Pretty weak rendition. Doesnt mean it is a good betting race just not a Star laden field. Trickmeister at 15-1 is interesting. Flat Out.second back will have some.pace up front.
No Quality Roads, St Liams or Commentators in here. Neg 1 will take it.....
Silver, respectfully disagree.
Rule: Multiple Graded stakes winner.
Hunter\'s Bay: Multiple Graded stakes winner.
Caixa Electronica: Graded stakes winner.
Endorsement: Multiple Graded stakes winner
Trickmeister: Multiple stakes winner.
Ron the Greek: Multiple Grade 1 stakes winner.
Flat Out: Grade 1 stakes winner, multiple graded stakes winner.
Hymn Book: Grade 1 stakes winner.
Fort Larned: Multiple Graded stakes winner.
Seven of the nine entered have won graded stakes in 2012.
ML fave looks weak and lots of ???? around the ones that have run fast. IMO decent chance Silver\'s right about the neg 1 taking this.
Hunters Bay at 20-1 ML looks quite interesting to me...
Patience may have paid off with this one. Finally broke through the established top when stretched out to 10 furlongs in last. Thoro-pattern says 32% chance new top FWIW. Appears to be dirt-poly neutral. Inside post & low weight a plus, as well as the cutback given the modest chance of a pace meltdown. I don\'t see much to knock but I really don\'t expect 20-1 either; I could be delusional but it seems to me that when a Stronach horse is live, usually cash comes down from somewhere. Still, I\'m a buyer as low as 10-1 in this field. Also looking forward to see Emma-Jayne ride in NY & doubt she\'ll back down if this comes down to a riders race. I see her as a toughie and a plus here that will do what it takes to win(i.e., stay on the @#$%ing rail for @#$%s sake)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYbVHvuUsIo (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYbVHvuUsIo)
too funny... no hesitation to push Gary Stevens off the cliff
.
I think this is a fascinating race. I categorize it as a lesser of dummies race. Mr. Pletchers challenge is how to beat RTG since he can\'t run away on the lead with Rule. So he enters CE (with sprinter quickness) to absolutely guarantees a suicidal pace. The meltdown is most certain anyway with two have to lead types and a couple more want to lead if they can.
So the first 80% of the race is for the flame out speedsters and they are good ones but hey you just Kain\'t fit five horses into the lead position. ( They\'ll Probably set a track record for a mile)
So all Joe B (Rule) needs to do is gallop along just fast enough to stay ahead of RTG & Flat Out (CAN HE DO THAT?) while weaving through staggering burning pace casualties down the home stretch. To key a Rule/RTG Hymm Book/RTG Hymn Book trifecta.
More importantly another G1 ($$$) win for Mr Pletchers clients. Beating several horses Rule wouln\'t beat in a match race.
Oh. Hunters Bay, as much as I like Ms. Emma Jane is she smart enough to let the speed run off out of sight. No problem getting the rail it will be there for her
between the crazies and the contenders. Maybe 4th to make a good super.
Or one of the speedballs could freak, run a -5 set a track record an go down in history with the likes of Kelso, Easy Goer, Alydar, Lady\'s Secret and Invasor! To name a few of so many really cool past winners.
I\'m no Rule fan, but it is no secret that Pletcher gets the wins.
Whatever happens it will be historic and entertaining.
Handicapping this late the night before can cause delusions.
How else does Pletcher win? CE is 2/2 at the distance and a good price!
Then again Mr Mott is ... as smart as any and Rosie would make for the best pictire in the winners circle. In races like this some times one must go outside the nine dots.
I\'ll keep it simple and consider using the two fastest horses on TG figs, Caixa and Flat Out. Both are getting a couple of pounds from Hymn Book and Ron the Greek. It could be argued Caixa is better this year than last with three neg. 2 1/2\'s with that last paired top coming over 3 months ago. Nice inside post with good stalking speed should result in saving ground. As I write this I wonder if Flat Out has some issues that may be catching up to him. Done after three races as an early 3 year old, dosen\'t get back to the races until December as a 4yo then disappears again until late May. Why the time off from mid February until July? Many folks are going to excuse the last effort which may hurt the price-I may not. I\'ll want at least 5-1 to be interested.
Nice going Pletcher!
Of course I saved with a show bet on Called To Serve @ Mountaineer.
Dont worry about it. At least you posted an Analysis. Looked at Fort Larned before the race and gave him every reason why with THREE 108 Beyers that he wasnt gonna Win. Looked at him after the race and couldnt understand why I wouldnt bet a horse with THREE 108 Beyers this year and another good price wasnt my play.
Ian Wilkes got no pace to run into last Sat with Neck amd Neck but sent out a ready horse. He sent out another today. And got his Grade One.
Is this his first?? If so congrats.
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Dont worry about it. At least you posted an
> Analysis. Looked at Fort Larned before the race
> and gave him every reason why with THREE 108
> Beyers this he wasnt gonna Won. Looked at him
> after.the race and couldnt understand why I
> wpuldnt bet a horse with THREE 108 Beyers this
> year and another good price wasnt my.play.
>
> Ian Wilkes got no pace to run into last Sat with
> Neck amd Neck but sent out a ready horse. He sent
> out another today. And got his Grade One.
>
> Is this his first?? If so congrats.
Was an overlay. Not a grotesque one, but an overlay. Jock helped, in that regard. A hit tip to Wilkes, who I\'ve always liked.