Anyone\'s thoughts on him? I know the bo notation isn\'t the greatest heading into the Derby but....
Am I crazy to think this horse is sitting on a move forward at a big price? He loves the Churchill surface presumably.
Or were his Gulf races so bad it\'s hard to see him moving forward a whole lot more? I know he isn\'t as fast as his stablemate\'s Sam Davis but I still think he has a move forward to get a piece.
I really think I see this as one of the horses I will use prominently in 3rd and 4th spots.
I have played him three times. When he lost to uncaptured. And his last two races.
In the Arkansas derby I played wps with good payback.
Horses I like at this moment are ORb and NI. Do not like to play favorites and Frac Daddy is going to be seriously considered in my bets, still need to take a look on the numbers and race day conditions with post positions.
Ran OK in the Kentucky Jockey club, but has been less impressive since then. Did get second in the Ark Derby behind overanalyzed, but I'm still not sold on overanalyzed as the contender that some feel him to be.
This horse has been a bit of bad boy on race days most of the winter/spring. Mind of his own when saddling and loading. Talented and always working well and was placed in an ambitious agenda becasue the trainer felt like he was up to it.
Ripped off half his quarter in his first outing at GP and acted up saddling and before loading. Some small equipment changes were made and a small throat surgical procedure was performed. After the Florida Derby Day debacle even the Owners were unsure but the Trainer insisted there was a breathing issue somehwere as he cooled the horse out. It was his insistence that convinced them to give the Arkansas Derby a shot.
The Onwers are from Montana. Nice as can be. Good horse people. Told me half of Billings bet on him Florida Derby Day so they had some \"explainin to do\" when they got back. When he ran 2nd in Arkansas to get in the Derby a text reply indicated they thought they had won the Kentucky Derby. Hell YES THEY ARE GOING!!!
These are the types of Onwers who get in and dream of running a horse in the Kentucky Derby. The primary guy was an intial investor in the Bakken Shale Region. Hence the name \"Frac\". Do these types think they will wake up Sunday and say we won....probably not. Do they know they will wake up Saturday morning and say \"we can dream\". For sure. Frac Daddy is a huge longshot. Most of Billings doesnt care. He is theirs and they will be watching......
After watching his races I don\'t think he likes to take dirt, and he hates to be crowded. If he stays out in the clear he seems to run well. But if another horse comes over on him or he\'s stuck in between horses and behind otehrs it seems like he gets intimidated.
I think he has some talent, and he shows it in the morning, but I don\'t think a 20 horse field is going to be his cup of tea unless he gets a dream trip.
I have believed ever since posting this that post position will matter for him and he needs to be outside of horses. I normally don\'t really care a whole lot about Derby Post Positions like many people unless it\'s the one hole (which is death now apparently). But in this instance, I\'ve read exactly what you said mjellish in an article about him....., that he HAS to be outside of horses to make his best run. This results in a ?w,?w trip with big numbers in the question marks most likely. But visually his TG numbers at Churchill as a 2yo looked way better than his Ark Derby to me where he paired those numbers....I believe he has a right to improve upon that Ark Derby number which puts him in contention for a minor piece. But it will be a tall order with the wide trip but I am hoping he gets an outside post so he has a chance to run his best--in which case I will use him.
I took a long look at him and a few others like him. One thing that concerns me in this field there really isn\'t a lot of early speed. And a few of the natural front runners probably don\'t want the lead in this race, or at least they aren\'t training like they do. That may mean that the field won\'t string out. Rather, the pressers and mid-pack stalkers will probably bunch up closer together. And IF that happens (and I think it somewhat likely) it will mean more traffic/kickback issues and more ground loss.
MJ,
Couldn\'t agree more. Made same exact comment in another string.
One thing I think consensus has wrong though is that Orb won\'t be compromised by slow pace. He has tactical speed and Rosario is riding like a total freak. He\'s not gonna let himself be too far back against a slow pace.
Goldensense being trained to relax but i disagree a little bit here.....i think he guarantees pressure on falling sky earlier than most realize. His last race suggests he can continue on even if takes that approach (siiting second til a bold move entering the second turn or just before)...
