A full field of 2 year olds running 1 1/16 in December on plastic wouldn\'t normally be a race that gets my attention.However anytime that you can toss the 2 favorites in an 11 horse field; it makes for great tri and super possibilities.
He\'s Had Enough & Violence are both tosses IMHO from at least the tri and I\'ll not use either in the super as well. Any horse coming out of the BC Juvenile including Shanghai Bobby will have to show me something more before they get a nickel of my money. Lasix issue aside the race completely fell apart and was a disgrace for a championship heat.Violence on the other hand I simply hate as he cost me at least a 40k score in verticals & horizontals the day he broke his maiden at the Spa. D Wayne\'s Tittletown Five lead every step but the last one that day and it cost me and if I remember correctly TGJB even more than that!!!!!
Now if he had 4\'s and was 5/1 I would certainly forgive him but he\'s not the fastest horse in the race and will be the favorite so Goodbye!
I believe a 6 is good enough to win this race and 2 horses have already run that number and there is no reason to think anyone besides Mr. Greely well beyond already; and Title Contender will run 6 or lower. These 2 will be the on top plays keyed in exacta\'s, tri\'s and supers as both should be 5/1 or more.
The underneath plays are Dirty Swagg obvious at the ML, both Simon Eyes & Furi Kapcori coming off pairs that should move them forward at the end of their 2 yr old year and from the 11 hole Oxbow. Oxbow really interests me and would be more of a play if he was not drawn all the way out. Great developing pattern and Awesome Again\'s off spring seem to run parallel on dirt & plastic; the cushion track plays as close to dirt as it gets.
Good luck and Happy Holiday\'s to all,
Frank D.
Frank, the \"birds on the bat\" like your style! Good luck, and best wishes to you and yours for a great Xmas, and a big payout today.
Always appreciate anyone who puts their plays out with analysis before the race Frank; but this one is a bit confusing.
On one hand you point out the tremendous collapse of the juvenile and your disdain for the entire field; then you put Title Contender who stopped to a slow walk in that race on top of your tickets ???
Bells,
A good point and I should have elaborated a bit more. The Juvenile was a non effort for Tittle Contender as far as I was concerned; he got stopped completely cold. A race I drew a line threw and was looking for him to run back to his previous 6. My point was meant for the O\'Niell horse in this race & Shanghai Bobby going forward.
Obviously my take on the race and read on Violence was 180 degrees in the wrong direction. I don\'t like to play back horses who bore in or bore out, especially young ones; as well as the east to west ship this time of year.
Good luck,
Frank D.