So, I got to spend the Morning at Churchill this am.
Very sunny but very chilly morning.
For folks who haven\'t been to CD backside, there are various \"gaps\" where the horses go from the backside onto the track. The track folks typically call them the \"baffert gap\" or the \"Lucas gap\" based on which big name trainers barns are closest to those gaps.
For the best view of the breezes, you need to be on the front side. For the best/only view of the horses coming onto and off of the track, you need to be on the backside.
I always go to the backside as I like to see the horses coming off of the track and see who is holding their weight well and who is breathing heavy coming off of the track after the breeze, etc.
I was by the gap where all of the pletcher horses came on and off so I got a good look at the 5 pletchers and normandy invasion. I saw all of others on the track but I do not have really have a strong opinion on any others since I didn\'t see up close.
The two by far that made the most favorable impression were Verazzano and palice malice. Verazzano couldnt have blown out a match after his breeze and he is carrying weight so well. He is the best looking horse I have seen since rock hard ten and he is thriving right now. Palice malice is the other who really impressed me in terms of the weight he is holding and his coat considering what he just went through.
The two least favorable impressions were Normandy invasion and revolutionary. NI is a small frail looking horse who doesn\'t carry alot of weight. Tough for me to back a horse who\'s that slight making his way through a 20 horse field. As of today, he\'s off all my tickets. Revolutionary is another very light framed horse and he was blowing hard after his work. I wasn\'t that impressed. Overanalyze definitely lost some weight compared to last weekend when i saw him in Arkansas but that is normal and i will be anxious to see if he regains the weight by next weekend when I am back. Charming kitten looks like a typical turf horse so nothing much else to say there.
Hope this is helpful to folks. As i always remind people, don\'t put all your eggs in one basket and rule a horse out on what anyone is saying about how they look and train. I just try to find the ones I like anyway and confirm they seem to be coming into the race the right way.
Thanks for the up close observations. Very insightful.
Thx for sharing those thoughts Jim, and reports like that are exactly the reason I just don\'t see anyway Verrazano does not run his race, unless there is some underlying injury that is remaining very well hidden that ends up impacting his race.
I get that running a big negative number so early usually spells doom for a horse, but there have been some cases where it does not, like Street Sense, Big Brown, and Smarty. At least in terms of being able to do something big in the Derby. If Verrazano runs his race, no one else will be close.
Normandy Invasion has not seemed well since shipping to Churchill last week.
Well let me ask you this, will you play a horse that \"doesn\'t look good\" but has a very nice pattern?By the way I don\'t like NI or VZ.
That\'s the right question, or one of them. It would obviously help to know how the horse looked in the past, too.
VP,
I wanted to get back to you on your question.
There are obviously alot of factors involved but I would say 3 things
1) no, I would not play a horse that doesn\'t \"look good\" with a very nice pattern as long as I am making that judgement for myself and not trusting someone else. I can live with my own error in judgement, I can\'t live with someone else\'s so if I like a horse, I tend to ignore most of the noise around the horse but if I have a chance to see a horse myself and form an opinion, I might eliminate that horse based on a physical
2) I would not rule a horse that isn\'t \"moving well\" as I have said a number of times on the board because vets can do alot of legal things to help a horse move better (I always use the Ice Box example) but I will absolutely rule out a horse that is as small and light as Normandy Invasion given his running style and the size of the field
3) If it was a small field, I would have no problem with his size or if he was a more forwardly placed horse, I wouldn\'t have a big problem with him but, just guessing, I would say Normandy Invasion weighs at least 100 pds less than the average horse in the Ky. Derby. I just don\'t see any way he makes it through from the back of the pack without getting bumped and jostled many times and if he encounters any kind of bumping at all, he\'s going to get impacted by that given how light he is.
can he win? sure he can, any of them can as a 20 horse field can and often does produce chaos and I think he\'s a nice horse who could be really good in a race like the Belmont as I have said on the board before but I am looking for reasons to eliminate horses when I think about this race and I will eliminate a very small closer in a 20 horse field everytime and live with it if I am wrong
hope this helps
Jim,
Always appreciate your input. I like Normandy\'s sheet and don\'t think coming from where he is that he will get bumped too much. most of the bumping occurs while getting position and out of the gate. he will likely drop back out of the gate. He will see the wall of horses in front of him and will need to find the path through or around. might be a tough trip but I don\'t expect a lot of bumping.
