Shoild gallop here. But why is he here? 2YO Champ running in the corn fields of Iowa. Has passed on more races this year anyone you can imagine
Race does ZILCH for Stud Value. Die his coat red and he continues to duck serious competition....
Can\'t think of any other race around that would improve his stud value, if he were to win it -- he\'s a nice miler, and that\'s about it. He might be worth $15 or $20K at stud right now. Finicky market at the moment.
Not sure about the \"ducking\" claim...lots of trainers pick spots carefully, and if you mean the Met Mile, remember that the Ky. Derby has knocked the stuffing out of quite a few horses, in a manner that far exceeds an ordinary race; some horses are never the same again. We don\'t really know what kind of shape Hansen was in after the Derby.
The money for 1st place last night was adequate. Nothing wrong with $150K for a public workout, right? Smart horsemen had better keep scooping up slots-supplemented purses while it\'s still being offered -- from what I could tell, the amount wagered on the Iowa Derby didn\'t even cover the purse money being offered. That won\'t last.
Rick he left town in South Florida after an.initial.race drubbing and ran on the Inner Dirt at Aqeduct in the Gotham. I guess the FOY was not as important.of a race as the one they chose.
Committed to the Wood then.did an about face and went Synthetic in the Blue Grass. Lots of horses have run worse in the Derby than he did, no disgrace there. But we are off the Triple Crown Trail....fine....and we are pointing for the Woody Stephens.
Wait we are skipping that race and wouldnt consider the One Turn Dwyer at $200K because the $250K Iowa Derby ia more prestige.
$15-$20K Stud Fee??? Based on what so far?? That lone BC Juvy win or maybe I needed to throw in those two Turfway Wins from last year....This is NOT a good resume!!
But the horse is pretty....
Silver Charm Wrote:
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> $15-$20K Stud Fee??? Based on what so far?? That
> lone BC Juvy win or maybe I needed to throw in
> those two Turfway Wins from last year....This is
> NOT a good resume!!
>
> But the horse is pretty....
You are *really* sour on this horse, aren\'t you?
8 starts, 5 wins, 2 places...multiple graded stakes winner...almost $1.8 million in earnings...
What does a horse have to do to impress you, I wonder? Are there really that many horses around with \"not good\" resumes like Hansen\'s? Wow.
skipped the FOY because he spiked a fever after the gotham and missed a week or two of training, they chose the gotham because it was the next available race.
skipped the wood because he lost a lot of weight and wasn\'t eating after the gotham. they chose the bluegrass because it was the next available race and didn\'t involve shipping (they thought the weight loss might have been due to a bad reaction to shipping).
skipped the woody stevens because hansen got sick and had a depleted red blood cell count--which can be serious cause for alarm. chose the iowa, because it was an easier ship than the dwyer, it was supposed to be cooler temp wise than NY (and it was), and because they wanted to get a win (crazy i know right?)--much like bob baffert pointing horses like concord point and prayer for relief to the iowa in past years.
any horse that runs 1.42.01 in a hand ride, winning by ten, while giving the field 6-7 lbs, ran a solid race regardless of the crappiness of the competition.
hansen will definitely get $10-20,000 at stud his first year, unless there is some sort of implosion before he retiers--he\'s got everything breeders want--speed, precocity, confirmation, and solid record at two turns--and that he\'s pretty doesn\'t hurt either. and what he gets after his get starts running will depend on how they do, not on his record--tapit gets a pretty penny because he consistently throws winners, not because he won the wood, ran 9th in the KY and PA derbies and 6th in the Fl derby...
You own a mare and for $15-$20K as a Stallion you have a choice:
Shakleford
Calebs Posse
Honor and Serve
Jackson Bend
Bodemeister
Creative Cause
Paynter
Union Rags
Gemoligist
Or
Hansen
All 9 above have much better resumes and figures....
Silver Charm Wrote:
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> You own a mare and for $15-$20K as a Stallion you
> have a choice:
>
> Shakleford
> Calebs Posse
> Honor and Serve
> Jackson Bend
> Bodemeister
> Creative Cause
> Paynter
> Union Rags
> Gemoligist
> Or
> Hansen
>
> All 9 above have much better resumes and
> figures....
The other fellow decimated your \"ducking\" argument, so you come back with this?
Sure, a couple of those are \"better\" than Hansen, depending on what you are hoping for with your mating...but throwing Bodemeister and Paynter in there is just you trying to agitate those of us that happen to think Hansen is a pretty damn good horse.
I\'m not biting. Off to the Naperville Ribfest, headliner is \"...a little ol\' band from Texas\". Should be nutZZ tonight!
Hansen has zero on the female side of the pedigree and that will lower his stud fee significantly.He\'s no 20k stallion.
