Curious what some may think. I keep hearing all the talk about the hot pace and all the speed in this year\'s Derby. Maybe I\'m way off base here, but I just don\'t see it that way. Trin is the most likely pacesetter on paper. But I\'ve seen him rate and run 47 to the half in 7F sprints. He doesn\'t strike me as the type that is going to run off in 45 or 44 and change just because. In fact, I think Hansen is more likely to try to run off than Trin. So maybe, and I mean maybe, these two hook up and get locked in a duel. But the connections are fully aware that it\'s tough to go wire to wire in Louisville at 1 1/4. I can\'t see them saying, \"Let\'s break on top and try and take this.\" And they have been training these colts to harness speed.
The rest of these are all pressers or mid pack stalkers. Gem, Iha, Cc all can rate. Even Bode has sat just off the pace and trains as if he can rate.
So I don\'t see how this has to be a fast pace. I think it will be honest. And sure, never know when two are going to run off but that doesn\'t mean the 5 right behind them will. What am I missing here?
I have Trinni in front at the first call in his last five. Only the Aqueduct race went slower than 45.55 for the half - and in that last one, they were running into a strong headwind while making an easy lead with no pressure. He won\'t be able to relax here. As per the TG pace notes, there is some speed to his inside too - in addition to Hansen outside. Blinkers off look to have slowed him down, but not that much. There\'s only so much a jock can do
I expect .46 for the half. Or, at least I hope so given my bets.
Hi AJ,
That day at AQ Silverette went 47.59 to the half in a MDSPWT 6.5F. Next race went 45.96 to the half in a MDSPWT 1M, next race went 46.48 to the half in MDSPWT NY Breds 6.5F, ALWN1X went to the half in 46.89 in a 1M, Broadway\'s Alibi wired the Comely going 47.25 to the half at 1M, and Trinni went 47.41.
What that would seem to say to me is that Trinni went as fast as he had too to get the lead. So how fast does he have to go in Louisville?
The answer to me is, he had to go as fast the others make him go. With HAN being the other main speed, and the connections clearly hoping to get him to slow down early, I just don\'t see it being that fast. And if HAN is rank and Trinni goes with him, to me that doesn\'t mean the others will go to. That\'s how I see it anyway. But I appreciate your thoughts.
I agree with Jellish. I feel like its a Funny Cide type yr where the pace looked fast but it wasnt.
Wow, so far the consensus is not that fast a pace. Here\'s what I wrote & sent to friends after looking over the pace figures from DRF, agreeing that the pace isn\'t going to be what it\'s being hyped up to be:
Question: What's the biggest myth about this year's Derby? Answer: The race is jammed with speed like the Oaks and you have to look for closers. That myth is all because sprinter Trinniberg is expected to wing it on the front end and set a ridiculous pace, but guess what-Trinniberg is a total non-factor in the outcome. Trinniberg MAY go out there. If he does, all it means is he'll be racing by himself and they'll just wait for him to come back to them. He may never see the lead and if that happens Bodemeister could very well find himself on an easy lead like in the Arkansas Derby. If Trinniberg does the expected and does wing it, the big advantage in this race is to the pace prompters, the horses with natural speed that will swoop down on Trinniberg and then have the race to themselves. See, the closers will be too far back to mount a serious challenge. That basically leaves the race winner to 1 of 3 horses-Gemologist, Bodemeister, or Take Charge Indy. Hansen might be around, but I don't see him making the distance, and if he runs pace figures like his last two, he'll be one of the ones too far back as well. One of the aforementioned 3 will gut it out to the wire and maybe a horse like Union Rags will get a spot somewhere in the 2-4 range. Anyone who thinks someone will come from the clouds and win this late like Giacomo in 2005 has reached a different pace conclusion than I have.
You may be right. But if those two do go, I\'m not sure the rest will let them run free. I\'m trying to think of a hot-paced derby where the second tier was more than three lengths back, and I\'m coming up empty.
Great discussion.
When Trinniberg first was announced as entering the field, I figured he might be 30:1, based on his good TG figs. It\'s become apparent that that is not going to be the case. The public is going to let him go at double that it seems, and perhaps even higher.
I know he\'s never been two turns and that there is other speed. But if this horse is something crazy like 70:1 (or god forbid even triple digits...although the last few years since MTB, it seem there are no super huge longshots anymore), I\'m going to be making a not insubstantial bet on him.
