What a nice race this and the Clark turned out to be.
The horse I picked in the FCH is Golden Marlin 6-1 ML first of all I don\'t think her odds will be 6-1, I\'m looking at more like 9-1 to 12-1 with TCLady to take alot of money in here. One reason why I picked this horse is I think she can run somewhere around a 2.2 to a 3.0 and be in the mix only because of the other horses numbers collapse.
Mayo on the side---had a nice line coming into her last and then throws in a clucker in the last, which will make me back away from her this time.
Fircroft---Had the nice 1/2pt move in her last, which is a move I like to play, but what makes me not this time is the fact the number is a big number for a 3yr filly.
Sweetwater Promise---Another one with the small move forward in her last, even if she does move forward, it will have to take about a 5pt. new top to even get her to hit the board. pass for a key, but playable at long odds in the tri.
Lead Story---Funny how sheet reading can go, Nov.8 I liked her line and bet her at 35-1 and today I will be playing her to bounce off that 1.2 number. at 8-1ml a use in the tri\'s.
Awesome Humor---What to say about AH pops in a new 4pt top in her last, which I though she would run a new one. Is 4-1ml and has a good crack at this to bounce out of the money.
Cloakof Vagueness---Looks too slow on number power, is 15-1ml and will be higher than that come 3:52 thursday, only thing I could say about her good is when horses keep pairing or tripling up on numbers it\'s a sign that they are ready to move to the next level, is she?????
Misty Sixes---Had the big big number two back a 0.1 and then bounces to the moon next out, how will she come back in here, might be able to move forward off that 8.3 back to a 5 level which won\'t do anything for her.
TCLady--- 6-5ml coming off a O-2-X pattern, hard read for me on this hoss, theres no way she will run back to a -2, I give her a little shot at running a 0.2 and the weights will off set that a bit. Even is TCL runs a 2.0 and the weight could put her in the hunt but at 4-5 not for me. Only a use for the ex\'s with my key horse.
Rhiana---Is too slow and shows no pattern that I know of that will run a new top for her, being a 6yr-old does\'nt help either. Soon as a say that she will win and pay 85.00.
So that brings me back to Golden Marlin i\'ve seen this type of line that will have her moving in the right direction again.
forecast a bit iffy... if it\'s sloppy i\'m not touching this one, but:
mayo on the side: stepped up in class in last and was dusted. bred to go long on the dam side, and might be able to jump to the \"4\" lvl, but still looks a step too slow.
fircroft: nice race running wide over a dull track in last, gets in light, and has day from an inside post (a nice angle). i will use this horse, but will side with others in the top spots.
sweetwater promise: looks slow
lead story: looks like a miler, 0 for 3 at 9f. i don\' think this horse will get the 45.4 pace to close into this time. i\'m looking for a move back to the \"4\" lvl, which makes this one a use underneath in the exotics.
awesome humor: no indication this one wants to break through the \"5\" lvl going 9f. no thanks.
cloakof vagueness: looking for a jump up from this guy. second dam once had the 6 1/2f track record at Dmr, and they bred her to alysheba. now you get the el prado blood on top, and her best race has come at 9f. the last two were tough races, one in the slop at Hoo, and one over a very deep Haw strip. toss those two, and you might be looking at a \"8\" to \"4\" to \"2\" type pattern.
obviously not one of the fastest yet, but at long odds, a use for me.
misty sixes: nice tactical speed, might get the perfect trip. i\'m always skeptical of big tops run over that speedball Mth track, but a \"4\" is not out of the question. underneath in the exotics.
take charge lady: ran very well in this race last year, but even that race doesn\'t make her a lock at the weights. i\'m looking for a race in the \"1\" to \"2\" range (before taking into account the weight), and that might not be good enough. tough post, tough odds... clear class, and must be used, but as much in the 2 and 3 spots as on top.
golden marlin: big top going 6f at TP. who cares. ran a nice race in march going 1m, but was drifting out even at that distance. one of the faster ones, but the distance and post too much for me to ignore. no thanks.
rhiana: decent fig last race running wide, but not much energy left. don\'t see this one doing much better than a \"5\" here.
the bet: i might use the longshot, cloakof vagueness in the top three spots. as much as i want to, i can\'t toss TCL, so i will use her in the top three spots as well. underneath i guess i\'m stuck with fircroft, lead story, and misty sixes. good luck everyone!!
the slop scared me away from this one. if they ran the same race three weeks from now on a dry surface, i would give a similar analysis (except for TCL, i think she has had enough). i will be very interested in seeing how CoV runs in her next race. as for the fall highweight, i thought SS would show more speed. the jock nudged him along, and he couldn\'t keep up with a 22.4 pace. tough beat for those who bet papua. when SLC got scratched, and SS didn\'t fire, boss got a bit brave on a slow pace. i still think papua would have won if he wasn\'t trapped down on the rail for much of the stretch run.
now i read that SS stumbled at the start, then was bumped. i didn\'t see it. i might have to stick with this one as well next time (depending on the race of course).