The deeper we get into the Derby trail, the more I like Orb as my Derby horse:
5 reasons:
1) he has already run a TG fig that will likely be fast enough to win the race so I don\'t have to rely on a horse moving forward to win the Derby. We all know the studies that say only a few horses in each Derby field run a new top in the Derby for many reasons so we really want a horse that has already proven they are fast enough to win and he has
2) he has the luxury of coming into the Derby the right way. Shug won\'t have to have him fully cranked for his final prep because he has already earned enough points and Shug certainly knows how to bring a horse into a big race the right way. I think this is probably the most misunderstood issue on the derby trail. A horse who looks great in the final prep gets alot of action on Derby day but when they are all in to run that number in the final race, it\'s less likely they can repeat it on Derby day (regardless of the pattern). So many of the top horses will need a top effort in their final prep to get into the Derby (i.e. Itsmyluckyday, etc) that it\'s unlukcly they can stay at that level for the next 7 weeks.
3) Pedigree wise, he\'s as qualified to get the mile and a quarter as any of them
4) he has a jock who has won the race before on a horse with a similar running style which I think is very important. Johnny V isn\'t going to choke on Derby Day coming from off of it. He\'s been there before.
5) I love horses that have overcome a bias and even though the pace was hot in his last, no one else closed that day at GP. running against a bias is one of the only other things I consider as a handicapper other than TG figs and I put a big emphasis on it.
I hope ORb runs a dull 3rd in the Florida Derby because Shug doesn\'t have him cranked or because the track is a conveyor belt and we can get high single digits on him in the Derby.
Only caveat is that if Pletcher can get Verazzano to the Derby healthy, they are all running for second as none of this crop is in his zip code but I don\'t think it\'s likely that he can stay sound that long. Not saying he won\'t run, just that he won\'t be the same horse in 7 weeks that we saw in that GP allowance or even in the Tampa Bay Derby. And that\'s no knock on Pletcher or anything, no one can keep a young horse running that fast completely sound for 3 months, it\'s impossible.
6- His running style fits with what is usually a fast paced ten furlongs.
7- Post isn\'t an issue since he drops back out of it.
traffic/ground loss could be an issue.
Traffic/ground loss indeed.
But that aside-- Jim, what makes you think he\'s run fast enough already to win? Not only have some horses already run faster, some may in the next 4 weeks. This is when we start finding out.
I don\'t want to comment further right now, but remind me to revisit this post after the last Derby futures pool closes.
Re Orb-- if he does bounce in his last prep he\'ll look something like Monarchos.
Yes, if so he would look like Monarchos and perhaps to a lesser degree I\'ll Have Another. Notwithstanding those successes, generally not a great pattern coming into the Derby, right? Based on what one can learn from the Archives, there\'s a better than 50/50 chance (14/26) a horse with that pattern X\'s out in the Derby. That pattern has produced no new tops in the Derby, and only 4 of the 26 who showed it (Prime Timber in 1999, Monarchos, Imperialism in 2004 and I\'ll Have Another) were able to pair.
All,
Love the dialog. Thamks for the thoughts.
Just a quick thought before my next meeting but
JB, I don\'t think the faster ones will make it to the derby and/or make it in one piece and just as I argued this time last year with I\'ll have another, he will have had plenty of time to get over the 1 by the time may 4th rolls around
Finally, if shug doesn\'t have him wound tight, then if he runs a 3 in the fla derby, I don\'t consider that a bounce.
Re ground loss, definitely an issue but that\'s where Johnny comes in. He knows how to ride a horse from off the pace in the derby.
This year\'s crop is miles better than last year\'s, and last year\'s didn\'t get stronger over the next 3 months. This one might.
You\'re counting those remsen horses as part of the \"fast\" ones and most of the rest of us are not.
Maybe the figures aren\'t right or maybe those horses were knocked out by too fast too soon efforts but its hard for me to include those horses right now.
Maybe overanalyze will run big this weekend and Normandy invasion will progress forward in the wood but at this point, I wouldn\'t be surprised if neither of them made the derby so that race might be irrelevant in 2 weeks.