A choice between Trinn and Bode, I take Bode every time. Trinn won\'t make the distance, and no way will he run loose on the lead into the screaming canyon that is the home stretch comfortably all by himself.
Bode will.
Yep, I kind of feel insane even suggesting it. Just getting freaked out by what his price could be.
I agree - but hey, $5 win on him could probably cover the $500 you bet on everyone with a better chance
mjellish Wrote:
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> Curious what some may think. I keep hearing all
> the talk about the hot pace and all the speed in
> this year\'s Derby. Maybe I\'m way off base here,
> but I just don\'t see it that way. Trin is the
> most likely pacesetter on paper. But I\'ve seen
> him rate and run 47 to the half in 7F sprints. He
> doesn\'t strike me as the type that is going to run
> off in 45 or 44 and change just because. In fact,
> I think Hansen is more likely to try to run off
> than Trin. So maybe, and I mean maybe, these two
> hook up and get locked in a duel. But the
> connections are fully aware that it\'s tough to go
> wire to wire in Louisville at 1 1/4. I can\'t see
> them saying, \"Let\'s break on top and try and take
> this.\" And they have been training these colts to
> harness speed.
>
> The rest of these are all pressers or mid pack
> stalkers. Gem, Iha, Cc all can rate. Even Bode
> has sat just off the pace and trains as if he can
> rate.
>
> So I don\'t see how this has to be a fast pace. I
> think it will be honest. And sure, never know
> when two are going to run off but that doesn\'t
> mean the 5 right behind them will. What am I
> missing here?
I don\'t think the issue is necessarily how fast they go out, as opposed to WHO goes out. If Trin is not hustled out of the gate, Mike Smith has to avoid being trapped down inside. He has to fire if he sees that happening. If Trin fires, however, Smith may have the option of easing off the rail to track him in the next path. Two very different scenarios.
If Hansen gets sent with purpose, which I doubt given what he showed in the Gotham, then both Bode and Trin will be compelled to pick it up in order to avoid getting caught in a bunch.
You may not see a super quick first quarter. You may be looking at a very fast half mile after that.
I believe the pace scenario is: Trinniberg probably runs with the real pacesetters Hansen & Take Charge Indy. Trinniberg is done after 6F and finishes last. What is not so obvious is who is ABLE TO press the pace of Hansen and/or Take Charge Indy. EL Padrino handled TCI when TCI had to go fast in the GP allowance. And of course Union Rags has pressed both Hansen & TCI. Once missing by a head in BC Juvenile and in FL Derby he just never had a chance to run blocked as he was.
Bodemeister success has been the strength of his last fractions but he has never run near as fast or a pressured pace as either TCI or Hansen. If Bodemeister runs with Hansen and TCI he will be an also ran just like them. If Bode can be comfortable coming from 5th or 6th place he has a real chance based on his late speed which is better than most of the so-called closers. But that is iffy because it would be new behaviour lengths behind the pacesetters.
None of the three pace factors(TCI, Hansen, Bode) are dominant enough to shake loose and last. That leaves Union Rags & EL Padrino who will run past the speed. The closers are Daddy Long Legs and Alpha.
However, only one is really bred for the 1 1/4 - Alpha, He joins Union Rags and/or EL Padrino late. Creative Cause is also likely to get the distance and has never run a bad race.
If Hansen and TCI throttle back and choose to press Bode then Bode becomes a contender with Union Rags/EL Padrino.
Gemologist is not fast enough to be in front and doesn\'t have enough late speed to run down those in front of him.
Derby Fever Is Fun!
Tavasco Wrote:
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> I believe the pace scenario is: Trinniberg
> probably runs with the real pacesetters Hansen &
> Take Charge Indy. Trinniberg is done after 6F and
> finishes last. What is not so obvious is who is
> ABLE TO press the pace of Hansen and/or Take
> Charge Indy. EL Padrino handled TCI when TCI had
> to go fast in the GP allowance. And of course
> Union Rags has pressed both Hansen & TCI. Once
> missing by a head in BC Juvenile and in FL Derby
> he just never had a chance to run blocked as he
> was.
