with this number power and getting a weight break, how can this horse not be the best single on the card....
the surface could get her...
the distance, too....
but is this not a thorograph players dream, and at 4-1, 5-1 is this not the only play......
thoughts....please....
Her trip last year also may be being under-rated for how bad, how stopped she was.
So I concur though. If this was any normal race, she looks like an all time layover. Guess the ways she can lose are:
RD - no Lasix
AK - if his best surface actually is Synth and he runs the career top that some think is coming and Motion\'s non drugginess allows him to adapt to running without Lasix far better than RD.
DUL - if that huge iso top in Pac Classic was not due to the White Mercedes but was in fact because he is a synth freak. Although if that were the case you\'d have thought the prep, even though it was just \"a prep\" would have brought out a lot more from him, he was by all accounts \"training great\" over the Meydan track before the prep. Granted cross timezone travel so acclimatization could account for that. He\'s off Lasix too.
others
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MONT - not close to last yr\'s form
HLIGHT - I\'d bet against him even if the American\'s weren\'t coming. Definitely a play against at the short odds.
ASTORY - Faster than HLIGHT but never been this far. Also do 6yr olds really improve that much more.
Somebody can run the numbers maybe, but it seems to me that American horses going to Dubai since they changed surfaces have mostly not fired (Gio Ponti was an exception). Our guys ran well there over dirt, but over grass historically and synth not so much. Lasix? Something else?
All of which is why I didn\'t do an analysis, very tricky. Having said that, there definitely are some interesting betting races, but I\'m going to be doing a lot of spreading. And I\'m not getting up early.
royal delta looks so obvious on paper, she can\'t win,,,,,last year\'s winner decides to run a new top at the age of 6, i believe....godolphin is tricky
Anyone expecting horses to run their same figures off Lasix had better go to the archives and review last years BC Juvenile (HUGE example) and the other 2 yr old races (lesser examples). Personally, I think anyone zeroing in on a specific US horse and expecting the same figure is nuts.
Definitely agree with the comments about Motion and AK. His dam side is German breeding where bleeders are extensively weeded out. I\'m not saying any of the others will actually bleed noticeably, but with the solid euro breeding it seems to make sense to me that AK would be the one who will react least to being off Lasix. That said, I am with JB in that all of these races require spreads.