What did we learn from yesterday\'s 2 preps?
IMHO the Risen Star told us nothing, a roughly run race with a lot of early trouble for the main contenders. A race that collapsed in the stretch off a slow pace on a tiring race track. I don\'t follow Fairgrounds on a regular basis but with 2 days of heavy rain before the race; I feel they were very liberal calling it a fast track.
Congrats to Keith Desormeaux winning a big one for one of the first families of Cajun race trackers.
Now the FOY showed us something; the top 2 had very healthy developing patterns coming into the race and I\'m sure their graphs continue south. Violence spotting weight, being close to a very hot pace on the Gulfstream speedway and being challenged for the first time showed a lot. Orb was flying at the end; granted he had a target and pace set up his way but still a very impressive run and I\'m sure Shug continues moving him forward without squeezing the lemon dry.
The first 2 look very real and legitimate to me for the first Saturday in May; nothing else that ran in either race yesterday showed me much.
Good luck,
Frank D.
I just finished looking at the FOY in the Redboard Room & I found it very surprising how slow the field was going into the race.
In order for any of the FOY horses to get anywhere near a Kentucky Derby winning figure, they\'re going to have to show a lot of development in a short time. On just pure numbers, they have a long way to go.
Since the Risen Star was the ROW, the numbers were already up yesterday and they came into the race a lot faster than the group down in Florida. The winner looked like a rank outsider in that field that had at least 5 horses with tops much faster than the FOY group.
My gut reaction to the races and numbers is that we didn\'t see the Derby winner yesterday.
Live Lively,3yr old filly,ran just about as fast as Orb an hour before. Fast pace on fast surface in FOY caused a pedestrian last 5/16ths,Castellano may have moved into that 1.08+ split a bit early but had no real excuse off a perfect trip.Orb gets a top off great set up in front of him but does not run his best unless launching outside, a possible problem going forward.
Risen Star field horrific,winner a joke,dirt surface very slow.Highly touted Derby prospect and favorite,Normandy Invasion,empty!
Mike
I thought the Rachel Alexandra winning physically looked good. Ran green and is still developing.
Frank maybe you have the right explanation on the Risen Star. The tiring drying out traxk. I thought when Oxbow moved cleared he was a winner maybe 2nd at worst. Horses he had put away came back to beat him and I was wondering....what the heck happened.
I have no complaints on a great day of racing like yesterday. Very few winners for me but the assessment evaluation elimination process starts anew this time of the year xome Monday and that is a big part.of the fun!!
Beyer gave Orb a 97 and I\'ve Struck A Nerve 95.... both a little generous.
Silver Charm -
I think you\'re being a little hard on Oxbow. He was 5 wide through the first turn, 2-3 wide through the second, gave weight to the entire field, and was beaten only half a length for all the money. He has to get the best figure in the race by a healthy margin.
His problem is that he only picked up 5 points for the effort, may have set himself up for a bounce, and probably needs to run 1-2 to make the field if he only runs once more before the Derby. It will interesting to see how Lukas manages him. Will he opt for the new school approach of 5 weeks into the LA Derby, then 5 weeks to Louisville, or go for something more old school?
I must have been watching a different race, because I don\'t understand why people are saying Normandy Invasion was a no-show. Yes, he broke terribly and raced greenly in the early part of the stretch, but he is getting to the front 4 at the wire and catches them just a few jumps after, and this is a no-show effort?
Given he wasn\'t much more than a length behind Oxbow and race 5 wide then 6 wide, I\'m pretty sure it is him and not Oxbow that gets the lowest figure, but I guess we will see.
When you look at the figures of the horses that ran well in the Mineshaft and then compare the time/trip to what happened in the Risen Star, it is quite possible to expect Oxbow and NormandyInvasion to have run something in the 0-2 range, which overall would make this a VERY strong Derby prep race full of promising horses. Now, granted the track probably sped up a bit between the two races so that might be a bit optimistic, but that is my guess.
So what you are saying is going into yesterday he was \"Last 4 In\" and now he is a \"First 4 Out\".
Agreed he probably needs points. Was nipped for.several more yesterday and these Final Preps are going.to be like Elite 8 games....which resemble a Brawl to get.to the Final Four....or Derby Starting Gate!!
TreadHead -
I agree with you that Normandy Invasion didn\'t run that badly. Not only did the incidents at the start cost him ground, but they may have made him a little rank early. That may have been why Lezcano, after moving him to the inside after the trouble, let him drift back outside through the first turn.
