Did anyone else notice this? I just looked at the chart. He was 6:1 just before the load...and he closed as the 4.2:1 fave!!! Two full points, into literally the largest pool of the year, in that short a time. That is just..well...hard to imagine. And who was betting him? He was a huge bet against here and across the street. And the public would have already had all their cash in on him prior to the gate.
Not suggesting anything untoward, just wondering who were the big betters unloading on him at the last.
I was watching a race from Mountaineer last week. Horse is 27-1 as they load into the gate. He opens up a 5 length lead and viola!! He\'s 10-1 on the turn. Variables.....
\"Not suggesting anything untoward, just wondering who were the big betters unloading on him at the last\"
Phil,
Baffy has huge bettors in his circle, guess it was them,they got burnt. Mike Smith also telling people in Cali during the week that Bode had walked back from the Arkansas Derby with great energy,he was right.
Mike
I\'ll guess it was just the average pool dump at closing. He was a deserving favorite.
It would be better for the game and would draw more fans is you had fixed odds betting. Bet at 7-1, guaranteed payoff at 7-1. One less VARIABLE in a game full of VARIABLES to deal with.
Must be nice to see the first quarter of the race before you bet. If i had that luxury, i\'d be hard to beat.
Miff,
Thanks for info. Makes sense that Baffert would know some well healed folks.
Mountaineer pool and derby pool nowhere near the same.
That\'s just can\'t happen in parimutuel wagering.
Conditional wagering puts money in pools very late.
MO Wrote:
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> It would be better for the game and would draw
> more fans is you had fixed odds betting. Bet at
> 7-1, guaranteed payoff at 7-1. One less VARIABLE
> in a game full of VARIABLES to deal with.
Ah, futures. Ah, England. Ah, BetFair.
Futures are still moving targets up until the close of betting. Don\'t get what you mean by England and BetFair?
Conditional on the bettor seeing the first 1/8th of a mile no doubt.
it took $2 million to drop the odds from 6-1 to 4-1. not sure why this money was all late and not placed earlier. sounds like there could some past post bets
zayat stables nough said
Why doesnt somebody look into it. DRF, Bloodhorse, FBI. Fpr a sport that is often accused of being rigged, maybe this was another \"Place Lucky Dan\" type story.
I actually bet the horse first thing in the morning on Saturday because I thought it was a ridiculous price at 7-1. So where did this/these bets come from. Not who. Thats none of anyones business. Just identify a couple of.hot spots where $500,000 or more was dumped late and its and end of story.
The wise guys lost....remember.
If you had the advantage of seeing that first fraction, you wouldn\'t play the front-runner to win.
People who bet after the start don\'t think that way. They just bet the leader if that horse is clear and take their chances. They know they have a long run winning bet if they get to see the first eighth and just bet any horse who has a clear lead.
How do you know this?
Because when the odds drop, it always seems to be the horse who\'s on a clear lead. I just put 2 and 2 together.
This is absolutely true, this should be investigated. It shouldnt be hard to figure out where the largest bet came in. Most of the times, the biggest bettors are the smartest bettors....why would you wait till the last second to bet 500k on Bode and get 4-1 when you could drip drab the money in throught the betting cycles and still get your 500k to win and not knock down your own price nearly as much? The betting opened up with 90 mins to post, you could bet 6k every flash till post time and get your money down and that would be a much more efficient entry to the betting pools without \'scalping\' yourself at the end of the cycle.
Unless.....you waited to see the first 10 seconds of the race.
I\'d look into it....but, that\'s just me.
Plastic, I might be dumb but if they drib drabbed 500K in 6K increments over the course of 90 minutes the odds would have drib drabbed down over that time finally arriving at the same payout of 4-1. It doesn\'t matter if it\'s bet a little at a time or all at once. What matters is how much is finally bet on each horse as percentage of the total pool.
Not saying your suspicions aren\'t theoretically valid, but would this be the spot to bet millions at a stinking 4-1?
plasticman Wrote:
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> Because when the odds drop, it always seems to be
> the horse who\'s on a clear lead. I just put 2 and
> 2 together.
Hopefully some day you will come up with 4.
This statement is simply not true. You only notice because you see the first 4 horses, they are the only horses that have odds posted on the screen. You don\'t notice the horses further back. There are many instances where the odds change for horses farther back in the field.
If you put in a conditional wager for 0 MTP, just when do you think that money enters the pool?? I\'m not saying that it isn\'t possible people may be past posting, pools have been breached before (BC Pk 6), but you don\'t have any evidence people are betting after the race has started.
Many horsed that have this \"suspicious\" odds drop lose. Often. Every day.
I love your passion to defend the industry and suggest that all the tote systems are iron clad and cant possibly be infiltrated by even the greatest hackers in the world, but the racing industry that i know is sort of inept and lacks any kind of real leadership......horse racing betting pools arent exactly Scotland yard or fort knox. Im skeptical, the racing industry has given me reason to be that way.
If you have any evidence that the betting pools in the horse racing industry are the only thing that\'s not able to be \'gotten to\' by hackers (not to mention executives who have an \'open window\' for their friends and biggest customers) than i\'d love to listen. Im all ears.
plasticman Wrote:
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> I love your passion to defend the industry and
> suggest that all the tote systems are iron clad
> and cant possibly be infiltrated by even the
> greatest hackers in the world,
> If you have any evidence that the betting pools in
> the horse racing industry are the only thing
> that\'s not able to be \'gotten to\' by hackers (not
> to mention executives who have an \'open window\'
> for their friends and biggest customers) than i\'d
> love to listen. Im all ears.
