I decided to withdraw posting privileges from Sight for 3 months rather than giving the death penalty. But I want to explain why I did anything at all, because it\'s important.
Yes, I\'m pissed that someone is coming on my own board and saying I\'m crying wolf, delusional, a conspiracy theorist etc. But that\'s not the reason, at least mostly.
I\'ve been fighting to clean the game up re drug cheaters for more than a decade. A lot of people grumbled but didn\'t do anything-- horseplayers are a grumbling but apathetic bunch-- so I set out to use this board to attract attention to the problem, make contact with people who could get something done, gather and distribute information, and explain how our data can be used to track unlikely move-ups. The biggest hurdle I (and others, especially as time went on) had to overcome is EXACTLY the position that Sight has been taking-- that the industry doesn\'t have a problem, it has a \"problem of perception\", as industry executives used to say. That all you horseplayers who see the moveups coming from the same guys are an uninformed lot who don\'t understand what\'s happening, and that drug test results shouldn\'t be released to the general public because you are all incapable of understanding them properly (a position Sight took in a post within the last couple of days).
That position coming from anyone is enraging to someone who knows factually what I know (and have detailed here), aside from what I can see in the data. But in this case it\'s much worse than that. Sight is putting being a veterinarian and working on the backside as CREDIBILITY for that position. It\'s been like trying to turn around an aircraft carrier for me and others, but the industry is finally starting to move in the right direction-- and the last thing we need is someone saying that they have credible knowledge that there is no significant problem, some of us are just imagining things, the game is cleaner than it has ever been, cheaters are usually being caught. That\'s not just enraging, it\'s potentially destructive. And I\'m not having it on my board.
I\'ll give you another scalp,mine.Much of what you said about Sight is \"slanted\"
1.Sight NEVER said the industry does not have a problem or that there is NO cheating and its all perception.
2.Sight explained that is difficult for the conspiratorial minded player to get their arms around husbandry and many other legal methods of moving a horses up. To you guys all move ups are not possible except if its say Shug or Mott, but not Rudy/Tricky et al(only witnessed that up close and personal for like years) Is it possible that aside from all they do,tapping, injecting, stacking et al that they are also doing something illegal? yes possible but scrutiny around certain trainers is heavy and detailed, there are no \"major\"positives to confirm a smoking gun.
3.Beyer/Rags/TG all show trainers that get a horses and it suddenly improves dramatically, like 25-40% of the time, first out.Far more prevalent at the Mickey Mouse cess pool venues than at the major ones.
4.You write of things that happened years ago in Maryland,PA(all true I\'m certain but what does that have to do with today. Kentucky changed labs because of poor/no testing. How does that back into TAP being 0-32.Suddenly TAP does not move up horses illegally but does it from inception(new from you) His multi million dollar operation is all a fraud, there are no talented athletes in the barn.Doc is solely responsible for the barns success! Thats not conspiratorial, naw!
When people spend countless hours,money(not enough) on every aspect of securing the NY racing game and there is still doubt about the liberal use of ILLEGAL stuff, wadda gonna do?. Much more transparency could help with perception but I\'ll guess the same guys are gonna win at the same strike rates for the most part. If they could weed out the real illegal stuff, which accounts for a small portion of the garbage written, it may help somewaht but there has been and always will be the conspiracy idiot, every race is fixed, football game, basketball game etc. No, conspiracy idiot, only some!
Leave you with famous words of the banished one, \"who needs to cheat, got tons of stuff to help me\"
Sayonara
Whaaa?
I\'ll let what Sight said speak for itself, everyone read it, I don\'t have to do a greatest hits. But saying most cheaters get caught, without anything to back it up despite being asked repeatedly and evidence being presented showing there was no way to possibly know that, was the breaking point.
You\'re dead wrong about cheating not going on at the major venues-- that\'s where Allday did what he did, by his own admission, even if you don\'t believe we could see it in the data. (By the way, everyone on this board commented about Frankel moving up horses in 2001, long before I found out in 2008 that\'s when he got involved with Allday). But let\'s say it was true-- if it goes on at what you consider the non-major venues, which comprise the vast majority of tracks and races in the country, a) Sight is wrong, and b) the industry has a real problem, even if YOU don\'t bet those tracks.
The Pletcher paragraph is a complete misrepresentation of my position, but I\'m pretty sure nobody cares. I know I don\'t.
Anybody know when Rudy started training? I would like to post sheets for his first 30 or so starters.
Equibase shows RR\'s training started in 2010. Don\'t know which month.
John-- I think you\'re the first person to ever accuse me of editing myself and being diplomatic.
By the way, any time you want to chime in on the Allday stuff, jump right in.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'ll give you another scalp,mine.Much of what you
> said about Sight is \"slanted\"
>
> 1.Sight NEVER said the industry does not have a
> problem or that there is NO cheating and its all
> perception.
>
> 2.Sight explained that is difficult for the
> conspiratorial minded player to get their arms
> around husbandry and many other legal methods of
> moving a horses up. To you guys all move ups are
> not possible except if its say Shug or Mott, but
> not Rudy/Tricky et al(only witnessed that up close
> and personal for like years) Is it possible that
> aside from all they do,tapping, injecting,
> stacking et al that they are also doing something
> illegal? yes possible but scrutiny around certain
> trainers is heavy and detailed, there are no
> \"major\"positives to confirm a smoking gun.
