Is it just me, or is Pletcher doing a complete 180 when it comes to training at Churchill leading up to the KY Derby? In the past, for the most part, he\'s kept his colts or shipped them back down to Florida after a prep and continued to train them down there. He usually only ships into Churchill a few days before the KY Derby. And he\'s always said things like \'They\'ve been doing so well training down there that he doesn\'t want to break their rhythm, or he wants to keep the plan the same as what has worked for the colt in the past.\'
And now, with this one Verrazano, he\'s suddenly saying that they have to train at Churchill??
His quotes are below. But I wonder what is prompting the about face...
\"The key now is to go to Churchill and get over that track well. Churchill can be a very peculiar surface, and a lot of horses don't handle it.\" ... \"He's gone a mile, mile and a sixteenth, a mile and an eighth now and handled each one. He's got to go to Churchill and he's got to train well over that surface. If it's the surface we saw at the Breeders' Cup a couple of years ago, there might be no one that handles it. That's the real key. We've got a new track superintendent there; hopefully we get a good honest surface there."
MJ,
I am not reading that as any lack of faith in Verrazano or anything negative at all about the colt.
How I read that is Pletcher, like many of us here who have played Churchill a bit the last few years, have realized that the track crew there has done an absolutely awful job on a number of big days / big events. They \"shit the bed\" on both breeder\'s cups, on the Derby 2 of the last 3 years and on several other big cards where they had dead rails, dead speed, non-standard racing surface.
He wants to get there early to adjust to whatever they are doing, although he does lay out in his last sentence some hope that they will get it right this time because of the \"new crew\".
Anyway, just one interpretation.
Jim
MJ,
One possible explanation is that the surface at Palm Meadows was an absolute abomination by the end of the GP meet.
Terranova told me it was the worst it had ever been by an order of magnitude in the 12 years he has been training on it.
He couldn\'t wait to get his/my horses off of that surface and so he shipped to CD early this year as well.
They apparently haven\'t done significant maintenance on the Palm Meadows track since they installed it.
That is one possible reason although there are obviously many others
In looking at the archives, at least through the past six years, the only Pletcher horses that had run at least a 2 going into the Derby, and held or improved on their form were those who had also run a 2 over the Churchill strip as 2-year olds. Other than those, only the undistinguished Sam P improved upon his form in the Derby itself. I have no idea how much working a horse over a surface improves his predisposition to run on that surface, but I suspect there are more than a few here who do.
I don\'t think it is a negative. If anything it is a positive as I really think training at Churchill helps (provided the weather isn\'t so bad they miss training).
My post is more of a curious one. It could mean nothing. But why now, with this colt, when Pletcher has been getting numbers again down south and has always kept his colts there.
Being able to watch this colt train up at Churchill, where everyone is watching, is a different kettle of fish than Pletcher being able to keep him under wraps down south at PMM and do whatever he normally does down there. You can\'t even get a private clocker on site over there.
And for the players, knowing that Verrazano has been kept on track at Churchill for a few weeks and trained will give us a much more reliable means to gauge his condition as opposed to wondering what exactly happened down in Florida until 4 days ago when he shipped up and then galloped around once a day.
I\'m not saying Pletcher is doing anything down south or not. But I am saying he\'s been getting numbers AGAIN down there. And if he is doing something he may not be able to do it at Churchill.
Knowing how most of these guys are very much creatures of habit, I pay attention to any type of change like this.
I think Jim\'s post about the surface at PMM may have some merit.
Dunno. But nonetheless, it is curious to me.
MJ-- what do you make of the Pletcher at CD stats?
JB, it might be worth nothing that Jack Milton ran his race for Pletcher in the Translyvania at Keenland on opening day.
I obviously don\'t know what he ran but based on what the others were running going into that race, I would think (could be wrong) JM had to at least run his number if not a new top.
