I am going to play Normandy Invasion in the Wood. I think the horse is better than what he has shown. Nice workouts and Castellano riding him.
Nightmare trip!
He will beat Verrazano in the Derby
I predict NI goes off at the shortest odds of a non-winner-at-three in the history of the Derby.
So much for all the Remsen NI haters, his line will look pretty good on Derby Day.
He races very deceptively, which I think is why so many people misjudged him prior to today (although with all the negativity he was still bet down to 7/2). He looks like he is not able to move that fast for 95% of the race, and then at the end of the race he\'s suddenly going faster than everyone else.
I\'m still not convinced he will get by Verrazano in the Derby, but with the added distance and a clean trip (never a given) he\'s gonna be right there again.
To the degree anything about his trip was nightmarish -- highly debatable -- you have to wonder at this point whether NI is the type of horse who habitually gets himself into some kind of trouble, although today\'s was insignificant. And I\'m not so sure his line looks all that good coming into the Derby, as the best that probably can be said is that he has had to work very hard to get back to his 2yo top. If that.
Who are these people that misjudged him prior to today? The wood was slow, he had no horror trip, and he started running after the race was over to get a suck up second second when distance challenged Vyjack hit a wall late
Agree with earlier post that this horse will be over bet on derby day
I saw nothing impressive with this horse. A poor man\'s dollar bill (was that 1999 or 2000.
So you are not going to admit to thinking he was overbet today? Of course you didn\'t see anything impressive, because doing so would make the litany of comments you made this winter about him look ridiculous. I could given 2-5 on you saying that no matter what happened today.
If closing into what everyone in the universe has as the best or second best horse on the Derby Trail, off such a slow pace, and losing by less than a length in a G1 while moving the best at the end doesn\'t at least get your attention, then I\'m not sure what will.
So now this was a bad field/race? And everything in Louisiana? And everything in Arkansas? Do good fields exist in your world?
Tread,
All irrelevant, the Wood was slow, thats all that counts, Grade 1, Grade 9 or whatever.NI ran marginally faster(maybe) than fillies that run in the 5 range.
Mike
> All irrelevant, the Wood was slow, thats all that
> counts, Grade 1, Grade 9 or whatever.NI ran
> marginally faster(maybe) than fillies that run in
> the 5 range.
And so did Verrzano.
\"And so did Verrzano\"
Verranzano looked quite mortal today,Shug has an accelerated heart rate.
My guess is the filly race comes up big. V has much more chance of not starting twice in TC races than winning 3. There are actually some horses positioned to make a run at the TC this year, but not him.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Tread,
>
> All irrelevant, the Wood was slow, thats all that
> counts, Grade 1, Grade 9 or whatever.NI ran
> marginally faster(maybe) than fillies that run in
> the 5 range.
>
>
> Mike
It was a strange race. Now, you can make a case that Normandy Invasion is the common denominator in the two strangest Derby prep results thus far and it\'d be a decent case. But when the speed to Verrazano\'s outside is held at the gate, and then a crawling pace ensues yet there\'s little sprinting for home, and you know for a fact that those top three are faster than that, then you have a really good case to put an asterick by it.
Eight,
Agree they are faster but only with creative license can the race become fast. It wasn\'t on the track.
Mike
Agree that Shug has an accelerated heart rate. Verrazano all out finishing straight as a string after slow fractions. Golden Cents not anothe i\'ll have another who was bred for 1 1/4. Keen eye on Arkansas Derby, but Orb looking best. Also Revolutionary-those who think he always gets into trouble and will find more in a 20 horse field need to realize he has learned how to overcome it.
Scarlet Strike\'s last two on turf ARE as impressive as they look.
Tread
Not sure how he was bet today matters, but he was bet about right. Lots of Vyjack haters thinking he would not get the distance. Roughly co second choice behind 4-5 winner.
The race today was slow. Maybe the slow pace was the major contributor. I would believe that before I started thinking the filly race was super fast as TGJB suggested might have happened.