Take out those 3 remsen horses and verazanno who neither one of us thinks Will make it to the gate and this crop is no different than last year.
Jim,
If he does run an off race in the Florida Derby, what reliable metrics would we use to determine whether Shug had him wound tight or not?
Its a great question
Part of it is looking at the horse myself and asking others I trust to look at the horse and compare how he looks in the fla derby with how he looks derby week
That said, I don\'t think there\'s any way shug has him cranked for fla derby.
Some trainers know how to point their horses for a big race. Nafger was a Master. He taught his asst Ian Wilkes to do the same. Shug is right there and them some in this category
To me, his next race figure is irrelevant.
Even if he does \"bounce\" in the truest sense of the word, just like IHA last year, he will have had a long time to recover from the big figure.
I was not counting the Remsen horses, despite having absolute confidence in the figures. Talking about 3yo figures only.
All these things are a matter of percentages. As you saw here , I make Verazzano 50/50 to make the race. But he has SOME chance of winning, as do other fast horses. And Orb-- who just ran a 6 point new top-- has some percentage chance of being knocked out.
Re the Remsen, I\'m having a hard time believing you guys are making a decision about that race after seeing a horse get eased and two others run 3 points off a huge figure in spots they clearly weren\'t being aimed for. Good thing you guys don\'t make figures.
I don\'t think any of us claimed to be figure makers and you seemed to be missing the part about how I said maybe the figs are correct but those efforts knocked these horses out.
As I said, maybe overanalyze and Normandy invasion run big next two weeks but you thought Delhomme would run this weekend as per rotw so you can\'t say that the efforts aren\'t disappointing so far.
If you think a trainer has one of the favorites for a million dollar GI, a horse that hasn\'t won one and needs a GI to be a stallion, and isn\'t trying to win that race, you better rethink it.
He has 5 weeks after that to the Derby. Is he going to kill the horse now? No. Will he be tight and pointed for the Fla Derby? Yes. If he goes back it\'s a reaction to the top, not by design.
What I actually said about Delhomme was \"he\'s getting a late start, probably not by design, so it\'s hard to know what he\'ll produce off the bench\". I definitely did not say he would run, my position was given the post and weights if he did run he was going to win-- based on both his route figures, not just the last one. I haven\'t done the day yet but I would be surprised if it turned out a 4 for him at the weights with the Lukas horses wide wouldn\'t have won, given slow horses were not that far back.
A similar situation happened with Take Charge Indy in last year\'s Derby, where he got hurt in a situation where any kind of good effort with the trip he got would have won.
You think those owners would rather win fla derby and get stallion money or win the big one?
Those owners burn the money they would get for a stallion deal in their fire places every night
I didn\'t read the individual horse comments. I just read the conclusion where you made Delhomme the \"most likely winner\" so i assumed you expected him to run well given that you thought he was \"most likely winner\"
There\'s a guy on this site thinks they might not go to KY even if they win at GP. There\'s almost no chance they go if he doesn\'t win or run big.
Well, that\'s one of the many things that makes this a great game.
Everyone is entitled to their opinion and gets to put their money where their thoughts are
Heck, i could be way off base.
I am just offering opinions
I won\'t be playing him in fla derby but I think he is very live for ky no matter what happens in fla.
Jim,
Leaving aside the trainer intent question that you and Jerry have covered, there is also the trainer performance issue. I doubt whether it is possible for even the best of trainers to make the very fine adjustments in preparation that would be required to have a thoroughbred run in the middle of a campaign what is a really good race (let's say a 3 for Orb) but not pair his top or run a new one. Any trainer would us tell there is a greater risk of injury when under-training a horse in the way that would be necessary to achieve that goal. How else could it be achieved? Seems like a lot to risk particularly with such a valuable young horse who is primed to become a stud.
I know what you are saying about trainers getting horses ready to run in big races. Still, the guys who brought horses into the Derby off the sort of line we are discussing only to fall completely apart in the race is not exactly a dinner for schmucks roster. It includes guys who know something about priming a horse for a big race, such as Mott, Lukas, Shirreffs, Hollendorfer, Zito, Baffert and Kiaran.