If Palice Malice an/or Charming Kitten run their numbers this weekend, we may have our first clue to this puzzle
For whatever reason his stats the lastcouple of years have been different at CD than Kee.
mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Is it just me, or is Pletcher doing a complete 180
> when it comes to training at Churchill leading up
> to the KY Derby? In the past, for the most part,
> he\'s kept his colts or shipped them back down to
> Florida after a prep and continued to train them
> down there. He usually only ships into Churchill
> a few days before the KY Derby. And he\'s always
> said things like \'They\'ve been doing so well
> training down there that he doesn\'t want to break
> their rhythm, or he wants to keep the plan the
> same as what has worked for the colt in the past.\'
>
>
> And now, with this one Verrazano, he\'s suddenly
> saying that they have to train at Churchill??
>
> His quotes are below. But I wonder what is
> prompting the about face...
>
>
> \"The key now is to go to Churchill and get over
> that track well. Churchill can be a very peculiar
> surface, and a lot of horses don't handle it.\" ...
> \"He's gone a mile, mile and a sixteenth, a mile
> and an eighth now and handled each one. He's got
> to go to Churchill and he's got to train well over
> that surface. If it's the surface we saw at the
> Breeders' Cup a couple of years ago, there might
> be no one that handles it. That's the real key.
> We've got a new track superintendent there;
> hopefully we get a good honest surface there."
Michael,
I agree with what Jimbo said. Could also explain, at least in part, why the Pletcher dirt horses, many of them speedballs, have done so much better at speedy GP over the past few years (vs CD). He generally brings the long-winded turf types to Kee.
JB-
I don\'t like accusing people without proof. But I do believe in circumstantial evidence. And the fact of the matter is that Pletcher, at times, gets numbers that don\'t make any sense. No one is THAT good. The best way to realize that is to actually make your own figures. You do, I am pretty sure you know exactly what I mean.
Now with that being said, there is also a lot of legal work that a vet can do on a horse. And you can tweak them to get a big one out of them, and sometimes you can tweak them again to get another one. And some of these guys do exactly that. Nothing illegal. But eventually the lemon will run dry.
You want to see a stable change quickly (for better or worse), quickest way IMO is to change vets. Someone gets caught with something, and all of a sudden a 35% trainer becomes a mortal 10% winner. You ship from somewhere that doesn\'t test for this or that to somewhere that does, same thing. And that probably is not a coincidence.
So although you don\'t want to accuse someone of something illicit without proof, as a player you have to pay attention to what the numbers are telling you.
So I look at this stuff sort of like that Supreme Court justice who said he couldn\'t define pornography, but he knew it when he saw it.
Yeah. But why specifically cold at CD last 2 years? They changed labs 2 years ago-- but he\'s done okay at Kee. Why CD?
Where\'s the barn at each venue, who can see what at each and what are the differences in security?
Start with that. Testing is only part of it.
It could be the horses come from GP in good form but might be tailing off. So the three weeks of KEE is at the right time but CD is far enough down the road to start showing the effects of a long winter.
Maybe some horsemen on the board can confirm this but I have been told that CD has added a lot of dirt to the surface and it doesn\'t drain as well as it used to. The crazy thing is no matter what track TAP trains over, the one he sees on the first Saturday of May is usually very different. I do think there is value to get there in time to do all your schooling and get adjusted to the chaos of the weeks leading up to the Derby.
Yeah again. When this subject first came up a couple of weeks ago I mentioned a similar situation with Frankel-- and supposedly that was the deal, at one Cali track his barn was in plain view, the other it was at the end of a road with only one way of access, you could see people coming.
I\'m afraid we can\'t get very far with any of this. Pletcher\'s CD fall numbers last year were as bad as his spring numbers, where any tailoff from the winter in Florida could not be a factor. Further he did fine during the Belmont 2012 spring meet (14 wins from 64 starters) where any tailoff should have shown up.
The CD stats are a total outlier but so far inexplicable.