I watched the race a few times. Castellano saved ground and got a decent trip except for horribly slow pace. Was making up almost no ground until very late in the stretch. Maybe that means he can suck up in the derby and pass tired ones.
The story out of today\'s Wood IMO is that Verrazano looks extremely bearable to me and a toss at short odds. Off the perfect trip 49 half, sitting off a sprinter, he is supposed to draw off with authority. He looked just ok in the stretch.
Flashback also looked weak today.
Thinking orb the most likely winner of the derby but I for one will be looking for a few price horses to stab at
Ji,
I really don\'t think Verrazano was \"all out\" in the least - jock only threw two crosses and hit him once in the stretch - it was all hand ride, and the horse was barely breathing when he got back.
I didn\'t say super fast. At a quick glance, even if you don\'t factor in the extreme difference in pace, adjusting for time, weight and ground, Wood goes about 3 points better than the filly winner. Pretty clear what figure puts the Wood top 3 together at the wire.
Price horses from where, the Bluegrass? You\'ve already written off all of LA, Ark, NY, and sounds like you aren\'t impressed with Cali either (which I actually agree with).
Tread
With u writing off California, I will start my search there. Your next correct opinion will be your first
Like Normandy Invasion being a solid bet to run much better after the Risen Star, for example, which you strongly disagreed with. Better look in the mirror there buddy
Knock it off, guys.
NI could always try NW1x if he bombs in the Derby!
TGJB
The ground loss for Verrazano on the first turn was the kind I would take any day if I could track a no shot horse through a 49 half. Will see how the figures turn out but that feels like a slippery slope. The wood doesn\'t look good to me at on the numbers versus the rest of the card, including the filly race.
Very curious as to the several others u have as candidates to sweep the triple crown. Guess will see in the seminar.
As for these fast fillies, in any other year, besides the rachel year, there are three or four who would be solid favorites.
But if dreaming of Julia runs her race, they don\'t have a shot
Jim
Not meant to antagonize. Just my thoughts on NI.
Jimbo mentioned Dollar Bill. As they came through the lane watching on TV, the fractions were not on the screen other than I knew 49+ for the half, and I wondered is this an example of Dollar Bill, Saarland (beaten 3 1/2 in Wood with displaced palate excuse), or Funny Cide. When i saw the time....I knew he definitely isn\'t Funny Cide. I was thinking Saarland, Dollar Bill wiseguy garbage.
NI was in a grade 1 race and ran 2nd but he again does not have the electric move you saw as a 2yo. Some astute observations I never caught about his size, his preparation for the Derby with two races certainly are helpful in understanding him. However, he has been working bullet after bullet and had every opportunity in the lane today to fire past but came home slowww.
Essentially, I see NI as slow, closer (although not too far from the slow pace today) that could clunk for tri/super money at best in the Derby. In his defense, he visually appeared to be gaining on Verrazano, galloped out past him into the turn, and was in between horses down the backside while tugging JJ to the front before JJ was ready to send. But where was his turn of foot in the stretch drive before the wire. I just think the race was slow. I\'m looking for my Derby winner from somewhere other than the Wood.
As for Verrazano\'s triple crown chances, his long stride, and his not breathing hard after the race....I am cynical I know but I\'ve heard this story many, many times before. Plus I don\'t like More Than Ready at 1 1/4 miles, granted his Damside has serious distance although I agree with Stitch\'s line of thinking that Sire determines distance abilities/limitations. I\'ll take Shug and Orb to be ahead of Verrazano at the finish although that\'s not to say others won\'t win.
And there are plenty of reasons to bet she won\'t run her race in Louisville.
It still feels to me like this kind of analysis is fitting a square peg in a round hole. Each internal 1/4 was faster than the last in this race all the way up to a mile, it wasn\'t until the 9th furlong that they started slowing down a bit. Compare this to the LA,SA,FL derbies where every internal 1/4 was slower than the next? It was an unusually run race.
Unless the wind changed the stretch run was also into a strong wind-- last 8th much faster than the fillies, obviously pace a factor. But NI and the other two finished strong.