>
> 3.Beyer/Rags/TG all show trainers that get a
> horses and it suddenly improves dramatically, like
> 25-40% of the time, first out.Far more prevalent
> at the Mickey Mouse cess pool venues than at the
> major ones.
>
> 4.You write of things that happened years ago in
> Maryland,PA(all true I\'m certain but what does
> that have to do with today. Kentucky changed labs
> because of poor/no testing. How does that back
> into TAP being 0-32.Suddenly TAP does not move up
> horses illegally but does it from inception(new
> from you) His multi million dollar operation is
> all a fraud, there are no talented athletes in the
> barn.Doc is solely responsible for the barns
> success! Thats not conspiratorial, naw!
>
>
> When people spend countless hours,money(not
> enough) on every aspect of securing the NY racing
> game and there is still doubt about the liberal
> use of ILLEGAL stuff, wadda gonna do?. Much more
> transparency could help with perception but I\'ll
> guess the same guys are gonna win at the same
> strike rates for the most part. If they could weed
> out the real illegal stuff, which accounts for a
> small portion of the garbage written, it may help
> somewaht but there has been and always will be the
> conspiracy idiot, every race is fixed, football
> game, basketball game etc. No, conspiracy idiot,
> only some!
>
> Leave you with famous words of the banished one,
> \"who needs to cheat, got tons of stuff to help
> me\"
>
> Sayonara
Miff,
I\'m with you. I think there is far less cheating than the rank and file horseplayer believes there to be.
What is worse missing the few who get by with cheating are alarming the horse playing world by saying our sport is riddled with dirt, cheats and thieves?
Transparency isn\'t the answer. Each time a trainer gets fined or days for a minor overage of some therapeutic medication the Public Alarm is sounded.
I\'m surely not saying further testing and rules enforcement isn\'t important I just think it needs to be a balanced approach.
On the other side of the leger I\'ve had numerous trainers who have been unfairly treated because of the Absolute Insurer rule.
Finally, I think Sightsounds contributions were sincere and well meant. I think it is unfair and ill advised to have him removed
The only thing I have to say about Steve Allday is that I met him a few times and that he seemed like a really nice guy.
From a former literature major I can add: he was supercilious too.
From a horse owner (me again) I can tell you that there is nothing more maddening than watching your non-drugged runner come second to a hopped up horse racing out of a dirty stable --- further knowing that the \'testers\' are in over their heads vis-a-vis these guys.
Hang out in the walking ring. It happens every day and it\'s obvious.
Alm,
\"Hang out in the walking ring. It happens every day and it\'s obvious.\"
I\'ve been owning and Breeding for over 30 years and have spent countless hours in the paddock. It isn\'t obvious to me could you explain?
Danny
What needs to be explained?Buy this product,ragozin,or look at the beyer numbers and see the way they jump when these guys claim a horse.You have to be blind not to see it.
Vito-- you would think so. But a lot of people either don\'t use figures (they look at win percentage, so they don\'t see the jumps) or they aren\'t paying close attention. Or in some cases they may not handicap seriously at all, just own horses or (ahem) work on the backstretch. It took me a while to get Rick Arthur and others to see how figures could help them identify problems.
I have NEVER said the industry doesn\'t have a problem.
I have ALWAYS taken the position that there is cheating,cheaters are slime,it must be stopped.
The only thing I have ever done on this board is try to interject some reality and fact into the conspiracy theories.
Your blatent mischaracterization of what I\'ve said here over the years is reason enough to laugh at your \"I\'ve suspended Sight because my ego is bruised\".
I\'ll continue doing well for, and helping, race horses on a daily basis. You continue to post for your acolytes on the internet.
For the record, I\'ve gotten a series of texts and emails thanking me for doing this. Goodbye.
there are an abundance of 5% trainers, and probably the equivalent of with vets. Its guys with these %s who think the game is clean and cheaters are getting caught.
Just an FYI Vito,
Years ago we claimed horses with some success. Our group included; a former jock 300 wins, an ivy league degree in animal science (or similar), two capable trainers and a thirty year Kentucky outrider.
A few instances; we claimed a horse at Churchill that ran off EVERY morning for $7500. We changed the bit and ran it back for $15 and it won.
We had White Belt who broke his maiden for a nickle winning by thirteen and was claimed from us. That trainer, still around could not figure out the horses feet, he was a stallwalker and always tried to get out. We took him back when he dropped him and cleaned his stall round the clock eventually running him back at Keeneland for what we claimed him for. He won handy and paid some $57.
My point is that new barns move up horses routinely. Of course many go the other way. To say that drugs are involved (illegal ones) is copping out to good horsemanship. Using integers to measure performance exascerbates the moveups.
Lastly, i am not naive that PED\'s are not out there, but they are very few in number. Unfortunately, one positive from a prominent trainer gets more publicity than a host of solid day to day horsemanship ever recieves. bbb
You are two days and about 100 posts behind the curve here, so I\'m going to let that last paragraph go.
If you want to catch up find the Pletcher string, go to about 6:00 last night, and read every post. Some are more important than others.
Amen,
TGJB I\'ve not said much on this subject; for reasons that ARE NOT SO RECENT FOR ME!!!!
I\'m sickened by the state of our beloved sport and my wagering has declined accordingly. Comparatively speaking to some on this board I\'m a small player but once upon a time I would push 5-10k per day through the windows. Now even during my beloved Spa meet its 2-3k maxium.