Shug said something after he won his last indicating ambivelance, along the lines of he has to much respect for the Derby to run a horse that doesn\'t have a chance, something like that. If he finishes third beaten 4 lengths-- which will probably happen if he bounces 2 points-- he\'s very unlikely to go.
I know you\'re gonna think this is crazy, but not everyone has Derby fever.
Great discussion. I have to agree with Jerry/Caradoc on this one Jim. I have the greatest respect for Shug but horses can\'t be \"dialed in\" like setting your watch no matter how good the trainer is. Sure, a horse can be left short for a race that is a prep but can we really consider that an owner or trainer or jockey for that matter will not go for a win in a Grade 1 for a cool million.
And, consider the horse. He\'s not an Olympic athlete who can call up a 90% effort because he knows he will need a 100% effort in the next race. He\'s going full out and trying as hard as he can so to that point, the Florida Derby for ORB will be an effort.
I actually agree with you that ORB is very, very interesting right now for the Derby. I\'ll wait to see what kind of number he runs in Fla Derby - hope for a pair or a number close to his last and trust that Shug/owners don\'t go all aristocratic on us and put him in the gate.
michael
\"All aristocratic on us\"
What a great line that is. Love it.
Thanks for the thoughts.
I think Nafger did it with both unbridled and street sense who both lost grade 1\'s by not being fuly cranked for the final preps and Wilkes did it with fort larned this year for the classic but I definitely get the point that its hard to do.
Gonna be alot of fun to see how this plays out
Agree JB, but Shug will openly tell you it\'s his number one dream to win the derby.Said that after a few brews at the SPA,like 7-8 years ago.
He believes this horse has a real shot and has not shown any outward sign of going back out of that last race.Also agree Orb must run well in the Fla Derby to go on.
Guys,many trainers can point for a race fairly well but horses just don\'t come with an off/on switch.You need much luck to avoid a myriad of even minor problems that can arise leading up to any race.
Years after the fact Bobby Frankel lamented about the rather minor trouble that cost Empire Maker the derby.In the latter part of his career,he was deadly \"pointing one\"
Only thing missing from this discussion I think is a deeper look at what his running style actually is. Not sure if ppl realize this, but Orb ran a 22+change SECOND quarter in this race and was slowing considerably in the quarters afterwards, his move by Violence really more an optical illusion than a true layback closer getting to an early speed horse.
If he runs this style of race in a Derby field of 20, he will definitely not be the deep closer many ppl are making him out to be in his last race. His 2 races prior to that, his other 2 victories, he sat very close to the pace with the exception of the first call.
Tread,
It\'s a great point and one that miff may to me earlier today in a different discussion. I think you guys are both right.
With merrit man going in the fla derby, he may be coming from far back again. Small field there buts tons of pace. SB and lucky day both fly early as well.
Jim,
Very bad news for you. Maybe the worst. I am in complete agreement with about every post you wrote on this thread, I could have written them. From the Fairgrounds race to Orb, to thinking that I won\'t bet him in the Fla. Derby and then will like him in the Kentucky Derby, at hopefully a better price.
I say bad news, because lately I am in \"uber-mush\" zone, likely surpassing even TGAB, which ain\'t easy.
TGJB, what odds would you lay right now, that Orb runs in the Derby? Yes, Shug wouldn\'t chase the Derby with a horse that hadn\'t proven himself. This one, with his last race and distance pedigree, need only not embarass himself next time out to have already proven he belongs.
As for many/most on this board over-reacting to the Remsen (your view), exactly how many short priced horses would you like us gamblers to bet on before we start to discount the race and/or figure? Overanalyze was the chalk, Normandy Invasion was a very short chalk and Delhomme was 3rd choice. For those that were \"on board\" early with this opinion of the race, a ton of money could have been made, while you wait for more figures to come in. (I understand for your purposes, you need more data, but gamblers can\'t wait, it is too late to react after all the evidence is in). As Jim pointed out, it really doesn\'t matter to us whether the figure is wrong, or the horses just ran too fast too soon, either way they have been dead pieces. As for Normandy Invasion, he COULD run better next time out, but I will be willing to bet that there will be no value in betting that he does. Too many people are willing to forgive his last race, for him to become a \"good bet\" (that is a guess, have to wait till 5 minutes to post to see if that is true or not).
