Thought I\'d try to spark a discussion again. Handicapping the Derby has always been a source of fascination with me. I have had some big scores the past 10 years (Monarchos, Thunder Gulch, Go for Gin, etc.) - some because of the Sheets, others because I just liked the horse. Anyway, here are my top 5 horses. I think I would have liked Repent, but alas, it was not meant to be (just like AP Indy).
#1 Harlan\'s Holiday - hate to take the favorite, but I really like his line - he\'s poised for a forward move and has a great bottom under him in my opinion
#2 Buddha - the only one of the Wood superstars that I don\'t think will bounce - only backed up slightly off his previous race
#3 Request for Parole - don\'t know how much forward he can go since he has equaled his two year old top twice this year without moving forward, but I have to think he has a big chance and will be a big, big price
#4 Blue Burner - probably will bounce off that Wood effort, but seems to be a consistent sort and is the kind that may put in a big run to pick up the pieces at the end
#5 Essence of Dubai - here\'s where the Derby feeling comes in. By rights, Johannesburg should be in the top 5 due to his BC number, but it\'s pretty tough to play him off that prep this year - meanwhile EoD looks like he\'ll have to run a lifetime top to win, but already having a mile and a quarter win, I\'ll give him the benefit of the doubt
I may not be taking the high road on this board, but I\'m certainly taking the higher road. Let me hear your opinions this time.
Jim,
Until I see all the latest figures and who actually enters the race and the post draw, I cannot form a strong opinion on the Derby. However, I do have a few questions regarding your comments.
If you like RFP, why not Perfect Drift?
If you like Blue Burner, why not Saarland?
In both cases, you have similar horses, with similar lines coming out of the same race and in each case the horse on your list was passed in the stretch by the horse I mentioned (and I guess Sarland might have even been holding his breath...). Additionally, the horses that that I mentioned also have better \"Derby Breeding\" IMHO.
I was thinking it might be the odds but since you have Buddah and Harlan\'s Holiday on your list, I figure there must be other reasons.
I agree that Essence of Dubai is interesting but would like to know how much he has improved in his 3yo races.
I am inclined to play against both Buddah and Harlan\'s Holiday given the likely odds and the fact that both probably peaked
in Florida although I would not be shocked to see either run well in the Derby. I know that was the case with Monarchos and Invisible Ink last year but I still don\'t like that line going into the Derby. Of course, that opinion cost me some money last year...
Chris
Jim, are you some kind of oracle? How can you say you like the overall look of a horse\'s line when you don\'t have the figures from the last race? Or do you know something we dont? How can you state matter-of-factly that HH is poised for a forward move and Buddah only backed up \"slightly\". That is impossible without the figures.
Chris and I are on the same page, but I do want to point out the IInk looked much more attractive last year beacuase his big race (1) was run in early Feb and he then bounced and showed a recovery race before the derby hinting he was cycling back. I thought Monarchos was ripe for an 0-2-x coming into the derby, but now looking back it was actually a 3.5 point bounce and I have since ammended my views to include horses running style and think that closers are less suseptable to 0-2-x patterns.
For those who keep comparing Monarchos to Buddah, Monarchos came into the derby running 15-15-7-3-0-3 and Buddah looks like 19-5-0-?. I\'m guessing the last race is about a 2-3, but who knows. While Monarchos is not exactly what you want to see in the line of an even progression without quick jumps, it still is a more favorable pattern than Buddah. Throw in the fact that Buddah is more a front-running type, and I think you are going to see a classic 0-2-X from him in the derby.
Harlan I still give a shot in the exotics, but that was one tough spring he put together. The 0 in the Fla Derby may have been a knockout punch.
But hey, I love it when people talk about the favorites, it makes the odds better for the other horses. And I expect Buddah will take a lot of money from the once a year horse player who shows up for the derby because \"he has a cool name\". Battaglia says 15-1 for Perfect Drift in his preliminary line, I\'ll be ecstatic to get that, given I think he has a 15-20% chance of winning.
Mike B says HH at 5-1 and BUDDAH at 6-1 i see Buddah going lower than that around 9-2, why?? Pat Day at CD on a gray. Talking about on track odds. Yes we do have to wait till the final numbers are up.
derby,
First, thanks for the response.