As for the fig, he doesn\'t get credit for the trouble in the fig, and I think you\'re overstating how wide he was through the turns. He fanned wide into the stretch, but was only about 3 wide through the second turn. Of course, I\'ve only seen a pan shot. I suppose a head-on shot might give me a different view.
I agree the first turn is pretty tough to assess between Oxbow and NI, and Oxbow definitely had a wide run there, but NI is REALLY wide the back part of that turn and that is probably a wash. The second turn there is no possible way you can convince me that NI didn\'t travel at least 2 paths worse than Oxbow there, which is going to put their figures darn near even, if not NIs being better.
NI is running outward on each of those turns, which definitely costs him a lot of ground, whereas Oxbow is improving his position on each of those turns.
per Jay Privman reporting on DRF, Violence suffered a fractured sesamoid but does not require surgery.
Not surprising after seeing the BRIS pace figures, he ran 104 and 121 the first 2 segments, 121 is a figure I\'m not sure I\'ve ever seen from them.
FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> What did we learn from yesterday\'s 2 preps?
>
>
> Now the FOY showed us something;
>
> The first 2 look very real and legitimate to me
> for the first Saturday in May; nothing else that
> ran in either race yesterday showed me much.
>
> Good luck,
>
> Frank D.
i\'ve seen a lot of people around the web saying that the foy wasn\'t that fast yesterday, but personally i don\'t see how they\'re coming to that conclusion.
everyone\'s saying the pace collapsed, but decelerating doesn\'t automatically = collapsing. hansen\'s speed collapsed in the final 1/4 of the holy bull last year, but majestic hussar\'s speed, in his first route race, can\'t really be said to have collapsed, at least not tragically so. he still managed fairly respectable closing fractions, given he ran 23.1, 45.4, 1:08.8 for the first six furlongs: 1:36.8 and 1:43.8 would amount to a solid wining effort at most tracks on most days.
gulfstream wasn\'t santa anita fast yesterday, it was about par for the track. no other 6f was run under 1:10 all day, and the fastest miles were tied at 1:35.3 by orb and live lively. plus there was a pretty brisk head wind the horses were running into in the stretch.
orb ran 24.1, 46.5, 1:09.7, 1:35.3 and 1:42.2 (same times for 8f and 8.5f as the devona dale winning filly, who ran slower early, than he did); and he was the only winner to come from further back than 2nd all day.
his final 1/4 was about the same as algorithms\'s final quarter in the holy bull last year (who ran much slower internal fractions than orb). and yeah, i know you can\'t compare raw speeds--but a final 1/4 just under 26 seconds after running the half in 46.5, seems a little bit more justifiable than closing just under 26 after running a 48 second half.
even the horse that finished dead last, elmutahid (running without lasix), ran 23.5, 45.9, and 1:10 flat for the first 6f--while the winning filly the race before (the devona dale) only ran 1:10.2 for 6f. given that he was eased in the stretch when it became clear he wasn\'t going to factor at all, his final fractions, weren\'t that embarrassing, all things considered: 1:38.2 and 1:45.6.
i\'m not saying that any of these horses are the next coming of dr. fager, or will win the ky derby, let alone the triple crown, i\'m not even particularly partial to any of them--i\'m just not understanding the widespread denounciation of a race that was at least a solid effort, if not a strong effort, from all of the runners.
that\'s sad news--the foy is a mean race, it takes out a lot of horses every year
Treadhead,
You are a much more forgiving man than I am if you liked or even tolerated the race Normandy Invasion ran.
I can\'t completely toss a horse who ran as fast as he did last year, off of one bad race, but I am putting a pencil \"toss\" mark on him.
I thought his race was horrific, in a horse racing sense, although I concede his TG fig won\'t reflect that. Yes, he lost ground on both turns and he finished amongst 7 horses or so at the finish, so his ground loss loaded figure will be OK (most likely). However, that figure doesn\'t reflect that the ground loss was self-induced, with another bad start. The horse has no tactical speed for positioning and no \"quick\" in him, or at least didn\'t show it at any time to me on Saturday. He grinded away wide, amongst a bunch of horses who all finished together. 7 horses that close at the wire is almost an automatic sign of a bad race. Not to mention that several of them that finished ahead of him were \"confirmed slugs\". I thought it was an absolutely AWFUL and HORRIFIC race, for any horse that competed in it and would not bet any of them back against any real competition.