Jim, the only thing I worry about with Orb, besides injury of course, is that his bandwagon is pretty full. He was 12-1 ML last time, and I was thrilled to bet him at that price, but then was shocked to see him as the 2nd choice in the will pays to the pick-3 I had bet.
Thread, the fact that the horse has the versatility to run a 22 second 2nd quarter, when he needs to, on a track like Gulfstream, just adds to his appeal IMO. He won\'t be near a hot Derby pace. Racing 1 1/4 at Churchill is way different than 1 1/16 at glib Gulfstream.
Jim
I bet against Overanalyze and Normandy Invasion last time.
Tread
I think a lot of the horses in the FOY were running sub 23 second quarters if you look at the chart.
Orb breaking from the rail was seventh at the first call of that race in front of only the Cali shipper from the 8 hole who didn\'t have much gate speed and the Barry Rose 120-1 shot who I might be able to beat into the turn.
In four of his races he\'s been last at the first call and in his other one he was ninth of ten.I\'m guessing in a fast paced ten furlong race at CD you\'d find him dropping out the back early and doing his best running late.
Slower paced allowance race at GP he\'s versatile enough to stay close or even in the FOY because of the strip they want him to stay in contact but in the Derby I think a different ballgame.If he makes it there.
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"All aristocratic on us\"
>
> What a great line that is. Love it.
>
> Thanks for the thoughts.
>
> I think Nafger did it with both unbridled and
> street sense who both lost grade 1\'s by not being
> fuly cranked for the final preps and Wilkes did it
> with fort larned this year for the classic but I
> definitely get the point that its hard to do.
>
> Gonna be alot of fun to see how this plays out
With all due respect, I am not so sure this is an accurate rendition of what Nafzger or Wilkes did. Admittedly the sample size is small and the three horses are very very different, but they do not look to me like the horses were not cranked up in their final preps. I do not know whether trainers can \"throttle\" a horse back or not and am not talking about whether that is possible or not. I am only saying that these three examples do not look to me like last preps were the horse was not wound up.
Unbridled\'s prep before the Derby was the bluegrass where he matched his lifetime top. Matching a lifetime top does not look to me like he was eased up on. With the benefit of knowing his big jump up new top in the Derby, maybe you can look back and say he was eased up on going into the Blue Grass, but if you put your thumb over the Derby Figure, he looks like a horse being pushed to develop....not being eased up on. The sheet is in the archives and speaks for itself.
Street Sense is a completely different horse. He ran fast enough to win the Derby as a 2yo, so in the course of his three year old prepping (which consisted of only 2 races) development and new tops were not in any way a consideration. I think that if Street Sense had run a new top before the Derby, people would have thought that Nafzger was crazy. Thus, it seems like Nafzger purposefully gave Street Sense a longer than 4 month break between his last 2yo race and his first 3yo race. My guess is that by giving him such a big break before racing him again, he knew the horse would be rusty and need a race or two before getting back to his prior form. Maybe that can be viewed as easing up on him, but I do not think you can characterize the Blue Grass as an easing up from the Tampa Bay Derby. They were both very fast figures for a pre-Derby 3yo (1.5 and 2.25). The only possible sense you could look at the 2.25 and say it was an easing up is to simply look only at the number and ignore a lot of other important factors. The Tampa race was Grade III and the Blue Grass was Grade I. Street Sense won the Grade III by a nose and lost the Grade I Blue Grass by a nose. I would contend that the 2.25 in the Bluegrass was a better performance than the 1.5 at Tampa. The Blue Grass was run on an artificial surface that simply was not producing comparable figures to dirt at the time. This was especially true at that time because all jockeys seemed to conclude that the best way to race was to crawl early together. This particular Blue Grass had an EXTREMELY slow pace....first half was 51 and 2 and the three quarters was 1:16 and 3..it got a deserved slow pace designation on the sheet. On top of that, he was 4w4w so he was actually running faster fractions than the horses inside of him on the turns YET he had to close into their crawling (slower than his) fractions. While the 2.25 is slower than 1.5 in absolute terms, if you take into consideration the surface switch, the pace, the fact that he had to close into such a pace while running faster fractions, and yet he only lost a better prep race by a nose, I do not think it is fair to say that race reflects an easing up or not having him wound up for the race. Again, he did come back to his 2yo top and win the Derby next out, but I view that as more of a function of the 4 month layoff and 2 prep plan. If the Blue Grass had been run on Dirt in normal conditions, it could have easily been something like a zero or certainly faster than a 1.5.
