I\'m afraid to even post these picks because A) I know some people follow my stuff and B) This is the most difficult Derby I\'ve capped in 15+ years. I can\'t remember the last time I went into Saturday morning without any conviction at all. In all honesty, I think you could put the names of all 15 horses in the hat and randomnly draw and have a shot at cashing big.
My biggest key will be Rousing Sermon, who I will be betting WPS as well as him being the main cog in my exotics. It\'s been 5 months since he first ran his TG 4, he\'s since gone Pair-Off-Pair over speed favoring Santa Anita and a super-highway rail at the Fair Grounds (where he was wide all around). He has looked fabulous over the CD surface this week and it appears to me that he\'s ready to explode forward again with 5 weeks rest into this one. Jerry Hollendorfer has been huge over the Churchill surface the past couple years. His shippers to CD have run a top 27% of the time. Jose Lezcano also has been fabulous here with 6 winners out of 17 mounts, including the fast closing Ice Box in 2010.
There\'s so much pointing here towards a new top and figure in a decent trip (atleast ground-saving wise), I cannot ignore this animal at 40 to 50-1.
Here\'s a few that I\'m not particularly fond of:
Dullahan - Already has improved 6 points from his 2 year old top and the likelyhood of anaother jump up (which will be needed), on a surface that may not be his most preferred, with only 3 weeks rest, seems pretty long to me. He is an underlay to me at where it looks like he\'ll be going off at.
Creative Cause - There are so many negatives floating with this one, he\'s just too difficult to touch. I do not trust Mike Harrington any more than I could throw him. First he isn\'t a good trainer to begin with, and second, the zero sucked the wind out of this animal. Joel Rosario has laid a goose-egg on this track. Too many red flags for me.
Alpha - I really wanted this one to come in without a problem, because he could have moved forward here in this spot, but the infection treatment has proved detrimental in the past and likely will here.
Hansen - A pair up might not be enough and I have big questions about this one getting 1 1/4. If he catches his dream trip, sitting on Trinniberg\'s flank clicking off modest fractions, he\'ll be there, but I\'m nowhere near willing to bet that\'ll happen.
To me the best looking patterns remaining are Union Rags, Gemologist, Take Charge Indy, El Padrino, Daddy Nose Best, and Sabrecat. I\'m not thrilled with Bode entering in here with a huge fig off 3 weeks rest, but I\'ll probably use him in there somewhere.
Again, this is the most ridiculous Derby I can ever remember handicapping. I am not super confident in my analysis, but I just decided to make a stand with RS, roll with it, and hope I get my trip. If I were you I wouldn\'t change my Derby plans from this post.
Interesting, the Oaks winner was coming off a FG prep, too, and RS was 5 wide in the SA prep and 4 wide at FG. But all of his success has been in Cal-bred races so I have to discount him on class and he\'s been beaten by the \"other\" Baffert horse Liason twice so if you like him you\'d better include the 20 horse also in your bets.
Eh, the Cal-bred stuff is irrelevant to me. I\'m looking at his speed. For me it comes down to the fact that only one other horse in the field was faster than this one at 2 Years Old. That would be Union Rags. To get 40, 50-1 on the 2nd fastest two year in the race, coming into this one off a pair seems like a good value deal to me. It\'s a good bet that this one is going to get to 0 (or negative figs) sometime this year, and I don\'t see why it can\'t happen Saturday.
So what do you do with the 20? Include him underneath?
Why use the 20? His best is a 5, and is coming off a bad effort. I expect a much improved effort (he has looked fantastic this week). I wouldn\'t be shocked a bit if he ran a 3 or 4 here, but even if he fired a 0 (pretty unlikely), he doesn\'t have tactical speed and is going to lose ground all the way around.
I am a fan of him later this summer though. I think he could run some low figs at a big price down the road.
