I really have a hard time with some of your Euro turf figures. I think this is very apparent in the 8th race at Belmont on Saturday. Your making a NY bred stake winner (longest shot in the race) faster than the Euro who just won a major US Grade 1 and who came within a nod of winning the BC Filly Turf last year. Isn\'t it likely that you have the Eruo horses a point or more likely 2 points too slow? I will eat my hat if that (To use Richee\'s term) Slow Rat wins this race tomorrow.
start eating, in the money, looks good to me
Have not seen the sheets for the race but from what you describe, win or lose, hat scarf or gloves, this is a situation we should step out on.
With Euros I like to allow for the possibility of about a two point jump while adding lasix in conjunction with plus or minus signs in their pattern...Dream Peace at Saratoga improved by two points, \"altering course\" at less than her best distance...she may be a more fragile horse than the NY bred, but her last gives her an edge at the distance, especially since she has settled into her new barn...looks like both like some give in the turf...possible top for the Euro, and may save some ground.
I\'m A Dreamer also topped her Euro fig at AP, while \"held up between\" and closing at less than her best distance...if she improves to about a two the weight(and trip) could still beat her...note that this is a 5YO mare.
The intriguing filly is Starformer, suddenly moving forward on shorter spacing...love to see forward or pairing figs as distances increase, and in this case it looks like the 1 1/4M could be ideal while noting that the barn usually leaves something in the tank...possible top.
Nahrain\'s pattern is discouraging.
I see nothing to be unsettled about in the numbers...the game is called handicapping, and there are many ways to look at this intriguing field...often there is more value in the pattern over the best fig...there is art applied to the fig...it is not an absolute.
OK wiseguys, take your shot.
I see what you are saying about the lasix, and it\'s a very good point. But I won\'t believe that a horse that been completely dusted by 8 or more lengths in Grade 3 events is now the 2nd fastest horse in this race. Either the figures for the NY Stakes are wrong or far more likely TG isn\'t giving the Euros their due.
This comes up every year during the Breeders Cup. Horses like St. Nicholas Abbey and Sea Moon or Dangerous Midge or Conduit always go forward by 1 to 2 points simply because they are being treated with Lasix? I find that hard to believe, if that was so why aren\'t we seeing similar moves up on dirt?
the nyb was to close to the pace that day, probably canned the jock after that debacle. We know three things the horse likes bel, give in the ground, has some # power and is big odds, I also think the gteasy is right on with the other longshot, good luvk
Wrongly-- you\'re right, it comes up every year. How about you look at ALL the Euros who ran in the BC over the last 5 years or so-- we post the sheets, with numbers they ran, in the Archives of this site. In fact, how about you just look at all the Euros in that race, the ones behind SNA. The figures they ran in that race and previous trips stateside.
There are lots of issues with Hessonite-- will she bounce, handle the distance-- but the figures are right.