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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: shanahan on May 19, 2012, 04:38:41 PM

Title: Analysis
Post by: shanahan on May 19, 2012, 04:38:41 PM
Preakness is usually the only time it\'s a good product...nice job today, but the big race comment was inexcusable.

Hope all is jazzed @ Belmont. I am.
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: Wire To Wire on May 19, 2012, 06:03:36 PM
Anybody who had Thorograph HAD to have a winning day at Pimlico today!
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: JR on May 19, 2012, 06:14:59 PM
Why?
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: JR on May 19, 2012, 06:21:14 PM
Oh sorry. You\'re referring to the analysis. I didn\'t buy it but they could have an OK day. I\'m guessing their biggest score was in the Dixie with HAH finishing the exacta. That was a good payout. But where was Smart Bid?
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: Beau on May 19, 2012, 06:40:05 PM
I agree the TG sheets enabled me to have a very nice day! Thanks JB and gang!
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: touchgold on May 19, 2012, 07:44:55 PM
didnt get the analysis, but 2 horses all day pay over 10.00???.....cant imagine any huge scores....but kudos to those who did
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: miff on May 19, 2012, 07:59:47 PM
Unless they did something to speed up the surface before the Preakness, the figure is like Neg 2 for IHA.

Pimlico surface dull both days with slow raw times, negative speed in routes, the inside ugly.Stiff breeze and sunny conditions sucking tightness out

First two in Preakness tower over this crop.Tough to see IHA getting outrun in the Belmont.Needs to show resiliency once more.IHA\'s back being treated by a massage therapist.With 3 weeks in between,IHA could get another shock wave treatment and still have time to get off the vets list.

NYRA lucks out with app another 50k in attendance in three weeks.


Mike
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: Lost Cause on May 19, 2012, 08:21:35 PM
miff Wrote:


> NYRA lucks out with app another 50k in attendance
> in three weeks.
>
>
> Mike


First Triple crown chance without OTB\'s in NYC.  It will be more packed than ever..guaranteed they will break their records

I have seen a few triple crown contenders lose the Belmont from Alysheba on and I think this one has the best chance of all.  The other ones I never really thought they could finish the job although some came close.  This horse is absolutely the real deal and he can run all day while staying close up to the pace.  I can\'t see a scenario where this horse get beat.  Speed duel he takes back and gets you.  No speed he stays close up or stalks and grinds you down.  I can\'t find a 3 year old to play to beat him.  Union Rags is not going a mile and a half and beating this horse.
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: touchgold on May 19, 2012, 08:24:13 PM
I concur!!!.....impressive animal.
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: jalt2 on May 19, 2012, 08:40:08 PM
Dullahan. Hope he gives a little honk of the horn on the way past IHA.
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: jimbo66 on May 19, 2012, 08:49:09 PM
Can\'t blame anybody for thinking this guy has a big shot.

But put me on Union Rags right now.  Thought he was the best of this generation before the Derby, did no running in the Derby, skipped the Preakness and will be fresh for the Belmont.

Meanwhile, I\'ll Have Another has run two VERY nice races, having to run especially hard to run down Bode today.  Have to think he will be vulnerable in 3 weeks at the 1 1/2 miles.

I just need the Frenchman fired to feel stronger........
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: shanahan on May 20, 2012, 04:14:43 AM
The analysis was ok, but the specific Preakness race analysis was borderline comical..well it would have been had I not paid for it.
In truth, Preakness day may be the best day to buy it.  Over the years I have found it excellent to both find an overlooked horse as well as verify my own piks.
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: JimP on May 20, 2012, 04:37:05 AM
Of the specific bets that were recommended in the Analysis, I can see only 2 that were cashed. Races 6 and 7.
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: Beau on May 20, 2012, 05:47:47 AM
Well, I play pk3\'s, pk4\'s and pk5\'s and to me there was some very solid singles.

Sorry for the redboard! I usually do not post my luck at all, but it\'s been a long time since I made a serious score like this!

The race that separated me was the 9th, I love English Channel\'s first time turf as the sire profile has him at 24% first time turf. Even though he ran a new top last race on dirt, which was HT and GM same top, I figured him to not bounce as much on turf and be right there :)

To me the singles were Claire Skies Ahead $11.00, Hamazing Destiny $7.80, and Skyring $19.60, those three produced a .50 cent pk3 that paid $121.50 and I killed it!

