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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: miff on April 18, 2013, 05:25:10 AM

Title: Itsmyluckyday
Post by: miff on April 18, 2013, 05:25:10 AM
Worked 1.43.10 for mile at Calder, last half like 49.Mike Welch said track chewed up and not many faster mile works in last 15 years at Calder.

IMLD worked 1.46 prior to his Fla Derby race loss to Orb.IMLD will have one more work at Calder before heading for CD late next week.

Tough read.
Title: Re: Itsmyluckyday
Post by: ajkreider on April 18, 2013, 06:16:52 AM
He will place prominently in some of my super tickets.  Past form suggests he needs a race off a layoff . Showed pretty good gate speed getting position in the Holy Bull.  Has the figs to be a player.  And may be around 12-1.  

Don\'t think I can play him on top, though.
Title: Re: Itsmyluckyday
Post by: miff on April 18, 2013, 08:39:36 AM
\"He's bigger and stronger than he's ever been," said Plesa. "The 62 days between the Holy Bull and Florida Derby was just what we needed to do. He's responded very favorably and is on top of his game right now\"



....not exactly what several who have been eyeballing him for the past few months at Calder have said.
Title: Re: Itsmyluckyday
Post by: touchgold on April 18, 2013, 08:42:36 AM
plesa before florida derby...

I don't want any extenuating circumstances to come in the way of everybody's best race. I just want everybody to have a fair shot. I've got a lot of confidence in my horse, as I'm sure as everybody else does, and I don't want anything to come in the way of it.

"I just want the best horse to win. I don't want anybody to have to come out of that race – me, Todd, Shug or any of the others in the race – and say, 'This happened to me; that happened to me. I just want everybody to have a fair shot at the race.

"I've got a horse that could not be feeling any better. He's just tearing down the barn. He's a very, very happy horse. He's been away from the races for a little while and hasn't missed a day of training, hasn't missed a work. How do I feel? If I'd have known it would have gone this smooth, I would have been so happy."
Title: Re: Itsmyluckyday
Post by: miff on April 18, 2013, 08:47:26 AM
In the next 2 weeks you will here at least 10 trainers say:

1.His work was perfect, just what we wanted

2.He\'s better now than before any race

3.I wouldn\'t trade places with anybody
Title: Re: Itsmyluckyday
Post by: TGJB on April 18, 2013, 08:47:28 AM
I was wondering when someone was going to get around to this guy.
Title: Re: Itsmyluckyday
Post by: miff on April 18, 2013, 08:48:40 AM
Simple, is he or is he not over the top?
Title: Re: Itsmyluckyday
Post by: RICH on April 18, 2013, 05:44:34 PM
simple, he has the number to win, with nice timing, does anyone keep track of those calder works on that track, check the BC over the yrs, I said enough
Title: Re: Itsmyluckyday
Post by: alm on April 19, 2013, 05:20:45 AM
Every horse can be evaluated in a number of different ways and IMLD is no different.  He ran the fastest prep race of any 3yo, in the GP Derby, and deserves respect for his Holy Bull, but his 2-turn races were both a lot slower than those of a sizeable group of other Derby prospects.  He didn\'t beat much in the HB and a better horse beat him in the FD.

I might get excited about Plesa\'s 1-mile workouts, but it didn\'t help this dude in the Fla Derby and I can\'t bet that it will help him in Louisville.  That\'s what it\'s about....why should I bet a horse?  IMLD is not moving forward going to the Derby.  Others are.  Look elsewhere.
Title: Re: Itsmyluckyday
Post by: big18741 on April 19, 2013, 05:34:23 AM
Itsmyluckyday worked a mile at Calder in 143 and change back in November prior to an also ran finish in the Delta Jackpot.

I\'m not going to make a decision on this horse based on works.
Title: Re: Itsmyluckyday
Post by: Fairmount1 on April 19, 2013, 06:53:31 PM
His Jackpot was off an approx. 62 day layoff.  As pointed above, he seems to need a race under his belt to fire his best effort.  He will have approx. 33 days into the Derby.  With that said, at Delta, Goldensense just destroyed him on the front end, MyLute passed him like he was standing still through the 2nd turn, and Bern Identity passed him in the stretch drive.  Maybe he needed a race.  But with that workout going into it, the amount of money on the line plus Plesa shipped there, that race just says Ouch about his ability to ship and/or beat quality competition. His claim to fame on beating someone is Shanghai Bobby ran his best races at 2; he lost to Orb in Fla Derby and lost to Charming Kitten in the Dania Beach.  He did beat Clearly Now a quality horse but that horse seems best sprinting.    

His two fast ones at Gulf are really intriguing and the timing of his races is very interesting.  But I just can\'t endorse him for the win position.