Embarassing performance in the stretch. Most overrated jockey on the planet.
He rode Paynter like he was on Bodemeister. And even still, he might have won had he not allowed Union Rags to pass on the rail.
Having watched the replay a time or two it is mindbobbling he let it open as easily as he did. Other than waiting JV just got what he needed and came on thro to win by a head. Really almost inexcusable as easy as he let him do it
Mike already on record admitting the mistake of opening up the rail.
This was the worst Belmont field I have ever seen. A glorified overnight stakes race. They should have reduced the purse after the scratch of IHA to $100,000. That\'s all this field was worth.............
sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Embarassing performance in the stretch. Most
> overrated jockey on the planet.
He isn\'t the most overrated. I don\'t think 15 BC winners - which by the way Mr Conspiracy Theorist, is more than anyone else - makes you overrated.
He made a tactical error, something he admitted. I\'m sure Shoemaker never made a mistake.
You are a real piece of work.
Interesting to hear Johnny V say he was looking for Mike to go.to his pateneted left hand down the lane on a front runner. I am sure hoping he would drift from the whip as fatigue was setting in. Sure enough he got it.
BTW-they must not have a Big Screen in the Belmont Infield because at Pimlico Mike looked left twice at the one there. The last time for more than an eye flash. Maybe if the same sitiation here he at least.makes it tight on Union Rag. But here he had two full paths to run thru....UGH!!
Tried to rouse Paynter going left handed late causing drift, won a zillion times doing that. Wonder if he knew UR was down in there.Perfect tactical ride sending to clear and then controlling while slowing it down.
Shuts the rail,he wins and is credited with great ride....but!
Deleted.
That cost me a ton. I had a huge tri Paynter/few contenders/4. I broke even on the race on a saver bet, but i would have made a nice hit if Mikey had did what he was supposed to do.
Same here plastic. What a shame. California has the best horses and the most harebrained jockeys. Go figure.
Lots of sour grapes on this board after the race. Maybe Vito from the other board was right about this board.
MO,
You must be a very very young man if this was the worst Belmont field you have seen. Union Rags is a multiple stakes winner and was both the winter book derby favorite and the overwhelming Derby favorite until March 31st or so. You forgot about Commendable, Ruler on Ice, D\'Tara, Jazil, etc.etc.
TGJB,
Will go on record now that you are wrong about Union Rags being a \'bet against\' in his next two races. Yeah, his figure won\'t be great for today. But that is a one-dimensional analysis that is way short in this case of being enough to measure this horse. First off, off the last two races/trips, where he ran maybe 1/16th of a mile in the Florida DErby and similar in the Kentucky Derby, he was likely SHORT of being fit to run a 1 1/2. He also was likely running a distance that is beyond what he wants to run. Yes, I know none of our horses are bred to run 1 1/2 miles on dirt, but as many people have said, Dixie Union was worse than most. He also is a horse that has proven he does NOT want to be on the rail, despite it being the shortest distance between two points. I would bet pretty good money the instructions from Matz today were NOT to keep this big gangly guy pinned down on the inside all race. He had no chance to get him off. The ground he saved may have been offset by the fact that the rail is not the spot this horse wants to be in.
Bottom line is that I am with Michael D that this horse crashes through the 2 or whatever figure he gets this summer. He is a very very good horse and will prove that the balance of the year IMO.
Though I agree UR was not at his best trip (was that the best trip for any of them?), he was set up for a peak performance. He has been in constant training for months towards producing a peak effort in the spring, and didn\'t have to deal with reacting after a peak effort, unlike Paynter (especially since that one being lightly raced).
Expecting a \"0\" player or two come Travers time, unclear which Grade 1 that day he would have a better chance of winning.
*IF* Smith had not let Rags through, this board would be up in arms about the terrible ride Johnny V gave him by not getting him outside to run down the stretch.
Holybull,
I would agree with you. Having a lot of money riding with Union Rags I can only tell you that during the race i was NOT happy with where Johnny V had the horse. Yes, Paynter drifted and Smith hit him left-handed, opening up a hole to let Johnny V go through, but going 1 1/2 on dirt, and believing you are on the best horse, you are not supposed to be waiting for a hole in deep stretch, especially when only 3 horses are even on the screen.
Slewzapper,
Agreed, that by Travers time, multiple horses will be running in the 0 to negative 2 range. But no doubt that barring injury, Union Rags will be looking at Travers, not King\'s Bishop. And he will be runing negative numbers by then. I will have no problem betting that. As Miff said in a different post, judging ability for 3 year old\'s based on figs they run in 1 1/2 mile races is not the way to go.