I know the Beyer figures are similar, but compare the race at Fairgrounds to the race at Gulfstream and it is pretty clear to me which is better. At Gulf, they cut out a 1:08 and change 3/4 mile split, on a track where salty high level claimers went 1:11 for a final time. Not to mention the vicious internal splits run within the race. All signs of a quality race. Unfortunately, one of the two horses who ran well in the race won\'t be racing again any time soon (if at all). But the Gulf race was a \"real race\" in my mind.
No interest for me in any of the Fairgrounds horse at all. (which likely just put at least 2 of them into the Superfecta in the Derby!)
Jim
Some fair points Jimbo, but some not-so-fair ones as well. I\'m not making any excuses for how he ran, he was green, rank, and clearly not on his game. This to me says there is easy room for improvement in his next start. The million dollar question then becomes, did he finish so close to the others because it was bad field
I think the Gulfstream comparisons are ridiculous. If we are talking about 10F horses for May, you can\'t possibly tell me there was anything in that race that was inspiring. Lost in the discussion is the fact that Orb ran a 22 second early/middle spilt as well and was crawling home himself, just at a slightly better rate than (an injured) Violence was. If this is how he reacts to early speed, he won\'t stand a chance against some of these better horses at 10F.
The TG folks can tell us about the track variants if they like, but I\'m also assuming that the surfaces were very different, with FG likely being very tiring as it dried out from a lot of moisture not only during the week, but earlier that day. Gulfstream was an obvious tarmac, and a conveyor belt. Comparing times from these two places seems meaningless.
Now, I\'m still not convinced NormandyInv is a 10F either based on the breeding, but if you combine some of the early speed from Gulfstream (and what we are going to likely see from Oaklawn and SantaAnita horses) with some of the middle-mover/plodders we saw in the Risen Star, I\'m not minding his grinding style at all. He seemed ready to dispatch that field if the race were just a bit longer, and with most of the other speed horses I\'ve seen so far looking like they may have trouble at 9F, let alone 10F, I\'m definitely keeping NormandyInv on my list for another look when they go 9F next out.
EDIT - Here is an in-depth look at the FOY and Gulfstream track configuration, interesting reading: http://www.followhorseracing.com/en/the-latest/blogs/2013/02/25/inside-the-trip-turns-and-times/
Treadhead,
We will just have to agree to disagree. While I may be admittedly prematurely tossing all the Fairgrounds horses, I am 100% comfortable in my opinion that the Gulfstream comparisons are very good. I could care less that Orb\'s final closing time was slowish, because the splits of the race were vicious. Even a solid close, like his, would result in slowish raw times because all the horses were going faster than they needed to for the first 6 furlongs.
I am also as certain as I can be that Orb will be very comfortable with the 1 1/4 distance. A belief I already held, but then was emboldened, when a very knowledgeable, albeit \"curmudgeonesque\" regular poster here told me Saturday before the race that Orb was his Belmont horse.
Jim
According to Brown, he and owner Rick Porter are going to send Normandy Invasion to the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 6.
"He's run two of his four career starts there, and both of them were really good," Brown said. "It's a no-brainer, especially with him having only one shot now to get the points. He has a race under his belt now. We got a good race into him Saturday; he ran a strong last quarter. The race should set us up for start two off the layoff.
"However, we didn't earn any points, that's the bad thing. We knew going in, when we decided to run him only twice before the Derby, that we could be putting all our eggs in one basket in his second start. But we're still happy with that plan, because if we do earn our way in we'll have a horse third off the layoff that will be sitting on a new top. If I get there I want to get there with a chance to win. I don't want to go just to say I'm in the Derby."
Connections always paint the best picture.NI did not have the big run he showed in the Remsen or prior race on Sat,empty all the way, looked to be gaining on a field that collapsed late(5 horses within 2 lengths at the wire)Very disappointing performance sans an apparent excuse.
Maybe the surface or was trained short coming in an excuse.Not the most robust colt and very weakly bred on the dam side.
Mike
Really interested to see how TG scores the Risen Star and who they work off of.
Winner was slow going in and saved all the ground but that has to be a new top.
Oxbow wide and giving weight what do you do with him?
Do you give Code West a pair and go from there?
Only conclusions I can draw are that Proud Strike and Mylute(perfect trip backed up in the stretch)ran bad and maybe Palace Malice needs blinkers given his start and stretch run.
