If you believe the talk that everything has to go right to win a race like the derby you would toss:
Alpha - missed work, antibiotics, cut leg
IHA - shock wave treatment
El Padrino - Bad work, blowing hard today on the track
Creative Cause - Not on the track the last 2 days, possible foot injury, shoes issues
Its a start, any other contender tosses.
justwin Wrote:
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> If you believe the talk that everything has to go
> right to win a race like the derby you would
> toss:
> Alpha - missed work, antibiotics, cut leg
> IHA - shock wave treatment
> El Padrino - Bad work, blowing hard today on the
> track
> Creative Cause - Not on the track the last 2 days,
> possible foot injury, shoes issues
> Its a start, any other contender tosses.
I have the same list but with a star next to IHA because the shock wave therapy might / might not be an issue..If it does numb an area then it might not hurt.
IHA has impressed onlookers today.
Thats what I\'ve heard every day since he\'s been there. I hope he gets the 1,2,19 or 20 post along with Bode. i\'m hoping for good draws for Gem & Dull.
IHA - post 19. No more worries. if he beats me from here, i\'m ok with it.
There\'s a lot of ways to look at the draw...early thoughts:
Bode is in trouble...a ton of speed outside him, dropping over on him if they try to take it slower with him, which I doubt. A ton of speed to force him into using his energy since he is likely to have to be used early. UR and Dullahan clearly have to navigate and circle, but both can save some ground. Gem in a great spot if he is good enough. IAH got screwed. Creative ok if he\'s ok.
If you liked I\'ll Have Another before the draw, post 19 isn\'t bad for a stalker. He has some gate speed and has a very long run into the first turn, with plenty of time to \"get over\".
If you asked Baffert if he would prefer post 6 inside of Trinniberg and Hansen, or post 19, I am pretty sure he would say post 19. (yes, I took Geometry, so no lesson needed here, but race tactics matter. I would not mind an outside post with a horse with gate speed, especially in a race with a VERY LIMITED around of runners with any real early speed, which is likely to be a key to the race, IMHO)
Jim
Hansen really hit the jackpot here. Bode insde of Trinni and both far away from and inside of Hansen.
Agreed...Hansen could be considered the controlling speed...but at 10 furlongs???? Not so sure.
I think TCI has to be sent to the front as well from the 3 hole, so I expect Hansen will be a bit too wide for what he needs. I also don\'t see Trinni letting anyone else in front.
I think you are right - Calvin will have to send to get position, but the horse isn\'t as fast early as Bode and Trinni, so I see Borail sitting 2nd tier just off the speed but on the rail. Hansen will stalk Bode and Trinni, who will be dueling up front. Smith has to send. If Bode stumbles, then Trinni is loose on the lead with Hansen confidently stalking from 2nd. Gemologist drew great and is the only real threat to Hansen. I think Gem will follow Hansen - using him as a target.
Dullahan will be dropping back from the start anyway, as will Rousing Sermon. And with Bode going to the front, UR will all the room to his outside that he wants after about 100 yards.
It will be interesting to see what everyone says when they see the Race Shape.
Possibly Hansen loose on the lead?
MO Wrote:
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> I think you are right - Calvin will have to send
> to get position, but the horse isn\'t as fast early
> as Bode and Trinni, so I see Borail sitting 2nd
> tier just off the speed but on the rail. Hansen
> will stalk Bode and Trinni, who will be dueling up
> front. Smith has to send. If Bode stumbles, then
> Trinni is loose on the lead with Hansen
> confidently stalking from 2nd. Gemologist drew
> great and is the only real threat to Hansen. I
> think Gem will follow Hansen - using him as a
> target.
I think you got this scenario right. I\'m guessing Smith is just going to have to let Bo run early and hope to make Trinni\'s jock think about trying to stalk outside so they don\'t kill themselves. But I think the rest of what you wrote is correct..
How the hell do you not take Borel seriously here with that draw. Horse will be sitting second tier on the rail behind a jock that doesn\'t like to be on the rail turning for home so he\'s not getting blocked. All the horse has to do is run..
Wasn\'t going to play until now..
If Bode is sent he wont win.Smith has been around too long to not realize this. Trini will clear and Bode will be outside him 1-2 lengths back with Hansen lapping on him. Best scenario for Bode would be if Hansen is sent and engages Trini with Bode behind that pair biding his time. Blinkers off, I think, will enable him to relax and use his cruising speed throughout. They are going to be moving so it will come down to what he has left when they turn for home.
I have to toss all the garbage about not running at 2. When it gets down to it you have to handicap a race.I think Bode will turn out to be the best of this group and am willing to bet at 4-1. Will he be the best this Saturday?