Drugs have ruined the game; anyone who bets serious money on a daily basis would agree. NY is a complete joke with the winter inner track meet being completely un betable.
I\'m appalled by the blind, deaf and dumb who continually say nothing is going on or we are all conspiracy theorist. Those of us who pluck serious money down on a daily basis or used to know that the playing field is not level.
Look around san the program/batch bettors most guys I know focus on a couple of particular meets a year and take their shots. Trying to beat the take out, juice trainers, every day luck good or bad and 100\'s of other variables that figure into the toughest game in town.
I don\'t have to name trainers as I\'ve stated many times my opinion on several; the same names come up over and over again and the T-graph sheets measure ability over a period of time.
If anyone thinks this game is clean on a daily basis they are a complete idiot!!!!
I\'ve spent lot\'s of time on the backstretch, training tracks, with clockers, owners, trainers, jockeys, exercises riders, grooms et all !!!
Even in his hey day through the mid 80\'s Oscar Barrera was never a 30% trainer in NY. The juice trainers de jour at particular meets are winning at 30 or 40 % on hay and oats ????? REALLY !
Good luck,
Frank D.
With all due respect,I don\'t own horses and I respect your knowledge about that aspect,but there are 20 trainers at least that are using something and if you don\'t realize it then you are afraid of reality.Let\'s take Ness and Navarro.Have you ever looked at a sheet of a horse they just claimed.You can\'t be serious.the horses literally explode 6,8 lengths faster.I am playing horses a very long time and it doesn\'t make sense.Moya at mommouth Maker ,Jacobson ,RRR, Zladie and on and on.Now you have the Baffert thing.What\'s next?
Sightsound,
For me, what you had to say was neither here nor there simply an opinion. However, how you expressed yourself came across as obnoxious, belligerent and angry. Frankly, you soured a community which is otherwise cooperative and respect full.
Consider.... a need to be right causes one to make others wrong! Most would rather win. i.e. Have success.
Your righteousness and behavior have been rejected. That is losing not winning.
Wake up! Alienation doesn\'t work. Here is a personal growth exercise that has worked for many before you - when people speak to you either kneel down or have them stand above you - miraculously.... you will be able to hear them.
My motivation is to save what\'s left of your life.
vp612 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> What needs to be explained?Buy this
> product,ragozin,or look at the beyer numbers and
> see the way they jump when these guys claim a
> horse.You have to be blind not to see it.
Vito
U misunderstood my post
1. I used rags until I converted to thorograph about 7 to 10 years ago
2. I see jump up numbers ( cheaters ) just like u
3. I don\'t see it as so pervasive
But the point of my query was how do u identify the horses in the paddock
I\'m all for cleaning up racing but let\'s not throw the baby out with the bath water
I f you don\'t see it as persuasive then what is it?Guys winning at 30% clip, claim a horse,run him back in a week ,10,days and it\'s a different horse.Look no hard feelings we disagree,I think it is rampant you don\'t.
With all the respect your message references, are you serious? You are out to save the life of \"Sightsound\"? And recommend that because of what has transpired here that she prostrate herself before everyone that speaks to her?
TGJB, with all respect, there is more offensive in the post above -- its utter irrelevance to anything that should concern us here, its baseless condescension, its pure vapidity -- than anything Sight wrote.
Jb, Vito
I think its best, for me, to let sleeping dogs lie as far as this topic goes.
A few opinions;
Moving a horse up WITHOUT drugs is VERY rampant in the claiming game.
Many trainers have more client money than actual knowledge and they prove it day after day.
Eighty plus percent of people reading this post, given time, lose money betting horses.
Lets move on. bbb
It\'s also one isolated post. We\'ve had everything from poetry to people telling their life stories here, I allow a little leeway.
Having said that, the kneeling thing is a little much...
That was your idea of letting sleeping dogs lie?
vp612 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I f you don\'t see it as persuasive then what is
> it?Guys winning at 30% clip, claim a horse,run
> him back in a week ,10,days and it\'s a different
> horse.Look no hard feelings we disagree,I think it
> is rampant you don\'t.
Vito,
The sheets ( rag r thoro ) make a very persuasive case that there r move up trainers who cheat!
I don\'t find it to be Pervasive, only a select few and I\'m all for scrutinizing and testing them
Appreciate and respect your opinion and enjoy your post on brand x. By the way the twin creeks owner and managers are very good friends and needle me to return
All the best
Apologies.
Knick fan. Game started.
If not your board the losing percentage would have been much greater. bbb
Sorry I meant pervasive (gotta watch my spelling).We all have opinions and that\'s what this game is about.Who\'s going to win the derby,that\'s what I want to know.
Disclaimer. Picking the derby winner hasn\'t been my forte. So while I\'m still open to works and seeing the horses in the am. I\'m an ORB man thus far
Veranzano is pounds the best colt Vito but has a trio of negatives, at least for me;
1) he raced at Tampa
2) No starts at Two
3) Was he hazing in the stretch, in the Wood? If not: No chance. If so long gone, especially with the new rules. bbb
You\'re in the ring at Calder and a shipper from Aqueduct walks in veins bulging with the handler hanging on for dear life. He was recently claimed from a race in which he was buried up there and gets the shit bet out of him today. He beats you by four and a couple of weeks later he returns in the same company and runs off the board. He can barely walk.