As far as Fort Larned, with exception of one race where he had an excuse (in June), he ran 5 straight minus 1s going into the classic. In the Classic, he ran a minus 1.75. Again, the only way you can say he was easing up on him in the last prep is if you look in retrospect based on the new top in the classic. There is no way handicapping the classic you could look at that sheet and say he did not have him wound up before.
If you want to credit Derby winning trainers with not having their horses fully cranked up in their last Derby prep, it would seem to be by perusing the archives, that you need to credit D. Wayne Lukas (Thunder Gulch), John Ward (Monarchos), and John Servis (Smarty Jones). I have never heard anybody say that D. Wayne Lukas eases up on horses on the Derby Trail, but, if you are looking for horses who appear to have \"managed\" reactions prior to their Derby win, Thunder Gulch is a real candidate. N.B. I did not include Swale because his bad prep was obviously either a result of the sloppy surface or some other issue where his ease up was actually a clear X.
SoCal,
Thanks for the thoughtful response. Great points. This is turning into a much more interesting dialogue than I expected as I dont\' think this is a controversial issue at all.
I think we all may have to agree to disagree on this one.
I have 100% absolute belief that one of the arts of training a horse is having a horse ready to run their best races on the biggest days.
Some of the things a trainer can do or not do when wanting to have a horse fully cranked for a race include:
1) breezing them more often than normal (every 6 days instead of every 7 or 8)
2) stronger longer gallops in between breezes as opposesed to lighter gallops, just jogging or so called \"half and half\" (just jogging for half of the morning work and then galloping for the rest of the morning work)
3) Breezing in company as oppossed to alone (huge huge difference here)
4) length of breezes (6 and 7f breezes obviously get a horse fitter than 4 and 5f breezes)
5) how much a trainer tells the exerecise rider to gallop out after the breeeze (ie. shut down right after the wire or keep going all the way around the turn
6) then (and this is the most important one), there is ALOT of LEGAL I repeat LEGAL vet work that can be done on a horse that allows them to perform at the top level. Maybe Sight or others would like to go into detail on such things but the key here is that alot of these legal things that can be done have diminishing marginal impact. The more you do it, the less it helps. Waiting to do the vet work before the big race instead of the prep can make all the difference in the world.
These are just some of the things that I think a trainer can do or not do to have a horse primed for a top effort (or not). There\'s no way Shug is going to dial up all of these knobs for the Florida Derby.
Orb may pair up in the Fla Derby just like Fort Larned did before the classic but I know that Wilkes didn\'t dial up all of the knobs before the classic and I know Nafger didn\'t do it with either of his Derby winners either. MAybe if Shug dialed up all the knobs, Orb could run a 2 negative next weekend so pairing shouldn\'t be confused with being fully cranked.
Let me end it by turning the issue to first time starters. If trainers don\'t have the ability to manage whether horses are ready for big efforts or not, why do some trainers win 25% with first time starters and others win 3% with first time starters. Do we think Wesley Ward knows that much more about training that Bill Mott?
All fun stuff to talk about, no better time of year!
One thing I don\'t get about the \"not fully cranked\" view of training, especially in regard to Orb, is why run the horse at all?