I like RFP better than Perfect Drift because I see PD bouncing. I could be wrong about that. If you go with the opinion that his race on a wet track two back is a throwout, then I think you have a better argument. I think RFP has an opportunity to move forward and see no reason to bounce him - couple that with what I think will be tremendous value and that is why I\'ll use him.
Saarland is not a bad horse - I think the Wood was a great field and I loved his dam BTW. I just see him making a bigger backward move. He had a short race, then a big move forward for a lifetime top last out. I see him regressing. Blue Burner will most likely bounce too, but I think has a better foundation under him and didn\'t make the big jump that Saarland did.
Treadhead, an oracle? Hardly. I have seen the numbers for the last preps. They are circulating around the track.
You may be right about the 0-2-X on Buddha, but the Sheets don\'t support it in the classic sense.
I actually think HH comes closer to fitting the 0-2-X profile. But that conflicts with another profile I like - 3yo\'s that equal or break through their two top year-old number, will make another forward move in the next two races. He didn\'t make it last time, so I expect him to move forward this time, which should put him right there.
All in my opinion, of course.
Are you speaking of THE SHEETS numbers or TG numbers that you already have?
When we publish them, take a look at that wet track figure for PD and RFP on TG. It was then that I bet RFP at 60-1 and PD at prices between 90 and 100-1. The other bets I have are EOD at 48-1, and pool 2 mutual field(right now about 11 KD starters including Buddha, MDO, Private Emblem, War Emblem, Castle G)at 7-1.
And as you will see, the Wood horses look a whole lot different if you don\'t give the race a crazy figure.
Make it clear when you do this that you are talking about Ragozin numbers- I encourage all pre-race comparisons because a lot of Raggies come to this site, and it gives them a good chance to compare in advance. When I get the time I will discuss the mistake Ragozin made that resulted in the hugely inflated Wood figure(for the second time in 3 years). I took HH at 40-1 when he got back to his 2yo top in his first start this year, but I suspect he\'s done too much too soon. He might have one more left.
Speaking of high roads, what do you think would have happened if I put a similar post up on the Rag board?
since none of us know the TG figures..:)
Chris
I like the fact that Jerry knows already the mistake that the Rags made in the wood. I guess that goes from years of working with them and having people from the Rags come work for you. Have you ever had any of your boys quit and go to work for them??
Below is a list of the most recent 20 Derby winners. With only a few exceptions, these horses, not surprisingly, all put in strong stretch runs in their final Derby preps. Only a couple of them were passed by another horse in the stretch and in those cases, unusual pace scenarios or track conditions were an important factor. For example, Silver Charm was nosed out in a thrilling stretch run but only after he uncharacteristically got caught up in a speed duel (he typically stalked the early pace) but, despite going 45 flat and 1:09 flat early, he tenaciously dug in during the final 16th after being headed in mid stretch and still won over many new backers even in defeat. In many cases, the eventual Derby winner did not win its final Derby prep but instead chased home one or more front runners through the stretch but then managed to turn the tables on those same horses given the added distance and pace pressure in the Derby. A look at the second place finishers in the Derby reveals a very similar pattern.
I would think twice before betting on a horse that did not put in a strong stretch run in its final Derby prep, particularly, if it was passed by other horses in the stretch. This is one reason I would be reluctant to play RFP or Blue Burner even at long odds. Once again, this is just one of many factors I consider when handicapping the Derby.
One final note: notice that all of these horses (except for Spend A Buck), also not surprisingly, ran their final Derby preps in either the Wood, SA Derby, Blue Grass, Aks Derby, or Lexington. Of course, training methods, the spacing of traditional Derby preps / the addition of several new preps, and shipping options have changed a lot in recent years but this last factor is also probably still worth taking into consideration.