Jim
Jimbo wrote:
\"[UR] also is a horse that has proven he does NOT want to be on the rail,\"
It may well be the case that he doesn\'t like being on the rail. But I\'m wondering whether there is any evidence that spending most of the race on the rail hurts his performance in any way. Is there any evidence for this on figures?
Rich,
If there is, I don\'t have it.
Like many on this board, I have watched a lot of races in my lifetime and there are horses that appear to be less comfortable when runnning down inside and I believe \"not coincidentally\", don\'t run as well. Quality Road was another big strapping colt that needed to be outside.
Street Sense, on the other hand, seemed to flourish cutting the corner, down on the inside (and yes, I know having Borel on him didn\'t hurt with the propensity to be down inside).
Figures are ONE part of the game and ONE tool in handicapping. We all have to make judgments outside the figures before we bet and it isn\'t always scientific. I believe and will bet that Union Rags is a much faster horse than he showed yesterday. How many \"fast figures\" have we seen in the last few years in the Belmont? Not many. 1 1/2 on dirt is not something we breed for, nor train for. It is no accident we get aberrational results in the Belmont, so much so that betting on every Belmont horse over the last x number of years resulted in a flat bet profit (don\'t have the quote from Beyer handy on that).
Good luck,
Jim
I think Johnny V knew exactly how much horse he had, and knew that, at that point with a furlong left or so, if he used UR remaining energy to change direction and move out to the center of the track, that would be the \"one move\" his horse could make at that point - UR wouldn\'t necessarily have enough energy left to also go past Paynter, too.
Instead JV chose to sit on the rail and wait (hope) for the opening, instead using his horses\' only energy burst to accellerate for a couple strides - just enough to barely win.
Sight,
Johnny V handicapped Mike Smith. Once pinned inside he was waiting for Mike Smith to go to his patented strong left hand, sure enough he did.No other option at that point.
Mike
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sight,
>
> Johnny V handicapped Mike Smith. Once pinned
> inside he was waiting for Mike Smith to go to his
> patented strong left hand, sure enough he did.No
> other option at that point.
>
>
> Mike
When Smith hit him left handed, UR was already in the hole and had enough room. Watch the replay.
Paul,
Agree, saw that. Only repeating what Johnny V said about the stretch run.
Mike
Exactly. JV won that round.
Frankly, I was surprised UR still had enough run to fit through there.
Jimbo-- you and I are going to have to remember to revisit this before the Jim Dandy or Haskell, whichever one UR goes in. I\'ll probably do it for ROTW.
Not sour grapes on my part unless you consider the fact that for the first time in at least a decade I put some serious work into playing a P6, and I kept coming up with \"hit the all button\", thus making the ticket too expensive. So I settled on what I thought were the 2 best betting races in the sequence, and got drubbed there....:)
I had a pretty surreal experience after the Belmont this year. I got to the track around 2:30pm and was having a pretty good day at the windows and just a really fun day overall. (loved the jockey-ettes parading around the grounds giving away IHA posters) I had a 3,9 exacta box (along with other tickets) on the Belmont. I loved Paynter, but I just didn\'t want to watch Mike Smith get run down again at the wire and have nothing on it - so I boxed it. Somehow, I managed to leave UR off my pick 4 ticket and was alive to the Belmont. Genius.
Sure enough, deja vu. After the race, I spent 20 minutes talking to a friend about how badly I felt for Mike Smith (the subject of this string, notwithstanding). I stayed til the 13th and enjoyed the sunset. So I head back to my former hometown with friends and go to one of the local bars that has been there since the beginning of time. I had a few beers at the bar which was relatively crowded and I turned to go to the bathroom and literally run into Mike Smith! It was truly bizarre and so random.
I introduced myself and told him how badly I felt for him and he was so cool and casual, I almost couldn\'t believe it was him. I kept thinking I just watched this guy lose the 3rd TC race of the season in almost identical fashion 3 hours ago. I spent almost a half an hour speaking with him about the TC series, the craziness of being run down 3 times on 2 different Baffert horses. I\'m not the type of person to question a professional (a) when I don\'t know enough to question and (b) when I think the person is down. I\'m sure some of you guys would have had a lot better questions to ask him. I think he was concerned about letting the 2 horse go by him on the far turn and stepped on the gas maybe more than he wanted. Maybe UR doesn\'t get the chance to go by if that doesn\'t happen. I don\'t know and I don\'t know enough to speculate. I do know enough to say he was a total gentleman, class act and a downright great guy. He wasn\'t drunk or even mildly inebriated. He certainly didn\'t have sour grapes and was gracious in defeat paying a lot of respect to both UR and IHA. It turns out he was there by himself, he was wearing a suit and only a few other people recognized him. When we were done talking - mostly because I REALLY had to go to the bathroom, he told me was leaving and walking back to his hotel - and out the door he went and started walking toward the hotel. This was at Leo\'s in Garden City for anyone familiar with the area. Todd Pletcher also has a house in town. It certainly was a great experience. This was a Belmont I certainly won\'t forget.
