Warm Hugs opens at 5/2 off the 12-1 Morning Line. Granted that ML was with Tapits Fly entered who is scratched.
Glad I pounced on the Double with Rothko. Now need a good run. McPeek.Steam showed earlier in a cheaper race. Showing again here with the 1 in the Doubles.
Not thrilled that the 9 was 5 lb overweight though
number5858 Wrote:
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> Not thrilled that the 9 was 5 lb overweight though
Comes with the Nakatani package. 117 is about as good as you\'re going to get, these days.
Would be a nice TGRAPH feature if the jocks min. weight last 90 days was listed next to the name.
As they were walking the horses to the track announcer stated Ravi\'s Song was wearing glue on shoes.
elkurzhal Wrote:
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> Would be a nice TGRAPH feature if the jocks min.
> weight last 90 days was listed next to the name.
This might be helpful if their \"natural\" weight was listed as well, so I can estimate how fatigued each of them might be from constant reducing.
I\'d rather have the horses weight. Far more valuable piece of information.
I really doubt the 5 lbs made a difference. This one was off the bit on the far turn, and even if she had felt like running a little more, the wider trip was not going to catch the 4 who was narrowly beaten by the McPeek winner who got the rail trip.
Trainer KMP had 3 winners last night and one got Hit Hard Late, one got Hit Hard Early and One got Buried Money in the Double Pools.....Thats the information we needed!!!
Jockey\'s weight, horse\'s weight, reallY?? There\'s enough information to process, this is getting ridiculous.
Jockey\'s weight so you can adjust a TG figure?? Sure. The rest is nonsense.
P-Dub Wrote:
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> Jockey\'s weight, horse\'s weight, reallY?? There\'s
> enough information to process, this is getting
> ridiculous.
>
> Jockey\'s weight so you can adjust a TG figure??
> Sure. The rest is nonsense.
This info may be of no interest to *you*, but...does that make it \"nonsense\"?
* A older horse shows in his pp\'s that he runs his best when he\'s around, say, 1300 lbs. His poorer performances are when he has returned from layoff and tipped the scales at over 1500 lbs...but today, he checks in at 1250. Visual inspection confirms that he seems fit and healthy.
(Could knowing a horse\'s \"fighting weight\" vs. his current weight help make a betting decision? Some handicappers think so.)
* We have an on again, off again jockey here in Chicago that came out last year and admitted that he was having trouble making weight -- he is naturally a 150 lb. man. Some quick analysis showed that this guy was winning his share of the shorter races, but couldn\'t seem to get the job done at a route of ground, which revealed a pretty nifty betting angle: anytime this guy was replaced by another who could finish a route race, the horse almost always improved, and those that were paying attention and knew how to apply this arcane bit of info collected some handsome mutuels.
(Coincidence? Maybe, but I\'m not giving the money back.)
Finally, as a counterexample, I have absolutely no use for information about front wraps -- yet there are guys around who will argue to their death that this information is somehow significant...and yet, there it is, right in the pp\'s, much to my puzzlement.
The obvious concerns of how this newfangled info would be obtained, recorded, communicated, and who would pay for it -- all noted, but none are insurmountable barriers.
P-Dub:
The difference in weight carried between, say, 121 and 126 LBS is less than 5%. Anyone who uses these figs take such a differential seriously.
In any given race, there might be a horse that weighs 1000 LBS, and another that weighs 1200 LBS. That\'s a 20% differential. Don\'t you think that might be significant? I\'m not saying I would know how to use that information if I had it, but maybe I could come up with some methods to apply it, and it would certainly be interesting to look for patterns. I have always wondered whether a horse that weighs 100 LBS more than an opponent but carrying an additional 5 LBS, really is handicapped 1 TG point.
In any case, the Hong Kong Jockey Club makes this information available to its bettors - why can\'t we do the same here?
Horses weight would be nice, but isn\'t going to happen. Jockeys minimum weight last X 90\'s would be a easy thing to pull from a database. Yes, I take a 5 lb diff seriously. Would be nice to know if we can expect a guy to be 5+ overwieght.
Megahertz was a tiny mare, carried more weight than her opponents, and steam rolled them in the stretch. I\'m sure your point has merit, but where do we draw the line?? I wasn\'t referring to the TG wt scale as to whst is important when comparing figures.
As for Rick, yes its probably important to some. But why stop there??
- does a horse run better in the afternoon or evening?
- on a sunny day or cloudy day?
- on a windy day or no wind?
I could probably come up with many others. My point is how important is that stuff?? Horses that may be a bit overweight still win. Jockeys that have the issues you described still win races. I absolutely agree that there are significant jockey changes that should be noted.
It\'s odds and probability. If a horse is fast enough to be competitive, do the odds justify a wager?? I hit the last race at Belmont yesterday at 15/1, and the last thing I cared about was how much the jockey used to weigh or how heavy the horse was. He had great numbers and was 15/1.