Chris
*****
Most Recent 20 Derby Winners:
Monarchos (chased Congaree in Wood)
Fusaichi Pegasus (drew off in Wood)
Charismatic (drew off in Lex)
Real Quiet (chased Indian Charlie in SA Derby)
Silver Charm (sizzled early, dug-in late, nosed out in SA Derby)
Grindstone (closed furiously but fell a nose short in Aks Derby)
Thunder Gulch (pressed dawdling pace in BG and failed to cut into lead)
Go for Gin (chased Irgun in Wood)
Sea Hero (pressed dawdling pace in BG and failed to cut into lead)
Lil E. Tee (chased Pine Bluff in the Aks Dby)
Strike The Gold (drew off in BG)
Unbridled (chased Summer Squall in BG)
Sunday Silence (drew off in SA Derby)
Winning Colors (drew off in SA Derby)
Alysheba (closed to win but was DQ’d in BG)
Ferdinand (chased in SA Derby )
Spend A Buck (ran away and hid in Garden State Derby)
Swale (Chased He Is A Great Deal in the slop in Lex)
Sunny\'s Halo (ran away and hid in Aks Derby)
Gato Del Sol (chased Linkage in BG)
That\'s not how I know. Friedman posted on their site about the Wood figures, and it was clear immediately what they did(fail to split the 1 and 2 turn races)- it was the only way you could come up with that figure. Our figure, by the way, is rock solid- of the 6 who finished, 3 exactly paired their last race, one went back 3/4 of a point, and two bounced off tops they figured to bounce from(including Buddha).
Two guys who made figures for Ragozin now make figures for us. One guy and gal who did clerical work for us went on to do the same for Ragozin.
I have also looked at the Rags for the proposed Derby horses and have to question your selection of Harlan\'s Holiday, Jim. Whether or not the TG sheets make him out to be a strong or simply mild contender, it seems odd that in a race that figures to have 18-20 entrants you could possibly think that he is the best play. You made him your top selection, although in your posting earlier today you mention that he\'s at least a slight possibility for fitting an 0-2-x pattern.
I actually agree with you that he should move forward off his last race, but the question REALLY is (if you like him) whether or not his forward move will make him good enough to win? There are several horses that have run faster recently than Harlan\'s Holiday has EVER run, and although many of those are likely to bounce there always seems to be 1 or 2 that doesn\'t (like Charasmatic, who figured to go way backwards after his Lexington win yet continued to move forward).
The only real positives I see with your selection of Harlan\'s Holiday are that he is definitely consistent (most of his races make him at least an exotics contender) and that with the large field expected, he figures to be around 4-1 as the favorite which isn\'t a horrible price if you REALLY like him. He can win
Like another poster mentioned, it\'s a bit early to make a strong selection as post positions and track condition will play a role. Request For Parole probably would be a pitch if it\'s a wet track (according to Rags), whereas he could be keyed if it\'s dry. What if Harlan\'s Holiday draws post 19? Is he still as strong?
I agree completely with you that it\'s hard to pick a horse in the Derby that you expect to move backwards off his last race. My biggest question is which of the horses comig off their new tops will continue to progress? They\'re not ALL gonna bounce, are they?
Someone already said this, you might not see the big monster super or tri. it will still be paying well. I think the wps and ex\'s are the bets to play in the derby. Just think about it, say the two fav\'s are 9-2 and 5-1 the payoff would be maybe 40.00 on up. The way i\'m going to play it is.... 150W about 140 in ex\'s i will put more on the horses i like in the ex\'s even the toss outs i will have atless a 1.00 or two on them. and 100.00 to show. Cause keying my horse in the 3rd spot with 19 other will put me over what i want to play. Pules if my horse comes in 1st or 2nd, the show will off-set one or the other.
TGJB,
This is a lot like one of those brain teaser puzzles: given the following statements, figure out which figure each horse ran in the Wood.
I don\'t see how to make those numbers add up. How could Sunday Break not move forward (i.e. only pair up) while still 2 others in the race also paired up and one went back only 3/4 of a point? If D\'Oro paired up or went back 3/4 of a point, then Sunday Break had to move forward (i.e., D\'Oro only finished 1/2 a length ahead of SB, he did not lose significantly more ground, he carried the same weight but he came into the race more than 3 points faster). If Saarland paired up or went back 3/4 of a point, then Sunday Break also had to move forward (i.e., Saarland finished 3 lengths behind SB, he did not lose more than 2 or 3 lengths in ground than did SB, he carried the same weight and he came into the race 2.5 points faster). Since D\'Oro and Saarland could not have both bounced (you said only 2 bounced and one of them was Buddah) then I just don\'t see how Sunday Break did not move forward in the Wood.
Where is the flaw in my reasoning? How about giving the solution to the brain teaser...
Thanks
Chris
I will say this.....if somebody actucally has a STRONG opinion on who to key in the Derby, please inform me and tell me your reasons. This year\'s Derby is one of the toughest races to handicap I\'ve ever seen, rivaling a typical BC Sprint. This is the main reason that I will not be a Harlan\'s Holiday fan on May 4 (or at least I won\'t be keying him).