I see verrazano just off goldensense in third with oxbow right there as well. My problem with mylute is he makes a winning move from the backfield as john dooley is apt to say but never gets it done.
Orb will make his own pace i think. If he is good enough he will be around.
Frac daddy likes to be fairly close so if he can sit behind oxbow into a moderate pace as i envision in about 5th or so i think he can carve out a trip to give an improved effort off his previous tops.
Rarely do I see a Baffert horse taken back. I see Govenor Charlie as a key pace factor. Remember last year when lightly raced Bodemeister was thought to be compromised by the presence of Trinniberg and he ran that one off his feet.
I expect the same strategy. How else can he win. Those who expect a slow pace will be surprised. Catch me if you can. SoCal racing.
Stevens will try a winning colors, He\'ll gun for the lead and try to throttle back. When he does or when Jim\'s horse does the same. Govenor Charllie will go right by if he hasn\'t already.
I think Baffert went to Sunland for the points and purse of course but also to mask how fast this horse is. The two CA speedballs guarantee a faster pace than the east coasters want. Frac Daddy benefits.
Rosario jeez loueez he must use ???? magic!
Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Rarely do I see a Baffert horse taken back. I see
> Govenor Charlie as a key pace factor. Remember
> last year when lightly raced Bodemeister was
> thought to be compromised by the presence of
> Trinniberg and he ran that one off his feet.
>
> I expect the same strategy. How else can he win.
> Those who expect a slow pace will be surprised.
> Catch me if you can. SoCal racing.
>
> Stevens will try a winning colors, He\'ll gun for
> the lead and try to throttle back. When he does or
> when Jim\'s horse does the same. Govenor Charllie
> will go right by if he hasn\'t already.
>
> I think Baffert went to Sunland for the points and
> purse of course but also to mask how fast this
> horse is. The two CA speedballs guarantee a faster
> pace than the east coasters want. Frac Daddy
> benefits.
>
> Rosario jeez loueez he must use ???? magic!
You had me up until Frac Daddy benefits from your scenario. Why? There are a half dozen faster horses in this race who can beat Frac Daddy under any scenario and if they don\'t beat him, the early speed will. They are MUCH faster than he is. The big question in this Derby is whether or not O\'Neill can keep Goldencents from bouncing. I don\'t think that he can pair up his SA Derby, but if he does, he wins.
I say benefits, I didn\'t mean wins. A fast pace eliminates all the wanna be close up ones except the survivor.
Two days of energetic movement this week according to Welsch and then a decidedly better work than Java this morning. He sure seems like he is thriving (peaking as Welsch said earlier this week) at the right time. Is anyone starting to believe he can move forward off that pair up of his 2yo top(s) that happened at Churchill? He is still in the mix for me in the third and fourth spots.
How common is a new top in a third race in 5 weeks?
Fairmount,
The horse I like more and more out of that race is the one that beat Frac Daddy while carrying 4 more pounds and earning alot bigger TG figure and galloping out like a monster.
I liked his breeze this morning and I love his numbers and pattern going into the Derby.
I have obviously been on Orb for months and I see absolutely no reason to deviate from that view at this point and I like Overanalyze along with him alot.
Frac Daddy definitely seems to be thriving out there but let\'s not go nuts over him and forget about the horse than ran 3 TG points faster while beating him in his last race.
Best week of the year
Pattern wise, I have to believe Overanalyze is a play at value odds of probably 20-1 plus.
The TAP angle has me reeling but here\'s what I\'m thinking: If I have to play Pletcher in a p3, p4, double, (win position) it would be overanalyze and revolutionary. But I think overanalyze is far better value of the two. But wow, I obviously question Pletcher\'s horses\' abilities over this surface and I\'ve been burned by Pletcher \"value\" plays in the Derby for years and years....so this might be the year I say No way...you beat me, you beat me....but I\'m a tiny bit on the fence but down to just those two.
I\'m not excited about Frac Daddy winning----just 3rd or 4th on his best.
Before Titletown Five runs, I get the impression you might take back with Falling Sky a bit? Is this accurate? If Titletown Five makes the Derby, Fast pace is certain but if not, it\'s basically yours with Golden breathing down your throat with Verrazano close behind. I know you can\'t control the jockey or the horse, but what\'s your thoughts on Falling Sky and the pace because it\'s a huge question with this Derby.
