Hey Guys
What happened on Oct 23? No #\'s for horses in 3rd race at CD. Can I get them?
Thanks
Richie
RICH wrote:
> Hey Guys
>
> What happened on Oct 23? No #\'s for horses in 3rd race at CD.
> Can I get them?
>
> Thanks
> Richie
We didn\'t have enough information for a pair of 2YO races on that day to make a variant confidently.
To clarify, the situation here was similar to that for Chilukki\'s debut figure, although not as extreme. The track was changing 10/23 at Kee, and the last two sprints were maiden races with 13 of the 24 runners being first time starters, and the others having run once or twice, with nothing close to established figure levels. If there had been another sprint after the two races and the track speed had stayed close to the one established in the race prior to the two in question I could have done something with it, but the lack of information made giving out figures a guess-- anyone who did just tied it to the previous race and hoped the track didn\'t change. Aside from being dangerous to the financial health of your customers, this greatly increases the chance of making mistakes in the future, since figures are made using previous figures.
>Aside from being dangerous to the financial health of your customers, this greatly increases the chance of making mistakes in the future, since figures are made using previous figures.<
Agreed.
One possible method of dealing with that is to somehow highlight the figure as \"suspect/best guess\". That is how it is handled by one figure service I am familiar with.
Whenever I see any figure in \"bold type\" I know to take it with a grain of salt and the figure maker knows to not put much or any weight on it for future projections.
I guess you could argue either way which is better, but I prefer having the \"best guess\". I never bet \"on\" the \"best guess figure\", but I might avoid betting against it.
CH as usual you are dead on.
TGJB wrote,
\"Aside from being dangerous to the financial health of your customers, this greatly increases the chance of making mistakes in the future, since figures are made using previous figures.\"
For those people who may still be a little uncertain about this type of thing, thinking I bought this product why didn\'t I get a number. There was a day where I was at the track and the condition of the track changed and no the winner wasn\'t named Chilukki but the horses name was Occidental Tourist.
The race was maiden race at Gulfstream. Occidental Tourist was given a BOX by TG and a 100 Beyer (god only knows what by Ragozin).
He won by a length over a Bobby Hurley trained horse. Both those horses ran back on the FLA DERBY DAY UNDERCARD and were heavily bet off the numbers they were given by those speed figure services. Both horses were no where to be found at the finish of their respective races.
The box was the proper thing to do.
Occidental Tourist ran 4th in a N1X at 3.60-1. He was beaten a head for 3rd by Wiseman\'s Ferry, a graded stake winner not long after. The top two finishers also ran in top company later on in the year.
Hudson Street, Bobby Hurley\'s horse, ran 3rd in a MSW at 1.60-1. The winner of that maiden race was this year\'s BC Sprint contestant Yankee Gentleman.
It could be that nothing was wrong with the figures both horses received, just that they were beaten by very good horses.
Frank
Frank,
Thanks for adding some more facts to my previous post and anytime I post I ask that anyone go and verify what I have posted. I don\'t make any of this up.
A horse who goes off at 7-5 and is beaten by more than 6 lengths is nowhere to be found in my book. (And yes I did remember that Yankee Gentleman was the winner of that race).
You wrote,
\"It could be that nothing was wrong with the figures both horses received, just that they were beaten by very good horses.\"
That being the case how come the next time both Occidental Tourist and Hudson Street ran back, the Beyer they received in that maiden race was lowered. Was their Ragozin # also subsequently changed.
But hey it was only Fla Derby Day probably no one was watching and wagering.
But hey it
SC,
I was not aware that Beyer went back and changed both horses figures. And I have no idea what Ragozin did with the race. At that time I was still a TG customer.
I was just questioning your implication that both horses ran horribly and the reasoning that followed. That any figure maker not named TG got it wrong. I thought both horses actually ran quite well. But that\'s not my issue with your post. The issue is how you can look at the result of a single race and determine that the figures the horses received in its previous race were wrong.
Frank