On one hand, you have a heavy favorite that is conceding 6 pds to most of the field and who drew all the way outside in a big field with a relatively short run to the first turn
On the other, that same heavy favorite is very very fast on the TGs and with the points system and Pletcher\'s barn full of horses that need points in the next round of preps as well, this horse is ready to run a good race this weekend to try and get enough points here that he can get out of the way of all the other Pletchers that need points
tough to figure out what to do with that.
should be very interesting
Jim
I\'m anxious to see how it plays out as well. I\'m convinced vyjack isn\'t a true two turn horse. He draws outside as well
Aqueduct suffers from conveyor belt syndrome just as Gulf Stream does. I haven\'t seen the numbers but ill look for one drawn inside w tactical speed and decent number power.
All in all a pretty week race
Almost as bad as last weak at Fairgrounds
I am not sure we can say any race that has the Remsen winner that has run two numbers that could win the Derby before March of their three year old year is a \"weak\" race.
I think we can say it\'s not very deep but I don\'t think we can say it\'s weak.
I think a lot depends on how they bet it. If O opens like VIO did last week (less than evens) then have to take a shot against him. If he\'s 5/2 on the other hand I\'d say he\'s reasonably playable.
This kind of reminds me of Big Browns Florida Derby where the Race Shape made a huge difference in deciding upon whether he\'d get clear or not.
Here\'s my take on the Remsen, which I might have confirmed today or make me feel foolish if I\'m wrong. I think there are 2 types of aberrant races. One is the slow race that is very good and turns out to be a key race. Those type of races are money makers because one can bet horses out of that race at better odds because the speed figure handicappers will miss the horse. The 2nd type is the fast race that is not very good where the horses coming out of it under-perform the figure earned in that race. I believe the Remsen falls into the type 2 aberration.
Now it\'s a little tough to evaluate the Remsen since the top 3 horses were 17 lengths ahead of the rest of the field and only Normandy Invasion has raced back among those three, but it\'s been over 3 months since the race and none of the 5 horses who have run back have won. At this point the Remsen is headed towards the negative-key race column. After Overanalyze and Delhomme run again, my thoughts will either be confirmed or proved wrong.
I\'m going to try to beat Overanalyze with Vyjack and Ore Pass.
I think you are dead on. The issue here is what does he have to beat? Now having said that he is breaking from the 12 post and will be like 6/5. But also remember last year Hansen shipped in from GP had an outside post and rolled. And races like the Futurity and the Hopeful and a first out maiden win at Saratoga are not a mystery. Overanalyze has been training with better horses everyday than he will face today. But cant blame anyone for trying to beat him or toss him in that $500K Pick 4.
I keep looking at these Inner Aqueduct races today and reminding myself \"this isnt Gulfstream quality\". Like the newly trained Chad Brown runner and the groundsaving 1 in the Top Flight. Team Trinneburg will be in the mix in the Tom Fool which is a pretty good betting race.
Doesnt look like rain today in South Florida but chilly. Good Luck everyone.
Top,
Good point, Remsen figs had a mild odor before the top 3 raced back. Both Stay Thirsty(1 mile) and Dance Card raced after the Remsen to fast-ish raw times considering track speed up to the Remsen.
Remsen figs for the top three possibly too generous although Normandy Invasion had a bad trip in his common performance and Overanalyze has drawn a very bad post. Delhomme, yet to race back.
Have to see top 3 race back at least twice as 3 yr olds to have a better view of the Remsen.
Mike
I disagree with the above interpretations of the Remsen. It was a fast race. NI came back to run well in his first, not quite to his top but clearly primed for a new top in Wood. Overanalyze\'s 0 in the Remsen towers over these guys IF he wasn\'t drawn in the 12. Race Shape shows (unlike Big Brown\'s Fla Derby) he WILL lose ALL the ground. Could be 6 wide!!! on first turn. Certainly JV will ride him like he\'s the best which means probably AT BEST a 4w3w trip.
Not for me at the assumed price.
Seems to me the obvious play here is the Tombetta. He got back to his, already, quite fast top he ran in his debut, in his last, and with his inside draw will be at worst 2w on first turn, before likely powering past Escape on the 2nd, which means a 2w1w journey. At minimum he\'ll save 4 lengths of ground vs Overanalyze and likely even more than that. That\'s 2.25 pts, without any devolopement. Add in a pt or 2 of grow which totally could happen given his pattern, and he\'s right there. O still very tough, but at the price 12:1 (and maybe longer if O gets\' bet crazy like most TAP\'s) he\'s gotta be the play.
Vyjack certainly a concern but no guarentee he gets back to his top after the 4pt bounce in last or that he really wants to go this far, plus he is drawn 5 spots wider than War Pass. Plus he\'ll be miles shorter than Ore Pass. Pass at the price.
I\'m playing Ore Pass to win, and a saver exacta undernearth Overanalyze.
(the 1st lasix for Elnaawi does peak the interest, but he\'s way slow and way wide...not sure even solid drugs can overcome both of those problems).
Absolutely agree Phil.