Baffert/Garcia is at least as good an angle as Hollendorfer/Lezcano and if you\'re going to bet a 50-1 horse over another 50-1 horse my money would be on the Baffert even if it\'s post 20 and a TG point slower. You\'ve convinced me, the 20 is going to be in my bets underneath Gemologist.
I\'m glad I could help.
Good luck tomorrow Sekrah always fun to banter on this board
Excellent post sekrah which sums thing up nicely.
I was leaning toward using Dullahan for the reasons explained in my earlier post, but all I heard yesterday from the CD clockers was how poorly he\'s been doing at CD, as in changing leads at the wrong time, profusely sweating during gallops, etc., so he\'s off my ticket, which leaves me, by process of elimination, with Hansen, Rousing Sermon, and Daddy Nose Best.
Given the weather and his off/distance pedigree, I guess it makes sense to substitute TCI, but whether it\'s the fact that he beat me out of a big score in the Fla Derby or the fact that he seems to need a lead he isn\'t going to get, I\'m having trouble not thinking that he\'s one of those horses I\'d be using as insurance against the idea of feeling stupid if Calvin rides the rail and does it again.
So, again using the process of elimination, I\'ll probably use Gemologist for no reason other than my theory than until a horse loses, it\'s hard to say for sure how good he actually is.
Good Luck.
BOL Sekrah, Im still waffling between using WTDW and El Padrino as keys, I hate the on-track reports of El Padrino, but probably should just ignore them.
The biggest bomb I\'m looking at is Prospective, who is taking the Tampa route that has been wildly successful for longshots in the past.
Any thoughts on the undercard? I\'m loving the looks of the 5 in the 4th (based on both number power, but more breeding), 5 in the 9th (needs a small forward move but has plenty of pace), and either Brilliant Speed and/or Doubles Partner to make a big breakthru in the WR Turf.
Clockers last year had similar reports on Dullahan\'s work and gallops(minus the sweating of course)prior to his run in the Breeders Cup Juvenile.
His race there was pretty much in line with his effort in the Futurity at Keeneland.Given that I\'m gonna go say he can pair his Bluegrass or improve with an added furlong and possibly more pace to run at.
I\'d prefer the clockers loved what they were seeing the last couple weeks but then he\'d be closer to 6-1.He may end up being a much better horse on poly/grass but I\'m not convinced yet.Probably will be after today though since I\'m playing him on top.
Good Luck
Dullahan and Rousing Sermon have similar running styles and will get pretty much the same trip. Dull has the better pattern, but if you like Dullahan in the exotics you have to play RS as well, with those odds.
Strange that you guys would be hearing that. What I have been hearing is DUL looks great in his gallops. Not sure which clockers you are talking to. My undertanding is his work was a little sub par and he did not seem to handle the dirt. Tried to do everything from his back end and the ground just sort of broke away beneath him. But as far as gallops go, I hear he looks like a good thing.
I\'ve got him figured and plan to bet him as a minor player at best.
You\'re moving the line Sek. Now RS is bet down to 34-1.
I expect the lines to move quite a bit from yesterday. The pool was pretty small. 30-1 on El Padrino?? That ain\'t gonna happen.
I am all over the one in the one 9th at 30-1, hoping he can squeeze out one more little move.
3.8 million in the pool right now and EP is 27-1
Yep, he\'s not going anywhere.
And as far as the track goes, I remember last BC day, all the idiot apologists and syncophants for the track, claiming it would dry out and it was the best track to get dry quick in the land. Well it did not. Not even close. At best it was \"drying out\" but still deep and close to muddy.
So here\'s mine, horse by horse.
Daddy Long Legs: he would win here if there were 19 Little Chappys in the race. Unfortunately for the sheiks they already had their shot at that bogus contender.
Optimizer: next year I hear D. Wayne will wear a saddle on his own back if that\'s what it takes to get into the Derby.
