Went The Day Well is my key, over Bodemeister and Teeth of the Dog. Toss the 1 and the 10.
He may not hit the board but Tiger Walk has some things going for him here.
Post relief
Equipment change
Pattern
String of works at Pimlico
Extra 1/6th to work with
Other than Cozzetti he looks the the horse most likely to jump up and that one is gonna have to figure out a trip from the 11.
Using with WTDW and IHA
right with you big. i\'m keying iha over wtdw and using tiger walk and zetterholm. i will play a safety box with iha & cc also iha with dnb. not sure what to do with cc & dnb. asmussen does well at pim. had nehro run big yesterday. not dismissing dnb @ 13-1.
First-time analysis from a long-time forum reader:
1. Tiger Walk: broke through with a 4, yet to repeat; doubt he will go much below that; blinker change in a big race not necessarily a positive.
2. Teeth of the Dog: similar to Tiger Walk, but with a 3; may get into tri and super.
3. Pretension: may be headed downward, but hasn't yet repeated a 6, bouncing from it last time.
4. Zetterholm: 13 point improvement this year alone; nice line, may make the tri and super.
5. Went The Day Well: paired the 3, short rest, may pair; don't see him dropping; could make all the exotics.
6. Creative Cause: only a two-point drop in Derby; has room to get back to the 0; major contender.
7. Bodemeister: no doubt about getting the lead, but the Derby bounce suggests he may be burned out this year with no 2-year-old foundation behind him; exotics.
8. Daddy Nose Best: Derby race and number a real stinker; don't see him suddenly getting down to a winning number.
9. I'll Have Another: right back to his top in Derby, may have more to go even on short rest; don't know what the impact of the two round trips is; maybe he likes flying; contender.
10. Optimizer: too slow to have an impact.
11. Cozzetti: paired the 5s, now what? will probably lose a couple of points being wide if he attempts a move; so he would need a 0 to get it done; not likely.
So, I'll be playing the 6 to win and making the exotic combinations suggested by my analysis. No bombs, I'm afraid.
Mike
it was creative cause that made the 2 round trips not iha.
Thanks for the correction. My analysis stays the same.
I\'ll try to sneak one of the slower ones into the tri, and bump the favorite out of the top 2 spots.
Creative Cause - has the # power, and got 1 3/16 of the 10f in the Derby; looks well suited for today\'s trip. could be spent after the cross country journey, but that risk appears to be in the price at 6-1 (or at least some of it). CC is a pretty solid use here.
Zetterholm - 1/2 to Wishful Tomcat, a fast 9f runner by Tactical Cat, a sire who doesn\'t get many good routers. nice pattern and a decent figure last with something left. Dutrow? ehhh, but like him in this type of spot, and he does well with Alvarado. great post. a new top isn\'t out of the question. 20-1.
IHA - don\'t see a hell of a lot of value here, but he\'s been the best 3 yr old so far, and I won\'t let him beat me.
Bode - at 2-1, the best I can do is pencil in another run in the \'3\' range, and leave him out of the top 2 spots.
WTDW - I think he\'ll make his run. the wide sweep from way back isn\'t easy at Pim though.
Use CC, Zett, and IHA in the top two spots. Bode and WTDW underneath with one or two others.
And some Zetterholm to win.
I\'m wondering about the rail on the dirt...
Siegel from HRTV actually mentioned the same thing to Baffert during his last interview. Winners seem to be coming from the outside, Bode seems up against it.
Mike Smith just said the track is not playing in their favor. Rooting and betting on IHA-racing and Joe Drape could use a triple crown winner
Won\'t be nearly as crowded as the Derby was . . . Rosario will have no excuse if he gives away a zillion lengths in ground, today.
CC can run on the turns. A real plus at Pimlico. He will have a target in Bode when he straightens for home. Cant get the lead to soon, cant wait too late and long. Lot to think about for a guy who lost a brother earlier today. May they all have a safe trip around!!