That\'s how you tell. When the same trainer goes something like 7 for 12 with similar NY shippers you get the full picture.
I don\'t know about the rest of it but there is clear correlation with unusual heavy betting action and horses running well with moveup trainers.
bellsbendboy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Veranzano is pounds the best colt Vito but has a
> trio of negatives, at least for me;
>
> 1) he raced at Tampa
>
> 2) No starts at Two
>
> 3) Was he hazing in the stretch, in the Wood? If
> not: No chance. If so long gone, especially with
> the new rules. bbb
Can you explain 1) he raced at Tampa?
Just curious as to why this is a negative and equal to him only having zero starts at 2. Thnx
Since Frank D\'s opinion seems to be shared by the majority here, I have 3 questions for anyone who cares to respond:
1. Given that the game is fixed, why do you continue to play it?
2. Why do you buy expensive past performance data like TG when past performances are so frequently rendered meaningless by the common place use of drugs to alter the performance of the horses?
3. For the subset of you who own horses, why do you continue to invest the large sums of money that is required to acquire horses and keep them in training when the playing field is so unlevel, unless you also intend to cheat like your competitors?
Has any other suspicious trainer bombed as much as pletcher during the period at churchill were talking about? Maker? etc?
if you really believe its just drugs, pick out a certain jockey and watch him in the stretch, tell me he dont know if hes suppose to win
Well said Frank D. I\'ve been wagering for 15+ years. As the game has steadily devolved from handicapping horses into handicapping trainers, I\'ve steadily reduced my play and picked up other hobbies. There are reasons that horse racing is dying in this country and cheats are at the top of that list. Anyone not realizing what is going on and how it affects the future of the sport is naive. It\'s pretty clear and understable why JB is pissed off. The cheating has a direct affect on his business as people like me have been steadily buying less and less racing forms over the years. I\'d be fighting with the same grit and determination as him if I were in his shoes.
FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Drugs have ruined the game; anyone who bets
> serious money on a daily basis would agree. NY is
> a complete joke with the winter inner track meet
> being completely un betable.
>
> I\'m appalled by the blind, deaf and dumb who
> continually say nothing is going on or we are all
> conspiracy theorist. Those of us who pluck serious
> money down on a daily basis or used to know that
> the playing field is not level.
>
> If anyone thinks this game is clean on a daily
> basis they are a complete idiot!!!!
> I\'ve spent lot\'s of time on the backstretch,
> training tracks, with clockers, owners, trainers,
> jockeys, exercises riders, grooms et all !!!
>
> Even in his hey day through the mid 80\'s Oscar
> Barrera was never a 30% trainer in NY. The juice
> trainers de jour at particular meets are winning
> at 30 or 40 % on hay and oats ????? REALLY !
>
> Good luck,
>
> Frank D.
I don\'t think anyone on this board has claimed that nothing is going on, or that the game is clean on a daily basis. There has been disagreement on how prevalent it is.
Well said,it is very difficult to platy a race no matter what you use when the first thing you look at is who just claimed a horse in the race.
No one? These were sincere questions. I would really like to hear from the players and owners why they stay in the game.
cheating will ruin the game. would u continue to play black jack if the dealer was dealing off the bottom?
Jim,
I think you are likely asking the wrong question, at least by my view.
Check the average age of the people that are still playing this game. At 46, I feel like a babe in the woods at the Saratoga Thorograph seminars. The people that still play likely got \"addicted\" or \"hooked\" on it years ago and I chose those separate words intentionally.
The game is not attracting any new players, at least not in real numbers. And that makes it a \"dying game\". The game\'s reputation is horrible, cheating is presumed to run rampant, although technically most of us don\'t know how rampant it is, and the ones that still bet the game likely feel we can factor that into our handicapping, like sheets or track bias or trips.
I am not sure it can change, even if it is cleaned up, it just may not never get broader appeal, but a \"clean game\" would certainly help the chances that more get involved, both gambling on it and even some potential new owners.
Just a thought.
Jim
1-- Nobody said \"fixed\". Wrestling is fixed. Baseball has cheaters. I still follow baseball.
2-- Cheating doesn\'t make TG or other data meaningless. Only inaccuracy can do that. Cheating makes it harder to win, but you will still do better with accurate data than without it.
3-- The answer is not to quit the game, it\'s to fix it. The other meaning of fix.
This game has a lot of problems,cheating is one,loss of the big time stables,Mellon,Phipps etc.,The biggest problem is the proliferation of other types of gambling,lotto ,casino\'s etc.Also the industry has done a terrible job of promoting the game.I could go on but I don\'t want to bore you.
Vito,
Agree the problem is multi-dimensional. It certainly can\'t hurt to have the game cleaned up. I kinda agree with you on marketing, but how about some real improvements so that the marketing has a chance for success. Most other forms of entertainment, even within gambling, have done some \"catering\" to the players. What has horse racing done? A few tracks have one bet at a 15% takeout? A few places don\'t charge admission once in awhile.
All things in life evolve or fall by the wayside. Not sure which way horse racing goes.......
They have a long way to go to save this game,but cleaning it up would be a good start.This game used to have great horses Ruffian,Slew,Forego,Affirmed,Alydar
Secretariat,and others .WHERE are they.?Racing needs stars ,they have none.They have watered down the product because all the tracks care about is the takeout.Simulcasting has hurt the game rather than help it.Nobody goes to the track.
