Did not watch the seminar. I really think we have to see how the track is playing to make final decisions, but I feel pretty close.
What\'s good about this Derby?
There are years where a horse or two really stands out. This year, I see about 11 horses where I would not be SHOCKED if they won. I don\'t want to post about specific figures but there are two horses here that have run the best figs, but about 9 others are within two points.
Looking at the shortest priced horses first, I don\'t see any slam dunks and furthermore I don\'t see any reason to take them over the longshots I like.
I think Union Rags is the most likely short priced horse to move up. However, he could move up and still be out of the tri. He ran a lot better than Hansen in the Juvi and still lost. He managed to get bottled up and uncomfortable in the Florida Derby, which was a much smaller field. He probably would\'ve been better off outside. To me he just offers no value at all, talent notwithstanding.
Bodemeister looks likely to back up here as per other Baffert horses coming into the race off big efforts. Looked great beating nothing. He\'s going to be eye to eye with some of these in here. No value.
I don\'t think Creative Cause will be 3rd choice in the betting. No problem tossing him off last.
Hansen is another who will take money and may be compromised by the pace. Not sure that Blue Grass helped him. He wasn\'t \"cranked\" to win but he flew in that race? And he had his own way and still got run down. Doesn\'t look like a horse who is going to get better stretching out.
I think this will be a competitive race and has the potential to collapse and maybe some real chaos with trips. So why take short prices on these horses above? If they beat me in any combination the prices will not be great. Here are the horses that look like real value and have some shot at winning.
Take Charge Indy
Dullahan
Daddy Nose Best
Prospective
Gemologist
Went the Day Well
Six horses is not actually too bad for spreading out in the Derby, and given the odds this is the path I will probably take. Playing these in exactas and tris. Just have to figure out how to weight a few of them, and that will be game day decision.
Good luck to all. HP
JB,
So, you mentioned an interesting race shape in the Derby, which seems pretty vanilla to me, except if you mean that TCI is faster early than Bode, he\'s not.TG Race shapes calculations for Cali, like whole TG numbers for Cali on the slow side vs other solid data, as you know, so it fits on TG Cali profile.
On that note,in the OAKS, can I get any amount down on Edens Moon not being 13th after a quarter as race shapes indicates, serious.
Oaks/Derby write up very sheet oriented as expected,credible if you follow that line.
Mike
In case it rains -
Bode probably won\'t mind slop. sire Empire Maker won the Wood and Belmont over off tracks and has In Reality on top and bottom. Baffert\'s only good showing in this race over the past 10 years was with an Empire Maker colt, in the slop (3 pt top). Bode\'s running style huge if wet. other colt dangerous over slop is TCI, who has great mud breeding and the running style and jock to avoid most of the flying mud. El Pad likes it wet, but trip will be an issue as Pletcher has said he wants the colt to come from behind.
difficult to know how Union Rags will respond if it\'s muddy or sloppy. has run well in the past, but might take mud if tucked in behind the top tier. and Dull could take a ton of mud with his running style.
Definitely game day decisions to be made. Especially if it\'s standing water vs. drying out.
Michael - looks like Hansen wouldn\'t mind a wet track? and El Pad as per one of our posters \"working like an elephant.\" thoughts?
HP
yeah, Hansen has the right running style for an off track. I\'ll excuse the GP race with the crazy early fractions. I believe Dominguez will rate a length or two off the pace 3w. should avoid most of the flying mud. wet fast would probably be ideal.
I looked over the Oaks and Derby write ups and while I was mostly in agreement with Jerry on the Derby, I am going against his advice in the Oaks. I know that I\'m doing so at my own peril since I have his most likely winner as a toss on pace & my most likely winner he has as a toss on sheet and training pattern. The good news is that I\'m saving with the Oaks value horse who I\'ve had no worse than 2nd, so as long as Jerry isn\'t completely correct on the most probables, I\'ve got a shot that we both could be cashing.
Miff-- so how have the Cali shippers into NY been doing? You know, the ones that are faster on \"solid data\", and have been going off short prices here?
JB,
Not the question I posed on race shapes. You have selective memory referring to several Cali shippers recently sent to NY by Valente/Barber,know all about their poor performances.
\"Slow\" California shippers to NY show forward moves over years, run lotsa new tops on TG but only pairs on Beyer/Rags.Thats been well documented, you may want to check that.
Mike
You know what? If you remind me next week when I have time we\'ll put together sheets on all the ones that have run in both Cali and NY over the last 4 months. We\'ll get to see who has selective memory.
Whoa, talking years and not synth/dirt move ups either.Baffert alone shipped to Sunland and OP this past few months.I think a horse named Bodemeister was one of them.
See, now THAT would be an example of selective memory. What possible other explanation could there be for one horse getting a faster figure? I guess Bodie\'s earlier races were just as fast as his OP race.
What we\'ll do is look dirt/dirt, using the ones that have run Socal and NY since December. I guess you already know how bad this is going to be. I think every single one was favored first time here (and weren\'t fast on our stuff, as you probably saw). Any of them win? I\'m guessing ROI of less than 20 cents on the dollar.
JB,
I\'ve been tracking TG figs for Cali shippers for YEARS.What happened from Dec till now with short prices Cali shippers is not representative of what the \"whole\" of Cali shippers run, TG fig wise, when they ship for many moons.Many Cali shippers suddenly get faster TG figs or run tops while looking on the slow side going in.