I respect your opinions, Jim, despite the fact that you seem to get the goat of others in here. But it sounds like you kinda just ended up picking HH, without REALLY liking him. In fact, it almost sounds like you\'re trying to talk yourself into betting Essence Of Dubai, who certainly would be a bigger price and is a bit of a mystery.
Speaking of EOD, does anyone have any strong opinions regarding him, Johannesburg, or Castle Gandolfo? I do not buy into the media-driven theory that just because nobody has won the Derby without an American prep race it can\'t be done. It\'ll probably be done sometime and then we\'ll never hear about it again, similar to the way that Fusaichi Pegasus was being knocked heavily since favorites \"never\" win the Derby (and winners of the Wood Memorial, for that matter). He wins, then we don\'t hear any of that bullsh-- regarding Point Given or Congaree last year.
Anyway, I am interested in any strong opinions, whether they be from TG or Rag users. We all have the same goals, don\'t we?
Jerry you said, \"they forgot to split the 1 and 2 turns races\" I take it this is a big or little mistake. Why havnt they ever fixed it, or are they just hard-headed like that???
Man, would you all like to see or hear i should say a sit down with Jerry B. and Len F. them two going back and forth on fig. making???
It seems like to me, most people sides with either one because, they like JB or LF it seems like the figs doesnt really matter sometimes. I started out a rag user and went to TG cause of the on-line use and C. service. I\'ve had great scores using both of them. Here of late seems like TG has been moving forward to beter their product. Just seems funny how sometimes Rag figs will say the horse bounced 2 pts. and TG figs has that same horse moving 1/2 pt. forward That\'s what gets me thinking about the figs.
There was only one 2-Turn race on that day. Was the variant calculated on just the one race?
Looks like on the Beyer scale with weight and ground loss, Budda looked like he pair up his last race. M\'oro moved forward and Sarrland moved two pts forward and Sunday Break jump a good amount forward.
Has to be some bad info here. Of the six that finished Iwin (6th) had an inside trip but finished 25 lengths behind the top pair, so no way is he pairing up his last an 8.
According to the boss noone moved forward (big clue LOL)
I\'m guessing that this race came back ALOT slower than we (I) imagined. Blue Burner with his five wide trip on the 1st turn and a 3-4-5? wide 2nd turn ran 3/4 slower to a 3. He didn\'t pair up but a slight retreat.
A 3/4 retreat on SB makes no sense and a Medaglia would be a 3.25 which would make SB\'s wider trip faster than his 5.75. A 3/4 retreat on Saar makes BB\'s race much slower.
Buddha and Medaglia bounced, Sunday Break repeat 5.75 and Saarland with wider trips than SB repeats 3.25, just my stab at it.
N....E......X.....T LOL
Gvido
I would feel better doing this closer to the race, but I don\'t like Request for Parole off the break. It\'s a lot to ask a horse to come off this kind of break to run well at a longer distance than he\'s ever run. And he\'ll have to run his best to take these. I can see him on a ticket, but not on top.
Ditto Johannesburg. The other shippers are a headache.
Harlan\'s Holiday probably will look good, but not so much better as to justify the short price. If I learned anything last year, it\'s that if you\'re going to take a short price, he should look MUCH better than the others, and I don\'t think that will be the case here. Another who looks more like a saver than a main course.
I just don\'t know who I like on top yet. HP
Tim,
EOD will run well - all godolphin horses in the derby have performed as well as they could be expected to.
worldly manner, china visit and curule had no business being there on class and (especially) distance considerations yet all ran respectably (first six or seven, I think). in fact I think that on TG figures all three ran a new top in the derby - clearly the dubai trip was no problem.
(as an aside, express tour also did not stay and ran a monster race to beat street cry beforehand anyway that set him up for regression - I can\'t even remembered where, or if..., he finished).
if you project that historic improvement to EOD, consider that he has the right running style and that he is proven at the distance - you have a strong claim for minor honors at least (I mean impeachment and thunder blitz were hardly world beaters). Don\'t let him screw up your exotics, because he will.
He is not my key horse, top or bottom, because there are enough negatives - class question, the 2nd and 3rd placed in dubai are not world beaters and the fact that frankie may not stay to ride. But at a price for me he must be used.
