tgjb, if I recall you have a futures bet on him...being that you liked him in risen star, I would assume a second in the louisiana derby have have him looking ok at a big price...and you get rosie
Mylute is absolutely the wise guy horse of this Derby
the number of messages I got about his last workout and now with Rosie in the irons makes it a lock that this horse goes off at about half the odds he should
he\'s run 2 really good figures so he\'s a really nice horse, my only point is that he will offer absolutely no value
meanwhile, there\'s a pony that has run 2 negative figures who no one is talking about (and who may go off at longer odds than the likes of Mylute)
I have a feeling TGJB will have something to say about this before all is said and done :)
really? you think he will be an underlay?
post aside, I think he will be at least 15-1
as of april 8 he was 35-1 at wynn.
Rosie will kill a price.
Look at Pants on Fire from 2011.
I have some at 133-1 on Mylute so no worries on top but 10f\'s might be more than he wants.Bridgmohan gave that horse two really good trips in large fields in Louisiana and worked him in the AM.She isn\'t gonna ride him any better.
Had to be an owner call.
Will respectfully disagree Jim, unless we have different definitions of \"wise guy horse\". Yes, I am guessing that Rosie on board will keep the win price on this horse down to maybe 15-1 instead of the 25-1 to he might have been. I guess that could be an \"underlay\".
But \"wise guy\" horse will be either Normandy Beach or Orb, by my definition. Guessing that Normandy will be 6 or 7 to 1, versus the 12-1 he should be. And I am starting to think Orb will go favored over Verrazano. Hard to find anybody that likes Verrazano.
Quick thing about those \"win odds\" in the Derby. Many on this board are likely horizontal or vertical wagerers. Those \"underlaid\" horses like Pants on Fire, are never bet like that in the exotics. I was live to Pants on Fire, who went off really short in the win pool, but was easily 15-1 in the double and pick-3 pools. Similarly, Super Saver was 15-1 in the Oaks/Derby double and similarly long in the doubles/pick-3\'s/pick-4\'s.
all great points Jim, I think you are spot on across the board.
we just have different defintion of \"wise guy\" that\'s all
I just use it to talk about the horse that really shouldn\'t be getting that much attention that is getting alot of attention at the windows
Both NI and Orb deserve alot of attention, albeit maybe not as much as they will get.
Jimbo66 and Jim C., (and others)
I think Verrazano goes favored, Goldensense 2nd choice, Orb 3rd and NI fourth choice and all four of them under 8-1. I still see Mylute at 20-1 or so but supposedly being used a lot by people in the tris and exactas. But with 20 in the field, I dont\' think Mylute will be an underlay in the tri.
Regardless of who goes favored, do you agree with those first four choices as the public\'s choices?
I\'ve began my video review of every horse\'s races I do every year. One of my first observations is this: Goldensense and Verrazano run almost identical type races--more than I realized. Not sure it matters in the grand scheme of things. Do you guys agree with this?
I think it goes V/O/G/Rev/NI. So yes pretty close. But a lot depends on NI\'s appearance on track. Hearing rumours he looks bad (lost weight). Can\'t see the top 4 all being less than 8:1. Feel it\'s closer to: V5, O5, G8, Rev9, NI10. Rosie and Calvin factors for MyL and Rev will depress, just a question of how much.
As of April 15 My lute was 40-1 at Wynn. Black Onyx and Frac Daady also 40-1. Arkansas Derby winner Overanalyze 20-1. Verrazano 9/2 favorite with Orb 5-1 and Goldencents 8-1.
Fairmount,
Just wanted to make sure I acknowledged your question.
I am no good at estimating where odds will go off so I don\'t even try to do it anymore
I think we have to wait to see how they all look come Derby week so see who the real buzz horses are.
I will be on the Churchill backstretch on Saturday and Sunday morning to watch Falling Sky and Swift Warrior train before heading up to Lexinton to be there for River Rocks\' run in the Lexington so I will definitely try to see if I can get a good look at some of the Derby horses this weekend to give us a baseline for how they look coming into the race.
As an aside to that, I think having some kind of baseline on these horses is pretty critical. It\'s very hard to look at a horse for the first time during Derby week and be able to conclude \"that horse is doing great\". If you haven\'t seen them before, you can\'t tell if they are better or worse than before their last race.
For example, Verazzano is an absolutely georgeous physical specimen. In the paddock of the Tampa Bay Derby, he looked as good as a horse can look. He\'s so good looking at his best that it\'s totally possible that we get to Derby week and people think he looks \"really good\" but in reality, he isn\'t doing as well as he was when he\'s in top form (not saying this is the case by the way, just a hypothetical)
Another example of the importance of having a baseline was how Bodemeister looked/moved on the track heading into last year\'s Derby. As you might recall, very knowledgable guys like Welsh were very bearish on how he was moving on the track during Derby week. However, that was just how the horse always moved. He was an unsound horse who had a tremendous amount of talent. he wasn\'t moving any differently during Derby week than he was before the Ark Derby when he ran a huge figure.
So, main point we can only put so much weight on \"how they look\" during derby week without having some baseline
The forgotten Itsmyluckyday has reportedly looked a bit tucked up before the Fla Derby.Mike Welch observing at Calder regularly.IMLD a key player if not over the top,did not like the manner in which he was run over by Orb after sitting a perfect trip,weak performance relative to his prior 2 big races.Tough call.
Fairmount,
Guessing Derby odds is pretty tough. But I will never ever post on this board again if Goldencents goes off a shorter price than Orb. That ain\'t happening in this lifetime.
I think Verrazano and Orb go off close to the same, somewhere around 9-2.
I think Normandy Invasion goes off 3rd choice.
After that I don\'t know. I think Goldencents drifts, but could still be 4th choice. Nobody thought he could get 1 1/8, now he has to go 1 1/4.
Jim
jimbo66 Wrote:
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> Fairmount,
>
>
>
> After that I don\'t know. I think Goldencents
> drifts, but could still be 4th choice. Nobody
> thought he could get 1 1/8, now he has to go 1
> 1/4.
>
> Jim
Am I missing something?? A couple of posters have knocked the into Mischief breeding as not being able to go long but it doesn\'t seem like they are having problems stretching out so why is that the perception..There is only 1 year of history on them and I know i\'ve seen a few do well going long so why the perception?