His highest use right now is to scoop big 3yo restricted purses like the Iowa Derby.
Ill-bred Wrote:
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> Hansen has zero on the female side of the pedigree...
Breeders look at far more than just \"ma & pa\".
In the first four dam side generations: Storm Cat, Private Account,
Raise A Native, Temperence Hill.
That\'s a wee bit more than \"zero\", don\'t you think?
If you go back 2 generations you will find big sire names in every pedigree. And 2 of those 4 are viewed as negatives commercially. What this horse has is an Eclipse award, but beyond that he has a ceiling-- unless he wins the Travers, a BC race on dirt or another Eclipse he\'s not that commercial.
TGJB Wrote:
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> If you go back 2 generations you will find big
> sire names in every pedigree. And 2 of those 4 are
> viewed as negatives commercially.
I was merely refuting the idea that Hansen has \"zero\"
pedigree on the dam side.
> What this horse has is an Eclipse award, but beyond that
> he has a ceiling-- unless he wins the Travers, a BC race
> on dirt or another Eclipse he\'s not that commercial.
You meant *another* BC race on dirt, I\'m sure.
I wouldn\'t run him in the Travers, but if he\'s healthy, an
attempt at the BC Dirt Mile seems like a no-brainer.
I also wish the connections would try him on turf -- his
grass breeding is decent enough to at least see whether
he takes to it.
Don\'t understand why everyone seems to want to write this
horse off. I surely wouldn\'t kick him out of my barn...if
I had a barn.
The BC win is baked into the Eclipse, and we\'re talking about a stud career, not about him as a racehorse. \"Grass horse\" is the kiss of death in today\'s market-- one reason why the Euros are better on turf. They breed for it, we don\'t.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The BC win is baked into the Eclipse, and we\'re
> talking about a stud career, not about him as a
> racehorse. \"Grass horse\" is the kiss of death in
> today\'s market-- one reason why the Euros are
> better on turf. They breed for it, we don\'t.
Except Hansen wouldn\'t be just a \"grass horse\" if
he did well on that surface.
How many stallions are around that have performed
at a reasonably high level on dirt, syn, AND grass?
(Never mind Hansen\'s precociousness and brilliance,
which of course no one in the U.S. wants to breed to
anymore.)
I\'ll tell you what, we\'ll see what he stands for if he doesn\'t do one of the things I mentioned. There are a few people who read/post here that would have a professional level opinion, but my guess would be around 15k. Right now Bodemeister is more commercial, which is why Win Star grabbed him.
Keep in mind this is not an opinion of what kind of sire he\'ll be, just how commercial.
Okay, just talked to a top Ky farm manager.
1-- The top offer from Ky for IHA was 3M (the Japanese paid much more). At 3M, he would have stood for 12.5-15k
2-- He says if Hansen retired today he would stand for 7.5-10k.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Okay, just talked to a top Ky farm manager.
>
> 1-- The top offer from Ky for IHA was 3M (the
> Japanese paid much more). At 3M, he would have
> stood for 12.5-15k
>
> 2-- He says if Hansen retired today he would stand
> for 7.5-10k.
My source says the ky offer was 6 million and that he sold to the japs for twice that.
I do agree that Hansen at best would be a 10 k sire. Doesn\'t have the pedigree of trapp shot who is from same sire line and a much stronger bottom side
Bodemeister will be very well received but probably over oriced
Hanson is going NEXT in the West Virginia Derby for $750K. No Haskell or Jim Dandy at Saratoga which seems to confirm the case that these guys are better off going for these restricted Big Purse 3YO races because the others are either: A) Not going to do much for his overall stud fee or B) Not winnable....or both!!
Iowa Derby for $250K
West Va Derby $750K
Total Purses $1.0M
But those two do not equal one Grade 1 $1.0M Travers and we know that. And considering the competition the hrse would face so do they.
Look I am not down on the horse and now seeing the Stud Economics this makes some sense what they are doing. These guys are having some fun. The partnership will stand the horse themselves and maybe have a decent book of ok mares. Nothing great but ok enough. And if the Kentucky Stud Gig doesnt work out there is always those emerging markets of Iowa and West Virginia to fall back on.
