Train him up to the Derby? I think the extended layoffs of Barbaro, Big Brown, MTB, and Animal Kingdom have finally dispelled the notion of needing a race close to the Derby.
I hate to see him race on dirt again due to the possibility of getting engaged in a taxing speed duel and throwing a large number up again so close to the Derby. If he must race again (I know this will be unorthodox), I hope they will consider a synthetic race where it isn\'t nearly as likely he will throw a huge, taxing figure or get pushed thru some uber-fast early fractions that could increase injury probability. It won\'t matter if he wins the race or not for Derby points.
While we have seen 3yr olds run negative numbers like his in the past, most of those have been from sprinters or mid-distance horses who didn\'t have the stamina or heartiness to be able to recover from those figures or duplicate them at longer distances. His female family suggests (to me anyway) the Classics will not be a problem for him.
Unless some other major contender emerges in the next month, he seems as good a triple crown chance as we have had in awhile, at least when looking things over at this time of year. All this said, they obviously have to keep him in one piece, and you never know what can happen.
I\'d run him in the Wood. He\'s big and really fast. Distance is the issue, and I think the Wood in a month with another month to the Derby is a good way to build stamina.
Yeah it\'s a bit of a quandry eh? Some quick math has me thinking he regressed to around a 1, which means he\'s more or less sitting on an 0/2/X pattern. So...do you try and get the X out of the way before the big one? But even then, no guarantees he can instantly bounce back to his big one, off an X, for the derby.
Of course healthy 3yo\'s don\'t have to 0/2/X. They can immediately get back to their top (or better...). So he also might just rebound. in which case you would want THAT to be his derby number.
TAP sounds for all the world like they are racing him once more (probably Wood). TAP uses the sheets so you\'d think he\'d want to try and \"manufacture\" the best pattern possible. Which in Verrazano\'s case is probably something around 0. Basically something about that is just maybe a 1pt fwd move from what he ran yesterday, to put him right on top of a huge one for the first Saturday in May.
Worst case scenario I suppose is he wins the Wood by 20. Hello Bellamy Road.
If Verranzano trains up to the derby, that\'s a negative.TAP is only going that route if Verranzano shows he\'s a bit tired.Beyer has him at a TG 0 yesterday but first time 2 turns,slight bobble at the break, and not the slickest negotiation of that first turn does not say regression imo.
Before he\'s crowned,he has to deal with at least 2, maybe 3 others that will race in the last major preps.Think he deserves top spot as of today but far to go.
Mike
Mike - I agree on him training up to it. I do think only way that happens is if something is amiss, or at least not where it should be in Pletcher\'s view.
One interesting consequence of the new pts system is that if you do win one of the 50 pt\'ers and you have your spot booked, you really could take a softest as possible approach to the last prep if you wanted. Even some kind of specially written conditions stake (Timely Writer anyone?). People would lose their minds and bad mouth the horse/connections for being afraid and avoiding the big boys, but who is to say that might not be the most astute way to have your horse ready to fire his best (ie a top) race on derby day.
The Illinois Derby may have outsmarted themselves by moving two weeks later. If they\'d stayed put on Wood/SA weekend, think they could easily have attracted one of Orb, Verrazano, or Vyjack.
Keep him away from Kentucky testing (Gemologist, other Pletcher disappointments)
TreadHead Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Unless some other major contender emerges in the
> next month, he seems as good a triple crown chance
> as we have had in awhile, at least when looking
> things over at this time of year. All this said,
> they obviously have to keep him in one piece, and
> you never know what can happen.
Triple Crown?
a) No 2YO foundation
b) Only four lifetime starts going into the Derby
c) Goes out for a trainer who has burned major money in triple crown races and
preps
d) Someone here or elsewhere asked about More Than Ready as a dirt/distance
sire. According to TG stallion stats, MTR has had 99 stakes winners; 46 of
these 99 SWs were on dirt; 50 of these SWs won at distances of 1 mile or less
Given the lack of 2YO foundation and the connections, I\'m setting the over
under on the number of Triple Crown races Verrazano wins at 1.5. And I am
betting \"under\".
Richie,
Considering the trainer\'s checkered history regarding getting talented horses to the Triple Crown (Eskendereya, Uncle Mo, Violence, etc.), never mind their performance once in, I\'m setting the over under on the number of Triple Crown races Verrazano starts at 0.5. I\'m betting \"under\".