As far as the top five go I\'m inclined to wait on the #\'s and see how they do in the next one stretching out to nine furlongs.Some of them might be okay.
Big,
Beyer has it way fast, sucked in by the pedestrian paced Mark Valeski race and two other slow two turn races featuring slowish types(Ground Transport race at 1 mile 70 yds projects out well against MV race and Risen Star).Track speed in the race following the Risen Star,albeit a sprint,noteworthy.The slug that won the Risen Star ran past several through the lane confirming the common-ness of the performance of that field on the whole.Track condition may have been the culprit.
Lots of ground loss for several.Code West, Oxbow did the most \"running\" in there, Oxbow ugly wide trip early,used along the backside to gain contention, wide off the far turn.Code West very game, flanked and fighting most of the way.
Mike
Time for my annual post.
IT\'S ONLY FEBRUARY, GUYS.
IT\'S ONLY FEBRUARY, GUYS
Late Feb not the same anymore if you dont win an early 50 point prep JB,with many taking only 2 swings to get into the Derby.In the case of the much discusssed Normandy Invasion, he most likely has to win his next race to make it to the gate on Derby day.New Derby qualifying formula already has one top outfit rethinking 2 vs 3 preps, if the formula remains as is.
Mike
He may only have to finish second in the Wood to get in. He evidently picked up 4 points in the Remsen, I think 44 would put him on the fence.
But that aside, what\'s being discussed here is who figures to be able to run WELL in the Derby, and the most important indicators of that take place in late March and April (as I think you have pointed out in the past as well). Even taking the trip out of it, that was Normandy\'s first start off a layoff, and he marched forward last year.
On the larger comment about the point system,the way they did it loads almost everything on the horses\' last two starts preps. That may in fact cause trainers to bring thm out later, depending on training style. Brown (the other one) is making a calculation that his colt will get back to his top next time out. If he\'s right he\'ll probably get in, and if he\'s wrong he\'ll have a big shot in the Preakness. If he doesn\'t get back to his top management is academic.
Typical of the Clueless Clowns JB, UAE Derby and the Bluegrass(a turf race imo) have more point value than the FOY?
Agree that trainers are managing different to favor last high value point races. In the case of NI,he\'s not the most robust colt and I think that was also a contributing factor in 2 preps,as 3 may have taxed this one too much to have anything left for a big derby performance.
You may be aware that Brown,that one,is somewhat a sheet slave.
Derby fever can make one delusional!
\"Owner Rick Porter said Normandy Invasion will have a new rider, yet to be determined.
"We were so much the best horse when you look at the race," Porter said. "We got beat a length and a half and must have spotted the leader 15 lengths, by the time we finished stumbling, then going wide. The winner was the one horse behind us. We made our move together between the half-mile pole and three-eighths pole. He (Ive Struck a Nerve) went the good route....
"... It was almost impossible to win the race from where we were. We would have had to have been Secretariat. I'm not discouraged. I think if we'd had a clean break we win by five, six lengths – if we'd gotten decent position, tucked in sixth or seventh and made the move we made... He came running and almost caught them. I'm still very encouraged."
While agree that the statement(s) by Porter are almost stupid, I can\'t disagree with his decision with Lezcano.
Think this guy has one of the largest standard deviations of rides. He seems to make good ground saving decisions on the turf from time to race, but then makes downright awful decisions many times (for a top rider). He thought it was a good idea to go 1:08 with Majestic Hussar (horse wasn\'t winning anyway, but 1:08?) Watched him botch Winter Memories a number of times with dumb rides as well.
Jim,
Lezcano is an enigma. He seems to get tossed from every big horse he rides and finds more trouble than anybody. Yet he has one of the highest ROIs year after year. I\'m pretty sure he\'s the highest ROI guy of all the major jocks over the last 3 years.
I don\'t have a strong opinion on what the connections should do with NI, but with that pedigree, the horse has no business running longer than a mile in this kind of company. But he ran a legit 9f in the Remson, and had the perfect tune-up on Saturday to collect the 50 Derby points in the Wood. Brown and Lezcano seemed to have positioned a colt with those genes pretty well. Will be interesting to see how the stretch run looks after the next jock makes NI expend more energy earlier in the race.