Thanks Jim.
FM,
I think we are in the same boat with falling sky as a bunch of the others. All of the forwardly placed horses have distance concerns to varying degrees so everyone is going to be looking to sit off someone else which has the makings of a very slow early pace unless G. Stevens gets crafty and tries to sneak away. I mentioned that possibility last week here on the board and I think it\'s a very real one.
Which is why I\'m surprised no one has mentioned GC on this board. He ran the best pace and final figure prep race and will probably go off double digits.Flashback as good as any of the chalk in the race.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Not even Richiebee mentions GC! The less publicity the better, and Krigger, like Guittierez last year, will not draw a lot of play. Should be at least 10/1. Send it in.
Goldencents did NOT run the best last race figures (unless you are talking about Beyer or some other simpleton figures), not by a longshot, the Wood and FL Derby were both better on TG and the SA Derby compares more with the Ark Derby.
He also did NOT run the best pace figures, unless you are only talking about early pace and completely ignoring late pace. He has never cracked 100 on BRIS late pace, whereas most of the main competitors have. His Brohammer %Energy use among the highest in the field, consistently in the 52-53% range.
I don\'t think he has any shot regardless, but if the track plays anything like it did last night tiring out horses that don\'t conserve energy late, he REALLY doesn\'t have a shot.
Tread....there were predictions of rain yesterday so I have a feeling the Track was dried out and loose. This has happened before at CD pre-Derby where Maintenence is trying to get ahead if the wratger chanve. The result is impacts the racing surface as is.
We debated it here the day Chilluki broke her Maiden going 4.5 and got a 109 Byer and like a 2 or 3 on Ragozin. I am Church now Praying for a fair surface.
Completely agreed on the surface last night, it is far too early to pass judgement on the new track crew, they obviously had left the track overly dry because there was supposed to be heavy rain starting at 6pm that really only ever came in as a light trickle.
That said, there is also rain forecast for Saturday as well, which to me means a possibility of the same sort of thing to happen on Saturday, not to mention keeping an eye on Friday as they may have it dryer than normal in anticipation of Saturday rain.
And if they do get rain Saturday, if it comes early the track may be a slower, drying out surface by Derby time. No matter how you slice it, I think there is an extremely high possibility that the track is not nearly as speed favoring as it was in Cali for the SA Derby, and when you look at how the track was when GC finished 4th the race before and his running style/pace stats, this spells doom for this horse.
Or.certain spots in the Track that could be better than others. There was Derby Trial years back that Alex Hassinger won from far back and Baffert had Straight Man and Wayne had someone similar. They both complained about how dry loose and.cuppy the Track was (rain was being expected) and said had they known they would have Scratched.
Smart Jocks will find the place to be. Like Borel has.done.
I\'ve looked at 4 different speed numbers-Thoro-Graph, Ragozin, Beyer & BRIS and I\'m amazed at the differences in the Florida & Santa Anita Derbies that the 2 sheet producers have come up with versus the 2 Past Performance producers. The PPs say the SA Derby was the fastest winning prep race. Both sheets have it middle of the pack. Meanwhile Orb\'s Florida Derby looks mediocre on Beyer figure & even more mediocre on the usually higher BRIS (both are 97) but is clearly the fastest winning final prep figure on both sheets. Also BRIS is out on an island rating Revolutionary\'s LAD at 105 while Beyer is at 93. Both sheets are more in line with Beyer on the LAD.
Overall, I\'m going to trust Thoro-Graph the most. I\'m hoping that I can properly interpret the patterns with help from the Thoro-Patterns. If I\'m interpreting them correctly, Orb has a great shot while Verrazano has a significantly lower probability of being able to have a winning race.
I\'m sure TGJB will cover this in the seminar, but you need to remember that those thoro-patterns are overly genericized and an attempt at one-size-fits-all, which isn\'t always the case. There are top-off-offs and there are top-off-offs, each can tell a very different story. The fact that his most recent \"off\" was actually a forward move and a race where he very likely was not fully extended/cranked up would hint that a return to top is much more possible than the normal top-off-off pattern would indicate. Certainly much more favorable than an off-off where the numbers are the same or continuing to move backwards.
