Anyone care to speculate on how much money one would have to wager to drive the 3-1 double from $130 to $54 and the 3-7 from $173 to $54 in one tick as happened within the last minute of betting on the first race at Aqueduct on Friday .
Pitty the fool.
I guess someone really liked the 3.
Joe B.
To figure out exactly how much was bet would require knowing all the payout changes, but here is a rough estimate of what it would take to move a DD pay from 130 to 54.
What we know:
Total early AQU DD pool -- $201,700
AQU DD Takeout -- 17.5%
Payout change on 3-1 -- from 130 to $54.
Now we just have to work backwards and figure out what the pool was before the bet.
In the end of the 201,700, about 166,402 gets paid out. If the payout is $54 per ticket, then that means about 3081 winning tickets potentially.
A little linear programming or simulation (thank goodness for Excel), you can work back to see that before the bet, the total pool would have been roughly 198,050 or 163,392 after takeout. This means at $130 per ticket, there were about 1257 tickets.
3081 minus 1257 is 1824. So if no othe combinations were bet on (obviously, not realistic), it would take about 3650 to move the payout from 130 to 54.
With other combinations obviously taking action as well, the number would have to be even bigger.
CC
Bets like that very rarely win.
No one with a decent opinion would bet that way, so its almost always a lunatic or a mistake.