Wait Overanalyze beat nobody?? :)
Remsen looks true to me.
Beau,
Correct, the Remsen was validated as a fraud as far as figures go.Overanalyze ran an 88 Beyer in the Ark Derby. Ground may save his performance fig.Also correct that he did not beat anything in light of X\'s by Baffert and Lukas runners.Cov\'s gutty horse against track profile yesterday in routes.
No top 3 Remsen runner matched their fig yet, NI close.
Mike
P.S. Bluegrass equally slow Beyer 89
It\'s pretty tough to know what to do with this race other than dismiss it. To Jimbo\'s and other\'s dismay, I\'ve been in favor of excusing a long list of \"excuse\" horses from FG this winter, and so far they have all come back to run really well when given a chance to actually run (hint, look for Sunbean\'s next start). And I\'m definitely providing \"excuses\" for the slow Wood time.
But yesterday\'s race, aside from the track being slower than normal, cannot really excuse a performance THAT slow. Unlike the Wood, there was no wind messing with the fractions and the coming home time was much slower despite that advantage. The Beyer in the 80s is ridiculous, however, given the lost ground. But this does not excuse the 39+ final 3F and anyone trying to compare this to the Wood is using apples and oranges.
A similar head scratcher is people like Beyer and BRIS giving similar figures for the Bluegrass. I\'m not saying it was that much better or a great race, but it was nearly 2 seconds better and the winner closed in just over 37 sec while going 8 wide, which might actually be more like 36.5 sec running straight line, so I would have expected marginally better figures. But I guess if you aren\'t factoring in ground loss in your figures, the race is certainly less impressive.
Toughest call is to know what to do with Oxbow, as this was clearly a bounce off the 1 unless we hear of some other issue. Is this another case of a Lukas horse being run into the ground, and this time too early before the Derby? I\'m going to have nightmares about dismissing him and them him moving back to that 1 and getting into the trifecta.
Anyone else worried that if Oxbow does make the gate, he may not make it home?
9th race in 6.5 months.
Why on Earth Lukas didn\'t train him up to it, like WTC, is beyond me. He already had the points to get in.
How do you pass up a grade one, million dollar race in your backyard when you are 5-2? bbb
phil23 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Anyone else worried that if Oxbow does make the
> gate, he may not make it home?
>
> 9th race in 6.5 months.
>
> Why on Earth Lukas didn\'t train him up to it, like
> WTC, is beyond me. He already had the points to
> get in.
Lukas has always done that..Horses are made for running is his mentality and has been for a long time..run a lot of animals into the ground over the years..Capote and Lady\'s Secret towards the end of her campaign are two I remember as a kid..
Which to me makes it very strange that he decided not to give Will Take Charge a final prep and instead train up to the race. Purely speculation but I have to think that something is amiss and I will need to see what the horse looks like over the next 2 1/2 weeks. Absolutely crazy to think the Derby is 2 weeks from this Saturday, it always comes and goes so fast!
For what it\'s worth, Lukas talked about this, saying that Oxbow thrived with the racing and training whereas the other colt he felt was better off training up.
He didnt thrive last saturday.