Joe B,
t let
Agree with you on Goldencents in that he did visually seem to run the best last prep and he certainly had by far the best early pace figures in that race, of any other top prep.
On this board, he looks like slow, but let\'s not start on the slow TG figures in California routine.
Tread,
It stretches the imagination to watch the Santa Anita Derby and the Arkansas Derby, look at the final times, look at the times of the other races that day, and conclude Overyanalyze is faster than Goldencents. (and yes, I know TGJB made the figures, you didn\'t, but it doesn\'t seem feasible to me, at all. Agree with you on the track at Churchill. If the track stays like it was last night, then a Giacomo type can win. A slow, grinder. No excuses for the weather. Yes, by the end of the night, that was an excuse, but the track was dead from race 1 onwards, and with Pletcher talking the previous day about the dead rail and keeping workders away from it.
These are crazy thoughts but....
1. Any chance that Vyjack is forwardly placed to the extent he is unexpectedly in the top 2 heading down the backside? His running style has varied a bit. I\'m really interested to hear JB\'s seminar thoughts on this one given his last two figs. Watching last year\'s seminar really raised a lot of points I hadn\'t considered looking at this year\'s figs. I\'d recommend it for anyone that has already purchased the Derby/Oaks sheets....bet it gives you strong clues about JB\'s thoughts on this year\'s entrants especially Vyjack.
2. Any chance that Will Take Charge who in my mind is schizophrenic with his running style goes right to the front rather than Oxbow? His Springboard Mile is worth a watch if you think this isn\'t a possibility.
I don\'t envision either as likely but I do think either is possible. Others\' thoughts on these two?
Vyjack is the only entrant that matches the exact pattern that has been the most successful. The obvious concern is the mucas/anti biotics treatment following the Wood. Not as close to the race as Smooth Air\'s (alas alas...150:1...alas) but same type of issue.
Goldencents got the faster TG figure, just but not by much and much different than Beyer or BRIS. There was one figure maker who had Overanalyze faster, but it wasn\'t Jerry.
Why not start on the slow TG figures in California? Was last year an anomaly in your opinion?
The big dilemma with Goldencents, from my point of view, is trying to decide whether or not he will bounce off his big last number. Most likely he will bounce, but he\'s a contender if he doesn\'t.
Putting aside your apparent need to discuss homemade figures in a venue frequented by people who use professional ones, if you look at the TG sheets for last years Derby you will see a) the California horses were as a group the fastest going in, and b) did not run new tops in the Derby, which you would think they would have if we had their prior figures slow. We didn\'t like IHA, but it had nothing to do with thinking he was too slow. Check the seminar, in the archives here.
What makes a figure \'professional?\'
Boy do we disagree on frac daddy.He is a throwout for me and I am not crazy about IMLDAY either.Orb is a dangerous horse in that he could go forward again so I am not dismissing him at all.
The fact that people who make a living in this industry (and others) are willing to pay for them. The fact that they are made by people who do it for a living.
Completely agree Vinny. Also surprised at the similarities between Three Rings sheet and IMLD. Sure IMLD is faster but the sheets look similar and I\'m hoping for a similar fate.
Wrongly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Completely agree Vinny. Also surprised at the
> similarities between Three Rings sheet and IMLD.
> Sure IMLD is faster but the sheets look similar
> and I\'m hoping for a similar fate.
Similar fate? Hope you\'re just talking her Derby performance...the 1999 Mother Goose was a tragic end to a game filly.
Meanwhile, who now will take the 20th spot in the field? Tiz a Minister? A filly? Hornung\'s horse?
Irony choices (for fun):
Departing (Ill derby winner wins and makes for an interesting trophy presentation
Baffert\'s Oaks filly - \"It was the easier spot\"
Uncaptured - KJC winner, another canadian 2yo champ
Slewzapper
I was referring to Three Rings finish in the Derby, wouldn\'t wish her demise on any horse or their connections.