Vito,
You start naming Forego and Ruffian, you belong at the Thorograph seminar at Carolina Barbecue up at Saratoga.
30 people show up. Average age 77.5. Average age drops substantially for the weekends TGJB gives the seminar instead of TGAB. Both because of their difference in age and because TGAB has a \"cult-like following\" of women in their 20\'s and 30\'s.......
Jim
You\'re killing me.
All valid points but my questions weren\'t really addressing \"the game\" in general. My questions were specifically addressed to the posters on this board. Why do YOU play the game, buy the sheets, own horses if you believe cheating is so widespread? Of course one response is that YOU don\'t believe cheating is widespread. That was the Sighthound position. So my questions are to those who disagreed with Sighthound and believe that cheating is rampant. Or as Frank D said The game has been ruined\". I\'m strugging to understand how one can think the game has been ruined, that cheating is widespread, and the results are determined by which trainers have the best drugs. So I\'m looking for some personal testimonials along the lines of \"I believe the game has been runied by the rampant cheating, but I play it anyway because ...\" I would really like to hear Covello explain why he would invest so much money in racing horses in an environment where cheating is so rampant.
So true. So why not embrace the change. We are not going to the track. Have the family gather round the tv. Interrupt a boring game and get a rebate. Hook those youngens. Every thirty minutes we can win
Besides which how would Jimbo know, he doesn\'t come when I do the seminar anyway.
Meanwhile, Steve is losing the location, so we\'re going to have to find a new one. I\'m going to start working on that after the TC.
Go head to head with you man. 77???
Very true TGJB.
I have \"sheets\" on the Seminar deliverers and I only come when the deliverer has a high ROI...........
I guess that means the pot roast sandwich w/ horseradish & Carolina Red Hot won\'t be re-named the Frank D.
DRAT !!!!
JimP Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> All valid points but my questions weren\'t really
> addressing \"the game\" in general. My questions
> were specifically addressed to the posters on this
> board. Why do YOU play the game, buy the sheets,
> own horses if you believe cheating is so
> widespread? Of course one response is that YOU
> don\'t believe cheating is widespread. That was the
> Sighthound position. So my questions are to those
> who disagreed with Sighthound and believe that
> cheating is rampant. Or as Frank D said The game
> has been ruined\". I\'m strugging to understand how
> one can think the game has been ruined, that
> cheating is widespread, and the results are
> determined by which trainers have the best drugs.
> So I\'m looking for some personal testimonials
> along the lines of \"I believe the game has been
> runied by the rampant cheating, but I play it
> anyway because ...\" I would really like to hear
> Covello explain why he would invest so much money
> in racing horses in an environment where cheating
> is so rampant.
Jim, it\'s a percentage game, in nearly every way, and it\'s no different with the \"cheating.\" Since none of us, including Sighthound, know how pervasive it is, it becomes one more unknown with which we must deal. I think there are a number of ways one can do that without having to go cold turkey on the sport. If you base your suppositions on the kind of data analysis JB does, then perhaps you can isolate some individuals in some situations, and either avoid them or exploit them, if the percentages dictate. There are some tracks which arouse more suspicion, and you can simply eliminate those, if your trust factor gets sufficiently diluted.
Let\'s take this Keeneland meet, for example, which is normally one of my favorites. This meet, however, wasn\'t, because Mike Maker sucked some of the life right out of it. Does this mean I think he was dirty? No, because I have no way of knowing, but even more to the point, why would he when he\'s a sharp trainer, he has all of Ramsey\'s money at his disposal, and it became very clear at the end of last year that they were pointing to the claiming crown being moved to Gulfstream, and carry it forward right to Keeneland. At some point, whether he cheats or not, it creates the same effect of dominance, short prices and diluted value in the way that I like to wager. So, there are a variety of ways that certain behaviors, for whatever reason, are going to alter your betting patterns, and you adjust, accordingly. The net effect is quite likely an overall reduction of play, and we\'ve seen testimonials to that effect on this board from some serious players. But, it\'s a game we still love, with enough upside for us to still want to keep a skin in it. Unfortunately, the shadow cast by the uncertain element of cheating, has changed the conversation, and it probably has embittered players more than actually driving them to the sidelines.
Wow - be careful your asking the $64,000 question -and it may get you banned!
Background - 53 yrs old weekend warrior and have been playing the races since I\'m 16. I don\'t use the sheets solely the drf. I push 2-4k a month through the windows. Play 70 pct from home and 30pct from the race palace in ny or at Belmont when there is live racing. I DO believe there is cheating going on and the actual percentage I will leave to everyones own thoughts as we will never be able to quantify an actual number. The claim that trainers are cheating is not new to the game many have said that NY trainers like Moschera, Ferriola, Barrera, and others were very strong bets first off and they moved up there horses considerably off the claim. I don\'t have the data but I am confident these trainers stats would be comparable to today\'s trainers RR, Ness, Zadie et al off the claim and yield short payoffs when live. The game hasn\'t changed just the faces. If the blue bloods didn\'t clean it up quietly back then it will take an awful lot to do it now. Therefore, certain trainers off the claim are integrated into my handicapping, for it not to be would be foolish given the data.
