I gave Dreaming Of Julia the best figure any horse has ever run. Not filly, not 3yo (let alone March 3yo)-- thoroughbred race horse. Allday can put that on his plaque at the Hall Of Fame.
I worked on that day for a long time, and given the Beyer I know her figure (and a couple in other races) will be controversial. But basically, if you take her out of the day, it\'s clear. The 2 turn races on the day all tie together within a point. I would love to have been able to give her worse, but you couldn\'t even break the race out in good conscience-- nobody else ran a top, one paired up, everyone else ran worse. In a graded stake.
The test of the figures for DWJ and the others in that race (and day) will be how they all run-- who the hell knows what DWJ will do. I\'ll save all other comments and figures from the day for the Derby seminar.
JB,
Stop Dreaming \"With\" Julia and start Dreaming \"Of\" Julia.Not surprised at your take but feel you are discounting that when a horse destroys and bottoms out a field, riders tend to stop riding,horses tend to surrender skewing beaten lengths.Very surprised anyone paired in there.Stake or not, yes
they all seem to have underperformed as a result of the tour de force of DOJ.
Sounds like you may chicken out on DOJ imploding next out. A monster fig by a 3 yr old filly no less,right in your bounce to the moon wheelhouse,no? You, of all people suddenly fearful of the 800 lb gorilla-esse,what\'s the game coming to.
Mike
There\'s no way to know what to do with DOJ because there\'s absolutely no precedent, because of the Allday factor, because of the Petcher in Ky questions, and because she can bounce 6 points and win.
Nightmare of or with her is more like it.
What a difference a race makes.DOJ a likely Oaks toss prior to last Sat,now has everyone\'s hair falling out trying to figure out what her next performance will look like.
Incidentally, did Allday run out of stuff for Shanghai Bobby?
Given Pletcher had 4 horses run zero or better on the card, three of which were fillies, I\'m thinking SB\'s issues probably were soundness related.
Or... maybe Allday got mixed up, skipped SB, and dosed DOJ twice.
I agree wholeheartedly this is a Puzzle. A couple of thoughts.
1.we should get an idea how much effect the Ky testing has on the pletcher/allday parade via the Keeneland meet and opening week of churchill downs.
2. I have no doubt DOJ will bounce but as you point out she is still a winner with a 6 point bounce. ( I had a similar personal experience had a filly I bred run a negative 4/12 she was given time, still bounced six points but was able to win running a 2) I suspect in most instances the bounce isn\'t an X but you would be in a better position to give a definitive answer.
3. DOJ\'s inconsistency is hard to figure. I wonder if she wasn\'t ready for her first out this year as some of the other pletcher horses in years past or is she just real quirky about the surface she runs on. No doubt it was one impressive performance
Before I say anything - are you saying she would have beaten any horse in history on that day? Including Frankel - Secretariat - Rachel - etc.?
Don\'t start.
Putting two and two together Orb\'s Fla Derby # is gonna make for a very lively discussion on here.
If you were part owner or advisor, would you hold her out for the Preakness?
How much ink would Orb be getting if Shug wasn\'t training him? For a horse that has not run especially fast so far,is not very brilliant but rather steady, I wonder.
Orb is now top rated for Derby? Did Verranzano retire?
She\'s already won a GI so they can afford to take a shot. And given Pletcher\'s record at CD... hmmm...
I was just thinking that. Orb and DOJ were about as wide and carried the same weight. Unless the track sped up significantly, doesn\'t an all-time fig for DOJ give Orb a new top here? Which seems surprising, if so.
AJ,
A sub par effort by IMLD and the no show by SB left Orb in a good position to win.Pretty average last 1/8 to boot compared to other races at the distance.
Mike
Agree with you on the Fla Derby Mike but if TG gives Orb a negative # will your head explode?
Could be wrong but I though Orb was a path wider than Julia on both turns.
Big,
If Orb gets a negative number, use that sheet for wallpaper.Slice and dice it, maybe you can squeeze a 1.5 considering the 3 routes on the day.orb could slave off IMLD\'s previous figs but IMLD not close to his prior two races on Sat.
Mike
Richiebee,
Wait seven weeks instead of five to help offset her prior efforts is intriguing. Hypothetically speaking, playing it out, does Verrazzano receive a five week rest before Belmont?
Flighted Iron
FI:
Ed Fountaine, in Monday\'s New York Post, said that an old timer in the Aqueduct
press box said that the biggest beneficiary of the new Derby qualifying system might
be the Preakness.
Fascinating Wood coming up Saturday. Vyjack a very talented gelding, the racing
establishment possibly cringing at the thought of his embattled trainer being in the
Derby spotlight.
The Wood might be an opportunity for all.Should be interesting to see how fast
they make Verrazzano go.
