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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Silver Charm on May 27, 2012, 06:35:16 PM

Title: Met
Post by: Silver Charm on May 27, 2012, 06:35:16 PM
Really a great race. Seriously fast runners in here with a throw back type field. Meaning going back to the days where Trainers with Big Horses ran in this race. Do feel like the lack of Big Weight being put on anyone anymore has taken away those types who would take a try with 110-112lbs....excluding those 3YO who did.

All that being said I like Calebs Posse. Carter had NO pace. Not a good bet at 9/5 but as a fan will enjoy watching the best Olders Horses in training go at each other for prestige.
Title: Re: Met
Post by: gteasy on May 27, 2012, 09:16:13 PM
CP was equally impressive in the Tom Fool, earning a great fig under less than ideal conditions.

In a wide open Met, Mott\'s THAS is hard to toss...could move to a new level as a 4Y0
after pairing his negative top quickly last year...could save ground...barn tends to leave something in the tank.
Title: Re: Met
Post by: plasticman on May 28, 2012, 12:29:14 AM
Is Saginaw, a 30k claimer is going to win a 750k grade 1 race?

Just ran a 109 Beyer under a stranglehold. Goes from 123 to 115 lbs.

I\'ll have what he\'s having.
Title: Re: Met
Post by: Silver Charm on May 28, 2012, 06:20:27 AM
Lol thats what I said. And he was a Off Tricky Claim.

The comment on THS could he true. Buy he is gonna need it in here aNd the Forward Move will be in the price. Caleb and he will be Co-Favs at 9/5.

Jaskson Bend is no slouch at this distance. He will be like 4-1. Other than Acclimation I am not sure what Top Handicap horse isnt in here....should be a good.one!!
Title: Re: Met
Post by: richiebee on May 28, 2012, 08:27:48 AM
While ROTW points out that THAS is not overly impressive by the numbers, I am
impressed by the fact that THAS has major wins at the one turn mile and in two
turn races. Nice to see that sort of versatility in a Grade I performer.

In an unrelated matter, to steal a line from Kramer in Seinfeld, that 4/5
Morning Line on IHA in the Belmont \"is making me thirsty\"...
Title: Re: Met
Post by: sighthound on May 28, 2012, 12:10:08 PM
FYI Saginaw is 2 lbs over
Title: Re: Met
Post by: TGJB on May 28, 2012, 12:15:23 PM
Sight-- comments on the Tims article posted below, specifically the question of Lasix as an alkalyzing agent, and the report he cites?

And yes, that stuff about the Lasix rule in California is really unbelievable.
Title: Re: Met
Post by: plasticman on May 28, 2012, 02:32:24 PM
Looks like the rail horse is going to be \'handed\' the race, just like the previous race. If the 2 and 4 \'grab\' its all over.

The way they\'re betting the 1 looks like someone knows there isnt any \'pace\' in here.

Too bad, i was hoping for them to \'race horses\' but the betting seems to indicate otherwise.

This Honor n Serve doenst seem to be able to win a dogfight...either he\'s cruising uncontested, or he\'s up the track.
Title: Re: Met
Post by: number5858 on May 28, 2012, 02:38:43 PM
THAS could be getting some Memorial Day sympathy bet. Based on the odds, you have to like Jackson Bend at 8/1 for a piece.
Title: Re: Met
Post by: boston on May 28, 2012, 02:46:30 PM
i like calixa at 18-1
Title: Re: Met
Post by: boston on May 28, 2012, 02:47:03 PM
fighting the track but at these odds i have to take a shot
Title: Re: Met
Post by: FrankD. on May 28, 2012, 02:47:34 PM
6/5 on THAS is insane.

HERE\'S  hoping THAS and Shak over cook the Memorial Day BBQ.

Calebs Posse, Jackson Bend & Caixa Electrica in a ti box and heavy tri with Caleb on top
Title: Re: Met
Post by: Boscar Obarra on May 28, 2012, 02:50:27 PM
I figured 33 and change. HUGE Bias aided win.

thas not happy , failed to change leads and flat out
Title: Re: Met
Post by: Silver Charm on May 28, 2012, 02:57:44 PM
Disappointed but not beaten. My horse ran great. The Winner ran better. Good ROTW Analysis on THAS who was SOFT today. Rail Box he got in was NO excuse.

This was a real horse race. Looked liked the same rise Johnny V gave Honor and Glory a few years back. Congrats to Team Romans!!!
Title: Re: Met
Post by: number5858 on May 28, 2012, 03:02:00 PM
I did the same Frank. Not our day.
Title: Re: Met
Post by: phil23 on May 28, 2012, 04:18:53 PM
That makes 3 of us, with a little of the 4 thrown in just for good (costly that is) measure.
Title: Re: Met
Post by: plasticman on May 28, 2012, 06:23:26 PM
THAS either wins in a canter or is well beaten. He doesnt like to battle hard in win photos. If you pin him in and make him uncomfortable, you have a shot. I was sad at Jackson Bend\'s effort today, he \'walked\' to the stalking trip and couldnt run a step today. He was \'bet\' like he was going to be \'no good\' today and he was.
Title: Re: Met
Post by: Silver Charm on May 28, 2012, 07:18:16 PM
You NAILED it!! And its time to begin giving credit to the winner and Dale Romans who seems like he has now won a little bit of everything. Dirt ot Turf. And doesnt really have a specifcally big outfit backing him. 1:33:30 is real time!!