Just to be clear,
I don\'t want to accuse anyone of anything and I\'m not trying to. And this may sound harsh, but I also don\'t need to be the police of the sport. What I do need to do, as a player, is have respect for my money. And it is therefore important for me to know that if I bet on a race at CD with a TAP entry in it, TAP doesn\'t usually do as well at CD as some other tracks. I don\'t need to know why. I just need to know that.
Much like I need to know when that when TAP starts getting numbers down in Florida, if I catch on quick I can go along for that ride. And I don\'t need to know why. Only that it is.
Back in the day I used to cut out the PP of every winner and paste them into a notebook and file them alphabetically by trainer. I also used to do the same with any horse that ran much better than they should have even if they didn\'t win. And there were patterns to what some of these guys and gals did. Some as basic as never trying with 1st time starters but cranking up for 2nd out, or 2 sprints and then a route, or a move up in class 3rd off a layoff, etc. Whatever. Some not so obvious. Sometimes the only clue was the tote.
The point I am trying to make is that we don\'t need to know the why. Only the what. And we need to make sure we get on or off accordingly. And we need to pay attention and notice when something changes.
This is exactly why I started this string. What TAP is saying he is going to do with Verrazano is different than what he has said and done with just about EVERY other 3 yr old derby trail colt he has had in the past 10 years. And I wonder why?
What Jim said may have some merit. Maybe it\'s as simple as a bad surface at PMM. Maybe he hasn\'t been doing anything weird with this colt anyway and he finally gets that training over Churchill is important. Maybe he knows if he has been doing something weird he can\'t do it at Churchill anyway so he may as well ship early. Or maybe he has a girlfriend in Louisville and he just wants to be there.
In any case, it means SOMETHING because it is different and these guys don\'t make a change for no reason.
The good news for us, as players, is that we will get to watch this one train at Churchill for a few weeks where TAP usually doesn\'t get numbers. So whether he\'s meds off or not, we won\'t have to guess about his condition. We\'ll probably see it in his training.
Or it could be Coolmore told TAP not to screw up the next truly big stallion possibility, and is dictating terms.
Pletcher only has about 6 stalls at Keeneland this meet.
Churchill has always been a very different track than any other ... god, try and walk it from the backstretch to the front and your legs will die, used to be deep, lots of clay. Haven\'t talked to anyone over there about how it is this year, don\'t know.
Anyway, point is, horses used to running over Florida have a deep time of it when they get to CD, it\'s so different. And when they harden it off it rattles them hard.
Don\'t forget with Kee they just had the 2-year-old training sale last night - and they were all running 10\'s the track was so firm.
Come on now, you aren\'t accusing them of souping up the track to show impressive times that will drive higher sales prices, are you? :)
Ah, I remember when Keeneland sniffed down their nose, and said, \"We\'ll never have a 2-yr-old training sale, it\'s not the right thing for spring babies just 18-months old\".
I can\'t believe I am about to write this.
Many times in life when people are successful they believe deeply in their methods and their ways based on whatever reasons lead them to that success. Without a doubt, TAP has been successful in this business with arguably (as he has one victory) the one exception being the Derby.
Highly successful people recognize their failures at some point and despite their stubborn (Structured, otherwise successful, regimented) methods, decide to do that fearful thing: Change. Maybe Pletcher has decided that with this high caliber horse after failures with Gemologist, Esky (injured), Uncle Mo (liver), Dunkirk, countless others, etc etc etc in the Derby that he should try a new method that could only be favorable to the horse.
On the other hand, maybe, he believes in the horse so much that he truly believes that he wants to give this horse Every Opportunity at becoming used to the track and like sighthound suggested possibly at the direction of the owners. TAP doesn\'t strike me as being told how to handle his Derby horse though....
It certainly is intriguing and a complete 180. One of my buddies always said for years, as long as his horses come straight from PMM to the Derby, he was not betting them. I\'ll be curious his thoughts on this.
