As much as I hate to drop the discussion about how \"well\" Normandy Invasion ran in the Fairgrounds race and how the Remsen is not a negative key race, does anybody connect any dots as to why the top Pletcher 2 year olds are coming back so poorly.
Is it just precocious pedigrees that figured to not progress? Just the law of averages with keeping these fragile animals in top form?
Shanghai Bobby ran fine, but the rest have been pretty poor.
I\'d still love to see some formal comments from the Delhomme camp as to what happened, as he was clearly amiss and didn\'t run anything close to his overall ability. The only thing I\'ve seen so far is that he was extremely agitated in the paddock, perhaps knowing he was about to be thrown into a situation he hated last year.
Perhaps with him, Overanalyze, and maybe even NI too (we\'ll see) they all ran so hard in the Remsen at a too young an age and it was painful for them and created a negative mental block on racing during an age where they will never be right again. This might explain NIs rankness in the Risen Star and Delhomme\'s paddock antics yesterday.
I\'m also reminded of another horse, think his name was Codoy, ran a turf route 2 as a 2yr old and seemed destined to be a major stakes player, but was never able to come close to duplicating it again on many tries.
Or maybe it caused physical problems (but with Overanalyze running back that doesn\'t seem to be right), I guess we don\'t really know for sure. Some horses like Street Sense can run a big number at 2 and get back to it. But as you mentioned, more often than not it seems they can\'t.
The first three finishers in the Remsen ran a number that is for most 2yos at best a stopping point and at worst a big setback point. Remember how long it took To Honor and Serve and Mucho Macho Man to get back to the big numbers they ran in the Remsen?
Small point, but the Street Sense comparison is misleading as he ran his number in the pre-2009 steroid era.
Jimbo66,
First time poster here, longtime reader for nearly a decade.
Trying to make distinctions and fine line decisions (connecting the dots) about Pletcher horses is nearly impossble for me. A friend of mine once stated a somewhat viable theory when you reflect on his 3yo\'s at Gulfstream (Florida): Pletcher brings out his first timers at Gulfstream \"on top\" and they can maintain that form for only two races, **every once in a great while** three times.
As for his 2yos that comeback as 3yos, I don\'t believe you can make a connection between precocity, law of averages, too fast too soon, etc. However, I do wonder if the same idea applies: That Pletcher brings his 2yo firsters out as fast as they can be and it is very difficult for them to maintain that level even with the big layoff. I do believe that the large fields of the Points System Derby Prep Season has hurt his ability to find easy spots for grading earnings.
Few interesting stats: Pletcher has lost 15 in a row at Oaklawn according to Robert Yates of the Arkansas Democrat Gazette. Equibase records show that at Churchill Downs Spring Meet 2012, Pletcher was 0-17 and the Churchill Downs Fall Meet 2012, Pletcher was 0-19. At Gulfstream 2011-2012 Winter Meet, 40% winners and this Winter Meet at Gulf, 31% winners.
All I can discern anymore is that jurisdiction matters when Pletcher\'s name is listed as the trainer of record for an entrant. Beyond that, I can\'t make heads or tail of his horses, this week\'s ROTW a perfect example.
If those OP and especially CD stats are right they\'re pretty damn interesting.
It will be interesting to see what happens Derby week, he figures to have a starter or two.
Who cares is my answer. What\'s the big deal with these prep races? It\'s just another race in my book. Everybody gets so damn uptight. I read about every excuse and every stat about why a horse lost. We should forget about the other 9 races on the card. There were a 1000 races run yesterday, didn\'t anyone make a score or hit something big? Is anybody winning? I say, Lets hear some Chatter!! God forbid somebody give out their own selection. Otherwise all we\'ll read is more excuses about a horses\' performance, restaurant recommendations, NYRA corruption, drug voilations, etc.
I know why I am here, to make money betting horses!!!!! I get no extra credit for hitting the Derby or any of its prep races.
BTW ... If Pletcher had 19 out of the 20 horses in the Derby I still wouldn\'t bet on him.
Revolutionary and Violence ran just fine. And Palice Malice and Capo Bastone haven\'t covered themselves in shame either.
If you have a lot of good two year olds, you\'re going to have a lot of three year old busts.
Shanghai Bobby: 2nd by 2 lengths behind track record setter in 1:41.81. Fast pace from rail at even money (1:10.69 through 6f), competitive when challenged, well clear of 3rd place. Winner reminiscent of Hey Byrn....Bobby continued to fight after being passed.
Violence: Competitive when challenged, ran \"admirably\" but fractured his ankle in defeat to Orb, who according to some had a perfect setup pace-wise while others say Orb was the only closer on the day running against a bias. Violence continued to fight after being passed. Grade 1 winner\'s career is over, Stud Value.
Verrezzano: No 2yo form. 3 top notch efforts that look almost \"effortless\" all in Florida. I hope he makes that starting gate as heavy fav in Louisville cause I\'ll be betting AGAINST. Has never been passed in the stretch.
Overanalyze: An absolute \"no show\" in Gotham at 8/5. Appeared to have no response whatsoever in the stretch.
Revolutionary: Unusual four tries to break his maiden for TAP but once he dd he fired another big shot with so-called \"adventurous\" trip in Withers from last to first stretch run. Ran \"bravely\" in stretch to split horses.
Palice Malice: Interesting first two turn route in Louisana on a track I deem quirky based on moisture that weekend and raw time issues compared to other races on the day. Finshed 3rd. Continued hard to the wire despite deep close by winner past Baffert charge and this one.
Capo Bastone: Not in TAP\'s care as a 2yo. Comeback was an amazing time of 1:48.16 if only it was at 1 1/8 miles, not 1 1/16. In his defense, he was wide throughout both turns, possibly 5w first turn. But was able to get past the loose on the lead winner in the stretch and stay on to defeat that horse who has done nothing since when being placed over his head.
Forty Tales: Just missed in the Hutcheson after closing with a rush to get 2nd. Ran an abysmal 5th at even money at Gulf in the Swale. Winner Clearly Now of the Swale came out of the Holy Bull race with Bobby and \'luckyday. One huge effort at Gulf for Pletcher, then an \"off\" effort.
Park City: Ran terrbly at Tampa when Pletcher said he would scratch if all was well with Verrazzano. Did he lie to us?
