Day 14 and unquestionably (IMHO) the best betting card of the meet as I\'ll make my 10th live appearance at the BBQ patio.
I\'m pumped up for a major score today with opinions on a few price horses. I\'m sure a couple of hours of conversation with Julian yesterday had nothing to do with it! Quite an interesting man who was there at the beginning of the sheet invasion when there were only 15-20 users of brand R at the time. In addition the one and only time before (2009) that I met and chatted with him he gave out a $ 50.00 horse; I left the track over 30k to the good 2 days before my son\'s first college tuition payment was due. If that\'s not good karma I don\'t know what is as my son will be home again next week passing the hat!
Race 2:
Starter is an 0 for 11 maiden who has run the same number in 5 of those races; only one horse in the race has run a point faster and that was in the mud. Other than the Dutrow horse who makes only his 2nd start, first on dirt there is no overwhelming reason why any other horse will run faster than a number he has already run multiple times. Yes he\'s giving away almost a point in weight to most of the field but the trainer has a nice stat with turn backs and the odds will be correct. A win bet and exacta play with In Speight Of It All.
To mjellish my persoanl mentor in structuring horizontial plays; I will have an All / Starter/ All pick 3 series as well as the obvious
As many of you know almost all, even the bad ones will run a breakout race at sometime during their 3 or 4 year old season. Why not today at 20/1 hopefully for Starter. A theory I\'ve discussed before with TGAB who referred to it as slinging poop against the wall and hoping it sticks. He is not totally incorrect and I would not be tossing at 5/1 but at 20/1 I\'ll sling a little.
Race 8:
Dancing To Town is rested, moving forward and will be on the engine at 20/1 ML on the speed friendly inner course; I wish this was the start of the pick 4.
90\'s and very humid today requiring a few trips to the beer garden.
I\'m hoping the T-storms hold off until after the races tomorrow.
Good luck,
Frank D.
Thanks for the note on Starter, Frank. Some notes I have for the late pik 4:
Rac 9) For me a two horse race - Agave is obvious, but I also lean toward Judy the Beauty. If any scratch, I\'ll add Jamaican.
Race 10) For whatever reason, I can\'t come around to Ron the Greek (much like I have never bet on Mucho Macho Man - not sure why), but I do like Hymn Book especially when JV rides for Shug, Endorsement and Rule. The two former on their pedigree and figs in G1 races. Endorsement has never run a G1, but @ 20:1 (an agent change for Rosario that does have significance) I\'m in. 3 horse.
Race 11) Here\'s where it can get tricky for me as I have to include a longshot with connections that killed me in last week\'s pik 4 on Saturday...that is of course, Ron Moquett and Our Dark Knight. Dominus would be single for me if I had too many in the other legs...TP off layoff with a Graded stakes vet at age 4. Star Horbor is in as the lone lead I think. Other than those 3, I add Junebugred. Now, JBR was a very highly thought of 3YO her in HOt Springs last winter and had a minor injury they got through. Steve HObby would not push up in class off layoff if he din\'t think a lot of his chances (at least for 2nd at 6:1. Bernie has good figs, but in clmrs - not for me. 4 horses.
Race 12) The weird ending. We have a jumper from James Day - he\'s a bit of an oddball and was banished from ARL some years back I think Micelli is not good off claim, and Bellamy Road (#1) is terrible with turf runners. Ahh, but look who Ramon goes up for....our man longshot Moquett! Friends Lake is not a great turf sire, but why does this attract Dominquez? Thought highly enough to run in AR Derby last year...time off, two races lately with no fanfare, now gets the top jock. I like # 5 the best - Love Man who strikes me as the most consistent and likely winner @ 5:1. 3 horses.
$36 for the 50 cent. Good luck, see you Labor Day weekend.