As for the Risen Star, the only value I see going forward is maybe Oxbow off the pedigree and wide trip & 120 lbs. (though not a ton of value). Not a lot of interest in the FOY runners. Nothing wrong with Orb, but the perfect trip under 116 lbs makes him a little worse than his current standing, imo. Why do I think Zito and Lezcano are going to pick off all those Fla Derby runners with something that\'s 8 points too slow?
Michael,
Interesting fact on Lezcano (his ROI). I didn\'t realize that.
I don\'t doubt that Orb\'s bandwagon is a bit larger than it should be now. I also don\'t doubt that if we get a typical glib Gulf surface on Florida Derby day, that I will be betting with both fists against Orb, if he goes off a short price and he doesn\'t get the vicious pace he got last Saturday.
That said, he figures to get it in the Derby, as the pace is usually good. He is well bred for the distance IMO, has a trainer that won\'t race him in the Derby unless he is going to run well, so if he makes it to the gate, he will likely be interesting (to me).
That said, a not so wise man once said \"its only February\"........... :)
One way to think about this stuff is to think about what figure you could see on each hose\'s sheet next time to make you like him in the Derby, and what figure you would expect.
Orb made a big jump and has developed a lot from his 2yo top already, and Shug horses are running lights out right now. And if you think he\'s going back next time he\'s especially tough to like in Ky.
I\'m still dying to hear your opinion on Normandy Invasion, though I can\'t blame you for not sharing it if it is positive, as this apparently leads to the masses ganging up on you.
Other than the exaggeration over the lost lengths, I find the owner\'s comments spot on. Just saw the BRIS pace and speed figures for both those races and they gave he and the winner some strong closing (triple digit) pace figures, which to me says they think the track was playing slowly. Too bad we have to wait more than a month for them to race again! It\'s going to be a long wait.
Treadhead,
Nobody is ganging up on you. Actually sounds like some others, like Michael D., like the Fairgrounds race better than the Gulf race.
As for TGJB\'s opinion on Normandy Invasion, I would lay 3-5 it is something like:
\"It depends on his next race. A healthy 3 year old has to get back to his 2 year old top by his second race. If he runs the \"1\" again in the Wood, he becomes a strong contender in the Derby as he could even run better in the Derby and the \"1\" would likely make him a contender even without a new top. But if he can\'t get back to the 1, he becomes another in the long line of early developers that don\'t progress at 3. Or at least you have to bet him that way\".
Jim
Jim, it\'s not that I liked the Risen Star better, just that I thought the only value going forward (next out) might be Oxbow.
Ah! Ok, so maybe we all were piling on Treadhead.... :)
Trust me, my opinion is not popular in the Twitter-verse either, apparently I am on an island here in that this was pretty much exactly what I would want to see 1st time out for someone with his 2 yr old figs. An extremely buried effort for a horse that is already proven at 9F on a horse with a running style that will not get caught up trying to stay too close to the pace when more speed is added to these larger and larger prep fields. But we will see, that\'s what makes it fun!
TGJB,
The most important indicator of a horse being ready to run well in the Derby is two good races (pairs and tops) in the final two preps, even if one of those races is run in February. Normandy Invasion and a good number of other horses who ran Saturday were probably running in their next-to-last prep, and so their performance in that race is really important. An off race, regardless of whether a layoff is involved or anything else, is a warning sign about the horse's likely ability to run well in the Derby.
Some horses who don't have the preferred pattern of only pairs and tops in the final two preps will run a good race in the Derby, but there just isn't any evidence that it is preferable that the better performance of the two be in the final prep. In fact I can't find a Derby winner with that pattern, but can find two who ran well in their next to last prep but went back in their final preps – Monarchos and I'll Have Another.
In the context of NI, the other factor to consider is the overall magnitude of his 2yo top. 1¼ in November is a huge number, whether he marched forward or not, and it was run months before the other fast horses who ran in the Saturday stakes ran their slower tops. He may struggle for some time to get back to it, somewhat like Mucho Macho Man did.
Most of the times a horse came in off two good numbers (and in fact most of the time they came into the Derby off any numbers) they had more than two preps, which makes those cases a little different. Also, you may be making an assumption about what # NI ran (though you are right that it wasn\'t a top).
If he doesn\'t get back to his top next time (i.e. was hurt by the big 2yo effort) it\'s a problem all right. Which goes to the it\'s-only-February thing. But I would be careful about lumping horses with a big 2yo top (Street Sense) in with those that need to be developing now. Regardless, until we see his next figure it\'s tough to evaluate him.