If he\'s ready now, just train him up to the Derby rather than run the risk of injury overextending against a couple of really fast horses. If he needs to get something out of another race, doesn\'t he need to be \"fully cranked\" to get that benefit? The horse likely has the points, so that not the issue. If he\'s not all in for the Florida Derby, he won\'t get a serious paycheck or the Grade 1 by his name either.
Seems like if a trainer doesn\'t want or need a horse at 100% for this race, the safest choice is not to race.
the answer to that one is easy
he needs to get the fitness out of a race
you can\'t get the same fitness level out of breezing a horse as you do racing a horse
you can\'t run a 1 1/4 off of 1 1 1/16 race 10 weeks before the Derby. Heck, only a few years ago, Matz was crucified before the Derby for bringing Babaro in off 6 weeks.
I think there\'s a misconception here that I am saying Shug will run a short horse next weekend.
that\'s not what I am saying at all. there\'s a huge difference between between \"fully cranked\" for a race and running a short horse. In other words, you can crank some of the dials but not all of them.
Lots of differences of opinion if you talk to enough trainers. Of Nafzager, a noted NY trainer told me he was nuts for jogging/galloping horses the day after they raced.Most walk.
Of Tricky, who often blew out a horse 3f the morning of the race,he was called clueless by another NY trainer.
Jim points out the different and generous legal weapons available to trainers, some used sparingly, some very liberally.Gambling outfits will race a horse cold a start or two,then use all the legal stuff in the third start and bet their money.
At the end if the day and in the long run it comes down to the ability of the horse, the trainers skill,the vets legal help.
Mike
Jim,
We can agree to disagree and that is fine. I just want to be clear about the issue and also to see whether your example really supports the point. The issue is not generally whether trainers try to point a horse for a given race but instead whether a trainer in a campaign can make the very fine adjustments necessary for a horse to under-perform, but only slightly so, to get the horse really ready for the race after. Getting a horse ready for a race off a long layoff or any of the other topics raised in this thread are interesting but not the main one.
Fort Larned came into the BC Classic with a top of negative 1¼, which he had run in 5 of his prior 6 starts. The only time he had failed to run that race was in the Stephen Foster, when he had experienced a lot of trouble at the start; the fact that this trouble really bothered him was evident by his race two weeks later in the Cornhusker, when he immediately repeated his top. Let's say that Wilkes told the entire world before the JCGC that he FL wasn't fully cranked up for the race, that he was using it as a prep for the BC Classic. If he had said that it would have been strange for a number of reasons, including that the winners purse for the JCGC was 600K, it was a Grade I, and who knows for certain how many races any thoroughbred left? On top of that FL had been in training for over a year and half and there could be no assurance that he would stay together one more race for the BC Classic. Still, assume that Wilkes had not dialed the knobs for the JCGC but then tried to do so for the BC Classic. How then do you explain that despite the different preparation methods he paired his top in both races?
Caradoc,
Get your point but you are using the figures as science,they are not.Dont want to set off another string but all paired figs are not necessarily equal racetrack performances.
Mike
Maybe a 3 isn\'t always a 3 (a 3 run by a speed horse contesting a hot pace as opposed to a 3 run by a closer into a hot pace) but beyond those, what are the bases for a handicapper to make the sort of adjustments or interpretations that are necessary in the FL example? Why in his case is there a difference in the negative ones he kept running over and over again?
Caradoc,
If you watch enough races, understand track speed and race dynamics,good old common racing sense is pretty good.App 22% of the time, the top fig makers disagree by more than the value of one TG point.What do you think that means as to using any fig as Gospel?
Mike
Mike,
I get all that, as my example of how in certain circumstances a 3 may not be a 3 indicates, but that has nothing to do with the example Jim raised and the one I\'m trying to discuss. That example is FL\'s races in the JCGC and BC Classic, in which at least on TG (and I thought we were using the numbers at least as the starting point for analysis) were pairs, and were the same number on the page as he had run virtually all year.
Car,
Get your point and Jim\'s as well.A trainer may finds a certain MO to be successful for them.If Wilkes purposely tried to not have FL at his best and he still ran a paired fig( but not win) well then that sort of speaks to how tough it is to have a horse run precisely to the trainers preparation.
