DD WILL PAYS OAKS DERBY DOUBLE
Here are the numbers with the winner and what they would have been with Grace Hall. Estimated derby odds based on these ratios are below assuming favorite is 4-1. Don\'t pay attention to the bottom as they don\'t go off that long. Main use of this is not to say what the odds are likely to be but to figure out how the crowd is likely to bet the race. Looks like Dul is going to be 4th betting choice.
(edit) sorry, this doesn\'t post very well. Sequence is Derby horse, post, DD will pay with 9, DD will pay with 2, Est Derby Odds off 2, Est Derby Odds off 9.
DD DD EST DERBY EST DERBY
DERBY with 9 with 2 WITH 2 WITH 9
UR 4 104 14 4 4
BOD 6 138 22 6.3 5.3
GEM 15 169 30 8.6 7.7
DUL 5 185 38 10.9 9.4
CC 8 194 44 12.6 11.4
DNB 10 241 60 17.1 15.6
ALP 11 268 66 18.9 19.1
TCI 3 308 78 22.3 21.7
HAN 14 331 78 22.3 23.9
IHA 19 365 95 27.1 24.6
WTD 13 433 114 32.6 32.2
EL 16 468 130 37.1 35.2
SAB 18 838 223 63.7 66.5
DDL 1 894 227 64.9 68.0
TRIN 9 1120 353 100.9 81.3
OPT 2 1207 289 82.6 108.7
RS 7 1218 298 85.1 83.3
PRO 12 1294 366 104.6 90.5
DON 17 1367 382 109.1 110.5
LIA 20 1612 402 114.9 128.7
Great stuff. Thanks for crunching the numbers.
Did you mention Dullahan as 4th choice cuz he is your first choice? He is my pick for a few reasons: 1) the surface issue is not unlike the question marks on Animal Kingdom last year-I think he should handle CD just fine. 2)Three weeks rest should also not be an issue-he was pawing the ground after his gallop the other day and feels good-I lean more to fresh horses in the Belmont, and like recency in the Derby. 3) Even if a speed duel doesn\'t develop, several jocks will move too soon in their excitement-I think Kent D. is the perfect jock for this horse. Now I AM concerned by the speed favoring surface today as pointed out by MO. 4) Dullahan\'s last eighth of 11.3 after being unprepared at the start point him out as being closer hopefully and having a lot left at the finish.
I hope your projection of 9-1 stands correct, which seems fair to me.
No. Just wanted to point out that DUL was 4th choice. He is the picture of health right now and ready to run a great race. But I didn\'t like his last workout and have doubts about how much he likes the CD surface. Different surface and I would love him. But here, minor player at best for me and I am going to play it that way with conviction and hope it\'s right.