i have not decided how i will bet this race yet, but a few thoughts:
the three favorites make sense, i guess that\'s why they are they favorites. if i can get 3-1 or 4-1 on Riskaverse, i will use her.
if i can get the morning line of 8-1 on Quick Tip, i will use her. i think she is ready to get back to the \"3\" lvl after two tough trips, and gets 4 lbs from the fav. the post is the obvious problem. if sellers can somehow get the two or three path into the first turn (he has the entire length of the stretch to do it), i think the horse will be close. i might use one longshot, Delmonico Cat. the horse has a few figures that fit here, and seems to be closing well in her 1 1/16m races. her tom turf # is excellent (399), and she has a few sibs that have run well routing on turf. the post is the obvious problem, so Lanerie will have to do some good things here, but she gets 6 lbs from the fav and is 20-1 morning line. of course if the turf is favoring speed, they will all be looking at Bien Nicole\'s tail...
Good Luck!!!
Heres my take into the race. First, on the 3 fav\'s.
The one I like the best out of the three is RISK, but still not too crazy about her. I feel like the outside post and the weights on BIEN will hurt her big time even if she runs atless a 3.1, QUICK T. is having hard time getting back to a level that she had early in the year, turf horses should not be having problems like this one. So my top pick in here is going to be DICK\'S CHICK 20-1ml, the horse had a top of last year a 6.2,two back she ran a new top, only went forward 1.1pt, and backed up only a bit in her last. DC has had about 5 weeks off that top and looks ready to run a new one in here. How much?? is the big question I will say a 3.2 threw a 4.1, she will have to work hard for it running those numbers. A super long-shot bomb I like is DELICATESSA 30-1ml
I don\'t really bet turf races anymore and Im probably not gonna bet this one but if ever a horse looked like another sixteenth would help it out, Delmonico Cat sure looks like that horse. That said I won\'t bet her. She looks like a grinder to me.
I\'m also not real fond of the Grade I mares dropping in here to try and steal the money after failing in the Breeders Cup. I don\'t think this race was their goal. The hope is they\'re classy and fast enough to take it even though they didn\'t point for it. I don\'t like that. I make Bien Nicole the better of the two but I\'m not sure she has a disposition for the Churchill grass. She failed in this race last year.
I don\'t bet Jockeys and Trainers so how can I bet Dyna Da Wyna. (Day and Elliot) Additionally, shes a three year old and hasn\'t run the distance. But you know what...I like her. She looks to have the tactical speed to keep Nicole Bien honest. She is working great and of course she\'s getting weight.
Then theres Firth of Lorne. She was second in a Group I at Longchamp. Took some injury time it appears. Ran a poor first race back then ran what appears to be a very game effort at Bay Meadows. I like her. But how can you bet on or against a horse like this in a race where theres not enough room to maneuver?
\"Here comes speedy\"
The Cardinal....the easiest pass.
lol
CtC
Chuckles---
I know I\'m past posting here; I rather play against the BC dirt runners in November and December. They tend to have a better chance of bouncing. The turf horses seem to hold it together at least one more race.
No matter. I tossed BIEN NICOLE from the outside post so what do I know.
Good Luck,
Joe B.