Request for Parole is a big question mark for me also. All reports I\'ve heard is that he was completely wiped out after the Spiral, not eating properly, etc. It took him over a week to get back normal. This is why they passed on the Bluegrass. That, coupled with his running style, leads to believe he will not make the super on Derby Day. But on paper, his line does look pretty good.
I am still not convinced there is serious early speed in this race. Last year we had Balto Star, Songandaprayer, and Millenium Wind all who regularly ran BRIS E1 and E2 pace figures near 110. Thats why you saw a half in 46 last year. That type of horse does not exist this year, in fact the only contender to average E1 over 100 is War Emblem (Booklet is out, right?).
I also don\'t buy the comment about Dubai horses \"running their top\" in the derby. You have nothing to compare it to, really, for the the previous dubai horses. Of those who did have previous TG numbers, there were only a couple 2yr old numbers. For the most part, dubai horses do not have TGs for many of their races, so how can you call anything a top?
And to Jim, you talk about how great the sheets are doing this spring, yet you talk about the Derby in terms of Ragozin numbers. Now I see the reason for Jerry\'s skepticism. I really don\'t care what the Ragozin numbers look like, but I love hearing a good debate and I bet Jerry would like to talk more about which horses look different. So how about sharing those ragozin numbers, specifically I\'m interested in how HarlanHoliday, Buddah, MedagDoro, Saarland, and Perfect Drift look.
TG has commonly done an (estimated) figure for the big dubai races that precede the KD. It is on that basis that I made the comments about wordly manner etc etc.
I agree on the doubts over request for parole, the blue grass seemed easy for the money at stake, if that was the plan and you skip, the horse must have reacted pretty badly.
last year I thought TG had the wood too slow (same business about 1 and 2 turn etc etc). this year I find it hard to believe saarland ran a 3 point top and I\'d have to side with Jerry until I see the full TG numbers.
Remember in Animal House when they wrecked the car, and Tim Matheson said \"You ___ed up. You trusted us.\" Well, you made a bad assumption- that I was really paying attention when I wrote that. There were, of course, 7 horses that finished. I forgot Sunday Break, who did run a big new top. That\'s one of the reasons the figure is solid- if you do it the other way he gets an even bigger #, and the others who paired tops or went back a little got new tops- very unlikely.
Incidentally, one of those pairing his last was pairing an off race. I apologize for inducing brain cramps.
It\'s a dogmatic thing, and it\'s a big mistake- as far as I know they are the only serious figure makers who don\'t split sprints/routes as a matter of course.
I have attempted to have a dialogue with Friedman about figure making theory several times, both on their site(both under my own name and pseudonyms)and here. I have gone into the differences in great detail- you can find \"Figure Making Methodology\"(5/2/2000), and a whole series of posts following last years Breeders Cup(\"Texture Of The Track\", follow ups to that, \"Changing Track Speeds\" etc.)
Bad conclusions based on bad assumptions, which were my fault. See my post to Derby 1592.
Ultimately, yes. A related situation came up with the 2000 Wood- I went into great detail about it in \"Figure Making Methodology\", 5/2/2000.
Based on the comments, I guess the top three all score in the two and a half range, and Saar and BB in the three and a half range? Exactly how I would have scored it. Don\'t see the extra 1/8 of a mile helping the top three on Derby day though (given the four or five speed horses now in the mix)..........
Did Rags really rate the Wood as a brilliant race? I\'m not so sure, and am looking elsewhere for the Derby winner. (though I may still use Saarland if the track comes up fair... he simply has not been used yet)
Jerry you mean people dodn\'t know the difference when I say The Sheets?
Let it be known far and wide there is only one product called The Sheets and it is produced by Len Ragozin.
I didn\'t start this thread to compare the two products, but I won\'t shy away from it either. I started it to hear everyone\'s opinion and how they would rank their top 5.
Interesting how you never just want to talk about handicapping or opinions - it all has to come back to Ragozin for you. Have you told your therapist about this?
Life is good!!
