Anyone care to explain what HEAT HAZE did yesterday?
If my calculations are correct, she closed in 22 flat....and she was weaving in and out to avoid running over horses who were moving pretty well themselves.
Not bad for a fily who was off the board in her last two races, had a long year, was cutting back from two races at a mile and a quarter, and showed several slow works going in.
Frankel\'s such a magician he could probably make the mountains behind Santa Anita disappear on national TV.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Explanation: Heat Haze had 3 or better in 5 of his last 6 races ( a couple at a mile or less) and a 4 in his last in the BC (losing by 2-12 lengths) with trouble prior to a 2 two ago...easily the fastest and most consistent horse in the race at 4-1 with 35 days rest showing the potential to improve based on his last two races.
The real question is what was up with Musical Chimes.
possibly the quickest turf filly EVER TO RUN. look at the fractions she has been running at the end of her races. in her second turf sprint in the US she ran the last 1/16 in about 5.0 flat. do you remember dansili, the horse that finished third in the BC a few years back with JR aboard? that was her half brother, and he put in one of the most incredible stretch runs i have ever seen. heat haze is also a half to banks hill, a horse with a pedigree tilted more towards distance, but she was also an incredible animal.... but seriously, running 1m, heat haze has the greatest burst of speed i have ever seen...... was also interesting how Frankel praised JR (saying he wins with a 50% clip when JR rides for him, which can\'t be true). will only be a matter of a few years before JR has every record in the book.
and how about the price on HH yesterday? you knew post 11 wouldn\'t be much of a problem with most of the horses inside of HH having good tactical speed. she was bound to save ground until the top of the stretch, then her class just took over. i thought 4-1 was a gift.
Post Edited (12-01-03 20:37)
just read where frankel said he should have had HH in the mile instead of the F&M turf. sometimes it may appear as though she needs more ground, but many of these one run closers can only put in their best run when they go a mile or less. i think HH is the perfect miler.
Michael D--
You\'re right about the one run closers kicking better going shorter, especially the classier ones.
My thoughts were the :22 flat weaving through a full field was mind boggling. I needed DEDICATION in the one or 2 spot, so sour grapes are part of my speech here.
ASFUF makes an even better point. How does one explain MUSICAL CHIMES?
PS: Based on Frankel\'s comment re: Johnny V; why doesn\'t he use him more often???
Good Luck,
Joe B.
i think JR has been known more as a speed rider on dirt than a turf rider. for some reason frankel started giving every turf mount that bailey wouldn\'t take to prado. while edgar is an excellent turf rider, i think frankel is starting to learn that JR is the second best rider in the game, on any surface. look for more frankel/jr combos in the future....... and Joe, why dedication? a guy on the other board also needed dedication. i just thought she was a bit slow, using any speed figures. as for musical chimes, i wrote \"no idea\" next to her name on my form. i used her a bit, but she could have finished second or last, and it would not have surprised me.
Post Edited (12-03-03 10:11)
maybe the TG crew could also shed some light on the HH race. they recommended HH at 5-2 or better, making her a solid play at 4-1.
Michael D--
I was at Belmont for both of her efforts in the U.S. Her first try in September was a nice prep in the Noble Damsel---she made a quick mid-race move into a strong pace only to hang late. She toyed with allowance horses going 6f on turf in October where she was hopelessly blocked, but kicked in with a furious drive once cleared. I projected an improvement off of the 2 races in this country and liked the 6f to 1 mile angle. I also looked at the figs assigned to that race with a bit of skepticism. Visually, both of DEDICATION\'s efforts were impressive; + Good post + Clement freshening + excellent value.
I think she wins it if she doesn\'t get stopped for that brief moment at the top of the stretch. The sad part was I just needed her to hold second. That\'s the pain of turf racing...you\'re a winner two steps before the wire, then you\'re third.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
ok..... makes a bit more sense now. thanks Joe.
I agree that Velazquez is an excellent and improving rider, but I\'m pretty sure that Prado is ahead of him in terms of win/ITM% on turf, and that would be one good reason why Prado gets those Frankel mounts. I don\'t have the stats in front of me, but I\'m pretty sure I recall Julie Krone and Nakatani as others who are ahead of JohnnyV on grass in terms of win/ITM% as well, and I think there are a few others.
I\'m sure TG has access to this info and can chime in if I\'m wrong. I am referring to the stats in the new DRF press book \"Go For The Green\", which probably come from Equibase as well.
HP
i think \"improving\" rider is the key word here> Velazquez is only 31 years old. he has made his share of mistakes on the turf as he has learned the art. i think he\'s just about at the point now where most of the big name outfits will want his services on any surface. after the race on sunday, frankel must have been thinking that no other jockey would have saved ground on BOTH turns from post 11, and won that race for him. a rather big race, since it might earn HH an eclipse (although Isl would still get my vote).
not to beat this subject to death, but i remember the DRF comment when drysdale\'s horse won the otto mile with JR aboard three or four years ago. the line was \"perfect trip\"...... the horse started from post 13, and was about 10-1. (sorry, forget the name of the horse)
I remember he won a turf race back in 98 at CD, some horse Dickinson trained...
Actually, I thought he moved too soon that day, pulling 3w on the second turn for no reason, and it almost cost us the BC. But in general he has become a top rider, and the HH ride was a beauty. Not many guys would have had the patience to stay inside until something opened up, and if he goes around he\'s third or worse-- it\'s unlikely HH ran the best number, despite giving weight to the 3yo.