Delhomme: Ran terrible at Oaklawn after 3 months off. \"Distanced.\"
Those are the 3yo\'s I\'ve paid attention to thus far from Pletcher\'s barn this year. Verrazano is this year\'s Eskendreya, Uncle Mo, Dunkirk, Gemologist, Etc etc although I will note that one noted vet tweeted after Verrazzano\'s big Tampa Bay Derby win. This is the same story every year with the same result excepting Super Saver. An interview with Pletcher about how game Delhomme and Overanalyze were in the controversial (on this site) Remsen stakes is on HRTV\'s website. Watch the replay of the stretch run of Delhomme and Overanalyze in the Remsen, neither of which replicated that \"gameness\" in their comeback 3yo races as jimbo probably is referencing to start this thread.
On an unrelated note, has anyone seen a famous vet discuss Ken Ramsey using the product Lubrisyn for humans for his own knees to avoid knee replacements? You can\'t make this stuff up. Just start with a table spoon......
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYQV9-8t3KU
What did a noted Vet tweet after Tampa?? Clarify please.....and thanks
Cut and pasted from Twitter, with a date of March 9
Dr. Steve Allday @Fourlegsdoc
Just in case you missed it today, Verrazano showed us what the BEST stable in America does in Derby preps. Team Pletcher does it AGAIN!
_____________________________________________________
Then on March 15, his next tweet which I find somewhat \"cryptic\"
Dr. Steve Allday @Fourlegsdoc
Under the impression that lots of trainers across America are having difficulty racing without Salix? \"Everything changes with time!\" Adapt!
fjmb Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Who cares is my answer. What\'s the big deal with
> these prep races? It\'s just another race in my
> book. Everybody gets so damn uptight. I read
> about every excuse and every stat about why a
> horse lost. We should forget about the other 9
> races on the card. There were a 1000 races run
> yesterday, didn\'t anyone make a score or hit
> something big? Is anybody winning? I say, Lets
> hear some Chatter!! God forbid somebody give out
> their own selection. Otherwise all we\'ll read is
> more excuses about a horses\' performance,
> restaurant recommendations, NYRA corruption, drug
> voilations, etc.
>
> I know why I am here, to make money betting
> horses!!!!! I get no extra credit for hitting the
> Derby or any of its prep races.
>
> BTW ... If Pletcher had 19 out of the 20 horses in
> the Derby I still wouldn\'t bet on him.
The fact that the activity increases here at certain times tells you all you
need to know. While a lot of folks probably bet cheap horses at cheap tracks,
as I\'ve said before, its like boinking a hefty lass or riding a MoPed: Ok
fine, but probably something you\'re not going to share with your friends.
The Triple Crown races and the Breeders Cup races are where it all comes
together. Big fields/Quality horses/lots of vertical/horizontal wagering
opportunities (plus the overnight doubles ie Oaks/Derby). The chance to see a
horse or horses which are historically significant. The chance to see a long
standing track record be broken (How good was Bright Thought at SA on
Saturday?).
Also, future wagers on the Derby. The initiator of this thread has had some
tantalyzing near misses and miserable bad luck with KY Derby future wagers;
for people involved in the futures trade the Derby season starts 9 or so
months before the race. A unique wager and eventually CD will wake up and have
at least one pool where all nominees are in the pool individually.
Neither God nor JB forbids you posting your selections, though the latter
would probably ask that said selections be accompanied by some TG figure based
theory.
My fellow Staten Islander Miff and I are responsible for the most NYRA bashing
on this site, but I\'ve stopped. I also haven\'t bet a NYRA race since January 1.
Waiting for quality thoroughbred racing to return to NYRA, which should be
Wood Day, Memorial Day, Belmont Day. Otherwise, so long as the Campo regime is
responsible for racing, I see month after month of cheap turf sprints.
As to drugs and drug violations, can not discuss racing without discussing
PEDs. If you are betting the races without handicapping the hop, good news, TGs
soon to be available in Braille.
Deep thought of the day: I want to die peacefully, in my sleep, like my
grandfather, not screaming in terror like the passengers in the car he was
driving.
That one never gets old...
Richie-- God switched over from Rags a long time ago, he says he wants the handicapping to be TG based too.
-------------------------------------------------------
> fjmb Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Who cares is my answer. What\'s the big deal
> with
> > these prep races? It\'s just another race in my
> > book. Everybody gets so damn uptight. I read
> > about every excuse and every stat about why a
> > horse lost. We should forget about the other 9
> > races on the card. There were a 1000 races
> run
> > yesterday, didn\'t anyone make a score or hit
> > something big? Is anybody winning? I say, Lets
> > hear some Chatter!! God forbid somebody give
> out
> > their own selection. Otherwise all we\'ll read
> is
> > more excuses about a horses\' performance,
> > restaurant recommendations, NYRA corruption,
> drug
> > voilations, etc.
> >
> > I know why I am here, to make money betting
> > horses!!!!! I get no extra credit for hitting
> the
> > Derby or any of its prep races.
> >
> > BTW ... If Pletcher had 19 out of the 20 horses
> in
> > the Derby I still wouldn\'t bet on him.
>
richiebee Wrote:
> The fact that the activity increases here at
> certain times tells you all you
> need to know. While a lot of folks probably bet
> cheap horses at cheap tracks,
> as I\'ve said before, its like boinking a hefty
> lass or riding a MoPed: Ok
> fine, but probably something you\'re not going to
> share with your friends.
>
> The Triple Crown races and the Breeders Cup races
> are where it all comes
> together. Big fields/Quality horses/lots of
> vertical/horizontal wagering
> opportunities (plus the overnight doubles ie
> Oaks/Derby). The chance to see a
> horse or horses which are historically
> significant. The chance to see a long
> standing track record be broken (How good was
> Bright Thought at SA on
> Saturday?).
>
> Also, future wagers on the Derby. The initiator of
> this thread has had some
> tantalyzing near misses and miserable bad luck
> with KY Derby future wagers;
> for people involved in the futures trade the Derby
> season starts 9 or so
> months before the race. A unique wager and
> eventually CD will wake up and have
> at least one pool where all nominees are in the
> pool individually.
>
> Neither God nor JB forbids you posting your
> selections, though the latter
> would probably ask that said selections be
> accompanied by some TG figure based
> theory.
>
> My fellow Staten Islander Miff and I are
> responsible for the most NYRA bashing
> on this site, but I\'ve stopped. I also haven\'t bet
> a NYRA race since January 1.
> Waiting for quality thoroughbred racing to return
> to NYRA, which should be
> Wood Day, Memorial Day, Belmont Day. Otherwise, so
> long as the Campo regime is
> responsible for racing, I see month after month of
> cheap turf sprints.
>
> As to drugs and drug violations, can not discuss
> racing without discussing
> PEDs. If you are betting the races without
> handicapping the hop, good news, TGs
> soon to be available in Braille.