Fair points RB, but I\'m definitely not sold on \"foundation\" concepts given the last decade. Big Brown, with a far more brittle pedigree, made a TC run on only 3 starts and AK was a head and tough trip away from making a similar attempt on 4 starts.
You do this colt a tremendous disservice by not factoring in his female family into any of the discussion. That said, you and I must be looking at different TG sire profiles, because what I see is a horse that has his highest win % on dirt and avg TG figs, win%, and stakes wins that are virtually identical at over or under a mile. That doesn\'t provide any talking point in my book.
Also missing from the discussion is that, although his male side pedigree does contain a few questions, so does every other major contender so far this year, and in most cases, those pedigrees also contain questions on the female side, where stamina influences can be just as large, if not larger. Unless someone starts throwing 0s with an 8f+ pedigree on both sides, I\'m not worried about any other contenders being better than him at the classic distances, I\'m more worried about the horse staying in one piece thru the spring campaign.
I find it hard to get excited about a horse whose connections have a Kentucky Derby record comparable to my own. I understand that, as a stand alone statistic, pointing out TAP\'s 31-1-1-1 record has limitations, but I think if you rounded those numbers out with the quality of horse flesh with which he had been given, plus the attrition of many stellar prospects before even reaching the CD starting gate, some skepticism about his latest can\'t miss is warranted.
Tread,
I wouldn\'t hold the pedigree against Ver either. Any colt with that kind of stride and Giant\'s Causeway on bottom is eligible to win the Ky Derby in this age of milers. Some erroneously held Dixie Union against UR last year, but if you took one look at the horse and factored in the long-winded genes below, you figured distance would not be an issue. I\'ll be more concerned with Ver\'s next figure and final 1/8. He probably backed up a few points going from a mile to a two-turn 1 1/16 with a 12.7 final 1/8. If he can\'t run any faster going 9f, and puts up something like a 13 final 1/8, I\'ll make his chances of getting the mile and a quarter smaller than most handicappers will (won\'t be concerned, obviously, if he flies early, slows down late, and puts up a Big Brown type figure).
One thing to watch with TAP 3 yr old prospects is ANY deviation from a planned work or race.Delhomme,for example, was never supposed to make his initial start in March, have to watch him, working bullets at PM.TAP barn closely guards \"issues\" with any of their top runners.
All other TAP derby contenders are on schedule,none looking physically better than Shanghai Bobby, who just about everyone thinks is distance challenged.Think guys forgetting TAP has so many, a few bound to go bad. His owners want to win the Derby and there is no way to do that without training thru some issues and pressing down on them for bottom, some wont handle that.
Also out of Florida, a rumor/story that Itsmyluckyday came out of his last \"tired\" and has possibly missed a start.Connections saying that\'s BS and planned a break off heavy 2 yr old campaign.If this one gets to the gate in May,very dangerous.
Mike
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> TreadHead Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
>
> > Unless some other major contender emerges in
> the
> > next month, he seems as good a triple crown
> chance
> > as we have had in awhile, at least when looking
> > things over at this time of year. All this
> said,
> > they obviously have to keep him in one piece,
> and
> > you never know what can happen.
>
>
> Triple Crown?
>
> a) No 2YO foundation
> b) Only four lifetime starts going into the Derby
> c) Goes out for a trainer who has burned major
> money in triple crown races and
> preps
> d) Someone here or elsewhere asked about More Than
> Ready as a dirt/distance
> sire. According to TG stallion stats, MTR has had
> 99 stakes winners; 46 of
> these 99 SWs were on dirt; 50 of these SWs won at
> distances of 1 mile or less
>
> Given the lack of 2YO foundation and the
> connections, I\'m setting the over
> under on the number of Triple Crown races
> Verrazano wins at 1.5. And I am
> betting \"under\".
Ritchie how many of those 46 dirt Stakes race wins were over a Mile. That is the key #. Also as I try and get a feel for this Sire \"More Than Ready\" I am starting to think Mr Prospector. And not in the Lifetime Achievement category but a similar profile. Raced as a Sprinter, was an effective Sire of both Dirt and Turf horses even though he never raced on Turf. Prospector was not a good Derby Sire until I guess FuPeg came along.