Take Charge Indy: his strongest race was the loss to El Padrino...I view his Fla Derby as a regression...he got a super speed favoring track that day and beat horses who were questionable in here or who are not here. Plus I don\'t think down inside and a 1w1w trip is the place to be at CD, where the track super announced his retirement NEXT year. Don\'t compare this one to Super Saver unless it rains and this track is the same as that year. At the very bottom of verticals, if he gets there at all.
Union Rags: his best are right up there, but his last was a regression. Doesn\'t give me a lot of confidence anywhere but on the bottom of a vertical ticket. Plus there\'s the matter of pedigree, which is weak in this field even if his physique is perfect.
Dullahan: most likely too slow on dirt. Maybe he bumps up to a vertical ticket, but I don\'t see it and I think Kent squeezed the lemon really hard at Keeneland....three weeks ago. Yikes.
Bodemeister: his numbers put him on the ticket, but not on the top. I really don\'t buy the Ark Derby number...don\'t think he\'s a War Emblem. Sorry.
Rousing Sermon: too slow. Excellent candidate to join the ranks of hundreds who run somewhere from 10th to 20th. Just as the TG analysis pointed out yesterday that Larry Jones had a bad Churchill record (excuse me), too many people are pointing to Jerry H\'s great Churchill record. We all regress to the mean in life and then we die. This one\'s dead.
Creative Cause: showed the numbers to compete until the last race. It has been pointed out here that IAH regressed and won the SA Derby, so what does that say about this colt\'s effort in that race? I can\'t play everyone, so this guy gets dropped off a serious regression.
Trinniberg: God, I wish he was my horse. He would stay at home. That\'s not saying he won\'t carry his game a lot further than many here think he will. He just won\'t be around at the end.
Daddy Nose Best: that was a breakout effort at Sunland and it would be competitive here if he can repeat it. I am betting that he won\'t, second time on dirt. And Gomez is currently riding like a slug and Julien thought he had a better shot with Union Rags and so on.
Alpha: competitive on all his races. Don\'t like Maragh here, but you toss this guy at your peril.
Prospective: too slow on all surfaces.
Went the Day Well: what can I say? For years I\'ve watched people who won the Derby struggle to find a reason to come back the next year. This horse provides Team Valor a good reason, but will lightning strike twice? I don\'t think so and will leave him off.
Hansen: you have no faith guys. I would toss him if I was sure that his last was a regression, but I\'m not. It was by far his best poly effort, including those visually monster wins at Turfway. I can\'t take the chance that he won\'t run back to his best on dirt, which is good enough and he gets the catbird seat...the controlling speed on the outside.
Gemologist: my future book bet. I like him a lot. His number\'s right there. He drew the post I hoped for. If he has another forward move in him, he wins this easily. If not, so I lose.
El Padrino: maybe had one of the best races of any of these, three back. Regressed, but not that much and held the regression level over two races. Gotta use him in the mix.
Done Talking: too slow.
Sabercat: too slow.
I\'ll Have Another: I view the SA Derby as a small regression, but don\'t see him being fast enough to win from a disadvantageous post. Just don\'t see it.
Liaison: I honestly don\'t know what the hell this one is doing here, other than the fact that there might have been an empty slot on the plane they used to fly in Bode and their other Churchill entries. Pass.
Contenders: Alpha, Hansen, Gemologist.
Behind them: Union Rags, Bode, El Padrino.
Maybe on the vertical ticket only: Take Charge Indy.
9-2 is a fair price on UR. Much the best last year. Gone West/Nijinsky on bottom makes him a decent bet to get the distance. Good works, looks tighter than he did 5 weeks ago when putting up the \'2.25\'. Flying mud an issue, but Julian\'s the right jock to work out the trip from the 4 hole. UR rates and pounces.
I liked Dull more before the track turned into speedway, but he also drew well with speed/stalkers on both sides. Has the genes to get the distance, and put in a good stretch run in the key BC Juvy. Don\'t love Kent D, but he certainly knows this race.
Been a big Bode fan since Feb, but the added pressure up front is a pretty big risk.