As an athlete sometimes you want to step up and find out how good you are or can be. And try it more than once. Lets hope this athlete gets his chances before the Bus Tour comes to an end.....
well, except for shack, union rags, and bode, and bode\'s actually questionable since he\'s only won 2 races and didn\'t race as a 2 year old, (seconds don\'t count for sh!t in breeding), none of these horse has or had a better record than hansen at the same point in their career.
shack\'s preakness is the most valuable 3 yo race for the shed. but i\'d be shocked f he goes above $15000
union rags value mostly comes from the fact that dixie union is dead and his wins at saratoga last year. his belemont isn\'t worth as much in the breeding shed first year out as hansen\'s juvenile win.
if i wanted a derby winner, i sure as heck wouldn\'t choose rags to get me there--at best he\'s a sport, since his full brother is a pure sprinter.
caleb\'s posse\'s only claim to fame this time last year was the ohio derby
jackson bend won\'t command anything in the shed, which is why he\'s still racing at 5--he was a disappointing 3 yo.
gemologist has only the wood--which has no value in the shed, unless you are an over-hyped esky. the juvenile trumps the wood in shed.
to honor and serve won\'t command anything either, he was a poor 3 year old, and is an inconsistent 4 year old.
paynter has nothing yet, and creative cause has nothing of value yet,
but to answer your question, i\'d love to breed to shack, but not becuase of his results, because he is a very rare double dr. fager (both top and bottom)--the good dr. is hard to come by.
personally, i could care less what you think about hansen\'s merits, he isn\'t my horse--but the very fact that he is the best male get of one the most sought after sires, ensures he\'ll start off at a healthy price.
shack, the best placed outside of hansen, union rags, and bode of the horse\'s on you list, is unlikely to top his sire\'s price of $12,500.
to honor and serve, caleb\'s posse, and jackson bend are unlikely to top $7500.
for the 3 year old\'s it\'s too soon--but the only ones out you list likely to match or top hansen are union rags and bode, but bode won\'t do it unless he starts winning some. breeders don\'t like horses that couldn\'t race at two..
i\'m not questioning your veracity or your breeders knowledge but this seems low to me--unless the market is way worse than i think it is--a huge chunk of hansen\'s value comes from the fact that his sire demands $125,000 a pop, and is booked well in advance (2012 was fully booked before march).
hansen\'s half brother concord point gets $7500, and hansen\'s resume is far better than concord point\'s, i\'d be shocked if they don\'t stand hansen initially for $25,000--he\'ll attract many who want tapit but can\'t afford or get access to him
as for hansen\'s dam--before hansen, she wasn\'t worth anything--but she has a decent allowance horse and a multiple black type million in her first two foals--look at mining my own, to see how fast a blacktype winner improves a previously worthless mare.
but anyway, hasnen will get whatever he gets...but unless he gets injured his connections plan to run him next year, so it will be awhile before we find out who\'s guess was the best guess.
cheers
sigh...the purse for any horse entering the west va derby with grade one win is $1 million dollars.
and hansen is pointed toward the travers--both maker and the owner have said this repeatedly and recently.
if you\'re going rail, at least get your facts right
How is this thread helping us handicap and win?
basket7777 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> How is this thread helping us handicap and win?
Pick one:
1. Breeding discussions can help your handicapping down
the line, or even today. Not everything in horse racing
is \"figures\". We can\'t afford linear thinking in this
game, IMO.
2. You asked the same question in the Frankel thread;
do YOU have anything to contribute that will help us
\"handicap and win\"? Step up...or ask for a refund of
your forum membership fees.
If there is one thing that fascinates me about internet
forums, it\'s posters who complain about forum content but
never have anything significant to contribute.
\"hansen\'s half brother concord point gets $7500, and hansen\'s resume is far better than concord point\'s, i\'d be shocked if they don\'t stand hansen initially for $25,000--he\'ll attract many who want tapit but can\'t afford or get access to him\"
Kek,
Unless Hansen does substantailly more at the top level, there is little chance he\'ll initially stand for $25k. I\'ll bet on it.
Mike
basket7777 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> How is this thread helping us handicap and win?
They have a link titled: \"Introduction, Samples and Tutorials\".
If you want to learn that badly, click the link and read up on all things handicapping until your cup runneth over. There\'s plenty.
There are many bright people around here that speak on a variety of subjects. The vast majority of people enjoy the give and take.
If you don\'t like the other subjects, just ignore them. When you find a subject discussing a race or horse, and there are several, then take from them what you want.
Lastly, have a Happy 4th of July. Its a day of celebration.
Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Breeders look at far more than just \"ma & pa\".
>
> In the first four dam side generations: Storm Cat,
> Private Account,
> Raise A Native, Temperence Hill.
>
> That\'s a wee bit more than \"zero\", don\'t you
> think?
Negative.
You are talking sires and broodmare sires, not female family.
Hansen is the only stakes horse of any type under his first four dams.
Genetically, that\'s a big concern.
Keep in mind Tapit has the ability to move cheap mares way way up.
Wow
How poopie are you two. I\'m here to read learn ect. People arguing about if a horses sperm is worth 7500 or 25000 is no value at all but to those who think they know it all.