That 1.5 Triple Crown wins you set I actually think is a good # for how many of these races he runs in, NOT actually wins. I would lean over there but its just a lean at this point. The Real Trainers of this game (Wittingham, Plain Ben, Woody, etc) have got to be rolling in their repsective graves at the NOTHING BUT SPEED training on display by both Pletcher and Baffert. Rating side-by-side off a half in 45 or 46 is not teaching a horse to rate.
I have no doubt the horse was tired after two monster efforts, and Plesa announced the day after the race that IMLD wouldn\'t run again until the Fla Derby (as Pletcher did with SB). Those two things are undoubtedly connected and exactly the right move considering IMLD doesn\'t need development from here-- just points. Nine weeks to the prep and five to the Derby is a dream scenario for both horses.
Not a bad plan JB, but both are threading the needle to get to the derby,i.e. finish at least 1,2,3 in their last try.Doesn\'t leave any room for a bad trip or any other misfortune, new point system creating new strategy for trainers.IMLD will have to show he\'s not over the top already,imo His last two featured monstrous internals as well as strong speed and performance figs.
Shanghai Bobby, strictly a TAP call based on this horses physicality.While he\'s grown up from 2, he is not in the same area code physically as say Verranzano(not many are) and a few others. Think that\'s why Verr race will race one more time before derby.
Back at Ozone Park, Vyjack galloping like a wild horse.
Threading the needle as far as getting in, but this raises the question that comes up sometimes about bringing pitchers back on short rest in game 6 of a playoff series. Which is, are you trying to get to game seven, or give yourself the best chance to win the whole thing? If you use the guy in game 6 he probably won\'t be as good as in game seven, so your overall chance of winning the series goes down.
In this case the approach of coming in fresh gives the best chance of running well in the Derby (and especially after that), while decreasing the chance of running IN the Derby. The good news is that unlike with the World Series five minutes after they cross the wire people start talking about the Preakness, and then there\'s the Travers, and the BC...
Very hard for me to root for the guy who owns Vyjack for personal reasons.
Speaking of verazaano physical, funny story
When verazaano walked into the paddock on Saturday, my 8 yr old daughter said, \"daddy, why doesn\'t our horse look like that horse.\"
I said \"because daddy works for a living sweethart\"
Then after the race she says \"I told you that horse looked better than our horse.\"
By the way, Tampa treats owners as well as any place I have ever been. What a wonderful experience down there.
Great weekend of racing.
You should have introduced her to Allday, he could answer her question.
JB,
Great pitcher Verlander may be a perfect example, got rocked by the puny hitting Giants and lost like 7 of 11 after throwing 130 pitches in prior start.Guy was worn out.
Re Vyjack,Rudy proving to be stand up guy so I\'ll root to the extent of how I gamble.The Clueless Clowns went after Rudy, a la Tricky, with a barrage of surprise barn visits over a 30 day period with 24 hr scrutiny, got nuthin!
Little known that Rudy\'s brother John(Juan) was Trickys numero uno assistant for years(now with Rudy) and Rudy worked close with Bobby Frankel for a few years.Same vets/farriers/et al for Rudy who shows up early every cold morning and leaves late in the evening.
Verranzano just announced for the Wood and with a few other nice ones pointing there it may be the defining derby prep.
Mike
Since you play NY daily I\'m sure you\'ve already seen them, but maybe I\'ll post a few of Rudy\'s recent move-ups. I\'m more concerned about when the vet gets there and leaves than I am when he does, regardless of what NYRA found. And the least surprising thing would be connections to Dutrow and Frankel-- both Allday clients.
Keep in mind that my comments about Allday are not simply based on looking at sheets. He admitted a whole load of stuff himself, in detail, to a room full of Jockey Club members. Actually, admitted is the wrong word-- he was proud of it. The deal was whatever you said there could not be used against you, and it was his chance to crow.
Funny,since they pushed back on time frames for legal stuff,esp Clen b, the same guys are winning, some a higher strike rate.
NY racing sad, a new politically appointed board member told a clocker friend that he will move to ban NYRA clockers from betting. With all the contentious matters facing the game, barring clockers from gambling, Brilliant!!
Jb, this was a great one.
I am laughing out loud.
That horse had more dapples on Saturday than I have fat cells.
He needed weight against that field like I needed another piece of pecan pie in the owners room.
What a game though. Awesome experience down there.