Seriously don\'t think there\'s an answer to this if that\'s what you are looking for. On this particular trainer issue, why is it that these issues come up with the talented/fast horses they train vs the slugs they train, get it? Look at the lifetime stats of Nafzager/Wilkes,pretty common, outside of a few very talanted/fast runners.What would be said of Nafzager, for example, if Unbridled or Street Sense did not show up in his barn?
Guess you can see I believe it\'s mostly about the horse, not too much about who trains them.
Cardoc,
I think the concept gets easier to get your head around (at least for me) if we leave out the good older horses who consistently run negative numbers and aren\'t suppossed to be getting any faster with each race and instead focus on young, developing 3 year olds who should, according to JB, pair or top with relative frequency.
for a young, healthy horse that suppossed to be getting better each race or every other race, this issue of how much a trainer wants them to move forward in a given race is more relevant.
As I said, some trainers have their firsters ready to fire huge first out (look at the Pletcher firster out of Wait a While last weekend). You think that horse would have run a 99 beyer (sorry JB don\'t know the thorograph number on that one) if Mott trained that horse. Obviously not.
So, pletcher got the horse fully or nearly fully cranked first out which is why so many of his go backward during their 3 year old campaigns and why he is 1-31 in the Derry with Super Saver as the only winner (sorry Jimbo, I know it still hurts).
Let\'s take Verazzano, does anyone think that Verazzano (am I spelling it right yet?)would have run a 2 negative in his second start if Shug was his trainer? No chance.
I think the horse would have likely gotten to the 2 negative eventually if Shug or Mott trained him but it might have come later in the year than Pletcher got it out of him.
So, if Orb got sold after the FOY and trainsferred to the Pletcher barn, I think his chances of running a new top would be alot higher next weekend than with Shug as his trainer. Not because I think Pletcher is better than Shug but because he turns the dials up to their highest levels in every race.
Is is a coincidence that the only horse Pletcher won with in the Derby is the one he was forced to go slow with early in that horses 3 year old year because of some physical issues he was dealing with? He couldn\'t fully crank super saver for the preps (which is why he was still moving forward at Derby time) compared to all of the others that were over the top by the time the Derby rolled around.
Jimbo, apologies again about the Super Saver analogies but it\'s just too fun!
Miff-- if it\'s really true that the other figure makers agree with us 78% of the time what it means is they got better. And I\'m sorry to hear it.
Jim-- while I agree that trainers do point for races and totally crank up for them, that\'s a totally different issue from dialing back. I doubt very much trainers are doing that. (I don\'t think there\'s a chance in hell Wilkes was worrying about the BC before the JC. At that point the JC was a very big deal, the BC was in California and he can\'t have expected to win it).
To believe Shug is doing that you would have to believe he\'s changed EVERYTHING from when he trained Easy Goer, who ran on 2 weeks rest in the Gotham, Wood, Derby and Preakness. Instead, what he and everyone else has done is pay more attention to spacing (in which my efforts on Post Time probably played a part). They deal with the big effort question by giving the horses more time to recover-- like 5 weeks from the Fla Derby to Kentucky.
From Haskins. Seems he at least agrees with Jim that Orb won\'t be \"fully cranked\" on Saturday.
\"No pressure on him at all in the Florida Derby. He already has enough projected points and with his style of running, he only needs to be closing at the end to set him up for the Derby. If he wins, fine. Knowing McGaughey, he's more interested in having him peak on the first Saturday in May, and the way he's been progressing with each race he seems ready to do just that.\"
Lol
I knew I thought Haskin was really smart :)
Jim,
It seems some in the thread mistook \"not fully cranked\" for \"dialed down\". I, and Steve, know the difference.
James:
Is it true that if Orb and Data Link, both owned by the Phipps/Janney partnership
that has operated the Bessemer Trust since 1907, have outstanding years, that the
minimum participation in Bessemer will be cut in half ... to 5 million dollars?
Bee,
Re Phipps/Janney,disingenuous phonies,called out by TAP after using lasix on the \"moved up\" ORB while railing against Lasix for many months.Blowhard Phipps would tell anyone who would listen that the cheats,indirect shot at TAP,are using illegal stuff which is why the slow one paced Phipps slugs were no factor for years.