Vyjack\'s price won\'t be a bargain either. I also like Ore Pass at a price, and think Overanalyze is the clear danger bad post or not. Small saver under that one. Small ex boxes Ore Pass with Elnaawi and Escapefromreality.
Great day of racing, I\'ll be watching from the airport, flying back to reality. Good luck everyone.
Another big fig Remsen runner empty.
I am sure somebody is going to post that the fig won\'t be that bad for Overanalyze because of all the ground loss.
But before anybody does post that, they should watch the replay and see how he is losing ground, being scrubbed on, unable to hold position, before they even got to the half. Forget about the ground loss, he was awful.
It is now March and Derby picture still extremely muddled. Wouldn\'t take 10-1 on anybody.
Wow Jimbo, you should go on tour, hilarious post.
Only a complete moron would even attempt to compare the races of Normandy Invasion and Overanalyze and call them similar. OA raced nowhere near as wide, was many lengths further back at the end, and was losing ground and doing his worst running at the end of the race as opposed to gaining 6 lengths on the winner and doing his best running at the end of the race like NI was.
I didn\'t see the final time but have to say that Vyjack looked visualy impressive - explosive stretch run.
Better testing in Ky.
Vyjack mada a big run on dull surface,bum Rosario lost ground as usual.Preliminary Beyer 93 seems fair.
Pretty unusual to see three 1 1/16 mile races all within .02 seconds. The start may have compromised some in the Gotham. Hard to read, other than the winner.
Any thoughts on Gunderman\'s race at GP? Seems to flatter Bradster and Verrazano at least.
Tread,
I will consider the tour. Thanks for the advice.
I also want to thank you for your continued participation in the betting pools.
As for the comparison of the races, not sure I directly compared them, but I do believe both races were awful. However, I would agree with you that many more, like you, will find excuses for the poor performance by the Chad Brown horse. So be it. That makes that race more personally valuable to me. He will be overbet and a likely underlay wherever he shows up next, as opposed to Overanalyze, who lost some ground, but seemed unprepared by Pletcher off the break, out of energy after a half mile. Very unusual for a Pletcher horse early in the 3 year old season, they usually fire early. Not sure what to make of it, other than that I won\'t be betting him either, any time soon.
Jim
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Tread,
>
, as opposed to
> Overanalyze, who lost some ground, but seemed
> unprepared by Pletcher off the break, out of
> energy after a half mile. Very unusual for a
> Pletcher horse early in the 3 year old season,
> they usually fire early. Not sure what to make of
> it, other than that I won\'t be betting him either,
> any time soon.
>
> Jim
FWIW Maggie did mention that Overanalyze has not really grown much from last year to this year in her paddock report..Could be the rest have just caught up or passed him..
If Rosario\'s a bum I can throw my hat in the ring for Pope.
Have gone over this thread a few times and surprised nobody stated the obvious ...
that this is the type of runner, arguably fastest or not, that TG players should
lay in wait hoping to bet against, based on the weight carried and the potential
for a wide trip and the lack of value and the layoff etc.
Sounds like a redboard, but unfortunately while I did not include Overanalyze on
any multiple race wager, there was an absence of chaos which made for some slim
horizontal rewards. I hope someone out there did the right thing, tossed this
colt out of the verticals, and got paid.
Overanalyze\'s expected 4w3w trip could have been much worse if the second place
finisher had not run interference for the Pletcher colt, crowding most of the
field and causing NASCAR like chain reactions into the first turn.
Gotham gossip: Transparent (6th, beaten about 5 lengths) had an eventful journey.
Even after being \"bumped\", placed in \"tight quarters\" and being \"bumped again\", he
somehow emerged as the \"primary pursuer\", then \"backing away\" in mid stretch.
Would like to see this expensive colt with a clean trip and if and when Lasix is added.
Escape From Reality (9th, beaten about 10 lengths) another eventful journey \"in
tight quarters\", \"turned sideways\", \"clipped from behind after being bumped in the
hindquarters\', this one never looked comfortable and could turn into a nice NYB if
kept off the Derby trail.
Vyjack: I am not a pace expert, but it seems like this one sat well back and wide
of a moderate pace and was the only participant really running at the end of this
heat. If you like this gelding, you have to hope that RudyRod is canny enough to
have him less than fully cranked for the Wood. (If Vyjack was a colt, winning the
Wood would (sorry) be more imperative). Speaking of RRod, I was surprised to see
that his strike rate in graded stakes is a fancy 34%, albeit from a small sample.
With regards to El Jefe\'s comment about \"tough testing in KY\", which I
think was offered in response to a mention of Vyjack\'s vyability at the Big Dance,
let us all remind ourselves that the winners of 3 of the last 5 Derbies were
runners trained by a) a banned multiple offender (2008); b) everyone\'s usual
suspect (not mine) (2010); and another multiple offender (2012).
Wanted to compliment Comma to the Top on his gameness in the Tom Fool, but in
retrospect he was not beating a Grade III quality field. Still quite an effort
considering he had run the previous Saturday and shipped cross country. And
speaking of the quality of the stakes fields, must note that 3 or 4 of the 7
starters in the Gr II Top Flight had recently run in claiming races.