>
> Deep thought of the day: I want to die peacefully,
> in my sleep, like my
> grandfather, not screaming in terror like the
> passengers in the car he was
> driving.
Absolutely agree that the big races are more fun to talk about, and create great interest on the board. I check in regularly to read all of the divergent and interesting comments
Yeah, its nice to tell someone you had Giacomo (ridden by the worst jockey, per TG \"experts\", ever to ride in a big race. Interesting that on a board that relishes numbers and statistics, the guy with more BC wins than any other jockey gets ridiculed on a regular basis around these parts. And for the guy that brings up his ROI, his derby ROI is pretty good).
But other than an offhand remark you had it, does it really matter?? If you dinged a 20k super on a maiden race at Tampa Bay, that aint boinking some fat chick. I hit a dime super for $1500+ on a $2.40 ticket at Penn last year. I\'ve hit other large win mutuels, vertical/horizontal bets. I\'ve shared them with plenty of people that have asked about big scores and such. A score is a score. Bragging about hammering a 3/1 shot?? Now thats like boinking a \"hefty lass\".
I love the conversation, but I wouldn\'t look down on someone making a score at Penn, Sam Houston, or any other lower level track. The money spends the same no matter where you get it. And the stories about them no less interesting, IMHO.
Lastly, awesome performance by Bright Thought....and congrats to Jorge Gutierrez for his first Graded Stakes win.
For me, the best reason to read @Fourlegsdoc\'s tweets was last August when considering DULLAHAN in last year\'s Pacific Classic after a 7th in the Belmont and 5th in the Haskell. He tweeted:
\"A week of travel to SoCal (Del Mar Racetrack), Louisville and back to Saratoga today! Phew!!! Travel is starting to get to me.\"
Del Mar? So Dr. Steve flew 3000 miles to Del Mar, eh? To put the good wood to... who? DULLAHAN, of course! All doubts I may have had about the 3-year old\'s chances in the Classic vanished. That was the play! [Slow zoom in to me as the realization of what\'s gonna happen here come\'s over my face. This boy was gonna run!] The tote board said tilt early, drifted up to 5-1 and DULLAHAN indeed ran a beauty. 5-wide far turn move to run down GAME ON DUDE.
Let us now praise social media and all good men.
JTChance
I got on Twitter specifically to follow Maggie. John, you have now created a real problem for me-- I don\'t know if in good conscience I can follow that guy. Man.
This seems like an appropriate place to bring up some Dubai World Cup discussion. Dullahan (and Little Mike) both did not appear to fire first out in Dubai. The theory will be though that they needed a race over the track. AK, who in the ROTW in Feb, Jerry mentioned may be sitting on a new top next out, would appear to have travelled well and is now bedded down in the desert. The real question is what to do with Royal Delta. Even is she were to only run her 3rd fastest lifetime fig, with the weight break (4.4lbs), that makes her a very likely winner. BUT..she clearly hated the surface last year (along with an odd ride). So fellow TG\'ers, any thoughts on RD\'s likelyhood of firing this year? Current best odds antepost are: Hunters Light (who won the two local preps) 6:1, AK 7:1, RD 5:1, DUL 14:1.
I\'m not buying into the \"needed a race over the track theory\" and think this is more about the removal of Lasix. There are not many US-bred horses that can run similar figures off Lasix, it comes from how intensely speed has been bred into pedigrees, and Lasix helps that speed stay.
Have no statistical study to prove this, but the theory would be that horses with similar speed breeding experience a larger drop-off when removing lasix than those with european or true route/turf pedigrees (like a Dynaformer for instance) would see. (hopefully we all agree that Lasix is a performance enhancer either way, I\'m saying that it is much more pronounced is speed pedigree horses).
If this theory holds true, I\'m not expecting much different out of Royal Delta this year and am scratching my head over the decision to run her back. Little Mike with the Spanish Steps, I\'m not expecting a good run off Lasix, expecting similar to what we saw on the main track last time, might reach the lead around 8f but won\'t have the closing kick needed.
Dullahan, I would aim for a better run than he showed last out, but anyone expecting him to get near his top figs I think is barking up the wrong tree. For me, the clear play of the American horses is Animal Kingdom, who figures to run more closely to his best figures off lasix than any of these others.
Neither of.them may run a jump but Tammy has been over there with them the whole time and this has always been the Plan. Its a challenge but they are giving it their best.
It\'s so blatantly obvious with this guy (@Fourlegsdoc\'s), how does he get away with what he does....Is he that far ahead of the testing??
JohnT,
You got me interested so I took a look at his Twitter. Apparently he visited Drysdale on March 6th, so perhaps it is now time to watch the Drysdale runners for move up tendencies. Never thought I would write that sentence.
As you often wrote John, your move.
To quote C&C Music factory...
Dr. Steve Allday @Fourlegsdoc 5m
Preparing to travel to Palm Meadows on Sunday. Looking over runners for Mr. P who happens to have the strongest racing stable on America!
Jimbo-- Not just running bad. Delhomme\'s return was delayed, then he went wrong in his return. Overanalyze ran fair (not loking for an argument), then they said they were running next at Sunland, now say they are skipping this entire round of preps and pointing for Oaklawn.
Meanwhile, after Fairmount pointed me in this direction, and with the help of Andy Serling, I did a little (and I do mean a little) homework.
Pletcher at CD:
2010 21 for 89
2011 6 for 60
2012 0 for 36
Kentucky changed labs in December 2010.
Do we have any info/opinion on Plesa visa vee this particular subject? Kinda makes a pretty big difference too, no?
Should I blame you or Andy or both? You have forced me to defend Pletcher because these numbers are off by a lot. According to Equibase, Pletcher had 7 wins in 41 starts at the fall 2012 Keeneland meeting, and had 4 wins in 13 starts at the spring 2012 meet at the same track. He was 0 for 36 at the two 2012 Churchill meetings. He was a combined 1 for 4 at the three Turfway meetings in 2012 and did not have a starter at KD last year. At least according to Equibase, therefore, the aggregate Pletcher stats for Kentucky in 2012 should be 12 for 94.
Should have said at CD, will correct post.
This is purely gossip, but I had heard that Pletcher\'s barn had a bit of a dust-up with the Churchill racing office for using up too many stalls and not producing enough starters. I heard one well-connected trainer in particular quip that Pletcher was using Churchill as a \"training facility\" for his second string juveniles and were racing them elsewhere. Perhaps, this led to a decline in the number of quality starters Pletcher had at CD last year.
I would be interesting in the comparison of juvenile runners at CD he started last year as compared to previous years.