Hudson Steele $8.20, was another single that produced a .50 cent pk5 that paid $1485 and I crush it, as well as the other pk\'s.


The value may not have been in the vertical play\'s with the exception of the exacta Hudson Steele over Humble and Hungry. I Finally put it all together yesterday by not trying to beat the fastest horses in the race.

I did not use the analysis nor have I seen it but I am going to check it out today.
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: miff on May 20, 2012, 05:49:10 AM
No question IHA has to show up again, the others have to improve like 6 to 10 lengths to have any chance if IHA does show up.Highly unlikely any of the others improving that
much so IHA will have to back up to get beat.None of the others have shown anywhere near enough ability to outrun him.
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: Rick B. on May 20, 2012, 07:08:41 AM
Beau Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> To me the singles...Hamazing Destiny $7.80, and Skyring $19.60

Comment A: You singled two Lukas horses? Including one, \"Hanging Density\", who hadn\'t won any sort of race in two years? Is this the sort of move you make on a regular basis?

> Sorry for the redboard! I usually do not post my
> luck at all, but it\'s been a long time since I
> made a serious score like this!

Comment B: Congrats on your score, but I can\'t help but say: see Comment A for clues on your drought.
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: shanahan on May 20, 2012, 07:12:32 AM
jim, I roll pik 3 all day long.
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: JR on May 20, 2012, 07:25:36 AM
My optimism is tempered by the remebrance of having exactly that same feeling in the past. It\'s still 3 hard races in the span of 7 weeks. Fresh faces have a significant advantage.
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: Beau on May 20, 2012, 07:29:48 AM
I know imagine that 2 Lukas horses, back to back at that. Like I said before I did not try and beat the fastest horses in the race.

I am not a long time user of TG, still learning...  that numbers do not lie!
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: Rick B. on May 20, 2012, 08:00:08 AM
Beau Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I am not a long time user of TG, still learning...
>  that numbers do not lie!

You must not have played Pimlico on Friday, then; the \"best numbers\" horses were not only not winning, they were getting thumped.
 
I chucked the Sheets -- something I don\'t normally do -- just in time to find a $50+ horse that had bad numbers but reasonably good grass breeding, and the rail.

I\'m glad things worked out for you yesterday, but...don\'t fall in love with the numbers. Not until horses learn how to read, anyway.  ;)
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: Rick B. on May 20, 2012, 08:28:34 AM
shanahan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The analysis was ok, but the specific Preakness
> race analysis was borderline comical..well it
> would have been had I not paid for it.

I just grabbed the Analysis from the Redboard Room.

Shanny -- not to shill for the house, nor pick a fight, but...what was comical?
 
The idea that the horses coming from the Derby might not fire isn\'t that silly; while the Derby horses have a tendency to run well in The Preakness, it\'s not like we\'ve never seen Derby horses come back in 2 weeks and puke halfway around the Pimlico oval.

The \"doubt\" expressed by TGJB about the Preakness faves was, IMO, a signal that it wasn\'t the world\'s best betting race, so don\'t go ass-crazy on it. (I know...easy to say that today...). But if I\'m in the Pick N bets, there is no way I leave out the main Derby returnees based on JB\'s comments...nor would I have tried for the home run and used only the two uber-longshots.
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: TGJB on May 20, 2012, 08:49:05 AM
5th race the 3 horse box ran 1-2-3, $40 exacta and $208 tri.
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: Topcat on May 20, 2012, 09:49:46 AM
JR Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My optimism is tempered by the remebrance of
> having exactly that same feeling in the past. It\'s
> still 3 hard races in the span of 7 weeks. Fresh
> faces have a significant advantage.


Not busting chops . . . but a span of FIVE weeks.  

Still, leave it be.   D. Wayne has been repeatedly quoted to want the Derby to be 1 1/8 miles.   Jeezus, leave it alone.
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: Silver Charm on May 20, 2012, 09:59:53 AM
We need a trending now ticker on this board.... I think Drape and D Wayne would.lead everyday.....
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: JR on May 20, 2012, 11:29:20 AM
Chops busted. Thank you for the correction. My minds to old for this. But it was a beautiful day there yesterday.
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: JimP on May 20, 2012, 11:48:21 AM
I only counted the races where a specific play was stated. The analysis of the 5th listed the 3 \"best\" horses but didn\'t state any particular bet. But I can see how one could deduce that a Box was intended even though not stated. So count that one and the score is 3 wins, 8 outs, 2 passes.
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: sighthound on May 20, 2012, 12:17:16 PM
I remember Affirmed, Alydar. Secretariat and Sham.  Dr. Fager. IMO Barbaro should have been our most recent Triple Crown winner.  