Data Link,Point Of Entry,Orb put Phipps back in game of late.Gov Andrew had his elitist rear end banished from NYRA Board where his influence was over bearing on NY racing and the elistist Jockey Club.
Mike
Ease up on the sugar coating, Mike. Don\'t want people thinking you have gone soft.
And you meant Andrew, not poppa, yes?
Bob
Magic,
Just a NY guy calling a spade a spade.Gov.Andrew picked up the original fight of dad Mario who failed to break up the Upstate Republican wasp elitists who controlled NY racing for many years.NY Racing Game very much in neutral now Bob,poor upside, poker etc stole racing\'s gambling lunch, so to speak, while the elitists Lords Of Racing were asleep at the wheel.
New head of NYRA racing to bring governance, okie dokie.Presently nothing of note on the players side happening, no take out review, no transparency issues et al. Several committees appointed on horse safety,surface review, some stuff on medication rules.That should really spike attendance and handle!!
Gov.Andrew has a firm death grip on NY racing/gambling with all of his hand picked people in power on a day to day basis. Not very good for racing Bob, a Gov. who would not even come to acknowledge the great NY tradition of the Travers where many of us \"regular\" people are.
Two very wealthy friends on mine are knee deep in NY racing(app $120 million invested) are very concerned that Gov. Andrew could throw racing under the bus without hesitation for political reasons,as early as tomorrow.
Mike
Orb fans, please bet \"extra\" on Saturday.
DRF:Mike Welch
INDIANTOWN, Fla. – One visit to Payson Park and it's easy to see why Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey has used the training center located approximately 90 miles north of Gulfstream Park as his major base of operations in south Florida for the past 30 years.
One horse who has enjoyed the wide-open spaces and crisp, clean air at Payson Park as much as any this winter has been Orb. Already virtually assured of a spot in this year's Kentucky Derby field as a result of the 50 points he earned for his victory in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth, Orb will go off among the favorites along with Itsmyluckyday and Shanghai Bobby in Saturday's $1 million Florida Derby.
[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]
With co-owner Dinny Phipps in attendance, Orb had his final tune-up for the Florida Derby on Monday morning at Payson, breezing four furlongs under regular exercise rider Jenn Patterson in 48.89 seconds in company with stablemate Overwhelming. The pair went along as a team through a 24.68-second opening quarter-mile, with Orb asserting his superiority through the final furlong, finishing willingly without the need of any encouragement before galloping out a strong five-eighths in 1:01.29. He barely took a deep breath upon returning to the barn several minutes later, looking fresh, cool, and like he could go right back out and do it all over again.
"I was tickled to death with the work," said McGaughey. "He was just galloping, I thought he galloped out really, really well. I think we're in good shape."
[FLORIDA DERBY: Get PPs, watch Saturday\'s full card live]
McGaughey said being at Payson has been a big plus for Orb, who he says has grown and gotten even stronger since his victory in the Fountain of Youth.
"I think it's really helped him since he shipped down for the winter," said McGaughey. "I could see the difference the first time we worked him here. And the conditions are so good. It was already 77 degrees and humid when I left home early this morning, and now it's at least 10 degrees cooler with no humidity at all."
Although Orb is among the favorites for both the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby, neither McGaughey nor his owner are looking beyond the Florida Derby just yet.
"I'm one who doesn't get Derby fever," said Phipps, who owns Orb in partnership with Stuart Janney III. "I won't have any thoughts about that until we see what happens on Saturday. We'll know after Saturday how good he is. We're not going to go to the Derby unless we think he belongs. I don't want to run in the Derby just to be an also-ran."
Mike, while we often differ on issues, I always appreciate the way you call a spade a spade. And here we generally agree. This is a Hobson\'s choice. The people who brought New York racing to its sorry state, versus the elected official who will take it god knows where. Both options stink, and I don\'t see any \"third way\". If I had significant sums tied up in NY racing, I would not be sleeping great. - Bob