Should be a Super Spectacle on Belmont Day
Title: Re: Met
Post by: plasticman on May 28, 2012, 09:17:40 PM
Romans is an amazing trainer, one of the best in the country, i would say he\'s one of the best 5 trainers in the game today.
Title: Re: Met .. Durkin
Post by: sekrah on May 29, 2012, 02:36:56 AM
Was busy yesterdaay and just got a chance to watch the replay..  Man, Durkin needs to hang it up.  Like Yesterday.  What a thrilling race and pathetic call.   It\'s like watching Willie Mays struggling to chase down fly balls with the Mets.
Title: Re: Met
Post by: miff on May 29, 2012, 06:26:10 AM
Plastic,

What were they thinking sending Jackson Bend on the chase in 44 & change, he\'s got one big run.Like Nick Zito but seriously have to question the many unorthodox moves/strategies he makes with his horses.

Mott on THAS, who failed to change leads and came up empty when a seam opened mid stretch.Might be one of the many that do not run their best on the inside while covered up.

\"An unlikely horse was keeping us in,\" said To Honor and Serve\'s trainer Bill Mott, referring to Jackson Bend. \"Somebody I didn\'t expect to be even close to the pace. He was probably willing to get up there and challenge the leader down the backside, but he couldn\'t do it because he was kind of being held in.\"
Title: Re: Met
Post by: Perfect Drift on May 29, 2012, 09:36:41 AM
115 Beyer, I\'d assume Caleb\'s Posse threw another -3, at least.  Time to change jockeys, you can\'t have Maragh losing neck, nose, nose.
Title: Re: Met
Post by: Lost Cause on May 29, 2012, 10:27:33 AM
Perfect Drift Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 115 Beyer, I\'d assume Caleb\'s Posse threw another
> -3, at least.  Time to change jockeys, you can\'t
> have Maragh losing neck, nose, nose.


Tough call on the jock...Shack is a tough S.O.B. and he likes to fight it out also.  The speed bias didn\'t hurt either.  

I\'m not a fan of his but I don\'t think Maragh did anything wrong in any of the 3 races this year.  He made his run and he just missed against some hard hitters..
Title: Re: Met
Post by: Boscar Obarra on May 29, 2012, 01:51:17 PM
the 3/3 race was also against the track . This horse is hard luck is all, jock has nothing to due with it. yeah, if could have come up the rail , maybe he gets up, but doubt he\'s able to make a run like that hugging the fence.
Title: Re: Met
Post by: plasticman on May 29, 2012, 05:09:27 PM
mike, i think that 2 things were at work. 1) the previous race, the leader went right around the track and jogged, that baffert filly had equal beyer figs to the other speed horse and yet, the inside lane and the lead made the difference to the tune of many lengths.  Maybe Zito was thinking \"if im too far back i have no shot\"

Also, when jackson broke alertly, the jock just figured \"let me go on with it\" and he was in good position.

I think that Jackson bend will race better next time with a different style. He\'s gotta make one run from the back and just hope there isnt a huge speed bias.

When Durkin called him \'diminutive\' at the top of the stretch, i said to myself \"what am i doing betting on a really small horse vs this type of competion!\"
Title: Re: Met
Post by: miff on May 29, 2012, 06:33:44 PM
On his day, Jackson Bend has wicked run.Like him best at 7f.
Title: Re: Met
Post by: Perfect Drift on May 31, 2012, 06:55:01 AM
Here\'s the point... Maragh is a \"B\" list jockey and there\'s a reason for that, it\'s because he\'s not as good as Gomez, Castellano, Johnny V, Bejarano, Rosario, Leparoux, etc.  If one of them gets beat three times in a row neck, nose, nose... I could probably handle it.  But, when a \"B\" lister is beat the same way, I have to see if a jock change makes a difference.  Caleb is an AWESOME animal and he deserves the best jockey possible.
Title: Re: Met
Post by: sighthound on May 31, 2012, 08:13:38 AM
I\'ve always had respect for Maragh as a horseman.  His \"B\" jock status comes from his venue, not his ability.  He\'s finally getting his national stage due. Watching those stretch runs, it seems to me he gets the max effort out of his animal, relaxed and trying hard.  I\'m just a big fan of one of the few jocks that ride with \"feel\" and intelligence.

I understand your point.  We\'ll see what the trainer choses to do.
Title: Re: Met
Post by: Rick B. on May 31, 2012, 09:25:57 AM
Another factor is the trainer himself.

Us folks in the midwest know Donnie Von Hemel is an excellent horseman, but I don\'t know how much that helps him when he ships to the east coast. Rajiv might be the best local rider Von Hemel can book.

I can\'t imagine Johnny V\'s agent saying, \"Yes, Todd, I know you have a great horse in this race, but...we\'re going to give this Caleb\'s Posse a try for this trainer from Oklahoma\".

Of course I\'m being a little silly, but you get the idea.