In spite of it all I still play this game because I love it. Like everyone else when I cash a winning bet all of what\'s wrong with this game is quickly forgotten. I believe the only way this game gets fixed, is by a)those in charge being honest with themselves and admit that there are problems b)prioritize the issues with fairness to the gambling public and horses c)formalize a racing policy of all racetracks with the formation of racing board and a commissioner who has complete oversight and jurisdiction. Imagine each football or baseball team governing themselves,(yes problems still do occur) but the teeth of the commissioners office and it\'s sanctioning powers are deferents that help in preventing widespread cheating. Lastly, I believe the only way this game gets cleaned up in a more expedient manner is through a WHISTLEBLOWER. Giving a Alladay immunity to discuss and gloat what transpires does NOT solve the problem it only exacerbates it. Don\'t vets have a moral and professional obligation!!!
In spite of it all I continue to play and love this game.
This is great, with a lot of old timers chiming in, with great horses like Forego
getting remembered, and of course with Jimbo alienating us all by revealing that
he is \"only\" 46.
Many talk about all that is bad with racing now: \"Cheating\", lack of transparency,
high takeout, short fields, horses who only need to make 8 or 9 starts per year to
be profitable with an inflated purse structure (or are only physically capable of
making 8 or 9 starts per year), a diluted genetic pool, lack of national or even
regional leadership, equine fatalities, crumbling facilities, apathy on the part
of racetrack management towards two groups which support the game -- backstretch
workers and the wagering public. I am sure I have missed quite a few.
It is important to remember that there have been many developments which have made
the sport/hobby/business/escape of horseplaying more enjoyable and potentially
more profitable in recent years. My frame of reference is that when I first
started off playing in the mid 70s (yes Jimbo you were only a wee lad then) I was
exposed to two extremes in racing -- the dirt cheap tracks in sourthern Illinois
and, during summer vacations from college, NYRA, specifically Belmont and
Saratoga, in its heyday. The NYRA facilities were still being maintained
fastidiously and the 1970s was the \"Decade of Champions\", with three Triple Crown
winners and a near miss later in the decade who may have been as talented as any
of the other three. There were true champions on both sides of the pond.
As great as NYRA was then your choices were limited to (a) attending the races
live or (b) sitting in a decrepit OTB where your winnings were surcharged and
quite possibly, you could only listen to, but not see, the races.
Today we have simulcasting at the racetracks and to me, the greatest innovation of
all, Living Room Downs. Imagine that with the right ADW, not only are your
winnings not surcharged, but if you wager lustily enough, you may be eligible for
a decent sized rebate on the money you push through the windows.
Trying to remember, and maybe someone equally as old and decrepit as me can help
me remember, what the NYRA wagering menu was like in the 1970s. There were
certainly no Pick 3s, Pick 4s, or Pick 5s. I believe there was only one trifecta,
on the ninth and final race of the day. Two doubles a day, races 1/2 and 8/9; a
middle double on races 6/7 was later added. Quinellas on races 2 and 4. And lets
not forget that the minimum wager at NYRA was $2; one winter I spent at FG in New
Orleans in the early 1980s the minimum win wager was $3, and I seem to recall in
the late 70s early 80s that the minimum exacta wager at California tracks was $5.
Enough already. You get the point. As a downtrodden lot, we as horseplayers are
much better off in the 21st Century than we were way back when, in the Decade of
Champions, which as great as it was in some ways, may as well have been the dark
ages.
Amen, richiebee: \"Living Room Downs\" is the only reason this married-with-kids guy gets to play the races at all. I can sneak in some handicapping after the kiddies get to bed on Friday night, or maybe before they wake up on Saturday, and then I leave my \'puter on the NYRA Rewards page all afternoon, checking in and making plays in between bouts of food shopping, laundry, transporting kids to and from play dates, cleaning, trips to the local playground, listening to my band of the month, and cooking. Going to the parlor all afternoon and leaving the domestic scene all to the wife is not an option, and I\'d feel lousy about myself if it was. As it is I consider myself lucky to get up to the Spa four or five Saturdays with the oldest son when the show comes to the neighborhood.
Seems like there\'s a lot of hand-wringing about the decline in on-track attendance and handle, but to me the flip side of this is that the industry hasn\'t done a good job exploiting the play-from-home angle. Think about football; the popularity boggles the mind, and the on-site attendance is admittedly important, if they held studio games like they run studio racing pretty much everywhere now maybe it wouldn\'t hold the same appeal, but let\'s face it, guys watching and betting is where they make their hay, no? The racing industry seems to look at playing from home as evidence their model isn\'t working, I think they have it ass-backwards, they need to be pushing the wonders of playing from home in between everything else we gotta get done. Hitting a 7-1 shot minutes after finishing dinner prep feels just as good as hitting one while sitting in the stands, maybe even better; seems they frown on uncorking a bottle of something good in the stands, but my wife doesn\'t seem to mind, as long as I pour hers first.
Just my $0.02......
PapaChach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Seems like there\'s a lot of hand-wringing about
> the decline in on-track attendance and handle, but
> to me the flip side of this is that the industry
> hasn\'t done a good job exploiting the
> play-from-home angle.
This is where you find yourself in the midst of a paradigm shift. Your example of football transitioning to the living room is one in which the owners can have their cake and eat it too, in terms of augmenting use of existing facilities. Racing is not in any kind of growth stage, so the Living Room Downs crowd will only make on site attendance even more sparse. I don\'t know the economics of the game, but how big a piece of it is tied into on track attendance, independent of handle? What becomes of these dinosaurs, built to accommodate tens of thousands, having fewer paying customers than employees? One obvious answer is attrition of smaller tracks, unless they\'re kept afloat by slots, as is the case with many right now.