Not that I want to defend Pletcher either.
Caradoc,
You are correct that he was better at Keeneland. JB\'s numbers I believe are in Louisville. His numbers at Churchill though are glaring to say the least. Defend him all you want. If you followed every starter at the Downs last year (at the spring meet I did), it is difficult to accept that he just wasn\'t shooting for that meet. His horses lacked that \"will to win in the stretch\" (see my notes on Shanghai, Violence, or even his 2012 Remsen runners) that predominate the Gulfstream meet every single year. Bridgetown was his best effort in my opinion on Derby Day from the Spring/Summer Churchill meet. His 2012 Spring/Summer Churchill meet totals, 17-0-2-1.
The total stats you cited make him a 12.76% trainer in Kentucky in 2012. This is still a glaring number compared to TAP\'s normal numbers year round any state not named Kentucky.
And looky there right before JB says Lab change happened in Kentucky in December 2010....Churchill Downs fall meet 2010, Todd Pletcher leading trainer: 40-9-6-5, 23% wins, 50% in the money, $2.8 million in earnings.
I am not saying I have the entire answer here. But if you can figure out places to competely eliminate overbet horses, I\'m really, really interested in playing those races. For me, with his far flung stable and involvement in big days when I like to consider playing multi-race, horizontal wagers, I like to figure anything out about a Pletcher entry that can give me an edge at discerning whether to use his horse(s), and to what degree, or not use it altogether. As I previously stated, this is almost impossible for me to do even with hours and hours and hours of study. One angle that seems reliable is when he enters a horse that has been racing for many races and changes hands from a much lower percentage trainer to him. That first race for Pletcher often shows marked improvement and I don\'t mean just first off the claim. These trainer change horses for him win with more reliability in my experience although there is not a lot of value in the win pool on those types but I often use them in the multi\'s.
Defend him? You must be kidding. I proudly count myself as a charter member of the anti-Pletcherites on this board, as most recently expressed here (https://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,77529,77537#msg-77537) but going back many years to my debate with Classhandicapper and Barry Irwin regarding the double standard Barry applied to Pletcher.
There are two simple points to be made here. First, if we were going to have any discussion about the performance of Pletcher runners in Kentucky then we ought to at least start with good numbers. That shouldn't be controversial. Second, we have been invited to connect a lab change mandated by the KHRC with the supposed decline in Pletcher's Kentucky win percentage. If there is a relationship between the two, then his numbers should be equivalently impacted at both Churchill and Keenelend, both under the jurisdiction of the KHRC. In fact, the numbers have not been equivalently impacted. At Keeneland, Pletcher's stats generally correspond with his overall stats – 8 for 35 in 2011, and 7 for 41 last year, leaving him just under 20% when combined.
If you want to say that there is an issue with his CD entrants, fine, but I'd still like to compare those results with his results at other tracks during the relevant periods; given where they fall in the calendar then perhaps it's a down time for his stable everywhere. And I'd sure like to know what the TG run-based performances of those CD runners were.
Caradoc,
You\'re ruining it for the conspiratorial minded. Everyone,ahem,knows TAP uses illegal stuff for which there is no test.Such being the case, it is irrelevant which venue is testing.To deflect attention,TAP only uses it at Gulf and Saratoga which coincidentally are the two only meets he points for.
Mike
You\'re right, he doesn\'t point for any of those little CD stakes. Nobody pays any attention to what happens there anyway.
Talking meets, now individual races.Check his number of starts in NY and Florida vs all other.Think that may show it.
Seriously? When he runs horses in stakes at CD-- which on top of other things means shipping-- he\'s not \"pointing\" for them? And by the way, his horses do pretty good at Aqueduct (which is to say much better than at CD).
Keep in mind I know some stuff for a fact, Allday ran his mouth with no compunction to the Jockey Club. Not a matter of deduction or interpretation.
ROTW will be Sunland Derby, up tomorrow.
Don\'t know your point but if it\'s that the testing in better/tougher in Kentucky than other main venues, you gave a scoop.
Again-- they changed labs. Before that there is reason to believe they were not testing at all.
Dr.Mary Scollay is rolling on the floor with laughter if she read that!
So then why do the Keeneland stats do not fit the theory? And don\'t we think that Pletcher also points for the little Keeneland stakes and Keeneland generally, where his stats accord with his overall stats?
Trust me on this one. Information, not just belief.
Here is an honest question for anyone. Sighthound? Can you explain whether \"elevated liver enzymes\" are normal issues for horses? I\'ve read they are but..... What about in Grade 1 quality horses? And what about the likelihood of them both being in the same barn in the same year and having this happen (2011)? And is cancer common after this elevated enzyme level? And how come I\'ve never read about elevated liver enzymes in other trainers horses--is it because TAP is more forthcoming with information than other trainers?
Just seems to me that\'s just the most coincidentally, tragic set of events in one trainer\'s barn that could ever happen. Unless of course, you go back to the case of Left Bank, Freedom\'s Daughter, and Warners.....
Thanks in advance for any responses.
___________________________________________
Uncle Mo has been scratched from Saturday\'s running of the Kentucky Derby.
An intestinal problem was discovered after last year\'s Breeders\' Cup Juvenile champion finished third at the Wood Memorial on April 9. Trainer Todd Pletcher indicated recently that Uncle Mo had been recovering from the issue, but still said he and owner Mike Repole would wait until an examination from vets on Friday morning before making a decision on the colt\'s Derby status.
\"He\'s got one specific enzyme that\'s elevated that has everyone baffled, they can\'t identify why,\" said Pletcher at a Friday morning news conference. \"Generally, without getting too scientific, when this particular enzyme is elevated there is also something in the bloodwork that would lead them to the direction toward a liver or a kidney, but this specific case it\'s one single enzyme that\'s elevated that doesn\'t really lead you anywhere else.\"
\"The biggest thing I see is depressed appetite, loss of weight and his haircoat\'s not right,\" Pletcher added.
___________________________________
Multiple Grade 1 winner Devil May Care, a starter in the 2010 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands, was euthanized May 4 after a confirmed diagnosis of lymphosarcoma, a form of cancer.
Her dire condition was confirmed by veterinarian Johanna Reimer, a specialist in internal medicine and cardiology at Rood and Riddle in Lexington.
The 4-year-old mare by Malibu Moon out of the Red Ransom mare Kelli\'s Ransom earned $724,000 at 2 and 3. Her victories included the Grade 1 Mother Goose Stakes, BetFair TVG Coaching Club American Oaks (Grade 1), Frizette Stakes (Grade 1) and the Bonnie Miss Stakes (Grade 2). Devil May Care finished 10th in last year\'s Derby.