Did you skip this part??
P-Dub Wrote:
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> I\'m not saying that it isn\'t possible people may
> be past posting, pools have been breached before
> (BC Pk 6), but you don\'t have any evidence people
> are betting after the race has started.
My \'evidence\' would be late odds drops on front runners. The question i was asking you was this. Do you have any evidence that the betting pools are NOT being breached? You seem to think that, for the most part, the industry is void of past posting, what makes you think that?
plasticman Wrote:
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> My \'evidence\' would be late odds drops on front
> runners. The question i was asking you was this.
> Do you have any evidence that the betting pools
> are NOT being breached? You seem to think that,
> for the most part, the industry is void of past
> posting, what makes you think that?
There are late odds drops on any number of running styles. You choose to only notice front runners.
Your \"evidence\" is late odds drops on front runners. The counter to that is the large amount of money dumped into the pools at the last moment due to conditional wagering.
Neither of us has any proof that it is or isn\'t happening. I\'m not in a position of authority to do anything about it, so I concentrate on what I can control. Finding winners and cashing tickets.
If it is happening, then those in a position to do something hopefully will. In the meantime, I\'m not going to lose sleep over a conspiracy theory.
Guy\'s,
Grow the F %$# up with this string. Your talking about a 1 1/4 mile race which maybe has had a half dozen coast to coast winners in 138 years not betting the pull on a half mile harness track!
Really,
FD
Frank could not agree more. Track Security for things like access to various locations (Turf Club, Paddock, etc) was almost Gestapo like. Regardless of who you were with (State Trooper), what you had in your hand (Turf Club walk-around) or what you were asking to do (walk up 15 steps).
Too think that these guys are clueless on what people are doing to them on the outside with Wagers, which is driving the whole operation, and the CREDIBILITY of the entire race is NUTS!!!
Were there probably some slips in the initial years of off-site wagering? I dare say yes. But there isnt anybody dumb enough now to think they could past post $1M on Bode and still think they are going to get paid. And if so it would not be in dollars but days in jail.....
Think many are missing the point here. Players have noted and pointed out a tremendous betting anomoly, almost unheard of given the pool size. Do you think that:
a) The Clueless Clowns responsible for pool integrity at CD even know it?
b) If they do, why not come and say something along the lines like:
\"Incidentally, we noted a very large wager on Bodemeister registered on the tote after the race had started. We want our patrons to know that the wager was placed before the race began and that systems and procedures to protect pool integrity are used at all CD venues\"
...the Clueless Clowns just don\'t get it.
Mike
If someone, or in this case, maybe a few hundred people, make bets just as the race is going off, of course the odds are going to change when the gate opens. It\'s not a \"real time\" system. Plus who knows how online bets are processed and how long that takes to update? I really don\'t think the bets are being made after the start of the race.
It would be good if there was a clear statement addressing this, but seeing the odds change after the gate opens does not surprise me. Especially since a lot of big players like to wait for the very last second.
HP
Silver Charm wrote:
\"Frank could not agree more. Track Security for things like access to various locations (Turf Club, Paddock, etc) was almost Gestapo like. Regardless of who you were with (State Trooper), what you had in your hand (Turf Club walk-around) or what you were asking to do (walk up 15 steps).
Too think that these guys are clueless on what people are doing to them on the outside with Wagers, which is driving the whole operation, and the CREDIBILITY of the entire race is NUTS!!!\"
This is what makes it so easy to investigate things like this at tracks across the country. Just hire somebody to visit every racetrack and walk up some steps.
Rich you lost me there.
Miff and HP I agree with both of you. Miff I said so much above with my tongue in cheek reference to last scene from \"The Sting\".
And to both of your points what cause this things to create more suspicion when it looks like a last second \"Al Gore vote drop in Broward and Palm Beach County\" when the other guy was prematurely declared the winner.
After the other guy was prematurely declared the winner......wink!
>>You only notice because you see the first 4 horses, they are the only horses that >>have odds posted on the screen. You don\'t notice the horses further back. There >>are many instances where the odds change for horses farther back in the field.
We have pari-mutual betting. Any time the odds change on one horse, the odds must change on all horses.
Yes, a horse at 50-1 isn\'t going to show much of a change on the tote in a big pool. But it does in an average track pool daily. If we displayed odds in single digits rather than the grossly averaged way we do now, big moves at the last minute would be clearly more apparent, when a horse drops from 1.80 to 1.50 (a huge move in a big pool)
If we stopped betting five minutes to post, the odds would still change the exact same way they do now down to post time. We are using different computer systems to funnel multiple local pools, ADW pools, international pool, etc., into the final odds construction.
Yes, I know there have been documented incidences of past-posting.
In all seriousness, Why don\'t one of you guys write up a short synopsis, and send it off to Joe Drape? I\'d rather seem him attack this than what he does now.
FrankD. Wrote:
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> Guy\'s,
>
> Grow the F %$# up with this string. Your talking
> about a 1 1/4 mile race which maybe has had a half
> dozen coast to coast winners in 138 years not
> betting the pull on a half mile harness track!
>
> Really,
>
> FD
You might want to settle the F %$# down.
The string isn\'t about just the Derby, its just the latest example.
Can your condescension.