The other issue is the social aspect of the game. While you can\'t beat the convenience of placing bets out of your La-Z-Boy, part of the attraction is the give and take among peers, and the positive reinforcement one gains from knowing that others have also just been screwed out of a deserving winner. I\'m not sure which pup tent the TG Saratoga seminar will call home this summer, but where else can you find such a motley crew of punters who can solve most of the world\'s problems in less time than it takes Andy Serling to misdiagnose the upcoming race?
A partial solution may lie in social media itself, and this is one area where the sport might, if not get ahead of the curve, at least not get buried by it. I\'m sure people already use E-mail for this purpose, but it\'s unwieldy compared to what could be done in a vehicle geared toward providing a platform for immediate interaction among a group. The technology exists, and if I\'m ignorant about it, my sixteen year old isn\'t. And that\'s what they\'ll come to expect -- the cyber replication of the social part of the on track experience, without the overpriced beer.
Nice post Papa. Watch the replay of Keen\'s last race yesterday(Thur). I have a nice Tri with the 1-4 on top, about 30 yrds from the wire. Tell me what you think of the ride on the 4 horse at 44-1. I hit a smaller tri with him third, but......and I\'ll be back...I\'ll play today and when I leave the house, I just may look at my ipad, iphone, iwhatever to catch the last bet that I put in. Cheaters be damned....I will be back
Stewards already said that jock will be penalized for misjudging the finish line, and yes it was blatant.
Roger,
A well thought out cerebral post as always. That\'s why you can\'t hang with Richibee and I at the brew pub for too long!
Other than Triple Crown, Breeders Cup, a few big race days and opening days around the country; the live product is dead, buried and not coming back at any venue except one.
The Spa will get a full fledged casino down the street at the harness track and Saratoga will become even more of a destination than it already is. It\'s the only venue with a semblance of a marketing plan and looking to draw new clients.
Living room downs, poker rooms, etc... increase the handle but do nothing to grow the sport and interest of anyone under 40. My own son at 21 has never been to the track not once. He expressed a curious interest a few times in going with me but something more alluring always has come up. Granted its not anything I ever promoted or encouraged but other than a Friday twilight card with entertainment and hot young girls ( TGAB groupies) wandering about his interest is nill.
The lot of us 50 plus somethings grew up without I-pads, computers, game boy\'s,cell phones and I tunes. We had baseball, football and basketball to play, spectate and watch occasionally on tv.
In my area it was the corner bookie joint, the guy in the 7-up hat that went from corner grocery store to luncheonette to any and all local businesses collecting the numbers and daily horse bets. Everyone in the local bar on a Saturday talked about the feature race in NY, the racing form, poker games, daily number and local bookies and loan sharks were part of everyday life. Blue collar guys who worked at GE or one of the other factories took their vacation during August to go to the track or a week in the winter to go to Gulfstream or Hialeah. Horse racing was a part of everyday life and something everyone had some basic knowledge of.
The sport as a whole missed the boat in the 70\'s with the emergence of OTB, it should have been one entente from day one. The tracks resisted and the politicians had a field day while the Phipps, Whitney\'s and blue bloods et al stood by fiddling like Nero as Rome burned.
It will never be the same again and what we have today is about as good as it\'s ever gonna get again.
So in the spirit of Covel\'s previous post about adjourning all problems until post DERBY!!!
Churchill opens tomorrow night, its Derby week, short fields in the first 5 tomorrow night but its under the lights, the Derby Trial with Paul Horning trying to get in and I\'m off to the Harness track for dinner, simulcasting and Vapors afterward in an attempt to keep some TGJB type late hours tomorrow.
Good luck,
Frank D.
\"2-- Cheating doesn\'t make TG or other data meaningless. Only inaccuracy can do that.\"
Accuracy of the data is not the issue. Predictive value is the issue. The most accurate data in the world is of no value if it lacks predictive capacity. If one accepts that the outcome of any upcoming race is likely to be substantially determined by drug-on or drug-off actions of the participating trainers then it seems to me that the predictive value of any past performance data will be severely compromised, if not rendered completely useless, or (even worse) totally missleading. In a world of pervasive drug manipulation why should we assume that accurate past performance data contains predictive value?
You have it backwards. It\'s the accuracy that lets us know WHO is cheating, and how to deal with it in our handicapping. Which in some cases means passing races, in others realizing that we have to protect our longshot with an exacta under what superficially is a slow horse, knowing that certain guys for whatever reason only get results on dirt, etc. Drugs make things more difficult-- but they would be a LOT more difficult without having accurate data.
Pc, There\'s one HUGE difference between the NFL and horse racing. In the NFL, bettors can bet without having to support the show, not one penny of the \'vig\' goes to pay the participants. In horse racing, the bettors are paying thru the nose to support the show.
People are looking for a good gamble, football and sports betting are better gambles than horse racing, you get more bang for your buck with an NFL bet. The great thing about an NFL bet is that if you win, its takeout free. In horse racing, the winners pay ALL the takeout.
What is so great about betting football laying 110 to win 100 every time?? You have to be right over60% of the time to show a profit. And since when do winners in horseracing pay all the takeout?? You need to check out how that works. The exception is the onerous surcharge on winning bets at some OTBs.
I didnt say laying 110 to win 100 is great, but its a better gamble than horse racing, its a lower takeout, its about 5% give or take.