Key Union Rags, use Dull.
I\'m sticking to my guns. Hansen win and place, exacta box with Gemologist.
Good luck and safe trips to all.
Gemologist to win, playing him over Take Charge Indy, Union Rags, Alpha and El Padrino
My keys are Take Charge Indy and Gemologist
Bias, hot touts, Twinspires, clockers, workouts - be cursed! All nonsense I tell ya! We miss Chuckles!
The Wall Street Journal agrees with you P-DUB.
MO Wrote:
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> I\'m sticking to my guns. Hansen win and place,
> exacta box with Gemologist.
>
> Good luck and safe trips to all.
I agree with MO on Hansen. He is my key. I am using El Padrino, Union Rags, and Take Charge Indy as my primary contenders.....for the superfectas....some interesting longshots i am including...Optimizer, Trinniberg, and Liaison.
P-Dub Wrote:
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> My keys are Take Charge Indy and Gemologist
Good luck.
I may be kicking myself in a couple of hours Michael because I pretty much concur about Union Rags, including that the 9/2 is fair. But it\'s so easy to see him getting jammed up in the first turn or going 5W late, that I just can\'t pull the trigger on it. Instead, I\'m just scaling this back to a smallish Derby bet, using Rags, but making Sabercat my \"jump up\" key. Good luck, all!
Same here. I have both to win, an exacta box & the I have each of the 2 in saver exactas on top & bottom with Union Rags, Rousing Sermon, Daddy Long Legs & El Padrino. For my Tris, I boxed them with Union Rags & then took a 50 cent tri box on those 2 with every horse except Creative Cause.
taking the bomb El Padrino off the hidden race & odds, can\'t ignore.
I agree with UNION RAGS. In fact it takes some nontraditional handicapping methods to go against this colt. Odds aside he looks like a very potential triple crown threat and with a clean trip today, always an issue, this venue, this race, should outkick these.
From a TG standpoint he was faster as a juvenile than most of these can run with a 2 in the breeders cup. Cappers everywhere point out his bad ride in the Fla derby when the boy had no choice, yet ignore the incredible butcher job by the jock last time at Churchill. Expect a negative number here with the hot pace, as it will take that to win!
Physically this colt has blossomed and could not be doing any better and is a man among boys. Beat him and wear the roses.
On the vertical side of the fence it is more of a case on who i do not like. In no particular order, but with regard to ones taking some money; Dullahan will be 25 out of it and must avoid the pace collapse. No thanks. \"Bode\" will not like the pace, the short rest and the huge weight pick up, Hansen can\'t get ten panels in the back of a sallee van and Trinnenberg who cannot get ten furlongs in the front of the same van.
Creative Cause has a foot and Harrington cleverly worked him on the fence so he could not get off the pain, if right, on the board as a pure race horse, El Padrino need only improve a touch to be right there at fat numbers and is at three times the price of Gemologist who figures and both will be used. Daddy Nose Best gets Gomez and could not be doing any better. Either Take Charge Indy with a fence trip or I\'ll have another with a wide on could sneak into the super. The others are box seat horses as i see it. BBB
Dull on top for me.
Using mostly UR,TCI,GEM,SABER underneath with a little DNB and El Pad mixed in.
I\'ll Have Another, followed up with Alpha. I think Twinspires accepted my wager, but I\'m not sure, obviously. Enjoyed reading, lurking here for the last five years...good luck to all.
Gonna have to hope they blaze it up in front. I\'m playing Sabercat. It looks like Asmussen wanted to have this horse run best 3rd race off the layoff and took it easy wthout the pressure of making earnings. Moving forward in every race and would have gotten second behind Bode in the Ark if Secret Circle didn\'t drift all over the track and take away his path..Gonna goo with this bomb and Hope I can pull it off...
Good luck everyone.
Take Charge Indy, Union Rags, Bodemeister, Creative Cause, Gemologist behind and around him...