By the way, our jockey in the paper said he can\'t wait to race against Verazzano again with a different post. Let me be clear that he stands alone in that view.
We are certainly going to go forward and try to make the derby but it will be in a race where we don\'t have that freak job laying all over us for 7 furlongs while getting 4 lbs.
Give me 3-1, I\'ll bet he won\'t be in the gate for the Derby.
....what a sport!
I make it about even money. If they trained him up to it much better chance to make it, but they\'re in a box, can\'t. Wood is a GI (which he needs to be a stallion) and they would be putting all their eggs in one basket, jumping to 1 1/4.
Wood may be some kind of betting race. Coming up as tough as the La. Derby is light.
Was talking the \"Mush\" factor.
Staten Island expression?
JB,
Shocked you\'ve never come across that term.Mush was a character in A Bronx Tale,(I think).Jimbo, the uber-Mush, an expert on the subject!
Mush-ing is like jinxing, so by saying you would give Cov 3-1 against his horse making it to the derby, you were \"mush-ing\" him.
Mike
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> We are certainly going to go forward and try to
> make the derby but it will be in a race where we
> don\'t have that freak job laying all over us for 7
> furlongs while getting 4 lbs.
Jim:
Or you could stay off the Derby trail altogether. Look at the resume of Smarten,
who was on the board for 15 of 17 starts as a 3YO (1979), winning six graded
stakes along the way, all while Woody Stephens did his best to keep his very
talented colt away from champion Spectacular Bid.
Not that there are any Spectacular Bids in this years 3YO crop, but there is
plenty of gelt available off the Triple Crown gauntlet.
Smarten lived to the ripe old age of 27, and sired the dam of top stallion Smart
Strike.
Coolmore didn\'t buy into him to be Smarten.
Meh, Coolmore, good for Covel, good for the people who root for horses to be
retired after their 3YO season (if not before) for stud duty.
Hey richie, what\'s up buddy?
I know where you are coming from and you have been very consistent over the years advocating for horses that are on the fringe bypassing the derby trail but there are two issues with that.
1. What if mine that bird, giacomo, etc had done that, many have been on the fringe and made noise in the big race
2. Winning those other stakes would be great but having one in the derby is a bucket list thing so if we can earn our way in, we are going for it.
Should be a fun 60 days coming up for everyone.
Jerry thought you were taking about verazanno I think.
Classic - http://www.metacafe.com/watch/an-bjWcJnt2thbbm4/a_bronx_tale_1993_horse_racing/
Correct, meant Verrazano, and I think I\'ve seen at least three different spellings of his name on this string already.
The good news about that bucket list thing is once you\'ve done it HOPEFULLY it\'s off the list. But I\'m not buying it.
James:
Good point about Giacomo and MTB, the two biggest head scratchers (for me) in
nearly 40 years of following the big race.
You are a bit young to be talking about a \"bucket list\", but best of luck, and see
if you can do something about those wide post position draws.
Well. As Morgan Freeman said in shawshank \"get busy living or get busy dying\"
These post draws with this horse have been brutal. 3 awful ones in a row. We\'ve had to send last few times which is tough, especially against that monster on Sat (I won\'t try to spell his name anymore)
Think he\'ll go further if he doesn\'t have to do all the dirty work upfront.
Hopefully we get to find out.
Check out the posts VG drew in the TC races some time.
\"As Morgan Freeman said in shawshank \'get busy living or get busy dying\'\"
I am very disappointed in you, Jim. Robbins said it first. Freeman merely repeated it near the end. Robbins deserves the credit.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Correct, meant Verrazano, and I think I\'ve seen at
> least three different spellings of his name on
> this string already.
>
Lets set the record straight.
The Italian explorer for whom the bridge is named spelled his name V-E-R-R-A-Z-Z
A-N-O. (Two Rs and two Zs).
Thus, both the bridge and the colt who was named after said bridge are,
technically, misspellings.
The VN Bridge was opened in 1963 or 1964. The population of Staten Island at that
time was about 75K. Staten Island now has at least 500K. In \'64 A trip across the
VN would set you back $.50 going in each direction. A recent increase brought the
toll up to $15, collected in one direction; thankfully as a Staten Islander with
an EZ pass my toll is deeply discounted to $6 per round trip.