I\'ve seen experienced body language guys talk me off a winner because the horse didn\'t \"look\" good. Paid well too. I\'m sure it\'s relevant at times, but the tote board is the key. If you guys want to get caught up in a horse\'s weight and what a jockey used to weigh, more power to you, I hope it helps. For me, it\'s largely irrelevant and my personal results back that up. For others, if it helps, then great.
P-Dub Wrote:
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> As for Rick, yes its probably important to some.
> But why stop there??
> - does a horse run better in the afternoon or
> evening?
> - on a sunny day or cloudy day?
> - on a windy day or no wind?
I would point out that I can obtain and track the above info myself; how do I get horse weight data on my own,
which (as another poster pointed out) the Hong Kong Jockey Club provides to the bettors; obviously, having and using this info is not that far-fetched.
> It\'s odds and probability. If a horse is fast
> enough to be competitive, do the odds justify a
> wager??
Fair enough, but you\'re only looking at what the horse has done before.
What\'s wrong with some information about his current condition, especially with layoff horses?
Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > As for Rick, yes its probably important to
> some.
> > But why stop there??
> > - does a horse run better in the afternoon or
> > evening?
> > - on a sunny day or cloudy day?
> > - on a windy day or no wind?
>
> I would point out that I can obtain and track the
> above info myself; how do I get horse weight data
> on my own,
> which (as another poster pointed out) the Hong
> Kong Jockey Club provides to the bettors;
> obviously, having and using this info is not that
> far-fetched.
>
> > It\'s odds and probability. If a horse is fast
> > enough to be competitive, do the odds justify a
> > wager??
>
> Fair enough, but you\'re only looking at what the
> horse has done before.
>
> What\'s wrong with some information about his
> current condition, especially with layoff horses?
Nothing at all, and if that info helps a player then by all means they should use it.
As for layoffs, another way to gauge readiness is with a trainer\'s past history. Some are more adept at getting a horse ready to fire off a layoff than others.
Its a great game. As this post illustrates, there are many ways to examine a race. What works for some doesn\'t necessarily work for others. Perhaps my comment of nonsense was a bit harsh.
For me, when the odds were a lot less than the ML odds, +5 lb overweight, and stuck on the outside, it was a no bet. So it was an important piece of information for me.
Dub, even though Megahurtz was tiny and steamrolled everyone carrying more weight, maybe she would have won by more lengths had she had less weight.
Interestingly enough, Megahurtz has a son who seems just as small as his mom who\'s won 2 in a row, including his last race at Hollywood at 9-1.
P-Dub wrote: \"Perhaps my comment of nonsense was a bit harsh.\"
Good Lord! It\'s been only about two weeks and just LOOK what\'s become of you!
Weight a somewhat controversial subject.To some every ounce matters, to others a few pounds is not relevant.Average horse is 1000 lbs, stands 64 inches/16 hands measured to the fetlock.
From there, you get to the immeasurable ability of each horse to carry the weight. It is impossible to believe that every horse has the same strength to shoulder say a 126lb impost.Light framed horses, esp fillies are most probably not as strong as larger animals.Megahurtz was a peanut but well put together.Her ability to carry weight was outside the norm.
Horses also lose quite a bit of weight from racing/training,lasix etc.so as to Rick B\'s comments,it\'s tough to do with so many horses at so many circuits, unlike Hongkong.It is uncommon for horses to be routinely weighed in NY, generally speaking.
Asked several jocks/trainers about weight and received varying opinions about it\'s overall relevance.The answers ranged from the individual horse to any weight the horse in question may have been spotting.Never spoke to anyone who did not want less weight on their horse.
Personal barometer has always been the Fall High weight where I have seen many horses carry the highest weight of their careers and run just as fast.The argument that they would have run faster with a few less pounds does not carry any weight with me, no pun intended.
Miff wrote:
\"Average horse is 1000 lbs, stands 64 inches/16 hands measured to the fetlock.\"
Most people measure from the ground up. Guessing you are measuring from the withers down?
Magic,
Either up or down but it\'s to the ground, not the fetlock, had brain lock.
Mike
magicnight Wrote:
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> P-Dub wrote: \"Perhaps my comment of nonsense was a
> bit harsh.\"
>
> Good Lord! It\'s been only about two weeks and just
> LOOK what\'s become of you!
HA!!
He has learned quickly..
I do not know if I would use weight of the horse as a large factor in my day to day
handicapping. That being said, I would be very curious as to IHA\'s weight going
into the Derby v. his weight going into the Belmont.
That\'s the point. Without seeing some data there\'s no way to know whether it\'s useful or not. But if a horse is running his best figures at or close to a certain weight and bad races below or above it, I would want to know his weight today-- which I think they give out in Japan, and in dog races here (at least used to).