Beginner Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I had a pretty surreal experience after the
> Belmont this year. I got to the track around
> 2:30pm and was having a pretty good day at the
> windows and just a really fun day overall. (loved
> the jockey-ettes parading around the grounds
> giving away IHA posters) I had a 3,9 exacta box
> (along with other tickets) on the Belmont. I loved
> Paynter, but I just didn\'t want to watch Mike
> Smith get run down again at the wire and have
> nothing on it - so I boxed it. Somehow, I managed
> to leave UR off my pick 4 ticket and was alive to
> the Belmont. Genius.
>
> Sure enough, deja vu. After the race, I spent 20
> minutes talking to a friend about how badly I felt
> for Mike Smith (the subject of this string,
> notwithstanding). I stayed til the 13th and
> enjoyed the sunset. So I head back to my former
> hometown with friends and go to one of the local
> bars that has been there since the beginning of
> time. I had a few beers at the bar which was
> relatively crowded and I turned to go to the
> bathroom and literally run into Mike Smith! It was
> truly bizarre and so random.
>
> I introduced myself and told him how badly I felt
> for him and he was so cool and casual, I almost
> couldn\'t believe it was him. I kept thinking I
> just watched this guy lose the 3rd TC race of the
> season in almost identical fashion 3 hours ago. I
> spent almost a half an hour speaking with him
> about the TC series, the craziness of being run
> down 3 times on 2 different Baffert horses. I\'m
> not the type of person to question a professional
> (a) when I don\'t know enough to question and (b)
> when I think the person is down. I\'m sure some of
> you guys would have had a lot better questions to
> ask him. I think he was concerned about letting
> the 2 horse go by him on the far turn and stepped
> on the gas maybe more than he wanted. Maybe UR
> doesn\'t get the chance to go by if that doesn\'t
> happen. I don\'t know and I don\'t know enough to
> speculate. I do know enough to say he was a total
> gentleman, class act and a downright great guy. He
> wasn\'t drunk or even mildly inebriated. He
> certainly didn\'t have sour grapes and was gracious
> in defeat paying a lot of respect to both UR and
> IHA. It turns out he was there by himself, he was
> wearing a suit and only a few other people
> recognized him. When we were done talking - mostly
> because I REALLY had to go to the bathroom, he
> told me was leaving and walking back to his hotel
> - and out the door he went and started walking
> toward the hotel. This was at Leo\'s in Garden
> City for anyone familiar with the area. Todd
> Pletcher also has a house in town. It certainly
> was a great experience. This was a Belmont I
> certainly won\'t forget.
What a cool story, that will certainly be a great memory for you.
I\'ve met Mike Smith twice, and he was an absolute gentleman each time. Smalltimer arranged for me to meet him last year on my annual Big Cap trip, and he was very accommodating to us. I also saw him this year after he ran second in the SF Mile here at GG. After he ran 2nd on the chalk Jeranimo, many fans were anxious to meet him, get an autograph, and take a few pictures. He was extremely gracious with his time and a class act.
Congrats on the fine wagering day, despite the P4 snafu. Sounds like you had a fantastic time.
What does being a gentleman have to do with jockey skill relative to his peers? There\'s lots of gentlemen out there, it doesn\'t mean they are the best at their profession. That trait doesn\'t make him a better jockey. Mike Smith is SEVERAL years removed from his prime and is a PISS POOR, Below Average jockey these days. I don\'t have any remarkable encounters with this gentleman that would affect my honest and accurate assessment of his jockey skill.
But P-Dub, Here are the ROI and Win% (last 12 months) of all the jockeys that had mounts in the Belmont Stakes.
Nakatani 2.14 ROI - 18% Win
Alvarado 2.08 ROI - 20% Win
Gutierrez 1.93 ROI - 19% Win
Napravnik 1.88 ROI - 22% Win
LeParoux 1.87 ROI - 22% Win
Lezcano 1.86 ROI - 18% Win
Castellano 1.84 ROI - 21% Win
Desormeaux 1.77 ROI - 15% Win
Velazquez 1.70 ROI - 20% Win
Dominguez 1.69 ROI - 23% Win
Solis 1.53 ROI - 9% Win
Smith 1.12 ROI - 13% Win
That\'s alot of butchered rides there Mike. Someone should stick a fork in the guy, he\'s DONE! He\'s a hell of a gentleman though. Pathetic, disgrace of a jockey, but hell of human being.