\"Something Bad Happened to a Clown
written by Warren Zevon 1995 Zevon Music BMI
Every touch is measured out
Every word is written down
Sunny skies are seldom seen
In the land of few and far between
And everybody wears a frown
Someone lost their squirting rose
There\'s his red nose on the ground
No one\'s seen his painted smile
He\'s been gone for quite a while
Something bad happened to a clown
Something bad happened to a clown
He used to honk his horn and everyone would laugh
He used to honk his horn
She doesn\'t think he\'s very funny anymore
Footprints in the sawdust leading to the edge of town
Something bad happened to a clown
Something bad happened to a clown
He used to honk his horn and everyone would laugh
He used to honk his horn
She doesn\'t think he\'s very funny anymore
Footprints in the sawdust leading to the edge of town
Something bad happened to a clown
Something bad happened to a clown\"
All right lil\' bitch. I\'ve had enough of your s**t on this board. If you cannot offer a viable opinion regarding handicapping, why don\'t you hit the road. You\'ve got my email address, BRING IT ON. You couldn\'t handicap your way out the can. Let\'s not bother these fine people here with your useless jabs. Be happy to meet you at Churchill on Kentucky Derby. Be real happy to put you in your place.
Tim,
Thanks for the reply. Please understand that my rankings don\'t say a thing about how I\'d play the race. I don\'t be the favorite very often - at least not to win - especially in the Derby. I have Harlan\'s Holiday on top only because I think he deserves to be there, not because I want to bet on him.
I agree that if the track is wet, I won\'t look twice at Request for Parole. Good point about all the horses that are eligible to bounce. I think the key is to pick which horses are least likely to bounce and evaluate their chances/value accordingly.
Finally, thanks for pointing out that we all have the same goal here - to win and become better handicappers. This thread has had a lot of activity and I\'m happy about that. I was beginning to wonder if Mr. Jerry Bitter didn\'t have all the aliases here. But, it looks like we can have a good discussion (with the occasional whining from Jerry, which is expected) after all.
JB, you talk about Ragz methodology maybe being somewhat flawed here and there. What would happen if you somehow convinced him that you were right and he should adjust his methodologies somehow.
Wouldn\'t that screw up at least 4 years worth of data?
Wouldn\'t you then be comparing apples to oranges with newly adjusted numbers comparing to legacy numbers?
Wouldn\'t he then have to go back and spend countless man hours retesting all of his current thinking about patterns, etc?
Just curious how you would go about implementing changes into number calculations? Is it a regular occurence for you to continually tweak your numbers? I understand that you would always want to produce the most accurate number, but I\'m just wondering if it\'s feasible?
Treadhead,
It really isn\'t my place to give out the Ragozin numbers for the KY Derby. I gave my analysis, which is just like everyone else\'s, an opinion. I probably have it completely wrong or maybe I don\'t - who knows?
I\'m sure Jerry would love to discuss the number differences though. Of course he\'s very busy between posting here, on the Ragozin board, and doing making numbers for all the tracks, lol.
Life is great!!
Excitable Boy,
This is my last response to you. You offer nothing of any value here and are just another as_ kisser. If you feel like joining in the Derby discussion perhaps I\'ll reconsider. Until then, you are talking to your computer screen.
Jim you lost me, your a rag\'s user, right???
kevin - yes, I am, have been for about 10 years.
You know what? I don\'t blame you for not talking to me. After all, here I am acting just like a raggie; I am embarrassed. I never was and never will be though. I must have got caught up in the heat of your senseless rantings. My apologies to any I offended.
Now, who else does that... makes a list, but it\'s not really a pick... if it wins I\'ve got it, if it doesn\'t I\'ve got it...
There is a better chance that Ragozin will parachute into the infield on Derby day than be convinced to change by any kind of examples or logic. But if he did, it would be worth it for the satisfaction and the P.R. and yes, it would be a mess.
Geez Jerry, are you that dense?
I could say that you do it every week with your Race of the Week. Horses you continually post as weak, or throwouts, somehow become the TG horse because of one small comment. I think it\'s very funny.
I started this thread to hear everyone\'s opinion on the Derby. This is not a contest between the Sheets and your wannabe knock-off product.
I will not decide how to play the race until I see the odds before post. If you don\'t use the odds as a guide to your play, you are an even bigger loser than I thought.
In case you really don\'t know(which in your case is possible), we make a point in the intro of ROTW of saying that it\'s not a selection, and unlike Friedman, we don\'t take bows unless we actually hit an explicit play- \'95 Derby 3 horse box, tri pays $2000, \'98 Derby 4 horse box, tri pays $1000, 2000 BC turf 4 horse box, tri pays $4000, etc. The win plays we recommend have an odds guideline- win bet @ 5-1 or higher, etc.