NI\'s splits assuming rough estimate that 1 length is 1/5 (.20) second which is flawed but will have to suffice for this rudimentary exercise:
Opening quarter approx. 26.06
Second quarter approx. 24.16 (50.22)
Third quarter approx. 24.22 (1:14.44)
Final three furlongs. 35.98 (1:50.42)
Giving the devil his due (see what I did there with a former Wood winner?), I see a horse that you could argue needs a fast pace ahead of him to set up his closing kick and he was compromised by the slow pace. But given how close he was through 6 furlongs, I believe that he ran his typical race today.
_______________________________
2012 Remsen NI Splits
Opening Quarter approx. 25.69
Second Quarter approx. 23.98 (49.67)
Third Quarter approx. 24.27 (1:13.94)
Final three furlongs. 36.19 (1:50.13+nose)
________________________________________
My math could certainly be wrong and feel free to check it and correct it. He does pick it up late in his races it seems which is positive but he goes so slow for that first half mile, its difficult to see him having enough talent to be a Derby winner. Those fractions obviously don\'t account for track speed which would affect a true comparison with pace figures based on the other races of each of those days. But I just don\'t see a horse that is a Derby winner. I could see him as a Belmont type horse potentially that reminds of Drosselmeyer just grinding away at that same speed and I think that\'s what you will hear Brown say after the Derby when he runs a similar race to today with a speed figure not fast enough to win with a middle to top 5 finish. CB will say that they will skip Preakness and shoot for the Belmont.
Out of curiosity, what odds do you expect or hope for on Derby Day if you seek to play him? I think 10 or 11-1 is top of the line you will see more likely 6-1 to 8-1. Figs will certainly affect that and the field isn\'t set so its hard to guess just yet.
I will say this: I am way more likely to use NI in a horizontal wager than Verrazano at 7/2 to 9/2 favorite.
Interesting stuff on the fractions
As for odds in the derby the win pool is skewed every year because of the influx of dead money. That said, Verrazano will be less than 9-2, that I would bet almost anything on. Thinking 3-1 favorite is about right. As for tread\'s stud Normandy invasion, he can\'t possibly be 6-1. He will be double digits albeit likely low double digits. 10 to 12 to 1 or so
Wondering if anybody will give goldencents a shot? I didn\'t think he would
Get the 1 1/8 but he finished well and rated pretty kindly today. If he drifted too far in price, he could be interesting.
Jim
His race seemed fast compared to Beholder\'s race. I was impressed visually with his performance. Curious what beyer figure he gets. While I know this is Thorograph board, I really feel like the Beyers give me the best feel for what the odds will be in races given that\'s what the majority of the public focus on and likely the majority of the money uses before betting on the big days.
From kentuckyderby.com
\"I\'m very proud of the horse,\" jockey Javier Castellano said of Normandy Invasion. \"He did an amazing run. This is the first time I rode him, and he made a huge run. One more jump, and I could have won the race. His gallop-out was amazing; I had trouble pulling him up. That\'s a great feeling when you\'re looking at the big picture and the Kentucky Derby.\"
FTR, my \"stud horse\" is Verrazano and I hold no other futures besides him. I know this violates the \"too fast too soon\" theory, but there is just too much going for him in terms of running style and breeding plus all the superlatives I hear about his physical appearance, he just seems like the only true Derby horse in a sea of 8/9 furlong horses.
That said, I will certainly be looking for others to use in case he is burnt out and to make up a tri/super ticket, and I\'m less than sold on Orb based on the fact that he is not truly a closer (runs fast fraction like 22+change early and is going slower later, they ran a slower final 8th in the Fla derby without the headwind) and am looking for horses that will truly sit back and make a run late, as I think Verrazano will run most of the earlier pace out of the race (or they will run themselves out being 8f horses trying to go too far).
Completely agree that there is no way we will get double digits on Normandy Invasion, and if he is a small-footed horse then there is a much greater likelihood that he will have trouble with the CD surface. But as of right now, he is on my short list of horses to potentially round out the tri.