After last yr\'s BC, West Coast jockeys took the position that the AP turf course should have been listed as yielding rather than firm. This yr a fair amount has been written regarding how the hard SA turf course has favored speed, but it was aerated & watered this week, which will presumably soften it up some. Seeing how it plays over the next few days might be a worthwhile expenditure of time. Temperatures near 100 early this week has a number of people talking about which horses have or are showing signs of developing their \"winter coat.\" From what I understand, that depends as much on light as weather, so by putting a blanket over the horse & turning on certain lights in the stall a trainer pointing to the BC could pretty much avoid the problem. Despite having heard just the opposite in prior yrs when the BC was run at a warm weather venues, I am advised now that for the kind of weather expected Sat., a winter coat and/or partial winter coat might compromise a horse\'s chances a little bit, with the emphasis on little.
I\'ve heard the heat wave is due to break in time for the big day. As much as they will water that track, it ain\'t England...or even Chicago. We\'ll see. HP
Or France, for that matter. I read somewhere that they were hoping to grow the grass to 3/4\", considerably shorter than the 4 1/2-6\" at many Euro tracks. Some forecasts say it will go down to 78 by Sat, while the MC at the draw said it will be 86.
This is really a puzzling question because on the one hand, European horses tend to do very well on Santa Anita\'s turf course, but the heat wave they\'ve had is very hard to factor in.
My only thought is to observe the horses in the post parade and warm-ups and look for clues; I love a few Euro\'s this year and my feeling is I\'m not going to play pick six\'s or even pick fours if I can\'t see the horse; I love Islington, and I just read how she doesn\'t like the heat, same situation for Falbrav -- ok, so, it\'s 95 there today, and it will be 75 on Saturday, but 75 is still a completely different experience than where they came from; the rock hard (pool-table like) surface is a different story as well; we\'ll see how slow they are able to make it this week -- I have noticed that when they try and slow things down, speed horses don\'t fare very well, but that\'s just an observation. The surface gets more cushion to it and it tends to burn out the speed types.
Honestly, though, nothing can be worse than last year -- starting the mile on the turn so the greatest horse in the world (at the time) has absolutely no shot in the Breeder\'s Cup mile -- what a nightmare old Arlington Park was!
Don\'t blame AP for a piss poor ride by the over confident Mick Kinane.
What\'s HIGH CHAPARRAL\'s chances this year if ol\' Mickey decides to drop back several times on the turn like he did last year?
Joe B.
Mid to upper 70\'s would be nice, but they\'re now calling for temps in the mid-90\'s on Saturday - at least that is the case according to Caton Bredar.
There is one horse in the Juvenile Fillies which should feel very much at home in the severe heat. Someone remind me again why a horse from LaD can\'t be competitive in this race at a price which will probably be higher than her 50-1 ML.
Why not Vino indeed?!?!
Juvy Filly is a great betting race with the big chalk Halfbridled being very vulnerable.
Even starting the Pik 3 with Sightseek could pay big balloons with the Juvy and Mile wide open affairs. Ending with Juvy, Mile with Scott Lake You Down and Aldebaran not bad either [Midas anyone?]
What is the \"right kind\" of Euro for SA?
There have been four BC turf races at SA (two Miles and two Turfs). Euros won one Mile (Last Tycoon - a sprinter stretching out for the first time) and finished second in the other (Ski Paradise).
In both cases, the horses ran on or near the lead (neither was ever more than two lengths from the front). So maybe that\'s the kind of Euro you want on the relatively hard turf.
Horses that last ran at Belmont and Santa Anita occupied every other in-the-money spot in these races, except Fourstars Allstar (Laurel).
In the Turf, in \'86 Dancing Brave was the big Euro (0.50-1) and ran fourth after breaking a bit slow. In 93, Opera House was 4.10-to-1 and ran early with Luazar (who finished third) before fading to sixth. In both editions of the SA Turf, stone closers fared poorly, and they haven\'t done very well in the SA Miles either. Even in-the-money finishers that have come from 13th to close for 2nd are in touch with the pace and not completely out of it.
Horses that last ran at Belmont and Santa Anita occupied every other in-the-money spot in these races, except Fourstars Allstar (Laurel).
This is what I\'m looking at to try to separate the contenders. Good luck to all.
HP
I also heard that the weather forecast was revised and Saturday may be the hottest day of the week. If it stays hot and then gets windy, speed will be tough to run down.It\'s never easy, is it???