Please keep posting- you are serving an invaluble function. When I tell people how Raggies behave and what they say I am often accused of making it up or overreacting. When we started this website 5 years ago I said one of the aims was to bring guys like you out from under the rocks and into the open. You are this year\'s poster boy.
Hey, what did you think of Young Guy\'s post? I\'ve just told you why we leave your posts up- why do you think your boys took his down?
Uhm Jerry??
One post you criticize me for only giving my opinion and not making a selection, saying \"who does this?\" The next post you say you do it in the ROTW. Too funny. You are a walking contradiction.
Keep at it Jerry. You are paranoid and don\'t know how to deal with someone like me. I never criticize your \"product\" at the track and I know the facts - not your version of them. So what rock am I hiding under Jerry? None unless you start calling me a liar again. If you do, be prepared to back it up this time.
Instead of acting like a jackas_, why don\'t you let it go and try to join in a normal conversation for once. Why must everything in your life come back to Ragozin? You are miserable and that is the root of it. The first step to healing is to admit your problem.
Excitable Boy,
It seems like you calmed down and admitted you were wrong, though your raggie comment makes your sincerity questionable. Your apology was warranted and nonetheless, is accepted.
Feel free to join in the Derby discussion - we would love to hear your opinion.
The fact that I even acknowledge you is what I apologized for and am apologizing for. I\'m still awaiting your email debate. But I guess you feel you garner more attention here. I found your last post to JB interesting. You seemed so genuine in caring about his well-being. Perhaps YOU should take the 1st step and admit YOUR problem. Then YOU can start to heal. And isn\'t that what this is all about = your self-esteem. So low. Oh so low. Poor guy.
It would be nice if you would stop the name calling. And how about some consistency to your comments? Oh, that\'s impossible for you; I forgot you\'re a raggie.
Although I suspect you may be that guy from California who made is own numbers and always told us which group of horses was gonna win.
Feel free to post and the rag site. Did they censor you too many times over there?
As for the Derby, I\'ve already cited I think Saarland has a legitimate shot. Particularly since the surgery. Perfect Drift looks to included in my exotics. Essence of Dubai might get in there too.
I can\'t see putting Harlan\'s at the top of the list or Came Home.
It\'s time now to see how they all work up to the race and fill out.
All this is fun to read. Like i said it really doesnt matter about the numbers right?? Their both good. Jerry don\'t you know of Rags user than make a living as well as TG users who does the same??
LGNB,
I\'m glad you\'re back on the derby. I do find it scary and somewhat worrysome that it seems like everyone is mentioning the same horses (are we simply just convincing each other and patting ourselves on the back?). at the prices offered, saarland, perfect drift and essence are the three runners I\'m most interested too win-wise (in that order). the post won\'t matter that much because of their style, so I\'ve been shopping around with a cool head.
Exotic wise, subject to making a call on harlans, in my opinion those 3 and any wood non-regressers will fill the top 2 spots. Unfortunately if sunday break makes it in, that\'s 6 horses - before harlans. the problem with tossing the wood contenders is that the one that does not regress will screw you (as has been pointed out before this can and has happened recently - e.g. charismatic non bounce, monarchos/inky looping back etc etc). At the prices, I\'ll go against all of them on the win but I\'m not going to have saarland get beat by medaglia and leave empty handed. In this context I don\'t care too much about the wood figure debate, you can make a case for regression for the wood big 3 on both set of numbers (maybe more bouncy on rags but I would not want to make a case for buddha and sunday break on TG numbers either. maybe on TG medaglia has one more pair-up (RFP tripled didn\'t he), but then again the seasoning comes into play too).
came home is a bet against for me - no way in top two. harlans is a slight negative call right now (regressing perhaps, who has he beaten of any note?, the bg was so-so, unless you\'re biased in which case you liked it even though it was slow, it took him a furlong to get past booklet and prado hit him 7 times), but I concede that there is a chance he will fire - 10 days for me to decide, professional help will help here. After all if the wood big 3 regress, came home and jo\'burg don\'t last, this derby won\'t take much winning.
Excitable Boy wrote:
>
> The fact that I even acknowledge you is what I apologized for
> and am apologizing for. I\'m still awaiting your email debate.