George
\"might be a tough trip but I don\'t expect a lot of bumping\"
Just
It\'s not known as the Roller Derby for nothing,derby is rarely run without lots of bumping and banging.Often dismissed is what Jim brings up about physicality.You will RARELY see the top outfits, e.g. Baffy,TAP with many smallish type young ones in their barn.To a degree,size matters,only freaks transcend.
There is likely to be 5+horses totally eliminated within the first 1/16th of mile in the Derby. Just have to hope its not yours.
Mike
this is fantastic information!! Thank you. I wanted to tell you that I took a Keeneland trip last week and was in Louisville early to watch some horses. I want your opinion on Black Onyx. I didnt think much of his race record but I was startled by his appearance. I dont think he looks like rock hard ten but he is a good size colt for sure and to me he looked gorgeous. Reminds me in stature of Kris S or Storm Treasure. Kind of like a buff George Clooney of racehorses. Will he have that late run?
I dont think I am in your league when it comes to a horses appearance but I would love to know your take on how this horse looks. He has been at louisville all april.
Miff,
totally agree but if Normandy drops back out of the gate it will avoid most of the bumping that is going on which tends to occur in that first 1/8. I see him & Java\'s War not dealing with most of the bumping as they will not be trying to get that early position out of the gate.
George
Hey Pizza,
thanks for that
please don\'t give me too much credit. there are people (like my racing manager for one) that forgot more in the 24 hrs about how to evaluate physical appearances than I will ever know.
I didn\'t get a chance to see Black Onyx over the weekend but I will be at CD all week next week and will definitely let everyone know if he stands out at all.
good luck
No opinion on this, but I would be interested in seeing a list of horses eliminated by trouble in the Derby over the last 10 years or so. Lookin at Lucky and who else? And any who overcame it?
George,
Only trying to suggest that its a more difficult task for a smaller horse to sustain a roughouse trip. There were many averaged sized, smaller horses who did very well at the top level.
Good Luck
Mike
JB,
Since they went to the 20 horse format, there isnt enough room to accomodate both gates without post 1 and 2 runners heading smack into the rail if they break and go straight. With that,you have the inside angling outward and of course, all the outside angling in to avoid being caught wide on the turn.
Don\'t have numbers but you will always hear some connections saying they got sawed off, pinched or whatever right out of the gate. It would be interesting to see the slow motion head ons of the past derbies to see just what damage is done early on.
Mike
I\'m not asking about numbers, just a list of names. Someone somewhere presumably has looked at tapes or chart comments, and if I can get a list I can pull sheets for them.
Union Rags was another steam horse that could be eliminated by what he was physically and running style wise (i.e. big, long striding horse that couldn\'t afford to get stopped and restart).
I truly believe Revoltionary is the same. He\'s a really nice horse but overcoming traffic trouble in the Gotham in a relatively small field and doing it in the Derby against these types are two completely different things. He stayed out of trouble in the La. Derby by taking the overland route and that\'s not a viable option in this race against these horses.
He\'s a tall, light framed long striding horse, not the type I see Calvin doing his thing with.
Again, could be wrong and he could win but we have to make choices in this race and I am happy to live with that choice. Other issue as I mentioned is that he was blowing pretty hard yesterday after a relatively pedestrian 4f breeze so that\'s another mark against him in my book.
Archarcharch from down on the rail got bounced around pretty good and was eliminated by traffic trouble after the bumping caused his saddle to slip and then he had the unfortunate injury in the middle of all that.
for this race, give me the faster horses on the TG with tactical speed and I will live with that choice anytime.
Barbaro
Smarty
Big Brown
Super Saver
I\'ll Have Another
What do they all have in common? All were fast on the TG (not necessarily the fastest mind you but with a figure(s) that put them right there) and they all had tactical speed.
This approach won\'t win you every Derby (and I certainly didn\'t have all of these) but that\'s going to give you the best chance to win this race
There may have been, but I do not recall any derby winner getting roughed up out of the gate and winning.