Purchased for $110,000 by John Greathouse at the 2008 Keeneland September yearling sale, Devil May Care was trained by Todd Pletcher.
According to Greathouse\'s Glencrest Farm, which raced the filly in all nine of her starts, she will be cremated following a complete autopsy. Devil May Care was bred in Kentucky by Diamond A Racing Corporation.
Devil May Care had been a hopeful for last year\'s Breeders\' Cup Ladies\' Classic at Churchill Downs, but her diagnosis with a non-contagious form of hepatitis last October forced her to skip the race. Since then, she had been on and off antibiotics and continued to carry an elevated liver enzyme count.
Greathouse said the filly had been hospitalized in Florida over the winter, where her condition had been monitored by veterinarians. The filly, who had also been treated for an inflamed bowel, was brought back to Glencrest this spring when she showed some slight improvements.
\"When she got here, she looked good,\" said Greathouse, who added Devil May Care was on steroid medications he believed had kept the cancer at bay. Although she did put on some weight while in Kentucky the last few months, her coat began to deteriorate, and veterinarians at Rood and Riddle did more tests on the filly that ultimately detected the cancer.
\"We went through a lot to keep her alive, and we were willing to walk that road with her, but it was a battle she was never going to win,\" said an emotional Greathouse, who expressed his deep respect for the filly.
I don\'t know the answer to why Kee but not CD. But I also didn\'t know why Sightseek (name?) and others ran tops for Frankel at one SoCal track and not another, to the point where he pretty much stopped running there.
Sightseek actually ran her tops at CD (ironically enough) and at the NY tracks then went backward when Frankel shipped her to run in California so I don\'t see any relevance of her to this. Anyway, the point is that any suggestion that any supposed decline in the performance of Pletcher horses in Kentucky cannot be related to any change in labs required by the KHRC.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don\'t know the answer to why Kee but not CD. But
> I also didn\'t know why Sightseek (name?) and
> others ran tops for Frankel at one SoCal track and
> not another, to the point where he pretty much
> stopped running there.
Well, the synthetics are like turf in certain respects. I, often, look at turf figures (and synthetic figures) a little differently than dirt because of the nature of the way races can be run. In turf, it seems a lot of times the horses jog and jockey for position the first three quarters and then only race the very end.....in dirt, it seems the race is broken open before it is halfway over. Not sure I am making sense here, but I can imagine drugs having different impacts depending on the nature of the physical effort required.
For example, when I was rowing in college, our coach had us do all this weird testing for our anabolic (sp?) threshold. Basically, your body reacts very differently depending on which side of this threshold you are operating on (as i understand it, it has to do with how much oxygen your muscles are using under the particular conditions versus how much oxygen can your body deliver to the muscles). My point is.....there was a time at Keeneland where nobody put out any effort for the first chunk of the race....everybody crawled. That is quite different than how races were run at Churchill in the adjacent meets. Perhaps the anabolic threshold (if that is even an equine issue) was different in the two, and the drugs only really help those running over the threshold not below. Apologies if this comes out like chinese or greek. Maybe somebody more knowledgeable can make sense of what I am trying to say and translate.
Caradoc Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sightseek actually ran her tops at CD (ironically
> enough) and at the NY tracks then went backward
> when Frankel shipped her to run in California so I
> don\'t see any relevance of her to this. Anyway,
> the point is that any suggestion that any supposed
> decline in the performance of Pletcher horses in
> Kentucky cannot be related to any change in labs
> required by the KHRC.
Was sightseek\'s issue that she did fine on dirt but poorly on synthetic? My other post here could explain that if I am right (or at least in the right direction).
No. She never ran on synthetic.
Fairmount, the rare liver ailments of these two horses - killing one of them - is indeed suspicious. As was Life At Ten, who somehow didn\'t get drug tested. As was the episode a number of years back when Left Bank, Freedom\'s Daughter, and another horse all got deathly ill (and it ultimately killed all of them) up at Saratoga.
Sightseek actually ran her tops in NY, and regardless ran at CD before they changed labs. The point is SA was dirt and she ran much worse there than on other dirt, as did a lot of other Frankel horses around that time (including relative to the other SoCal tracks), to the point where he started fewer horses there. We could all try to come up with guesses why SA would be a different situation-- I heard it suggested at the time by a top California racing writer that it was because his barn at SA was in plain view, not at the other tracks. But the point is that SOMETHING was different.
Considering that most Pletcher runners are first or second choice, 7 for 96 is statistically significant (I\'d love to see his ROI). It may be the lab, it may not, but it would be some kind of coincidence if not. No idea why it would be different at Keeneland, but you could say the same thing about Frankel at SA.
Some time when the statute of limitations has run out I\'ll tell you about the old Kentucky lab, and why they don\'t use it any more. It\'s a classic example of why it\'s important that drug tests get published, in detail.
I\'ll try hard to make this my final post on the topic.
1. The introduction of Sightseek has nothing to do with the subject raised here, which is whether Pletcher had experienced a notable downturn in the performance of his Kentucky runners since the end of 2010. Further, there was a dark suggestion in this thread that this supposed downturn had something to do with a change in labs required by the KHRC. Anyway, you will note that Sightseek did run what was a top at Churchill in the spring of her 4yo campaign.
2. Whether Pletcher runners are first or second choice has no relevance to the performance of those horses on your figures, which I assumed was the metric we should be using, the coin of this realm. If this is to be a serious conversation, then it would surely be more meaningful to look at the run-based performance of his runners for the periods we are discussing rather than to lazily conclude anything based solely on the winning percentage of his runners for a limited period of time at one track.
3. Once again we are again not working off the same data. What is the 7 for 96 statistic you now reference? Do you mean Pletcher\'s 12 for 94 in Kentucky is 2012? If not, then what?
7 for 60 2011 at CD, 0 for 36 2012. 7 for 96 at CD since the lab change.
I don\'t know whether we\'re set up to do a study that way, I\'ll make a mild inquiry but won\'t make anybody do any programming. If the guy sent out a lot of longshots the dropoff from 21 for 89 (2010) to 7 for 96 could be considering just an aberration. But if you say the guy figures to win around 20%, that\'s a pretty big dropoff oover a pretty big sample. A pure statistics guy could tell you more.
And again, it may or may not have anything to do with the lab, or being watched, or the presence/absense of his vet (Allday), or something else, as I said.
Finally, re \"dark suggestions,\" I KNOW what Allday admitted to (read--boasted about) to the Jockey Club Safety and Integrity committee (ironic, that) when I was working with them, some of it about work he did for Pletcher. You have no idea. And it was about the time period others are discussing on this thread, the time of Left Bank and others. I\'m not guessing.