> But I guess you feel you garner more attention here. I found
> your last post to JB interesting. You seemed so genuine in
> caring about his well-being. Perhaps YOU should take the 1st
> step and admit YOUR problem. Then YOU can start to heal. And
> isn\'t that what this is all about = your self-esteem. So low.
> Oh so low. Poor guy.
>
> It would be nice if you would stop the name calling. And how
> about some consistency to your comments? Oh, that\'s
> impossible for you; I forgot you\'re a raggie.
>
> Although I suspect you may be that guy from California who
> made is own numbers and always told us which group of horses
> was gonna win.
>
> Feel free to post and the rag site. Did they censor you too
> many times over there?
>
> As for the Derby, I\'ve already cited I think Saarland has a
> legitimate shot. Particularly since the surgery. Perfect
> Drift looks to included in my exotics. Essence of Dubai might
> get in there too.
>
> I can\'t see putting Harlan\'s at the top of the list or Came
> Home.
>
> It\'s time now to see how they all work up to the race and
> fill out.
>
>
I will jump right in there right with you this fri. or sat. fastspeed when i get the TG sheets.
Well, well Excitable Boy, I guess you were being insincere after all.
You said:
\"My apologies to any I offended.\"
I found you quite offensive so I thought you were being sincere in your apology - I guess Jerry Bitter taught you well.
By the way, what e-mail debate are you talking about? I never said I wanted to debate anyone in e-mails. Frankly, you seem a bit too obtuse for me to waste my time.
If you insult me, I\'m going to insult you back. Anyone that treats me fairly, will have my respect and quite a nice and informative conversation. That\'s true for every post of mine on this board. How\'s that for consistency?
As for the name-calling? Does your term little b*tch ring a bell? Talk about being inconsistent. Congratulations, you have earned yourself another one-way ticket to Ignoresville.
Jim wrote:
>
> Well, well Excitable Boy, I guess you were being insincere
> after all.
>
> You said:
> \"My apologies to any I offended.\"
>
> I found you quite offensive so I thought you were being
> sincere in your apology - I guess Jerry Bitter taught you well.
>
> By the way, what e-mail debate are you talking about? I never
> said I wanted to debate anyone in e-mails. Frankly, you seem
> a bit too obtuse for me to waste my time.
>
> If you insult me, I\'m going to insult you back. Anyone that
> treats me fairly, will have my respect and quite a nice and
> informative conversation. That\'s true for every post of mine
> on this board. How\'s that for consistency?
>
> As for the name-calling? Does your term little b*tch ring a
> bell? Talk about being inconsistent. Congratulations, you
> have earned yourself another one-way ticket to Ignoresville.
Was only trying to show you how foolish that all is.
And I\'m sure you realize, if you\'re reading this, I am NOT ignored.
In my original analysis, I mentioned who I thought belonged at the top of the list. Now I\'d like to point out some of the horses I don\'t like and why. Some of these may not go - if you already know that to be the case, my apologies.
Ocean Sound - way too slow, ran a nice race on the turf, sprinting, in his 3YO debut though
Wild Horses - also too slow, don\'t think he can make a big enough move next time out
Came Home - don\'t like him for the Derby, but he could become an exceptional sprinter/miler
Sunday Break - should bounce to the moon, but I hope he runs a decent race and the last one didn\'t knock him out because I like him and think he\'ll be a really nice stakes horse
War Emblem - think he\'ll bounce, ran to one of my favorite patterns last out when he equaled his 2YO number the race before...you just knew he\'d be poised for a big effort in the IL Derby
Straight Gin - too slow and don\'t see him making a big enough move forward next out
Saarland - think will bounce and one of those that seems to run wide every time...he has a chance, but won\'t have my money on him for the top two spots
Holdthehelm - doesn\'t belong, very slow
Proud Citizen - don\'t know his last number, but I won\'t like him no matter what it is
Lusty Latin - not fast enough in my opinion
These will probably come back to bite me in the butt, but that\'s what this is all about, right?
\"Knowing\" is hard to pin down. I\'ve heard of one Raggie(Ernie), and my guess is there are others- they have a lot of customers. I do know of several who make a living using ours, notably a group in Chicago. As a general rule I don\'t know what my customers do, especially the on-line ones.
Finally!
No lies are slams to respond to today. Perhaps we can continue with a decent conversation here.
This Spring has, in the immortal words of Jimmy Walker, been DYNOMITE!!!
Life is f\'ing great!!