Anyone?
Jim,
thanks for this info on revolutionary. Mike Welsch gave him the work of the day yesterday. I don\'t think he was on the backside after the work so your info is always valuable. i wish I could find a horse with tactical speed that I like at the price. I know you are a big Orb fan but from what I am gathering he could end up favored over Verrazzano assuming posts are not a factor.
George
\"i.e. big, long striding horse\"
Hi Jim,
Nice win the other day,a wire no less. Did you just take a secret swipe at the big long striding Verranzano. For a big horse he left the gate like a shot in the Wood,though stumbled slightly in TAMPA, seems tactical but the break can be very unkind.
Me hears concern about the draw for this one who reportedly may not thrive inside or in and among horses.
Good luck
Mike
\"i wish I could find a horse with tactical speed that I like at the price.\"
What about Lucky? fast, tractable, and twice (at least...maybe closer to three times) the price of O & V. Yes pattern a concern but think in this case number power trumps pattern. Certainly does for me at the price anyway. Also...5 weeks coming in and pointed to this (missed FoY by design) and if you squint he\'s only had 2 preps as a 3yo.
If my memory serves me correctly wasnt it Gemologist who won the pretty parade last year and also looked like he could run around twice based on a workout?? Yes it was...great pattern too... Barely beat home Trinniberg... Again as our host says, its all relative. One of the reasons Maggie Wolfendale is great paddock analyst, she keeps meticulous notes on how horses she has seen before look comparatively. I enjoy everyones sharing their opinion because it helps in other races aside from the derby. Its a rodeo...
Hah,
thanks Mike
couple interesting points you make here.
First of all, a funny story that the only bet I won on Tampa Bay Derby day was that I bet my racing manager that Verazzano would break poorly.
There\'s been alot of discussion on the board over the years about how it seems as if horses coming off huge numbers almost always break very badly and Verazzano was the lastest in a long line of examples.
BTW, can I get some action now on how Dreaming of Julia will break in the Oaks? She may win by 10 anyway but I don\'t like her chances of breaking well.
Anyway, the issue with Verazzano though is that he\'s got such terrific tactical speed and he\'s so dam big that I don\'t think a half a step out of the gate is going to make anywhere near the difference for him that it would for some of the others. If someone bumps him, they are more likely to fall over than they are knock him off stirde.
Other than Orb, I don\'t know who else I like just yet but I am having a harder time dismissing Verazzano than some other folks.
Was not overly impressed with Verranzano\'s work yesterday, nor was Welch, not that it was bad.Would love to hear what Gary Stevens felt yesterday working V(Is GS the backup rider for Verranzano, should Johhny V not make it?)
For the blowhards trumpeting clean racing overseas, poor Shik Mo!
22 Apr 2013 13:20
11 Mahmood Al Zarooni-trained horses suspended following positive test results
As part of the \'testing in training\' sampling programme conducted by the British Horseracing Authority (BHA), on 9th April 2013 samples were obtained from 45 horses trained by Mahmood Al Zarooni at Moulton Paddocks Stables. This afternoon the BHA has received written advice from the Horseracing Forensic Laboratory that upon analysis 11 of these samples had present in them prohibited substances as laid out below:
Ethylestranol:
Desert Blossom
Certify
Fair Hill
Ghostflower
Orkney Island
Sweet Rose
Valley Of Queens
Stanozolol:
Artigiano
Bathrat Amal
Opinion Poll
Restraint Of Trade
Adam Brickell, Director of Integrity, Legal and Risk for the BHA, said:
\"Ethylestranol and stanozolol are anabolic steroids and therefore Prohibited Substances under British Rules of Racing, at any time - either in training or racing. Mahmood Al Zarooni has been advised of the analysts\' findings and has been visited by an Investigating Officer.
\"A Disciplinary Panel enquiry into the analysts\' findings will take place at the first available opportunity, confirmed details of which will follow when available. The horses which have produced positive tests will also not be permitted to race with immediate effect and for an extended period of time. As part of the ongoing process a decision will be made as to what period this suspension will be imposed for.