TAP comes out of the D Wayne Lukas school of training, and he had 4 Derby winners. One thing Lukas trainees are, are professional and disciplined. As you say, pulling the horse away from Florida could be response to previous lack of success. If so, kudos to TAP
Apologies for being a dunderhead here.
Could some of the issue here be surface? I can easily see how you would use different \"medicines\" for different surfaces. For example, different medicines can help in different ways. One way to help is that for horses that tire badly, the medicine may make them not tire as badly. In dirt races, in general, horses tire way more than they tire on synthetic. If the particular medicine that is being caught by kentucky authorities is the type of medicine that stops horses from tiring...then the absence of that one particular medicine could be the answer for the difference in behavior between poly and dirt. It is not as important a drug on poly as it is on dirt.
If his keeneland turf to CD turf is also different.....what is the sample-size you are using for that? is it possible the sample size for turf to turf is too small to reach any conclusions?
Sighthound:
Not only does Coolmore want TAP to win the Derby with Verrazano, they realize that
much of the attention of the racing world is focused on Louisville and Lexington
for the next month or so. If Verrazano trains up a storm and really looks the part
for the next few weeks, the colt gets a lot of in the flesh exposure (which costs
Coolmore nothing) to the industry.
Now if Aidan O\'Brien shipped his Derby hopeful, Lines of Battle, to Kentucky for a
month of acclimation, well, that would be a story.
More most excellent observations from our man on the ground, James Covello, who
reports on track conditions in Florida as being a possible reason for Verrazano\'s
move. Hopefully, those who sniped at Jim during last year\'s Derby season have had
their say and we can continue to benefit from Jim\'s observations. Being tethered
to a desk here in Manhattan, and not having been to a live Derby since 1983, I
really appreciate Jim\'s input...
...not to mention, with apologies to the creators of the Dodd Frank Act, that
Covel\'s got some skin in the game down in Hot Springs this weekend. Last I looked,
Falling Sky already had enough prep points to earn the Covel crew a spot in the
owner\'s enclosure at Louisville. Will be interesting to see if Jim\'s Derby fever
is ratcheted down by a drink of \"coming back in three weeks isn\'t good for my
colt\" Kool Aid after what I hope is a good run at Oaklawn. Best of luck, man.
Hey Vito, welcome, Frank D will find you a fake nose and some sunglasses, and you
can attend a TG seminar at the Spa without being spotted on the Raggie radar...
Richiebee,
Thanks so much for the awesome message. I am packing up the clan and heading down to Arkansas today actually.
Remember 6 years ago when you were making fun of me for bringing my then new born in a stroller into Monmouth to make a derby futures bet? Well, that little degenerate has made some progress and he will be the youngest kid in the paddock in hot rings on Saturday with a fedora!
I am excited for Sat down there. Never been to Hot Springs but have heard great things.
We have the half brother to archx3 going in the undercard stakes as well. I hope likes that track as much as his brother did.
Either way, i will on the grounds at Churchill on Derby week as we have Swift Waarior in the Woodford Reserve so like it or not, you will be getting my blithering dribble during my favorite week of the year..
Jim,
If only your son had a twin? Then you could have 2 Utes in the paddock with fedora\'s! A Joe Pesci sequel that Richiebee could have a ball with.
Nothing like a race track education ala Jimbo who used to take little Jimmy to the park; so thought his wife. She never knew it was Monmouth Park and after meeting Miff at an early age he staring questioning his teacher about the A,B,C\'s.
Good luck this weeeknd,
Frank D.
Omg, this is great
I have 3 kids that will all be wearing fedoras in the paddock, only 1 was in a stroller as a newborn at MP making futures bets though !
Thanks so much again
Frank d,
Amazing that the early education didn\'t \"take\". Not sure this game has appeal to the younger generation these days
Although in my sons case it could be genetics. I now know when u cross breed a type \"a\" heavy gambler, with a communist from Poland, the communist genes are stronger....
Jim