Meanwhile, think Julie\'s glad she made a comeback?
By the way, we used the above two regularly when I managed the Wachtel stable with Forbes training in the late 80\'s-early 90\'s, back when Velasquez was a bug in NY and Julie was in Jersey.
I think Krone is about the only jockey who has MUCH better stats on turf than dirt. I heard her call a race once (Belmont?) and I almost fell over laughing while I was looking to see where she kept the helium. HP
come on, velazquez timed that BC ride perfectly. it\'s solis who blew it on that one run Rahy horse, a horse i bet a ton of money on. i also thought solis blew it on VG that day, letting him get so far damn back. hey, TGJB, if it\'s not too much trouble, could you post VG\'s sheet. it is hysterical how his #\'s moved when they switched from solis to bailey (if it\'s time consuming, don\'t bother with this stuff, but could you also put up the dickinson horse\'s sheet?)
Hit the link to see the sheets for DH and VG. VG\'s is also on the cover of our hardcopy product.
The difference wasn\'t in the figures VG was running for Bailey/Stevens vs. those for Solis, it was the net result due to ground loss. I fought very hard against Solis riding in the Derby, lost, and almost threw up when he went past us the first time not only last, but outside two horses with a five length gap in front of him. I put the binoculars down, and didn\'t even see him again until the eigth pole. VG got a much better number than RQ that day, and Solis was taken off.
Stevens rode in the Preakness, we were favored, and I fully expected to win, but RQ beat the hell out of us, on the merits. Gary rode back in the Belmont and though I am biased it was the greatest big race ride I have ever seen-- he split horses 3 times, and if he had gone around any one of them we would have lost.
But then Gary got hurt before the Travers, and I was unable to keep the owners (not Elliot) from putting Solis back up. Just as in the Derby we were the widest horse on both turns, and lost a photo despite running the best number-- if we had been inside one horse on either turn we would have won both the Travers and the Derby. But given the trip in the Belmont and the wide trip Behrens got when we beat him a nose in the Whitney the following year-- which got us an Eclipse-- I can\'t complain. Bailey rode in the Foster and Whitney.
I don\'t blame Solis for the BC loss-- we told him we didn\'t care how far back he was, we got a rail trip, and were only a length back at the eighth poll-- VG hung. He had been sick, and there was no time to get a prep race in him.
By the way, if you ever get a chance, check out Durkin\'s call in the 98 Belmont. Dave Johnson is a friend of mine and did the call for ABC, but Durkin\'s is the best call in history (of course, I\'m a little biased).
\"Twenty years in the making... it\'s going to be close... IT\'S TOO CLOSE TOO CALL.
They say a picture is worth a thousand words, this one is worth FIVE MILLION DOLLARS.
History...
in the waiting...\"
I have watched that tape a couple of dozen times, and I still can\'t watch it sitting down. And I still don\'t think he got up.
Interesting to see that Frankel thinks Heat Haze should have run in the BC Mile. Frankel is probably thinking that since a filly, Six Perfections won, he could have won with Heat Haze.
Since Peace Rules ran like he was a \"rabbit\" Frankel needed a closer.
However,I have my doubts about her in that spot. She has to be allowed to explode in the stretch to win and traffic in that big field would have been a BIG PROBLEM.
Also, is it no surprise that a horse you have been betting/using and following all year wins when you are unable to go to the track and pays pretty good.
Sorry to post my nonsense after you were \"speaking from the heart\" TGJB.
You wrote:
\"though I am biased it was the greatest big race ride I have ever seen\"
You are biased but you are also accurate.
thanks, much appreciated. VG was one of my favorite horses of all time; i have watched that tape and listened to the call probably more than you have. btw, my bet in the derby that year was VG to win, with an ex over RQ. my bet in the travers that year (after hitting the king\'s bishop exacta with secret firm over mint) was a huge exacta, VG over CQ & the ny bred (who was also right there within inches). solis can\'t be a bad jockey if so many top trainers use him, but it seems as though i get a lot of very tough beats when he rides the horses i bet.
If you do put up his SHEET should we use Legal Size paper?
That layoff will leave a lot of blank columns.
Unless the topic is bad rides by Uske or Clemente, I\'m probably not the best guy to listen to when it comes to jockeys, but based on the recently concluded CD meet it seems that Calvin Borel got religion when it comes to saving the maximum ground possible. A couple of times out of the mile chute he made such a hard left that it looked like he was thinking about running clockwise. I expect him to have a breakout kind of meet at FG, starting tomorrow. The discussion re Frankel is interesting, as there is some talk going around that Bailey is getting tired of not having a mount in big races, which has happened quite a few times when Frankel changed his mind about running after Bailey committed to ride. If I remember correctly, they didn\'t do much if any business together until Bailey piloted You between horses for a nose victory at Sar a couple of yrs ago.
Hey Mall,
Judging by the way Heat Haze ran when Bailey was up maybe that was what Frankel intended to do in the first place.
Use someone else, but still have JD believe he is his first call rider.
Go back to the Bailey Off Valdivia Up Post, there are certain types of horses he doesn\'t ride as well.
Silver Charm---
The traffic (Matriarch field of 14) certainly did not hurt HH on Sunday. Again, it\'s amazing she closed in :22 while weaving in and out.
Good Luck,
Joe B.