One of my most memorable experiences was when Chris McCarron won the Travers about Deputy Commander, nosing out the favored Behrens. It was an emotional week for McCarron as his mother had died a few days earlier. Following the race, we were celebrating with our winnings at a nice Italian restaurant. We looked over at a few tables away and saw Chris with about 10 family members and friend. Three of us wanted to meet him, but our buddy who had bet on Behrens said, I\'d like to ring that little *%$@ neck! So Chris walks by our table and the disgruntled friend kept his cool and said Congrats, Chris. We chatted for about 10 minutes and I will never forget it. I would hope that if Sekrah actually met Mike Smith in person, he would realize the priorities of life and also be a gentleman.
\"That\'s alot of butchered rides there Mike. Someone should stick a fork in the guy, he\'s DONE!\"
Sek,
Many who have watched Mike Smith for years surely know he\'s slowed his pretty brilliant career down. You watched him ride in the TC and conclude he\'s done, fork time? Pretty tough to name any top jock who hasn\'t butchered a few.
Never a big fan of Wide Mikey\'s style but he can still send one, rate one and finish with authority. Precisely what are you watching? You\'re slamming a guy based on current ROI?
Think it\'s clouding your judgement.Not too many outfits that would not use Mike Smith based on his current ability.
Mike
Those are the facts. There is no defending his ROI. For every one \"he can still rate and finish with authority\" there must be a dozen that he blows to achieve that sort of rate.
I\'m using one of the best tools we have to judge a rider, Return on Investment. Everyone else is rating him by personality. And I\'m the one with my judgement clouded? Umm okay.
Sekrah, first off Mikey\'s ride was terrific. Disagree if you must, even point out the post race \"apology\" from Smith himself, but the bottom line is is if his colt doesn\'t drop a shoe at the pole he wins!
Secondly trashing the west coast riders as a group has exactly zero merit. bbb
bellsbendboy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sekrah, first off Mikey\'s ride was terrific.
> Disagree if you must, even point out the post
> race \"apology\" from Smith himself, but the bottom
> line is is if his colt doesn\'t drop a shoe at the
> pole he wins!
>
> Secondly trashing the west coast riders as a group
> has exactly zero merit. bbb
NY/FL/KY has better, deeper jockey colonies than CA. I\'m sure it\'s a debate we could have all night though.
sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> What does being a gentleman have to do with jockey
> skill relative to his peers? There\'s lots of
> gentlemen out there, it doesn\'t mean they are the
> best at their profession. That trait doesn\'t
> make him a better jockey. Mike Smith is SEVERAL
> years removed from his prime and is a PISS POOR,
> Below Average jockey these days. I don\'t have
> any remarkable encounters with this gentleman that
> would affect my honest and accurate assessment of
> his jockey skill.
>
> But P-Dub, Here are the ROI and Win% (last 12
> months) of all the jockeys that had mounts in the
> Belmont Stakes.
>
> Nakatani 2.14 ROI - 18% Win
> Alvarado 2.08 ROI - 20% Win
> Gutierrez 1.93 ROI - 19% Win
> Napravnik 1.88 ROI - 22% Win
> LeParoux 1.87 ROI - 22% Win
> Lezcano 1.86 ROI - 18% Win
> Castellano 1.84 ROI - 21% Win
> Desormeaux 1.77 ROI - 15% Win
> Velazquez 1.70 ROI - 20% Win
> Dominguez 1.69 ROI - 23% Win
> Solis 1.53 ROI - 9% Win
> Smith 1.12 ROI - 13% Win
>
> That\'s alot of butchered rides there Mike.
> Someone should stick a fork in the guy, he\'s DONE!
> He\'s a hell of a gentleman though. Pathetic,
> disgrace of a jockey, but hell of human being.
First of all, I was responding to an encounter someone had with Smith. Nowhere does it say.....\"See, I told you he\'s a great rider, see what a great guy he is??\"
You read far more into stuff than most rational people do, as your latest comment right here illustrates. I was merely talking about an encounter, nothing more, nothing less.
You\'re going to tell me ROI is the most telling stat?? So the tote board is the means we measure rider skill? That has nothing to do with it.