Capo Bastone empty for TAP in Spiral, must be the new lab in KY..... or maybe CB is the slow one paced garbage can he looked like going in.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 7 for 60 2011 at CD, 0 for 36 2012. 7 for 96 at CD
> since the lab change.
>
> I don\'t know whether we\'re set up to do a study
> that way, I\'ll make a mild inquiry but won\'t make
> anybody do any programming. If the guy sent out a
> lot of longshots the dropoff from 21 for 89 (2010)
> to 7 for 96 could be considering just an
> aberration. But if you say the guy figures to win
> around 20%, that\'s a pretty big dropoff oover a
> pretty big sample. A pure statistics guy could
> tell you more.
>
> And again, it may or may not have anything to do
> with the lab, or being watched, or the
> presence/absense of his vet (Allday), or something
> else, as I said.
>
> Finally, re \"dark suggestions,\" I KNOW what Allday
> admitted to (read--boasted about) to the Jockey
> Club Safety and Integrity committee (ironic, that)
> when I was working with them, some of it about
> work he did for Pletcher. You have no idea. And it
> was about the time period others are discussing on
> this thread, the time of Left Bank and others. I\'m
> not guessing.
Why don\'t you consider going on the record/give details, TGJB? From what you\'ve said, you obviously have to think that publicly airing this would be in the best interest of racing, so that\'d be in your favor. If he were to sue, if you are correct, then it\'d open a big can of worms that he wouldn\'t want to open through the depositions (in other words, you\'d get the back-up and more even if no one wanted to had it not come to this).
Silsita didn\'t seem to mind the change of scenery.
TAP\'s numbers at GP are great, but so are Maker\'s and Brown\'s. Mott and Wolfson not that far back either. Factoring in that he gets the pick of the litter (and jocks) every year, how remarkable is it?
Could be T.A.P. used the juice just on the Bourbon Oaks Winner in the prior race and not on Capo Bastone so as to throw the Lab guys off?
Eight Belles Wrote:
> Why don\'t you consider going on the record/give
> details, TGJB? From what you\'ve said, you
> obviously have to think that publicly airing this
> would be in the best interest of racing, so that\'d
> be in your favor. If he were to sue, if you are
> correct...
In most any scenario, TGJB would be opening himself up
to getting murdered on legal fees. I\'ll guess that he
VERY BADLY wants to spill the beans on this stuff, but
has been advised against it by his wise legal counsel.
high roller Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Could be T.A.P. used the juice just on the Bourbon
> Oaks Winner in the prior race and not on Capo
> Bastone so as to throw the Lab guys off?
What is it these trainers give a horse like Capo
Bastone, that makes them stumble at the start and
lose all chance? ;)
Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Eight Belles Wrote:
>
> > Why don\'t you consider going on the record/give
> > details, TGJB? From what you\'ve said, you
> > obviously have to think that publicly airing
> this
> > would be in the best interest of racing, so
> that\'d
> > be in your favor. If he were to sue, if you
> are
> > correct...
>
> In most any scenario, TGJB would be opening
> himself up
> to getting murdered on legal fees. I\'ll guess that
> he
> VERY BADLY wants to spill the beans on this stuff,
> but
> has been advised against it by his wise legal
> counsel.
He\'d be protected if the truth is on his side. As for the costs to get to the truth, I suspect that the vet would be advised by his wise legal counsel that deposing the people in that room wouldn\'t at all be what they would want to see happen.
But if we\'re still hesitant to go that route, then how about helping someone in the press to get the info?
liver disease in horses, which is what both devil may care and uncle mo suffered from, even though it wasn\'t ever called that officially at the time (at least as far as i am aware), is caused by one of 5 things: consumption of a toxic substance, infection, non-infectious inflammation, a metabolic disorder, an obstruction, or idiopathic presentation (which means, no one has clue). in most cases the cause is never identified.
horses in the same barn would be likely to have the same exposure to various toxins and infectious diseases, so it wouldn\'t be that unlikely for one barn or even track to be hit hard--but if there had been a widespread problem in the TAP barn or at any of the tracks he stabled his horses, more than two horses would have gone down.
find a common denominator between devil may care and uncle mo, or conclude it was an unfortunate coincidence...FWIW my thought at the time was that it was from bad (i.e. tainted) blood or plasma transfusions, which would explain why it was limited to two horses--you can only transfuse with compatible blood, and horses have over 30 blood groups and 8 blood systems...but then again, my years with pro-cycling have made me see the tell tale signs of blood doping everywhere...was there an older horse in the TAP barn who hadn\'t raced in awhile that had heptitis at that time by chance? (the blood for a blood packing transfusions would ideally need to come from a horse that wasn\'t racing at the time, so the the blood would be oxygen rich--though they could just do what lance armstrong did and pull blood from mo and devil may care in the off season and store it till race day, but blood doesn\'t store well (which is why lance only raced once year for all practical purposes)... it can be frozen but that\'s a tricky and iffy process...just ask jesus manzano...)
since i\'ll never know the cause, the thing that bothered me the most about the whole affair was that liver enzyme tests only will indicate a problem once 60-70% of liver function has been lost. i took a lot of criticism elsewhere for upbraiding steve haskin for his cheerleading the return of uncle mo in the fall after mo\'s liver disease was announced--running that poor horse again was animal abuse--especially since i don\'t recall that they ran him lasix free, which means that his already impaired liver was stressed even more by forced dehydration.
if your curious here\'s the merck manual\'s entry on equine liver disease: http://www.merckmanuals.com/pethealth/horse_disorders_and_diseases/digestive_disorders_of_horses/disorders_of_the_liver_in_horses.html#v3218288
As far as the ROI, the seven winners paid $87.80 in total (he had a couple nice ones in there). There are different ways of computing ROI but for the base $2 wager for 96 horses it\'s bet $192, return of $87.80.
I didn\'t find any other patterns except that Pletcher at CD was 2 for 3 at 4 1/2 furlongs. So, at all other distances he was 5 for 93; $186 bet, a return of $64.60.
You write that Pletcher\'s dropoff – such as it was - \"may or may not have anything to do with the lab . . .\" It was your dark suggestion in this thread that the dropoff in Kentucky had something to do with the lab change. After initially reciting his decline in performance in Kentucky since 2010 (since corrected to a decline at just CD) you wrote: "Kentucky changed labs in December 2010." That was not an invitation for us to conclude that the supposed decline had something to do with the lab change?