Recent ROI at Aqueduct relative to 5-6 Cali shippers is irrelevant(esp if the just x\'d) in evaluating why horses with slowish Cali figs ship all over and run faster TG Figs but not faster Beyers/Rags.
I believe(may be wrong) that you or Alan posted that TG is rated slower than Rags/Beyer converted in Cali which may be a clue as to why.
And while you may mock Beyer/Rags as being \"reliable data\", I assure you that $$millions pour through the windows every day from gamblers using them.
Mike
Mike-- I\'m staring at the track-to-track for Santa Anita. Starting 1/1/11 through 4/23/12 there have been 779 horses that ran on dirt there and also ran on dirt at another track. They average 1/4 point faster figures at the other tracks. The median (often more useful) is less, just a 1/10th of a point difference. As for NYRA tracks, there have been 45, and the SA horses actually got slightly BETTER figures in California than here.
JB,
I\'ll save you the trouble. I have tracked all Cali shippers to NY and other MAJOR venues, not all venues. Most of the runners are stakes(about 200 since 2005) types that I tracked. I plotted every one of them against the best conversion formula on the planet.The problem that I initially discovered was greatly exacerbated when synths were installed in Cali. The numbers were off the wall, speaking conversion.
Incidentally,the conversion is always Beyer(adjusted) to TG to Rags.All conversions for all tracks(not just CALI)perfectly convert(BEYER/TG/RAGS) 84% 0f the time.
In Cali conversions only, over 50% of the runners ran a TG top but only paired Beyer/RAGS.Won\'t post the data but will send it to you if you wish.I gamble off the horses that were converted and KNOW the results.
Mike
Mike-- You need to listen better. There is no conversion necessary-- these are the actual figures. They measure dirt to dirt only. They answer the exact question we\'re discussing-- no conversions, no \"some synth\". The study you are discussing is a hodge-podge if it has some synth/dirt-- part of what it then measures is THAT, not the circuits.
JB,
The conversions I speak of are anything but hodge podge. You have never seen anything more sophisticated/researched than this conversion.Took two years and 2,236 conversions to just establish what zero converts to on TG/RAGS/BEYER without weight and ground.Another thousand+ conversions to translate weight and ground loss into the formula.
There are no synth to dirt conversions only pure synth conversions.For synth, adjusted Beyer to TG to RAGS. In that area, TG averaged 2 points slower 31% of the time vs Beyer/Rags at Del Mar and Santa Anita synth,the other 69% converted.
Doing the entire thing like you are is not necessary,never said that EVERY TG Cali fig does not convert or that the entire circuit is off like Finger Lakes was.
Mike
You need to explain that last sentence. If doing them all is not necessary, how do you choose which ones to use to decide?
(Note-- I\'m simply ignoring the rest of that stuff, not remotely accepting either its accuracy or relevance).
I mostly agree with your dope HP, with the exception of Hansen. No matter what the track condition is, I'm not sure the pace scenario helps Hansen, who I'm downgrading even more based on Welsch's report today that he was "rank, aggressive, and hard to handle during just a routine gallop."
For what it's worth, perhaps nothing, one of the things I look for when the horses in the Derby are this closely matched is how each horse has dealt with adversity, the theory being that most of the runners are likely to encounter some kind of trouble at some point in what is obviously a unique race. Of the 11 I've seen run in person, the ones I think both figure from a handicapping standpoint and have demonstrated that they can handle being roughed up some are Union Rags, Dullahan, and Daddy Nose Best.
If the odds cooperate, I'm going to concentrate my action on those three in the race itself, as well as the Oaks-Derby Double and the Oaks-Woodford-Derby Pk3.
The horse that intrigues me the most for the bottom rung of the exotics is Rousing Sermon, as he reminds me of Mula Gula, another Hollendorfer shipper who ran on the Derby undercard the year FuPeg won. While Hollendorfer's numbers shipping to KY are high, if memory serves his numbers for Derby Day ships are astronomical, and it seems the less sense the horse makes—to me at least--the more live it is.
Hi Mike,
I look after the database for TG and write the software, including the stuff we use to monitor the consistency between tracks and the program which generates the race shapes, one of your particular favorites I think.
Not sure how you rationalise your position in this post - \'never said that EVERY TG Cali fig does not convert\' - with your riposte to HP\'s original post - \'like whole TG numbers for Cali on the slow side vs other solid data.\'
Are you saying \'EVERY TG Cali fig\' is not the same as \'whole TG numbers for Cali?\' If you are then your command of my mother tongue is better than mine!
No matter send JB the list of horses you\'ve tracked and I\'ll run them against our database.
Cheers,
George
I want to back you up here...the argument against Bodemeister and Jerry\'s insightful discussion of training patterns and Sheet history COULD have been made against Broadway\'s Alibi...can anyone find a successful Oaks Sheet even resembling Alibi\'s?...few, if any fillies have scored in this race without an effort beyond a one-turn mile...and now she comes back off a top with no history of repeating an effort on rest this short...Friday\'s conditions will be wildly different than the small field she wired at Aqueduct...plus, the barn has a history of \"squeezing the lemon dry\", peaking before championship events...Jerry ignores the \'bo\' attached to her fig as well...I expected to read a caution in regard to Pletcher and advice to chart how his horses are running earlier in the card.
Successful Oaks and Derby patterns have evolved over the years...maybe BA\'s Sheet represents a change in preparation, but this race has been dominated by late developing fillies who possess strong foundations and forward moves in two-turn
routes.