With all due respect, and I do mean RESPECT, the people who make BRIS speed numbers are also professional people who make a living at this. And the real art in all this is one\'s interpretation of the numbers, from wherever they evolve or are produced. For my part and I say this in all humility, it is my interpretation of and adjustment to the BRIS figures that helps me arrive at betting decisions, not the numbers alone. On their own, they are mostly (but not completely) meaningless. You have to watch a lot of races to make adjustments that mean something. That\'s what I do. I\'m an amateur for sure, in the best sense of the word (Latin roots) --- I love handicapping as much as anyone on this site.
I have another question for you and ask this with respect: Have you always taken horse to horse and race to race comparisons into the numbers that you make? Have you done this at the same rate over all these years? Have you been doing more of this in recent years?
I ask this because I am confused about what you did with Dreaming of Julia\'s last race.
Alm-- Okay, now I have some time.
The BRIS figures, like the Equibase figures, are automated, using pars and averages. They are not professional figures-- they are add-ons for a company that makes its money other ways (mostly pedigrees), and when dealing with handicappers is dealing with a much less sophisticated and smaller betting segment of the market (in general, and meaning bets less money, not a comment about you). It\'s not hard to create a program that can make grossly accurate speed figures, but that\'s all it does, aside from the issues of wind, ground and weight that differentiate speed from performance figures.
I\'m not sure what you are asking about DOJ. We are doing more computer checks circuit to circuit (the right time to use averages, large sample studies), but that had nothing to do with DOJ\'s figure.
If you are asking me have we always use the \"projection\" method (a terrible name Crist came up with that confuses everyone and makes them think we simply assign numbers we want to give out)-- yes. When you set up your data base to start you use pars because you have nothing else to work with, and develop a crude data base to work with that way, of figures for each horse. At that point you throw the pars away-- you don\'t use the average 10 claimer, you use the horses in THIS 10 claimer, who can be faster or slower than average. That\'s all the projection method is.
An example of why you don\'t use them can be found in Beyer\'s figures for SoCal, and probably BRIS as well, since evidently they have that circuit too fast as well. A 25 claimer (or any claimer) in SoCal is far softer than average-- the fields are smaller, made up mostly of Cal breds, and people out there have a lot of money so 25k is nothing. Claiming prices there are greatly inflated. This can happen in NY too, but a) there are a lot of feeder tracks, which doesn\'t happen in SoCal due to geography, and b) unfortunately there are a lot more drugs being used here, making those races tougher to win, and forcing people down in class. Beyer said (correctly) at the 2004 DRF Expo that it is wrong to use pars-- but in talking to one of the guys who makes figures for them it became clear they do anyway.
If you use those pars it will not just affect the claiming races, but all the other figures for the day, including stakes, since all the figures are based on a variant that is based on the claimers.
Another problem with pars is it makes figures useless for historical comparisons. If you use 10 for par for a 10 claimer, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy-- pars make you pull figures to par, by definition. If horses are getting faster (or slower) over time you can\'t see it.
This is the most arrogant, politically incorrect name for a racehorse that I can remember...little surprised that New Yorkers aren\'t more sensitive to this issue due to recent fracking threats to their water table...or is all of this just old news?...sure, I\'m more interested in who might win the Derby...I\'m just saying.
are you serious? Threat to the water table?. What Cuomo is doing is a crime aginst NY and the communities that need it most.
Jerry, I\'m a small time lurker on this board mostly. But this is something that has come up several times. Is it POSSIBLE that the reason horses (or TG figs) have gotten faster is due to the projection method? I\'ve seen you say several times that it is unlikely to have most of the field run bad, especially in a G1. But it is still possible. The cumulative effect of not letting thst ever happen would mean inflated figures, no?
There are several answers to this. One is that regardless, what we know for sure is that the alternative (pars) makes figures unusable for comparing generations, by definition, so even if that\'s possible all you can do is try.
Another is that figures for one race are made in the larger context of a day-- lots of data points. If you break a race out there has to be good reason-- meaning not just that it looks wrong tied to the day, but because its clear what it should be. That\'s hard to explain to someone who hasn\'t made figures using a serious data base.
But yes, figure makers have tendencies. And in some cases blind spots. You have to keep from going off the rails