Finally, you're right. I have no idea what Allday admitted when he was before the Jockey Club Safety and Integrity Committee. And since there is apparently no public record of that testimony apparently a lot of other people will never know either. What I do know and what you should know also is that whatever he said has nothing to do with this discussion, unless Allday specifically testified about treating Pletcher horses who ran in the state of Kentucky since the end of 2010, including some explanation as to why results would differ at CD, but not at Keeneland. Unless he did, any reference to his testimony is a red herring.
Speaking of the devil, his Verranzano and Revolutionary just worked lights out at Palm Meadows according to one NY trainer there.
Verranzano still looking physically imposing.
Kekomi,
Have been told that the practice of stacking is a possible culprit in liver disease.The thought being that the liver become over worked by having to process an inordinate amount of drugs.Stacking widely used in the game,still legal.
If Sight is out there, would ask her opinion.
Mike
Here you go, I know a guy whose business is removing the manure/hay from racetracks. He then sells it to mushroom farmers. The Mushroom farmers now dont want the manure from racetracks anymore because of \"all the steroids in the manure\". The manure produces deformed and very low quality mushrooms, go figure.
Kekomi,
Thanks for this insight. I\'m not a chemistry/medical expert so I apologize for this question but does this blood transfusion avoid a testing problem as opposed to the use of EPO for which they can detect levels? Or do they test red blood cell levels also? If I understand Miff correctly (and I may not), this blood transfusion process (Stacking?) to increase red blood cell counts is not necessarily illegal?
And does this increased red blood cell amount account for a horse\'s ability to often continue to be game, continue to fight and \"refuse to be passed\" visual observation horseplayers see from time to time? I had a low percentage Fairmount trainer about 2 minutes to post tell me one time, \"hey my horse won\'t win, his blood cell count is way down.\" The horse was 4-5 on the board and ran up the track. So how often do they run blood tests on these animals if a cheap Fairmount nag\'s trainer knows these levels.
It seems to me this is the information, red blood cell count, is as meaningful a number as TG fig. And obviously this is the info trainers/barn people have that gives them an advantage over the public as to how their horse is coming into the race.
If this \"stacking\" isn\'t illegal, I think many trainers would still never consider allowing this to happen because it is dangerous I presume (Ie, complications). Very interesting stuff. Again, thanks.
Fair,
Blood doping not stacking,apologies for not explaining. Stacking is the process whereby separate doses of two different legal medications are given to a horses withing the allowed time.Example, two anti inflammatory drugs are administered to a horse instead of one,stacking.
If you had a headache you would take one Tylenol and one Advil, the thought being drugs used in combination are more effective in relieving your headache.Lotta yakking/innuendo on boards about move up guys, blah blah but most do not know the incredible arsenal of legal stuff that is being used in conjunction with super jugs, shock wave theraphy and other legal tools.
Mike
Eight--
1-- First of all, I\'ve been trying to get these Mother F_____s to sue me for years. Subpoena power is a wonderful thing, I\'m careful not to characterize without having the goods, and Allday admitted what he did in front of half the Fortune 500. They would make great witnesses.
2-- I have gone on the record to some degree here, before and now, and in an Op-Ed that ran in TDN, but there are some issues of being told certain things in confidence. What Allday said to the JC is in a gray area-- the deal was anything said there could not be used against you-- and I feel comfortable going about as far as I have publicly. I have gone on record to a greater degree with anyone I thought could help-- with the JC, with Joe Drape (and no, I was not his source, I talked to him after the drug articles), with Tom Udall\'s people, with Charlie Hayward, Ron Charles, Rick Arthur etc.
3-- Miff, you\'re not going to like this, re NYRA. Recently-- THIS WINTER-- someone found a syringe outside the barn of a prominent NY trainer and turned it in for testing. It was positive for a derivative of the drug which whose use in horses Allday pioneered (ahem) over 20 years ago, and it does raise red blood cell counts, that\'s the point. I was able to find out how they are beating testing-- it involves the timing of injections, and I verified with Rick Arthur that when administered that way you can\'t catch it except with out of competition testing. By the way, the vet that services the guy in question also works for two other trainers having huge winters.
Hey, you know what? At the BC this year they went around confiscating syringes, and I think did some out of competition testing. You know, the BC where certain trainers horses didn\'t run well.
JB,
Still 95% smoke, finding a syringe at a racetrack,are you kidding me, how startling.The guy who is no longer licensed in NY will come on this board and enlighten you as to how to win at 25% without using any class 1 or 2 drugs.Incidentally, no less the 3 NY move up guys, according to you, spend substantial money out of their own pocket to ensure no one \"plants\" a syringe.I\'d like to bet that if they find all the purely \"illegal\" trainers, youd be off by a substantial margin.
The percentage of totally illegal stuff being used to cheat pales in comparison to the abusive use of legal stuff,which is now under review at most major jurisdictions.
Mike
I\'m getting damn close to a line here-- I don\'t have a problem talking about what Allday admitted to, but I\'m trying not to accuse his clients, since they didn\'t walk in there and admit cheating, he did. But what Allday said he did back then has exactly the same relevance that prior bad acts have in court. He worked for Pletcher then, he works for him now, he has admitted to cheating for his clients in the past.
But I feel okay about saying who Allday\'s clients were, and if this game was run properly we would know who the vet was for every horse, as we do its trainer. The ones I know, chronologically:
Alan Paulson (supposedly Allday did not work with Cigar).
Pat Byrne for a brief period (guess which).
Stronach (Orsino, Red Bullet, etc.).
The Dutrows. Who intoduce him to
Frankel in 2001.
Pletcher (starting around the same time).
Re the Kentucky lab-- I have it on ironclad authority that the reason they changed was they loaded some samples to test the lab, and got back no positives. Great game. Does that mean that\'s why Pletcher hasn\'t done as well at CD since they changed? Not neccesarily, but like I said, hell of a coincidence.
My filly was 100% healthy - then on clembuterol for weeks - then elevated liver enzymes that never came down. Manufacturer states clem should not be used long-term. My trainer-vet had no response when I questioned them on it.
Miff-- you need to read that again. The syringe tested positive for EPO. And it wasn\'t \"planted\"-- if it had been it would have been inside the barn. Where it was nobody could be charged.
HR-- that\'s one legal drug that for sure is being abused. There are versions out there much stronger than the usual (legal) one, too.
Jerry - One thing you can never explain - the racetrack is one hell-hole of jealously - one disgruntled employee could sink any of these juice trainer\'s. It would have to be a conspiracy where no one ever rat\'s. These day\'s there\'s no shortage of do-gooder\'s and whistle-blower\'s.