As Miff said, at this stage of his brilliant career...and sorry Sek, it is brilliant....what jockey wouldn\'t have lost a bit. He finished 2nd in each TC race giving superb rides. I guess Paynter losing a shoe had absolutely nothing to do with him bearing out a bit?? His left hind shoe to be precise.
You\'re not a bad handicapper, but you try to come off as an expert on subjects you clearly aren\'t. Race riding and jockey performance to name a few. You throw out a few stats and say...\"See, I told you he sucks.\" The problem with you is that instead of lamenting a perceived poor ride, you go on a tirade screamong he is the worst rider alive and sucks. Our beloved Cube was saying the same thing on the other board.
So you and Cube have the same outlook on a subject. Sorry, but that\'s not the guy you want to be linked with to bolster an opinion.
You\'re pissed because you lost a bet, and you did what most do in that situation....you blame the jockey. He sucks, he\'s done, he should retire.
I\'m sure Drosselmeyer\'s connections were happy he rode their horse last fall. The one that stormed from off the pace to win the BC Classic. Yep, that Smith sure is a bum.
If you want to lament a lost wager, fine. However, launching diatribes against a rider with Smith\'s credentials, a guy that despite losing some skills along the way (pssst, something any professional does as they get older) still can ride at a high level, is uncalled for.
My only point in posting that was that the experience was pretty cool given that it was just a few hours later that he was riding in the Belmont Stakes and came oh so close to winning. I wasn\'t making any judgment about his riding skills good or bad - only that he was gracious and a good guy. Sure, I would have preferred Paynter to win, but probably not nearly as much as Mike Smith would have preferred to win. As I said, I\'m sure the poor guy was wondering how many times he was going to get run down. So I wasn\'t about to ask him how or why he moved a path or so to the outside or judge him on it.
You\'re not a bad handicapper, but you try to come off as an expert on subjects you clearly aren\'t. Race riding and jockey performance to name a few. You throw out a few stats and say...\"See, I told you he sucks.\" The problem with you is that instead of lamenting a perceived poor ride, you go on a tirade screamong he is the worst rider alive and sucks. Our beloved Cube was saying the same thing on the other board.
P-Dub,
Re; your comment on his handicapping
you\'re way too generous and damnit i\'d bet on that.
flighted
And this is what you do.. You find one race that he wins (despite a pathetic record over his last 500 races), and you sarcastically snipe, \"he\'s sure washed up isn\'t it.\"
Smith cannot ride at a high level. Winning one or two stakes races out of a pile doesn\'t meana you can ride at a high level. Jockeys should be judged on their consistancy. When you are consistantly losing (on favorable mounts) over a long period of time, one G1 stakes win doesn\'t erase the fact that you are no good.
That ROI is even more glaring when you consider Drosselmeyer won at $31.60 and is in those numbers. You\'d probably look long and hard to find more than a couple 10-1 shots he\'s won on in the past year.
FI,
You couldn\'t hold my pencil.
Sekrah,
Naturally. You\'re too busy scribbling your conspiracy theories down and then
frantically erasing them because they sound too crazy even for you to believe.
Except for this one.
Flighted
sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> And this is what you do.. You find one race that
> he wins (despite a pathetic record over his last
> 500 races), and you sarcastically snipe, \"he\'s
> sure washed up isn\'t it.\"
I found one that most people saw, it was the biggest race of the year. There are others.
>
> Smith cannot ride at a high level. Winning one or
> two stakes races out of a pile doesn\'t meana you
> can ride at a high level. Jockeys should be
> judged on their consistancy. When you are
> consistantly losing (on favorable mounts) over a
> long period of time, one G1 stakes win doesn\'t
> erase the fact that you are no good.
This is the problem Sek. You want to say he sucks and isn\'t any good. He isn\'t what he used to be, but repeating insults at him is uncalled for. Any reasonable person should agree with that.
>
> That ROI is even more glaring when you consider
> Drosselmeyer won at $31.60 and is in those
> numbers. You\'d probably look long and hard to
> find more than a couple 10-1 shots he\'s won on in
> the past year.
You would probably have to look long and hard to find any 10-1 shot. There are many fine riders in the So Cal colony. You also have no idea on the quality of mounts he gets, or anything else to do with his winning percentage. You toss out a few stats and conclude...\"he sucks.\" If you had bet on Drosselmeyer last fall, you would have told us how awesome you and Smith are.
Enough already. You think he sucks. We get it. Move on.
sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> FI,
>
> You couldn\'t hold my pencil.
Frankly, I don\'t think anyone wants to come close to your pencil.