Reading both your post I am sure both of you think you do. Your correct about the internet it brought you to us which is worst than getting taken down on a 15-1 shot.
Whats your real name? Where do you sit most of the time? I\'m at the meadowlands
it would be quite a pleasur to get to meet you. however i think you might think different afterwards.
basket7777 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Wow
>
> How poopie are you two. I\'m here to read learn
> ect. People arguing about if a horses sperm is
> worth 7500 or 25000 is no value at all but to
> those who think they know it all.
>
> Reading both your post I am sure both of you think
> you do. Your correct about the internet it
> brought you to us which is worst than getting
> taken down on a 15-1 shot.
Never made a comment about a sire\'s worth.
>
> Whats your real name?
My name is known to everyone here. Look it up under my preferences.
> Where do you sit most of
> the time? I\'m at the meadowlands
I live on the West Coast, Bay Area specifically.
Most of the time I sit on the couch, with an occasional trip to Santa Anita.
>
> it would be quite a pleasur to get to meet you.
> however i think you might think different
> afterwards.
I\'ve met several people from this community. One was nice enough to pick me up at a condo on the Big Island and play a round of golf with him. He took care of the green fees. I doubt he would have done that if he thought i was a prick. Hung out with another at the Breeders\' Cup. Neither person seemed to be having a bad time in my company.
Wow, and you talk about others and the internet. Here it is, the 4th of July with a great day of racing, and you want to take me behind the gym and beat me up. Ok.
Dude, pour yourself a cocktail and relax. Have a nice day.
how will this help again? please explain? how is this a handicap tool for us ?
please explain this again you just cyber babble to hear youreself and how good you are
explain again how this helps us with the sheets?
oh so you know I was the one who got them to start doing charlestown. I was there with King T. Leatherberry if you dont know one of the first and foremost users of the number to bet and claim.
He taught me and i still want to learn. Come as I said to the meadowlands sit near me and see what happens to the people around when I say i like a house. They might only be 3 or 4 a week but watch what happens. It speaks volumes to both the sheets and there wallets.
cyberdick
That\'s enough of the threats. You don\'t like his posts, don\'t read them.
How about if we lined up those 10 horses I mentioned and ran them in a One Turn Mile at weight for age. Where would Hansen finish then? Maybe beat a couple?
So they say they are going to run in the travers. Well they said they going to Winter and race in Florida, (they didnt) run in the Wood (they didnt) run in the Preakness (they didnt) run in the Woody Stephens (they didnt) but have this Traveling Bus Tour thing thru the Midwest going.
While they are at it maybe they need to add a few more characters to the show. As Dr Hansen walks around in his Bermuda Shorts signing autographs maybe they should add a Juggler, Sword Swallower, Fire Breather, Man on Stilts, Belly Dancer, Pshycic, Palm Reader, then trot out the Great White Hope and let him roll around out there at .10 on the dollar. And after Hansen wins then Free Corn Dogs on the House. Pack\'em all back on the Bus and off to the next town.
Doesnt exactly sound like Royal Ascot or Team Aga Kahn but its a Great Show and more of what racing needs.....And btw I am not down on the horse. The one time they really gave this athlete a real shot, in the BC Juvenile, he laid down on his white belly and gave it all he had down the stretch under a perfect ride by Ramon. So give him a couple more chances. He might surprise some people. Including me.....
your correct
buying the sheets 4-6 times a week maybe at the least 4 sets on those days doen\'t give me any right to express my opionon on thses forum.
The only things that counts is how i spend my money
and as of today the 10,000 or so a year i spent on thorographs will disapear from your wallet
thanks for at the very least letting me spend my money with zero feedback
after all its all about you
basket7777 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> your correct
>
> buying the sheets 4-6 times a week maybe at the
> least 4 sets on those days doen\'t give me any
> right to express my opionon on thses forum.
>
> The only things that counts is how i spend my
> money
>
> and as of today the 10,000 or so a year i spent on
> thorographs will disapear from your wallet
>
> thanks for at the very least letting me spend my
> money with zero feedback
>
> after all its all about you
What on earth makes you so hostile?? Seriously.
I\'ve been admonished plenty by JB, and I can at least look back and realize that I was out of line, followed by an apology. This man lets us go a long way before he finally says enough.
Geezus, a national holiday and today is the day you decide to be belligerent and disrespectful.
Spending money doesn\'t give anybody the right to be rude.
Just let it go sir.
Feedback and threats are two different things. You can express all the opinions you want, but you can\'t buy enough sheets to get to threaten people here. Period.
Don\'t know what the weather is like in the Bay area, but it\'s been damn hot around here and tempers are short. Guy was killed in a road rage deal a few days ago-- there were an axe and a knife involved.
It was announced that Hansen will stand for 12.5k