Good luck
The paradox that the Dr in question has created is that by spilling some of the beans to the Jockey Club Godfathers he has in effect because one of the good guys in their view. His genius lies in making himself so desirable that the all ethics are tossed out the window in order to ensure that his services will be rendered. Parlaying that reputation into his Lubrisyn/ReBourne product line which is now probably outpacing his direct racetrack revenue tenfold he has used larceny to his benefit. His maneuvering by which he turned the tables on a Jockey Club desperate to obtain real life information in their odd fight with lasix and trainers in general added to his repeated stance against legal medications like lasix is nothing short of PR genius. All of a sudden the Dr is on the same side as the Jockey Club on their pet issue and is seemingly the lone racetrack practitioner called for the abolition of that lasix stuff and has placed himself to the unknowing as a vet with a conscience. That crazy dude that is threatening to start World War III in North Korea could do worse than hire the Dr to shore up his public image and perhaps turn his soldiers into Rambo\'s with his DOJ stuff.
Tom Sawyer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The paradox that the Dr in question has created is
> that by spilling some of the beans to the Jockey
> Club Godfathers he has in effect because one of
> the good guys in their view. His genius lies in
> making himself so desirable that the all ethics
> are tossed out the window in order to ensure that
> his services will be rendered. Parlaying that
> reputation into his Lubrisyn/ReBourne product line
> which is now probably outpacing his direct
> racetrack revenue tenfold he has used larceny to
> his benefit. His maneuvering by which he turned
> the tables on a Jockey Club desperate to obtain
> real life information in their odd fight with
> lasix and trainers in general added to his
> repeated stance against legal medications like
> lasix is nothing short of PR genius. All of a
> sudden the Dr is on the same side as the Jockey
> Club on their pet issue and is seemingly the lone
> racetrack practitioner called for the abolition of
> that lasix stuff and has placed himself to the
> unknowing as a vet with a conscience. That crazy
> dude that is threatening to start World War III in
> North Korea could do worse than hire the Dr to
> shore up his public image and perhaps turn his
> soldiers into Rambo\'s with his DOJ stuff.
This reminds me of something I read somewhere about Mike Piazza. Basically, everybody knows that he was using back in the day. However, unlike a lot of guys from the same era, he befriended a lot of key reporters and he told them on a strictly off the record that he was using (but not too much). Basically, as a matter of journalistic ethics....because, he had confessed to them but in a strict off the record context, a lot of the important reporters were hamstrung from reporting very much on him. I have no idea whether this is true or not. I have only heard it as hearsay. However, it is potentially an interesting parallel to the Dr. Allday scenario.
Btw, I am sure people have made jokes about it already, but doesn\'t it even seem like Allday\'s name is a joke out of an Austin Powers movie? As in, they call me Dr. Allday because my patients run all day!
Wood is not a must-win for either horse, though - it\'s an education prep only.
Sighthound,
Edgumacation is what a close friend used to say when we\'d be on the first tee.
Dude was offered full ride to Duke to play and turned it down. I asked why and he said \"i\'m not gonna play pro so what\'s the point? He\'s a scientist now not to
mention a super cool human being. So i ask you,could having an ideal finishing time for Horse X, regardless of finishing position, affect the horse adversely?
Btw, Black Caviar. Shes like the Aussie bands\' song about the girl having rythm. If I owned Santa Anita i\'d give her connections a cool hush hush half million just to show up and race.
Flighted Iron
Both horses are already qualified for Derby. I doubt either will be asked for more than a conditioning effort. Not a must-win race. Don\'t risk bottoming out the horse, don\'t risk injury.
There is zero need for Black Caviar to come to America - there is nothing in this country to run with her.
sighthound Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Both horses are already qualified for Derby. I
> doubt either will be asked for more than a
> conditioning effort. Not a must-win race. Don\'t
> risk bottoming out the horse, don\'t risk injury.
>
>
> There is zero need for Black Caviar to come to
> America - there is nothing in this country to run
> with her.
Or a track or race. Her races are pretty much a sprint on the straight, right? Maybe there\'s a quarterhorse who likes the turf somewhere...
No, the majority of her races are 6 furlongs around one turn. 14 Grade 1 stakes, 7 Grade 2, 32 other Grade 1 winners defeated in her career.
Sighthound,
Most of her wins have been similar to her last. no ? I saw the race at Ascot and she was ridden pretty hard. I\'d wager there are a few running in the U.S. who\'ve run figures fast enough going 1 turn on the weeds to handle what she beat
at Ascot that day.
Flighted
I think you should watch this mare\'s races on YouTube. Black Caviar was the top sprinter in the world in 2012, Timeform 136. That\'s the highest ranking 3-yr-old up (with two other mares) in Timeform\'s 64 year history.
What current American sprinters can even get over 125?
Depends who is making the figures.
What American sprinters would you rate with Black Caviar?