\"The BHA understand the importance of this process being carried out as quickly as possible because of implications for betting markets
Regarding Verrazano\'s and Revolutionary\'s works yesterday. The workmate of the former had run a top of a 0.00. The workmate of the latter had run a top of 6.50. Now obviously no one is running their tops in workouts but I think TAP knew exactly what he was doing in pair up each horse with it\'s respective workmates. Everyone getting so excited by her keeping up with him...well she ought to. She\'s fast. Which R\'s workmate is not.
Good point Phil, but should Verranzano work ugly next week and Orb wow,look for groundswell for Orb with the Shug factor in play.Orb could go fav.
Definitely agree there Mike. And I\'m by no means saying he\'s a lock or anywhere close. Just something I had noticed. All the sounds coming from Shug seem super positive...but of course they almost all sound super positive leading up to the big day don\'t they.
Phil,
Good info. As far as IMLD. The 2 big numbers may have set him back although the last number is still a winning derby number. Just can\'t see him moving forward for the derby.
George
Wow. I guess that means they went to his yard-- OOC testing.
It\'s funny, not 20 minutes ago I was talking to someone and mentioned how absolutely nobody knows what kind of testing is going on in Dubai, and whether it\'s a level playing field.
Shug one of the most understated trainers in the game and for him to be jawing a bit, you must pay attention.Of Easy Goer he said \" he\'s a nice horse\"
I think that happened in Newmarket, not Dubai.
I know. But if they\'re using something here...
Phil, awesome info, thanks for that.
I knew Todd said she was a nice horse and I know she\'s pointing for a stake on Derby Day but I didn\'t realize she was that fast.
thank you very much
The elitists better change the usual \"rest of the world\" verbiage from their future stumping on the \"clean up the game\" trail.
Indeed! Do you know when they started OOC in the UK? I know they did a little in Ireland some years ago, but I think that was a \"special\", and not a regularly occuring event.
If you are looking for a large physical horse, you might look past George Clooney, buff or not.
They train off farms in many overseas venues.When the elitists kept jawing about the rest of the world, it was pretty widely known that \"stuff\" went on at farms overseas, just like here.
Had a friendly exchange with Barry Irwin about that once but he did not answer that question, sure he knows better than most.Back in the 80\'s I was alerted by an Aussie colleague about stuff going on at farms down under and europe from where I was buying horses.
Poor Sheik Mo!
Al Zarooni has admitted that he was responsible for the administration of the prohibited substances.
Godolphin racing manager Simon Crisford said: "This is a dark day for Godolphin. We are all shocked by what has happened".
"His Highness Sheikh Mohammed was absolutely appalled when he was told and this is completely unacceptable to him. We will await the outcome of the BHA inquiry before taking any further internal action.
"Sheikh Mohammed has instructed me to begin an urgent review of all of our procedures and controls. That is already underway and we will take advice from the BHA in completing it."
Al Zarooni said: "I deeply regret what has happened. I have made a catastrophic error. Because the horses involved were not racing at the time, I did not realise that what I was doing was in breach of the rules of racing. I can only apologise for the damage this will cause to Godolphin and to racing generally."
Yes. No \"backside\" at the European tracks. Just a bunch of horse vans showing up early morning on race days.
I must say it is pretty shocking doing a raid on the Sheik\'s farm. Not that they shouldn\'t, of course. Just surprising that they would have the stones to do that to someone who could put a big hole in graded fields by taking his toys elsewhere.
I wonder if Zarooni was ever a jumps jockey. He knows how to take a fall.
Trainer had best stay in England.
Ferdinand drew post one and Shoemaker lost his irons when knocked into the rail then rallied stoutly to return some $38! bbb
Bell,
Small field no? only 16!
Mike
Wonder if NY Regulators are heading for Sheik Mo\'s Greentree Training Center at the SPA?
They tested 45 horses and got 11 positives (24%). Apparently the raid came on the heels of 2 positives for Al Zarooni in the last twelve months.
http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=1054047
Someone said that Verrazzo is a huge horse. He\'s not. He\'s good-sized but not overly tall or heavy. Think Todd said he\'s 16.1. So good-sized but not Zenyatta (now, that\'s huge).