Miff is correct - the big stable\'s have the financial muscle to use everything and go to the edge of the cliff. It\'s like Wal-Mart vs. Mom & Pop.
Plus TAP an astute horseman - with the best stock - the best help - the wealthiest owner\'s.
The guy you should be talking about is JAMIE NESS!
\"The syringe tested positive for EPO\"
JB,
If Dr. Maylin finds a positive for EPO in a NY runner it will be on page one of every trade paper in the world.New Gaming Commission in NY,old NYSRWB desperate to find a \"big story\" as they seek much more money/power in administering NY racing.They are on a witch hunt and doing things bordering illegal which has some NY trainers/owners seeking legal advice.
Mike
Miff-- you need to read slowly, a few times, and make sure you understand what I said.
There was no positive for EPO. They are able to beat the test, as I said. The SYRINGE tested positive. It could not legally be attached to any individual or horse. What should they have put on page one?
Anybody have any ideas who this guy is working for now besides TAP? This is pretty unreal that we have to factor in vets into the handicapping process!!
1.Assuming what you say is fact, Dr.Maylin is knee deep in the process of testing, notwithstanding no horses was identified.
2.EPO testing is old in NY.As told to me, those test can be ambiguous or overlapping.Since you state you know how \"they\" beat the test, shoot me an email and I\'ll get it to Dr\'s Maylin and Scollay, it may be old news to them.
Lets see what the most knowledgeable have to say about it.
Read it again.
Found these quotes from Repole posted on May 1st, 2011 regarding the status of Uncle Mo. \"Repole said he's been assured by the colt's veterinarian that Uncle Mo "is the most sound horse that Todd Pletcher has in the barn." "And Todd has about 140 horses. So how can I not feel confident with that statement?" he said.
What a load of garbage from someone who is supposed to have the horses\' best interest at heart!
http://lubbockonline.com/sports/2011-05-01/137th-kentucky-derby-anybodys-race#.UU9BZDecHTo
Assume you mean tested by Maylin,will find out.
I take those \"sound\" comments at the time to be \"protective of stud value\" comments. That his ailment that forced his Derby Scratch had absolutely nothing to do with fragility, his bones, etc.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'m getting damn close to a line here-- I don\'t
> have a problem talking about what Allday admitted
> to, but I\'m trying not to accuse his clients,
> since they didn\'t walk in there and admit
> cheating, he did. But what Allday said he did back
> then has exactly the same relevance that prior bad
> acts have in court. He worked for Pletcher then,
> he works for him now, he has admitted to cheating
> for his clients in the past.
>
> But I feel okay about saying who Allday\'s clients
> were, and if this game was run properly we would
> know who the vet was for every horse, as we do its
> trainer. The ones I know, chronologically:
>
> Alan Paulson (supposedly Allday did not work with
> Cigar).
>
> Pat Byrne for a brief period (guess which).
>
> Stronach (Orsino, Red Bullet, etc.).
>
> The Dutrows. Who intoduce him to
>
> Frankel in 2001.
>
> Pletcher (starting around the same time).
>
> Re the Kentucky lab-- I have it on ironclad
> authority that the reason they changed was they
> loaded some samples to test the lab, and got back
> no positives. Great game. Does that mean that\'s
> why Pletcher hasn\'t done as well at CD since they
> changed? Not neccesarily, but like I said, hell of
> a coincidence.
Any client list of the good Dr\'s that leaves out Dale Romans and Neil Drysdale is without a doubt incomplete
Mr Brown, trainer extraordinaire was of course the good Dr\'s assistant for several years.
That was news to me, just did an Allday/Chad Brown search and you are absolutely right.
Chad Brown\'s first job was with Shug, guess that\'s where he learned to \"move them up\"
Miff,
I am nor sure about Chad strting with \"Shug\", but he worked for Bobby Frankel for a long time, hence the \"Allday\" connection, if there is one.
Other way around. Fourth paragraph.
http://www.drf.com/blogs/browns-beauties
sorry for not responding to you sooner--i only get to get on the internet pretty late at night most days, so the board tends to move faster than my ability to keep up with it. i apologize if any of the below is too basic:
synthetic epo and transfusing are both forms of blood packing/blood doping--they have the same goal, to increase the percentage of red blood cells circulating in the blood (the hematocrit level)--the more red blood cells you have, the more oxygen available and the better the aerobic capacity.
there is a test for synthetic (recombinant) epo (testing for natural epo is pointless since we all produce it, humans and horses). testing for blood packing via transfusion is harder--esp. if you pack with your own blood. there\'s an antigin test to determine if someone else\'s blood is present in your blood, a plasticizer test (that picks up the residual plastic in your blood from from the IV bag), and a reticulocyte test (which measures the ratio of new blood cells to old blood cells present in your blood). but there is no direct test for autologous (your own blood) transfusions.
in human sports, all forms of blood packing are illegal, i\'m not sure in horse racing, but it wouldn\'t make sense to prohibit epo for performance enhancement, if you don\'t prohibit all forms of blood packing, since the end result is the same.
a low red blood cell count would definitely have a negative impact on performance, and absent illness, the most likely cause is cessation of epo, after prolonged epo use (basically after a while on epo, your body stops making it on its own).
i used to be skeptical of epo having any effect on horses to be honest, because they are natural bloodpackers, like dogs)--the more horses exert themselves, the more epo their bodies make. with us, we only make epo when we are at rest; physical exertion uses up our epo. but as long as the hematocrit level is less than 60%, you get the benefit, without the viscosity problems (i.e.sludge blood). i have a feeling the most significant benefits are felt by the least talented horses, just like it is with humans. a naturally superior horse will only see marginal gains, but an inferior horse will see substantial gains.
one of the hallmarks of transfusing is sudden fevers for no reason--blood has to be handled just right, even if its your own, or it causes problems. there would be whole cycling teams exiting races en masse due to a sudden illness that affected the whole team at the same time, usually blamed on food poisoning (to which all of the other teams were immune) (teammates usually transfuse together on the same day--their blood bags are all handled the same way, so if one bag got a little too warm in transit, they all did...)
the crazy thing is that lasix negates the benefits of bloodpacking, because it cause dehydration, and dehydration increases blood viscosity, and oxygen delivery decreases as blood viscosity increases. so it must be a pretty sophisticated combination of lasix, bloodpacking, and and blood thinner administration.
I just watched National Geographic\'s \"Cycling High: Doping to Win\". In the program they stated that the US Postal Service began injecting EPO directly into their veins. By doing this they could inject at night and by morning they could pass EPO testing.