I have gotten no fewer than 10 calls or messages from people today about how great Union Rags looked and trained this morning. A bunch from people who were there and then some second hand.
This makes it so tough for me because on one hand, he\'s no faster than a bunch of others and I really don\'t think he\'s going to get the trip he needs (i.e. clean so that he doesn\'t get stopped but not too wide).
On the other hand, last time I ignored some of the same people who told me how great he looked was when they told me how great Big Brown looked before his Derby win. I stubbornly played against him on the bounce theory and the post and subsequetly tore up all my tickets.
If he breezes tomorrow like he galloped today, this horse will be 4-1 and I just don\'t know what to do about that.
You also have an incredibly great jock, its not like this horse is being ridden by someone who is going to just butcher the ride.
I hate when the \'favorite\' looks great.....the Derby is all about beating that short priced horse and coming up with a fancy 40 dollar winner of your very own.
Btw, GL today in the finale at Keeneland, great to see that 4 horse scratched out, gives you a much better shot!
Thank you so much.
I was quite happy to see that scratch myself. I thought that one was going to be tough.
If we aren\'t right there at the wire given how this horse has trained and the figure advantage he has on the turf over these, I am going to be very disappointed but the big man upstairs knows I have been disappointed before
thanks again
I tried to beat BB as well, biggest mistake was BB was the fastest horse coming into the race. Won\'t make that mistake again. That\'s not the case here though, if he\'s 4-1, which I\'m a little skeptical on, I think you have to try and beat him. He\'s a major player, but without popping a number yet in his career, I want 6-1. With the other guys having the Fla. derby as a back up number, Bode getting a lot of press, and GEM taking a fair amount of money, we may get the 6-1.
Good Luck Jim!
I think this horse is going to move forward in this race. I am willing to forgive his FL Derby as he really didn\'t get out to run until the last 250 yds. With the slow early pace, although he came home his last 1/8 in 12 and change he was not going to catch TCI or finish the race with a strong figure.
That being said, even if he moves forward I don\'t think that has to make him the winner. His breeding for the distance is OK. But he also looks to me like a horse who does not want to be inside. No way they are going to let him get pinned down by the rail again like in the FL Derby. His last workout at Keenland they kept him in the 3 path all the way around. So to me, that means wide trip in a 20 horse field and ground loss. So even a big fig may not get him into the winners circle.
Don\'t see how you can toss him though. Even if you want to play against him, I would still use as a saver of some type.
MJ,
I think you have it absolutely nailed that the horse doesn\'t want to be down on the inside.
I was VERY critical of the way Javier rode this horse in the Juvy last year but in hindsight, I think that\'s how he needs to get ridden. He has a gigantic stride and so he really needs to be in the clear to make his run and there\'s no way that Julien will have him in traffic on the inside after the beating he took for the ride in the Florida Derby so I think a 5w5w trip is coming from Union Rags at least and I have been leaning toward tossing him based on that.
However, I think you have him right, I don\'t need to toss him out of everything like I did BB, even if I don\'t like him on top.
For those of you that weren\'t on the board at the time, MJ had a HUGE Score on the Big Brown derby and he was right for the right reasons on the whole race so anyone on the board looking for advice should definitely pay more attention to what he says than what I say as I tore up all my tickets on that one!
Jim,
As I recall you had the KY Derby super in 2010, whereas I left SS off most of my tickets, and didn\'t use him in the win position on any of them, after you and several others on this board pointed out the merits of using him.
Don\'t be so humble.
The more I look at this Derby, the more chalky it looks unless there is a complete pace breakdown or a sloppy track. I dunno how you can toss UR, GEM, or DUL with any real level of confidence. I can see tossing Bode, but I can also see him winning. I don\'t see any value to be had with UR & Bode on the same tri ticket unless you really like a bomber to hit with them, and you can\'t play all the bombers or you don\'t get any value that way either. There is probably value in the Super no matter who you use together on the same ticket, but the initial matrix I laid out to bet the race that way is really something to behold. It will take me at least an hour to punch out all of those tickets, maybe two, and that may just be what I wind up doing.
There\'ve been some questions about him getting the distance, I guess as with all, but has anyone seen this pattern before. He is stretched out incrementally over his starts, only to keep putting in the same general number. I\'m sort of viewing it as he may be hitting his wall, but he was going well at the end in Fla. which makes him a real difficult toss. Any thoughts?
lol, thanks buddy, in Calvin we trust!!!!!!!
I\'m pretty confident tossing Dullahan. While he could pair up, even if you think he\'s going to like dirt, he may back up off that Blue Grass number? That was a big jump for him. He did not show any particular affinity for dirt or CD as a 2yo. And while many will invoke Mine That Bird, I don\'t think Even The Score is as strong as Birdstone as a sire? I see Unbridled\'s Song back there. Lean towards...toss.
