http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/CD050412USA11.pdf
Virtually NO movement by anyone last 2 calls, and very little movement last 3 calls. Speed favoring track.
There were two reasons I didn\'t hit the Oaks...which busted three p3s and potentially the Oaks Derby double for me.
Reason One: the fact that Velasquez was one of the few guys at the place who didn\'t notice that nobody was winning along the inside of the track all day....when he went to the front closest to the rail I announced I was ready to tear up my ticket on him. (and anybody who writes here that the filly didn\'t want two turns, please try watching the race objectively...she was perfectly ok at the distance.)
Reason Two: The TG analysis was perfect except for totally dissing the winner...she was one of my three picks a week ago and I dumped her stupidly because I bought the dis. My bad.
I\'m guessing the track will play similarly tomorrow. I\'ld love to hear if Jerry would make any modifications in his analysis with that potentiality in mind.
Personally, I would not read into that too much as being a track bias. 3/4 of that field was horses who won their races on the lead, no fewer than 10 horses in that field contained a previous running line of mostly \"1s\". More than anything else, it may have been the factor of the ones not able to get to the lead being paralyzed mentally because they did not and were stuck in so much company.
In all fairness, the \"Most likely winner\" ran as expected and missed by less than a length. BYC looked totally outmatched on TG and with Jones\' record @ CD you couldn\'t have played the winner with any confidence. That said, Mike Welsh had been gushing over the winner all week on her morning activity. I did not play her.
If the track plays like this tomorrow, I think Gem is in the garden spot with his draw and will play the Derby accordingly. I hope the lump on JJ\'s cheek doesn\'t adversely affect his aerodynamics:-)
Good luck to all tomorrow
Notice, I did not say anything about a \'dead rail,\' but race after race you had to be watching, as did I, some pretty good and highly rated horses going nowhere if they were racing on the inside. And some fast horses who got hung up on the outside, Contested and BYC for example, looked like they could have run all day in the middle of the track, despite losing ground. Broadway\'s Alibi wasn\'t just the most likely to win in the Oaks, she should have won. Of all the great rides Velasquez has made in his career...and there have been many....this was not one of them.