The question would be turf sprinters-- many dirt sprinters have much better figures but that\'s apples/oranges. I would have to run a list, but there are a lot of complicating factors-- location, lasix, distance (5f is not 6 1/2 at SA). But a couple of points worth noting-- first. even giving her an extra length (tops) at Ascot for the kid misjudging the wire, there were still a lot of horses close to her at the finish. Second, they have run the BC Turf Sprint a few times now and it\'s not like foreigners are doing real well. You would think for that kind of money anyone with a chance would come (not necessarily from down under, better sprint purses there).
But bottom line, speed is our game here. More on dirt than grass, but that\'s what we\'ve been breeding for, for a long time.
I will say this-- they take drugs more seriously down there, so there\'s no reason to believe she\'s getting any help, which many fast horses here are.
Black Caviar sustained two torn muscles during her Royal Ascot win.
http://www.news.com.au/national-news/black-caviar-tears-two-muscles-in-diamond-jubilee-stakes-win-at-royal-ascot/story-e6frfkvr-1226406961828
Turf courses at main Aussie tracks like cement,Europe like mush.Coming down the hill at Santa Anita Black C might just go airborne. US turf sprinters ok, no real beasts.
Aussie top level grass racing not weak,esp the sprints.
\"Depends on who is making the figures\"
On that note,Normandy Invasion fans should note that according to RAGS,NI\'s last race was a small top(better than his Remsen)and, drumroll please,only a half point slower than Verranzanos Tampa win,brilliant!!
Mike
Yeah, some guy on their site gave the figures for the three favorites. Amazing.
They also apparently have all VJ\'s figures the same.
JB,
My Rag pals sending it in on NI,they have Verranzano sitting 0 2 X and Vyjack a bit slower than NI.Did not see the Rags myself but pal Raggie Richie chomping at the bit.
Mike
jerry...just curious....you said this week that dreaming of julia has run the fastest figure you\'ve ever given....are quality road and ghostzapper the other two fastest.....allday injected, i mean treated them, correct?....
The hilarious thing is that after the Risen Star at the FairGrounds on Feb. 23, I remember some knucklehead on this forum dissed NORMANDY INVASION\'s performance as \"empty!\" Adding an incredible, mind-numbing assessment that NI was sans an apparent excuse that day! Hahahahaha! To those with half a brain who saw the colts 4-5-6-7 wide trip (and know that this is the ThoroGraph forum and not the Andy Beyer forum!), that assessment was truly bewildering! More laughable when you read the race chart\'s trip notes.
Once and for all: NORMANDY INVASION\'s Risen Star performance was indeed a goodie! An excellent one! Not an empty one! And this is confirmed by the strong figure Jerry gave him for the race - a ThoroGraph that\'s now available in tomorrow\'s Aqueduct card products.
JTChance
Midnight Lute is the other in there, and Allday was the vet for the two you mentioned to my knowledge.
Clueless Clowns at NY Gaming Commission report no violations found in out of competition test for Wood participants.
Guess Alldays \"stuff\" not detectable.
This is sort of an interesting question eh. Not whether it\'s undetectable which we probably just assume it is...but whether V gets the DoJ treatment for this race? Or do they save that for the Derby?
In order to find something you must first know what you are looking for
just when you think you have the answers, they change the questions....
Well, obviously she didn\'t run a jump in the Oaks, but Emollient\'s effort in the Ashland doesn\'t hurt your interpretation of Julia\'s number.
ajkreider Wrote:
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> Well, obviously she didn\'t run a jump in the Oaks,
> but Emollient\'s effort in the Ashland doesn\'t hurt
> your interpretation of Julia\'s number.
New surface?
I\'m sure it played a role, but it\'s not like she didn\'t have a win over GP\'s main track.
Emollient ran fantastic today and I believe she is just amazingly talented whether its dirt or poly. Crushed apparently inferior competition. I still have her 8-9 lengths slower than Julia\'s performance last week. Reminded me of how Royal Delta\'s style has changed from off the pace to front runner. And oh yeah, Mike Smith at the controls for all you haters in a big money race. Close Hatches with a front running score also in the Gazelle. Almost Mott\'s new style....
Oaks is going to be an exciting field and betting race if all of Pletcher, Baffert, Mott horses, and Beholder run especially if you are against Julia that day.
She ran brilliant today. But the way she ran today had as much to do with validating dreaming of Julia\'s figure last weekend as the figure that I ran walking to my car did.
She ran a half mile last week and packed it in. No idea why. That race can\'t be tied to anything to validate anything.
Not that the Julia figure needs validating. If TGJB got it wrong and it really is a negative 4 the read on Julia stays the same. She pairs she wins. She could bounce to the moon. Tough call
Jim
My source at the Big A jockey club has you on the way to the parking lot doing a 47-, with bi/bo notation.
I get your point, but my only point is that quality horses, even on off days, only run so bad.