>
> Bodemeister success has been the strength of his
> last fractions but he has never run near as fast
> or a pressured pace as either TCI or Hansen. If
> Bodemeister runs with Hansen and TCI he will be an
> also ran just like them. If Bode can be
> comfortable coming from 5th or 6th place he has a
> real chance based on his late speed which is
> better than most of the so-called closers. But
> that is iffy because it would be new behaviour
> lengths behind the pacesetters.
>
> None of the three pace factors(TCI, Hansen, Bode)
> are dominant enough to shake loose and last. That
> leaves Union Rags & EL Padrino who will run past
> the speed. The closers are Daddy Long Legs and
> Alpha.
>
> However, only one is really bred for the 1 1/4 -
> Alpha, He joins Union Rags and/or EL Padrino late.
> Creative Cause is also likely to get the distance
> and has never run a bad race.
>
> If Hansen and TCI throttle back and choose to
> press Bode then Bode becomes a contender with
> Union Rags/EL Padrino.
>
> Gemologist is not fast enough to be in front and
> doesn\'t have enough late speed to run down those
> in front of him.
>
> Derby Fever Is Fun!
I don\'t see TCI as a need the lead type. Breaking from Post 3, he can break alertly, secure position, and tuck in behind the first flight. IMO, those would be Triniberg, Hansen, and Bodemeister. In virtually every race, these 3 horses are either on the lead or pressing the leader. Hansen and Triniberg have strong pace numbers - at least on the ones I use - and should be in front of TCI around the first turn.
Yes, they are trying to get some of these to rate. I just don\'t know if you can get some of these young and relatively lightly raced colts, in front of 150K screaming fans, to settle and rate if their natural style is to go to the front. Hansen and Bode seem, at least to me, as horses that want to be right up front. Triniberg obviously too.
TCI set the pace in the Fla Derby because nobody else wanted it. He has shown an ability to stalk and rate just off the front runners in the past. I see Borel using his natural speed to secure a ground saving trip, making his move around the far turn, and being a major factor down the stretch.
You mentioned pedigree. Who in this race has a better pedigree than TCI?? Several have excellent pedigree, and TCI - Out of AP Indy and Take Charge Lady - has a pedigree as good as any. He absolutely has the pedigree to get the trip.
I\'m sure there will be a thread with selections, and will save my final thoughts for it.
Pretty sure Borel is gonna have his horse well positioned and in the right spot no matter what the pace.
How far back off the leaders depends on how fast they\'re going.I wouldn\'t count on him to make a mistake or misjudge the pace in this race.Pencil him in for 1w1w and figure out if TCI is good enough.
I expect an honest to fast pace which to my way of thinking benefits Dullahan the most at the distance.
TCI can lay down methodical 12 second 1/8ths all day, which is the sign of grade 1 horse, but I don\'t think it\'s a sign of a true front runner. Plus he\'s already shown, on several occassions, that he is willing to sit off the pace. Only way I see him up there is if the pace is pretty slow early, say close to 48 to the half.
I think we can count on TCI getting more or less the same ride as Super Saver. Probably exactly the same ride - out, over, around the turn, wait down the backstretch and don\'t leave the rail unless someone stops in front of him and he absolutely has to. IMO TCI was the biggest winner of the draw.
The thing that bothers me about TCI is that he had an opportunity at CD on the rail in the BCJ and he showed nothing running behind Hansen. I think he may be the type that excells in Florida.
What are the odds of Borail winning 4 Derbies in 6 years? Astronomical.
The thing that bothers me about Union Rags is that he hasn\'t developed,he figures to get into a traffic jam, and he\'s by Dixie Union. If anyone is not gonna get a mile and a quarter its him.
The thing that bothers me about Hansen: all the doubters....
Hi Mo,
Have you seen UR? He may be a Dixie Union, but he looks nothing like a Dixie Union. He\'s got a lot of distance breeding in his female line, and Dixie is sort of distance neutral anyway. Wheras Hansen looks just like his sire, Tapit (also a distance neutral sire) but comes from a female line that lacks distance. So I don\'t get your argument here. If either of these would be more of the miler type, by breeding, it would definately be Hansen.
hi mjellish,,
It\'s the Derby, a guessing game when it comes to \"can they get the distance\".
The TG sire index is interesting, perhaps I am misinterpreting it?
Dixie Union at over 1 mile - 12.3 less than a mile - 11.