As far as the winners paying all the takeout in horse racing, i know that technically you pay the takeout when you make your wager, but the people that FEEL the takeout on any one particular race are the winners.
It\'s a 10% vig to win everytime. Essentially you are wagering to win less than even money. I\'m not saying winning at the races is easy, but you have the choice of wagering or not wagering depending on the odds. Most successful horseplayers I know will wager when they know they will be rewarded handsomely when they are right. They also know that there will be many losers in between. I do not know any winning horseplayers who wager on less than even money horses EVERY TIME.
10% vig is not the same as 10% takeout on a parimutuel pool, and your math is incredibly off on break-even.
The break-even hit rate for -110 line bets is 52.4%, not 60%. Try the math, if you play 1000 games and win 524 of them, you will break even.
I was being overly simple on the math. If you bet 10 games and split them, you lose. Thats why I said you have to win 6 of 10.
I did not mean to infer that the vig and racetrack handle were the same.
Thanks for the math. Im not gonna bet 1000 games!!!!
Ah, the NFL. Now there\'s a drug free environment.
\"WHO is cheating, and how to deal with it in our handicapping\"
There\'s the crux of the matter: How to deal with it in our handicapping!
Is there something in the archive on that? I would like to see your recommendations on how to factor in drug-on and drug-off considerations into handicapping future races. Is it measurable? Can it be factored into the figures? Can you adjust the Thoro-patterns for it? How do you look at an upcoming race and factor in the drug possibilities?
And I doubt most people are only going to be playin 10 games in their lives either. Knowing whether you are winning or losing in the long-run over a large sample space is the only way to truly know if you are lucky or good, be it football, poker, or horse racing, and the difference between 52.4% and 60% win rate is astronomical for anyone playing football.
I run a handicapping contest each year where you play 6 games a week for 18 weeks (college or pro with a fixed set of lines), a total of 108 selections, and we usually have about 50-60 guys. Each year, without fail, a couple guys are hitting at 70% for a few weeks or even half the season and many people lose hope, but by the end of the season the winners are always somewhere near 60-62%. I always tell people to never watch the scoreboard and concentrate on trying to hit 60%, and if you do, you will get one of the payout spots in the contest. It is rare for more than 10% of the participants to finish the season at 60%, and rarer still for people to have multiple years hitting above 55%.
Moral of the story is, touts who are playing multiple games every week and are claiming 70% or something outrageous like that had better have data to back it up. Once the sample size gets to be around 100, it is nearly impossible to do. And once it hits 500, 60% is nearly impossible.
I have probably discussed that stuff in 50 ROTW\'s.
Questions better suited for Jerry. Do you keep charts on races in which you wager? In my experience you can keep track of the sheets you purchase and see the move ups. Redboard room is a great tool. Keep note of those trainers who pop big figures, especially those old claimers running first or 2nd off the claim. You will quickly see trends from the Usual Suspects. Some will argue that the huge improvement is the good work some trainers do (it\'s always the shoes!). The key is being able to find those patterns and predict who might be the next big jump up.
The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn\'t exist.
Indeed.
One of the most important things the data can do is make you aware when someone is moving up horses before the public catches on. Sometimes you can pick it up just by a couple of big jumps within a couple of days. All of a sudden Persaud horses are running in NY, and I\'m watching...
And Sight, if you\'re reading this, Maker isn\'t doing anything at Keeneland, because if he was they would have caught him.
It\'s not really fair to compare the high odds return on a horse race , be it a win bet or some exotic, with the 50/50 prop of a sports bet.
If they ran nothing but match races, yeah.
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
(b) sitting in a decrepit OTB where your
> winnings were surcharged and
> quite possibly, you could only listen to, but not
> see, the races.
>
Our OTB didn\'t even give you the call..Everyone would just stare at the old tv screen that was showing the odds and then the unofficial order would flash on the screen and the whole place would explode with \"I told you he was going to win\" or \"Yes, Yes, Yes\" or the sound of a garbage can getting kicked and the sound of a racing form getting thrown in the air...
Our options are great now but because of the treatment we received back in those days we have lost our huge fan base..
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
All of a sudden Persaud horses are
> running in NY, and I\'m watching...
Started about a month ago..previously couldn\'t train a horse to crap..
thats funny, I remember trying to close my ears and the sound as they posted the letters on the board, when that OTB employee came out holding that sheet to pin on the wall, everyone descending, and us trying to see before someone spoiled the fun
RICH Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> thats funny, I remember trying to close my ears
> and the sound as they posted the letters on the
> board, when that OTB employee came out holding
> that sheet to pin on the wall, everyone
> descending, and us trying to see before someone
> spoiled the fun
Ahhh yes..
The Manager used to pin up the ticket printout with the results and payout for each race...
One of the homeless guys that was always in there would switch the \"todays results\" printouts of a few races with the \"yesterdays results\" printouts from the other board and pick up the thrown away tickets of the people that came in the afternoon to check their tickets and hoped he got a winner..
that was just a horrible way to lose that one. if anyone would question cheating should watch the 9th race last thursday the 25th and watch the action of the jockey on the 4 horse in the stretch. either this idiot cant figure out where the finish line is or hes suppose to finish 3rd.
To avoid any misunderstanding-- the post at the top of this string is EXACTLY why I banned Sight. Anything anyone else says is a mischaracterization.