The main impact of the VN is that half of Brooklyn was able to move to Staten
Island, next stop NJ.
Due to the large number of Italian Americans who migrated to SI after the VN
opened, it is affectionately called \"The Guinea Gangplank\". Wonder what the
Jockey Club would have said about that name.
TGJB,
what\'s motivating you to think he\'s 50-50 to make the gate ?
Flighted
Just had an extended discussion with Bill Finley on that subject, he\'s doing a piece that should run either on ESPN.com or in TDN (or both) next couple of days. I\'ll go into it further as we head towards the Wood and Derby (if he makes it that far).
But you really don\'t need me, you\'ve been using TG a while. Make a list of the 3yos that ran negative figures in March and April, see what patterns emerge.
i\'m moved not merely by this horse\'s numbers but by how he\'s attained them. call it reverse-mush , call it what you like. this beast cruises 3w / 3.5w-4w
derby day and wins by 3.5 to 4.5 lengths. I\'ll take 125 to 1 on the trip and lengths. I\'ll settle for the \"even money\" thing though.
I thought the same way until the Esky year. Could a horse have done it easier beating a very serviceable Jackson Bend by 10 lengths, TWICE?! It wasn\'t that he worked hard for it - just too fast too soon.
God, to see what he would have done to that derby field!
With all respect, everything I\'m reading on this post gives the impression that you felt you really didn\'t have a chance to beat V in the race. That\'s what I thought also; putting a saver on you for the win and a strong exacta with you underneath. When you cleared V for the lead, I was hoping you\'d stay a little wide and keep V inside of you instead of outside where he could exert pressure. In other words, run to finish 2nd and pick up some extra points. Was any thought given to that race strategy? I\'m one of your fans back to Screenplay days ( was he the $15 -$20K closer?), anyway hope you make the Derby and thanks for all your posts.
There are alot of variables that go into why we chose a given race. In this case it had to do with 2 things, first, we didn\'t want to ship for this race because we will likely wind up shipping for the next race. We thoght alot about shipping to the Gotham where I would have liked our chances alot more but sometimes you win a battle and lose a war. In this case, I think we lost a battle but are still pretty well positioned in the war if the war is defined as making the derby.
The other variable we like to isolate when we can is track surface. I personally feel as if this is one of the most underrated issues in handicapping. Different horses are built to run better on certain tracks than others and we knew he liked Tampa.
He was training great as I posted before the race and indeed he ran a nice number in the race on the thorograph. I said before hand Verazzano was 15 lengths better than the field on his best but I share JBs view that he is highly unlikely to make the derby for alot of reasons.
Thanks for the message. Good to see the board heating up as usual this time of year.
Oh man. I cheated Tim Robbins there. Apologies. Great quote either way!
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> By the way, our jockey in the paper said he can\'t
> wait to race against Verazzano again with a
> different post. Let me be clear that he stands
> alone in that view.
>
I don\'t know what Jose is talking about there..an inside post results in the same thing..i\'m trying to figure out what Jose\'s rush was to get to the lead..your horse has shown tractibility before and I thought he was in a good place on the outside of Verrazano, sticking him on the rail and stalking...You could see Johnny V wanted him off the rail by veering off of it sharply to get to your outside so why jump out in front and allow Verrazanno to stalk when you can stalk and slow it down..Instead Jose rushes to the lead and gets pressed and fades..if he is on the outside he controls his own pace, if he can\'t get by the winner fine but he can go his own pace and hold second at least..Now if that was the pre-game plan then I take it back but I thought the post draw was great from a tactical point of view...It\'s almost always better to be the stalking speed than the \"stalkee\"..Hope it works out better next race for you Jim..
edit...jusy saw Joekay posted something similar sorry..
\"Since you play NY daily I\'m sure you\'ve already seen them, but maybe I\'ll post a few of Rudy\'s recent move-ups\"
JB,
Just heard Rudy getting days for Flunixin, they gotta find more than that,no?
Mike
You know, it\'s funny. After I posted that I ran all his starters for 3 months. He has 3-4 insane moveups (6-9 points for heavily raced horses), all taking place in about 10 days, and nothing else suspicious. Tough to figure.
Positives were old,one from 4/12, the other 11/12, one winner one third.Tricky had Flunixin positives too, from memory.Used to be permitted 24 hrs out, don\'t know if that changed.
Mike