turns in the second fastest TG # ever
assigned to a 3YO filly, is that a positive or negative indicator of how TAP\'s
Derby crew will run?
Since Keeneland and churchill are in the same state does each track have the same rigid testing or is one more lax? Let me know. Thank you.
First let me be clear - this has NOTHING to with illegal drugs either used by the trainers; on the horses, or by this author. Trainers get hot - for whatever reason. Mike Maker is on fire obviously at KEE. There is another trainer doing pretty good by my view with the limited number of recent starters - Shug Mcgaughey. He even won with a first time starter today. Trainers can be streaky for whatever reason and Shug is hot and so is the jockey on his Derby Horse.
I do take that into consideration when picking the Derby or any other race for that matter without questioning the reason why. I think a lot of things are lining up for ORB and this is one of them.
michael
From Churchill Downs Site - Road To The Derby...
Orb is infused with an abundance of stamina from his dam, Lady Liberty, who won over as far as 1 1/2 miles on turf. She is by champion Unbridled, hero of the 1990 Kentucky Derby and Breeders\' Cup Classic.
From me...
This one may or may not have the good fortune component needed to win this derby, but with continued good health, Orb will be the champion his connections and ancestors deserve. Looking back from the future - maybe a very special champion.
Plus, Beychok obviously knows about hot streaks first hand - congratulations Michel
Richiebee,
I think it is interesting to think about horses\' abilities to translate fast form to different tracks like Verrazano has done. But I hope you will note that Verrazano\'s fastest race according to TG figs is at the Gulf still. So is his form declining outside of Hallendale? Or is he just putting up fast numbers not as fast as at Gulf as is very common with TAP runners that come out Firing at the gulf as 3yo on the dirt?
As for IMLD, wow, two real big races at Gulf. I\'ve compared him to Hey Byrn on the board before and he couldn\'t replicate his Holy bull form outside of Florida as I recall. Although as a 4yo he continued to be a force down there. I make that comparison based on Plesa being the common thread.
Orb is real confusing to me on some fronts. TG fig wise he is as good as they come at this point excepting DOJ this year. Beyer-wise he is not \"elite fig-wise but certainly can\'t be discounted based on his style adaptability and winning ways. Shug is very hot, wouldn\'t put him into this unless he is capable, even if he is hot and sweaty pre-race I don\'t think it\'s bad (i\'m still confused if he was washed down pre-paddock as I heard on the board/telecast that day or if he got hot under the collar b/c of the race nerves/crowd kicking in but it didn\'t affect him), and Shug is exuding confidence.
As you can see, i look at thing mainly through the vision of the trainers and figures. I see Verrazano as not fast enough and distance challenged outside of Gulf to win the whole thing (watch Wood gallop outs plus More Than Ready question marks) PLUS TAP\'s relative lack of success in the Derby. IMLD has the talent, is coming off a second to Orb where if he improves he could win at 15-1 or so--MUST USE in multi\'s knowing he will likely being finishing like Hey Byrn. Orb is the low-priced horse that I don\'t know what to do with yet but leaning towards USE in multi\'s and verticals.....