PS: One suprising fact: no mention of VOODOO DANCER as one of the top contenders in any web site or paper that I have seen. If this mare had a prep race , she\'d go 5-2. I will not mind taking 8-1 to find out how good a layoff trainer Mr. Clement is.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I heard Voodoo Dancer was out of training for awhile because she was sick. I think you have a shot at your 8-1 price. HP
Joe B please explain this to a novice like me:
\"If it stays hot and then gets windy, speed will be tough to run down\"
Silver Charm---
That\'s from the mouth of the SA track superintendent. Seems that they spend an inordinate amount of time during the hot weather watering the track to keep it even. When it goes over 90, they sometimes go around 3-4 times during the card. If it gets windy, the water just dries too quickly and watering it is an effort in futility.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
The reason I asked is there could be the possibility of TRACK MAINTENANCE becoming an issue.
If things are too fast early on then perhaps the track maintenance crew does even more work on the track and trys to even things out a little bit. But then again maybe they can't do anything about it, as you explained. If that is the case you are probably talking about a two variant day. Sophisticated figure makers probably have a much better idea than I do regarding this topic.
Here is an example from a BC run a few years ago at Churchill Downs. In the first race, a Listed Stake for 75K F & M, Miss RaHeHa ran 109:3 then about an hour later Cherokee Run ran about the exact same time. Maybe 1/5th of a second difference. IS THERE ANYONE who thinks that the best sprinter in the world was no faster than this Listed Stake filly (she won by a length in a Pat Day hand ride). I know of one SHEET figure maker (Ragozin) who probably did.
Hell even Beyer cut the two races loose. If Cherokee Run and Miss RaHeHa squared off in a match race he would beat her a 100 times out of a 100. This isn't to say that a SHEET figure system that doesn't adjust its variants for aberrations such as this is a bad system just a FLAWED system. THOROGRAPH ALWAYS ACCOUNTS FOR THESE ABBERATIONS.
TRACK MAINTENANCE is always happening during a racing card, to what degree is where TGJB comes in—Correct.
I'm sure when Miss RaHeHa ran back the next time out there was a very simple explanation for why she ran no where near her previous figure—She Bounced.
It is these type of examples that give the term bounce a bad name. Just like when Buddy Gil this spring was supposedly in a state of regression according to some when he bounced into the winners circle in the Grade2 San Raphael and then bounced again into the winners circle in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. At least according to Ragozin. TG had a line that looked as though this was an improving horse not a regressing one.
Speaking of Buddy Gil, is he retired?
What about the rest of that SA Derby field?
A few of them got hurt, but I haven\'t read any follow ups.
Classhandicapper--
I wonder what happens to a good number of 3yos that prep for the classics at Santa Anita.
Silver Charm--
Good point. You read right into what the track maintenance guy was saying. My feeling is that they can even things out despite temps in the 90\'s, however they lose control should it get too windy. I\'m starting to think that horses that have experience over both courses will have a significant advantage. That\'s not to say that a very good horse like a FALBRAV or PERFECT DRIFT can\'t overcome the conditions. But in those races where the numbers are close, sticking with the runners that have SA experience is the way to go.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Joe B,
You have been RED HOT today. Thanks for all the good advice.
Classhandicapper,
As far as Buddy Gil goes I heard he was back in training. As far as the rest of the SA Derby field goes, why stop there, other than TMW and Dynever none of the other Spring 3YO\'s are left either.
Not counting Funny Cide and Peace Rules who haven\'t exactly been running a lot lately and one can only guess what condition they are in now.
I love looking at the past performances of the great horses of the past. Derby, Preakness, another race while waiting for the Belmont, Belmont and then continue right on going. All that after a grueling 2 yo season. What a difference. They may get better TG numbers these days but they are held together with spit and a prayer. :-)
Good Point CH,
Go back to BC #1 when Chiefs Crown won the very first race ever in the Juvy. He had run in all the big 2YO races even shipped west and prepped at SA in the Norfolk then vanned over to Hollywood Park for BC #1.
The next year he ran in all 3 TC races (favored in all 3--no wins) the Travers, Marlboro Cup and went favored in BC Classic #2 at Aqueduct.
Back to Dynever and TMW, they both were kind of OFF THE MAIN TRAIL for the BIG 3YO races (pre-Derby). That may be why they are still around
guys, screw the weather...what you might want to review - and you can download the video on the /ntra website - is Falbrav last race...basically ran the distance of BC by staying on the OUTSIDE rail the whole way until the final two furlongs! could not close in...no winning chance at 12F. HC does not look dominating in his last two either...SH has best closing kick by far...my interesting horse of the day will be wildly overlooked - Society Selection with the famous Ray Ganpath up - no one, repeat no one, outside of NY will give him any chance...not surprised to see him go to 25:1 and be in it...best of luck to you all. I think this year\'s TG products for BC are even better than last. Let\'s go!
forcast is sunny and 90
Yesterday\'s results looked like SA was playing reasonably honest (for SA that is). It isn\'t Belmont, but race developments looked reasonable. I hope that\'s true tomorrow. If anyone has been handicapping the CA races and watching results live this week, please share any insights into the track and turf course.