I\'ll Have Another is clearly the best of Bodemeister, both very good horses.  Spring proves how much potential they have, fall and 4-year-old year proves if they are great.  Wish the JC Gold Cup was still long.

We\'ve lost quality in the USA IMO, and it\'s not due to \"lasix\" and \"drugs\".  It\'s due to simply being afraid to run horses against each other.  Horses no longer have careers on the track - they get their 2 or 3 Graded Stakes wins and off to the shed.
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: Lost Cause on May 20, 2012, 05:23:37 PM
sighthound Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>  IMO Barbaro should have been our most
> recent Triple Crown winner.  
>
He and Bernardini would have put on a hell of a show
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: Edgorman on May 20, 2012, 05:39:11 PM
I will take 3 wins a day anytime. And this is done before the conditions and betting.  Calm down and smell the roses.
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: Wire To Wire on May 20, 2012, 06:09:35 PM
You go, Beau!
Great singles for pick 3/4/5 sequences, which is where the money was made yesterday
Skyring\'s thorograph breeding info included a dam who produced horses who ran 4,5,6 on turf and he had a good pattern and fast dirt numbers
And don\'t forget Il Villano earlier in the card...certainly another that you could have singled
The Best Bet of the Day was certainly Clare Skies Ahead...a blind man could have come up with her!...and she ran an amazing race!
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: JimP on May 20, 2012, 07:40:59 PM
Good for you. You are apparently making some assumptions about my state of mind. I\'m pleased for you that your handicapping hits on a higher percentage than your mind reading. 2 (or 3) out of 11 is an outstanding day for the Analysis as well. I wasn\'t knocking it. I was just counting. Is there something wrong with keeping score?
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: Topcat on May 21, 2012, 04:03:42 AM
Wire To Wire Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You go, Beau!
> Great singles for pick 3/4/5 sequences, which is
> where the money was made yesterday
> Skyring\'s thorograph breeding info included a dam
> who produced horses who ran 4,5,6 on turf and he
> had a good pattern and fast dirt numbers
> And don\'t forget Il Villano earlier in the
> card...certainly another that you could have
> singled
> The Best Bet of the Day was certainly Clare Skies
> Ahead...a blind man could have come up with
> her!...and she ran an amazing race!


The way the odds board read near post time, CSA was absolutely the play, in there.   Corey absenting himself from McMahon\'s horse was a clear red flag, and Motion\'s hanging witch is capable of finishing second to ANYBODY.
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: TGJB on May 21, 2012, 08:37:42 AM
To be clear, when I wrote it out I said box, someone typed it in without that sentence. Any time you see three horses (without one being pointed out as a favorite to bet against) it\'s a box unless otherwise stated. In this case it\'s hard to see how anyone could go off the analysis and not have the tri, with or without specifying \"box\".
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: miff on May 21, 2012, 08:41:47 AM
Speaking of analysis, I\'m told(unconfirmed) that Rags picked Cozetti to win the Preakness. Don\'t know if it was supposed to be a joke or serious.
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: TGJB on May 21, 2012, 08:50:42 AM
It was Friedman, and it\'s still up on their board if you go back a few days.

And while we\'re on (or close to) the subject, they still haven\'t said whether Ragozin is still involved. Which means he\'s not, and probably hasn\'t been for some time. Letting it end this way is pretty disgusting considering he started the company-- almost makes me feel sympathy for the guy.

Almost.
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: miff on May 21, 2012, 08:58:56 AM
You mean there are people that actually made Cozetti off the data? Find that hard to believe.
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: shanahan on May 21, 2012, 03:13:51 PM
That\'s a 25 dollar mistake for TG, and perhaps a larger one for the customer.  If you are having someone type it up not familiar with the program names, it\'s evident.  If I was a new customer - and you must be aware that for the Triple Crown you get most of your NEW clients - its not understood, and not acceptable to think everyone will know that.  It is an exception and not the rule.
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: TGJB on May 21, 2012, 04:04:11 PM
What exactly did you think was being suggested as a play when you were given three horses?
Title: Re: Analysis
Post by: moosepalm on May 21, 2012, 04:45:43 PM
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> What exactly did you think was being suggested as
> a play when you were given three horses?


I was sure it was a multiple choice question.