Tapit at over a mile - 11. less than a mile 12.
seems to me Tapit\'s have a better shot at getting a mile and a quarter than Dixie Union\'s.
There is a big headache here because there is an hour and a half break before the Derby, and who knows what they are going to do to the track if it rains, etc. My feeling is there will be a quick pace, and when it\'s around 46 or so for a half I\'m looking for a stalk/closer to win.
Lots of times in big races I think everybody is holding back a little and afraid to commit? But here I think once one goes, they will battle each other. Hansen will not rate kindly. Trinni is not going to sit behind anyone. I don\'t see a War Emblem-type Derby here. They will go.
For Bor-ail fans what happens if there\'s a dead rail? Distinct possibility. As Yogi Berra said you can observe a lot by watching and that\'s going to be big this year. But even if you watch you could see a radical change between early dirt races and the Derby.
Right now my bet is the frontrunners fold and my money comes winging in late or from mid pack.
HP
phil23 Wrote:
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> Yep, I kind of feel insane even suggesting it.
> Just getting freaked out by what his price could
> be.
Don\'t feel to crazy. A friend and I each make a superfecta bet every year, and then we split the winnings when we hit. Well this year he has Trinni on his ticket because of the odds. It is completely silly, but it was his ticket that hit last year so I\'m not going to judge. :-)
I agree completely. I also get your take on the sire stats. But Tapit isn\'t exactly a classic distance sire, although he may be marginally better than Dixie Union. I know everyone talks about sire stats, but I think you have to look at the dam side. It\'s half the genes, so it has to matter. UR has distance and class all over his dam side, whereas Hansen has sprinter and claimer all over his dam side. And, if you put all the breeding aside and just look at these two horses, no way you come out saying UR looks like Dixie or a sprinter. He looks more like a big, powerful Nijinsky / Northern Dancer type. Even sweats like them.
I also agree on UR\'s appearance - but for me that\'s a double edged sword given his draw. Big horses need room to run and are often times better served by running wide. His FL Derby looked better than it was because he rebroke. But, there is gonna be a lot more traffic to navigate on Sat than he had to in FL, while Hansen should get a clean trip.
Maker has been trying to harness this guys speed. His work the other day was visually impressive where the first 2/3 of the work he was alone and then the last part he engaged a workmate and rebroke and outfinished that one. He has also been quoted saying he\'d love Bode and Trinni dueling with Hansen about 8 or 10 lengths back in 3rd or 4th. That tells me there going to shoot for a 1st quarter in 23 and change or 24 - then step on the gas. And if he finds himself alone on the lead in 23 and change, it\'s Spend a Buck all over again as speed unchallanged invariably wins.
So while it\'s still no guarantee he\'ll win, Hansen has so many advantages over these horses going into the race including a win over the track - over most of these same horses that it\'s hard to bet against him at 10-1, while at the same time I can\'t bet another horse with any confidence, except Gemologist and he\'ll be 9-2 by the time they hit the far turn. No value there. No value in UR or Bode as co favs. Borail is gonna kill the price on TCI and Dullahan is going to take a lot of money. El Padrino supposedly looks like shit appearancewise on the track, now what, go fishing for a longshot? Daddy Knows Best? I keep coming back to the champ at 10-1.
Can\'t argue with just about everything you said. I guess what it comes down to is what you feel fair odds are on HAN to win. For me that\'s easy. I would need to see about 20-1 to feel I was getting in the ballpark. And I like the colt. For what it\'s worth he\'s the only bet I cashed on sat BC Day as I got roughed up pretty bad. But I don\'t like him here. Although with the right fractions, he is gutty enough to maybe hold on for a piece IMO. So he\'s tough to toss.
You have to like a colt who tries hard everytime. GL and if it turns out you are right hopefully you cash a big one.
I must admit I\'m not going to load up on this horse as originally planned thanks to the comments and insight of many of the posters here, none more influential than TGJB. I see why he thinks Hansen is \"shaky\". Maybe it\'s a good thing I\'m in a slump at the poker tables and don\'t have as much to gamble with this week. LOL.
Best of luck to you too!
MO wrote:
\"speed unchallanged invariably wins.\"
If it\'s unchallenged all the way to the finish line, yes, it invariably wins.
Curtis-- nice.