thanks TG for the free Hol figs this week. is anybody going to take a shot at posting a few thoughts on the Hol races? it is my least favorite track around, so i will pass if nobody else does.
Michael D--
They should make the Turf Cup a $62,500 optional claimer. I may play HATIF in that one just so that I don\'t kick myself for the following reason: I had PRODIGUS (obviously a G1 winner in Brazil) at 53-1 in an optional claimer two weeks ago at CD only to watch him get beat by 2 noses for all the $$$.
Terry Thompson rode him that day ( I use the word \"rode\" loosely in this case)and God help him if he ever has the misfortune of crossing paths with me at anytime in the future.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
hahahaha..... i know how you feel. thanks, i have not printed the stuff up yet, but will take a look later.
I would definately be interested to hear what you think about Hollywood, as it is one of my focus tracks for the time being (don\'t ask why, it\'s a long story). I don\'t use TG for it yet, but I handicap the card and make personal odds lines for my contenders every day which get generated from a computer program I wrote and then adjusted after I look at the card.
CC
tough, tough race. i create-a-carded the other stakes around the country, and i have more of an opinion on those, but:
Hatif: no idea. $24g in purse winnings in 12 starts.... couldn\'t hang on as the 9/5 fav in the Brz derby. pass
Superiotity: might have a huge pace advantage here. seemed to have plenty of energy left in his decent 10f win, and only needs to improve a bit in terms of figs, but steps up big here. dangerous on the lead, but pass.
Staging Post: has competitive #\'s, and has shown he can run long. the question for me is: how much did the trouble in his last race cost him? looks ready to jump back to the \"4\" lvl, but that might not be enough.
Epicentre: also had a bit of trouble in his last. looks to be close, but might be just a touch slow??
Labirinto: faced some excellent horses in europe, and loves the distance. ran a bit wide last time, thus earning the better # than the winner, and might only need a slightly better trip to get the job done. post change from 9 to 5 enough for me. one of the ones.
Continuously: hit a brick wall in last, after a perfect trip. will again have a pace advantage over this field, but needs to find some more gas in the tank down the stretch. dangerous, but too iffy for me.
Bowman Mill: half to one of my old time favotites, Cetewayo. couldn\'t hit the board
in his only two 12f tries, but ran against good ones, and earned nice #\'s. had a tough post in last, and ran a bit wide, thus earning a very good #. this horse has some tactical speed, and might get a jump on the other fast horses. with dickinson in his corner, a use for me.
Hataab: 0 for 3 at 12f, and his #\'s tend to regress as he stretches out. i\'m a big fan of drysdale, but i have to pass on this one.
Runaway Dancer: brilliant ride by mikey in his last, and was able to win at 38-1. tough post change here though (from 1 to 9). pp\'s don\'t mean as much in these 12f races, but considering this guy actually ran a few lengths slower than Labirinto, i can not endorse him here.
the bet: i like Labirinto and Bowman Mill coming off fast races, both with good rest.
i will also use the frankel entry, as they are close on figs, and should get better trips than last. exacta box, 1,4,6. since these might be three of the favs, i will use Labirinto a bit more in the other exotics.
good luck everyone!!
just read the ROTW analysis..... seems we agree, except for the frankel horses. i could see continuously running well, but once he got off the DMR course, he seemed to back up a bit when going from 10f to 12f in his last two. still, your comments make a lot of sense, just confusing me more.......
Michael
All Souped Up superior breeding.
Cozzene
Nine runners, 4 trained by Brooklyn Bobby, with only 8 betting interests make it difficult to come up with a big score strategy, but that\'s never stopped me in the past. As I see it,Superiority is not an entirely unreasonable key in the 1st 2 spots for tris & supers because of the possibility, based on his last 3, that he is an entirely new horse. Splitting horses to win a dirt race & rallying to win from 21 back in his next are a far cry from anything he showed last yr, followed by a race in which, despite running on the front end for the 1st time in his life, he battled hd & hd & held on inside, which is where he should be today. He\'s the only seeming speed, but he doesn\'t need the lead & whether he gets it or not could land the kind of perfect trip which is enough to make up for some of his lack of number power. One concern is that very few of the so-called supertrainers seem to be able to work their magic on the turf, something I\'ve never understood, but the Hol turf is so hard that it can be viewed as being as close to dirt as it gets. Hence, it is not inconceivable that he could actually improve a little, which is all he needs to be a major factor at long odds. Good Luck to one & all.
I think Runaway Dancer is sitting on a huge effort,i will use with Labirinto.I also like Wixoe Express in the 6th and will use the rail horse with him.
nearly perfect on the ROTW analysis.
now i see part of the entry was dq\'d. i missed the race...... so labirinto flippped in the paddock? that would have been nice info to know. i bet the race and left, then missed it on tv......... i don\'t know why, but i have never liked hollywood park.
$39.40.......... not bad
39.40 yessssss,too bad Julie fell short in the long race I also had mi d\'or ,if Julie come lately gets up i\'m in pick 3 heaven.All in all not a bad day.Thank you JB.
I suppose that means you won\'t be back for the strangely named Audrey Shirball-Kenis Stakes at Hol today. Not only did Labrinto flip, which required a trip to the ER for Blanc, but instead of Frankel(per brisnet), the trainer turned out to be a very young man by the name of Rodolphe Collet, a 27 yr old Frenchman who looked all of 15 & who was saddling his 1st horse ever. While awaiting a new jock & what I assumed would be the vet exam which was never done, Collet looked like he had seen a ghost while walking & trying to control a still agitated Labrinto. Lab\'s odds drifted to 7/2 after the announcement of the flip, but he was bet back down to 5/2 when Mike Smith was named as the replacement, despite the look of obvious concern on Smith\'s face as Collett saddled Labrinto on the run. He & Smith then jogged through the tunnel & onto to the track, where Smith was given a leg up. He finished last at 3-1. Not exactly what one expects to see before the running of a GRI.
thanks for a great day....money...money
TGJB--
Terrific Cup analysis. However again the \"Goddess of Wagering\" finds a way to punish me.
I did not particularly care for BOWMAN MILL. After watching MACAW race at Aqueduct hours earlier, I was convinced that the Canada race was filled with overrated animals. Not to say that this group was much better, but why take 9-5 on this guy shipping west after 3 forward moves.
I liked CONTINUOUSLY and have found that excusing the one mediocre turf figure in an otherwise strong pattern is not such a bad move. But, like yourself, I feared a top effort from EPICENTRE. (I was praying that STAGING POST would scratch. I did not like him and that idea was furthur strengthened after looking at your sheets.) A slight improvement from EPICENTRE would put him there and the post and his tactical speed would help him save ground.
So what to do? I ended up making a huge CONTINUOSLY/FRANKEL ENTRY exacta box only to watch the three blind mice at Hollywood Park take it away. I\'m certain these guys have it in for Nakatani (see ELLOLUV DQ in the Lady\'s Secret vs AZERI).
Tough game...sometimes even when you win....you lose.
Still, a terrific analysis.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Credit for this week\'s ROTW goes to Alan, who wrote it.