George is looking at what we can do about the riders\' weights. I agree, it\'s a pain in the butt trying to figure out weight relationships handicapping the day before, especially at tracks you don\'t play regularly.
magicnight Wrote:
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> P-Dub wrote: \"Perhaps my comment of nonsense was a
> bit harsh.\"
>
> Good Lord! It\'s been only about two weeks and just
> LOOK what\'s become of you!
That\'s funny.
Would you guys prefer to old P-Dub, if not the one that gets admonished from time to time, one that still acts like an argumentative __________??
I like any of the P-Dubs, no matter how much weight you are carrying around.
Just a grumpy Monday for me (the in-laws are visiting, coincidence?), so I felt like throwing some darts, with you and Miff as the good-natured targets.
P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> It\'s odds and probability. If a horse is fast
> enough to be competitive, do the odds justify a
> wager?? I hit the last race at Belmont yesterday
> at 15/1, and the last thing I cared about was how
> much the jockey used to weigh or how heavy the
> horse was. He had great numbers and was 15/1.
P-Dub:
I\'ll leave the redboard alone, but I have to ask what numbers you are referring
to.
The winner of the last race Saturday was Not Today, a five year old making third
lifetime start, first start on turf. NT ran once as a 3YO (TG 23). NT\'s only
other lifetime race, as a 5YO, resulted in a TG 17. By my quick count, no less
than five runners in the race were faster than Not Today, including the 2
longshots I needed to complete very nice doubles: Dreamalot and Soup a Fleet, who
ran second and third. The trainer, ex NFL safety William Cesare, is struggling
this year, so again, I\'m wondering what #s we are talking about here. And please
dont tell me there was a pattern here.
Topcat probably remembers the owner of Not Today, Joe Imbesi, who trained some
nice horses for his family\'s Briardale Farm back in the day.
In an unrelated matter, I never took the time to congratulate you on your
marriage and compliment you on the heartfelt post about your mom. I will echo the
sentiments of another poster and say that I was glad I was alone at my desk when
I read it.
Life gives us second chances. My mother died in her early 50s, and, unfortunately,
we were estranged at the time of her death. Last Thanksgiving, my 85 year old
mother in law moved in with my wife and me. I am very close with my mother in
law, there is a very strong bond, which I partially attribute to trying to make
up for the years that I battled with my own mother.
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> > It\'s odds and probability. If a horse is fast
> > enough to be competitive, do the odds justify a
> > wager?? I hit the last race at Belmont
> yesterday
> > at 15/1, and the last thing I cared about was
> how
> > much the jockey used to weigh or how heavy the
> > horse was. He had great numbers and was 15/1.
>
> P-Dub:
>
> I\'ll leave the redboard alone, but I have to ask
> what numbers you are referring
> to.
>
> The winner of the last race Saturday was Not
> Today, a five year old making third
> lifetime start, first start on turf. NT ran once
> as a 3YO (TG 23). NT\'s only
> other lifetime race, as a 5YO, resulted in a TG
> 17. By my quick count, no less
> than five runners in the race were faster than Not
> Today, including the 2
> longshots I needed to complete very nice doubles:
> Dreamalot and Soup a Fleet, who
> ran second and third. The trainer, ex NFL safety
> William Cesare, is struggling
> this year, so again, I\'m wondering what #s we are
> talking about here. And please
> dont tell me there was a pattern here.
>
> Topcat probably remembers the owner of Not Today,
> Joe Imbesi, who trained some
> nice horses for his family\'s Briardale Farm back
> in the day.
>
> In an unrelated matter, I never took the time to
> congratulate you on your
> marriage and compliment you on the heartfelt post
> about your mom. I will echo the
> sentiments of another poster and say that I was
> glad I was alone at my desk when
> I read it.
>
> Life gives us second chances. My mother died in
> her early 50s, and, unfortunately,
> we were estranged at the time of her death. Last
> Thanksgiving, my 85 year old
> mother in law moved in with my wife and me. I am
> very close with my mother in
> law, there is a very strong bond, which I
> partially attribute to trying to make
> up for the years that I battled with my own
> mother.
Richie,
I use TG on big days: Breeders\' Cup, Kentucky Derby, etc.. For my daily handicapping, I play tracks big and small and use another product. Smaller tracks with cheaper horses, I don\'t have a strong handle on them using TG. I prefer using TG with better quality races. I should have used a generic....\"I hit a race last week\", instead of citing a specific race. This is a TG board, and I don\'t like to refer to other products, I don\'t think its in good taste to do so. My fault on that one.
I appreciate the kind words. I never thought my post would resonate with so many people. We are interring her ashes this Saturday, and having a small get together after with close family and friends. I won\'t be playing this Saturday, but have already informed everyone that at around 3:15 we will be watching the Belmont. My mom would expect nothing less.
Wonderful to hear about your mother-in-law. Cherish the time you spend with her. She sounds like a special woman. Life is a wonderful gift that at times we all take for granted.
Good luck this weekend.