GEM\'s sheet looks a bit like Super Saver.
HP
HP-
Agree about Gem. But I don\'t know about DUL. Last couple of years I have completely ignored the Blue Grass. My initial thought on this horse was to do the same. But after looking at his sheet and watching his races, I dunno. He\'s actually bred to like the dirt so this isn\'t they typical Blue Grass Poly one hit wonder horse. His 4th in the BC JUV wasn\'t bad as he raced on the dead rail for most of the trip. His sire line typically improves 5-6 points from two-three years old, which leaves him room for more development on that side. Plus the dam seems to throw runners who improve a whole bunch from two to three. Add all of that to that fact that it isn\'t abnormal to see a 2-3 point jump going Poly/Turf to dirt for horses that handle the surface switch anyway... He seems to relax no matter what goes on in front or behind him and comes with his run no matter what. He\'s also athletic with a turn of foot and can fire a quick burst of speed, cut around or weave through traffic. And he\'s one of the few colts that haven\'t had a single issue all year. EVERYTHING has gone exactly as planned for this guy. He has been expertly handled by what I feel is one of the best trainers out there. From what I can tell he is thriving at Churchill right now. If he works well and gallops strong in the days afterwards...
I say toss at your own risk. But I wish I didn\'t feel that way as you could turn out to be completely right and I may be completely wrong.
Interesting colt anyway.
GL
MJ,
Hello and long time no chat, I too believe that Bode is the key to the race. Everything I\'ve leaned in the past 35 years tells me to toss him, big figure for a lightly raced horse, only 3 weeks in between, picks up 8 lbs and will be 1st or 2nd choice at 7/2 or 4/1. Not to mention that the big fig was earned at the quirkiest track in North America where I\'ve never had any luck with horses duplicating figures run there. I don\'t even bet Oaklawn at all, I\'m that bad there!!!!!!! I\'ll defer to miff\'s expertise in calling it a very fair track on that day.
I may use him horizontally and toss him vertically? I\'m not sure and can\'t really throw him out because he could wreck this bunch or be off the board.. I posted after the Florida Derby that I would bet El Padrino next out no matter where. I did not think he would squeak in with earnings but he\'ll be 20-25/1 off a total non effort. I loved Alpha moving forward and KM 3rd off is huge but an antibiotics toss. UR would have been 2/1 if not for a tough BC juvenile trip and a horrible effort by LeParoux in the Fla. Derby and he\'ll be 6/1.
So we\'re one week out and I\'m clueless.
Frank D.
GEM\'s sheet looks even more like somebody else\'s, but I\'ll save that for the seminar...
Ugh Jim, tough beat for the both of us, i was alive with a 1 dollar pick 5 to your pony. Great try, he was game, get em next time!
plasticman Wrote:
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> Ugh Jim, tough beat for the both of us, i was
> alive with a 1 dollar pick 5 to your pony. Great
> try, he was game, get em next time!
Not too sure what the rush up was about on the backstretch by Prado, then he got stuck on the rail. Cost me the Tri and Supers a couple of times..of course I didn\'t reverse..
Look at the bright side Jim, you collected a couple of bucks on the purse and you can run him back in the same condition and hopefully collect the purse next time. Hope it wasn\'t you that sent him form 2/1 to 1/1 in a minute..
I\'m looking at race replays now. Dullahan certainly looks good in terms of how he would fare with a quick pace? Given the comments I am going to take a longer look. As I\'m watching replays...as per earlier post (I don\'t know from who) Hansen does not look like he wants to rate, and if I\'m banking on him rating off Bode and Trin I\'m not sure that\'s his game? And yes, Union Rags wants to be outside, big time, and the draw could be a real downer for him.
I\'d like to have more focus on top of my tickets. Good stuff up here. Thanks.
HP
That was me.
Take another look at the Gotham. Granted, he stalked garbage cans, but - he was wide around the first turn and didn\'t assume the lead until entering the backstretch. If he draws wide in Louisville, I would expect the exact same trip. But here\'s the rub:
Look at Hansens Blue grass. He ran the 1st mile alone on the lead in 135.46 - on poly! And he was still running after the wire.
Now look at Bode\'s AD, Creative Cause\'s SA Derby and Gemologists Wood. NONE of them ran that fast for a mile.
All Hansen needs is an outside trip stalking Bode and Trinn for a quarter mile and then step on the gas. He\'ll be in front turning for home. He has beaten every contender in this field on this track save Gemologist.
As for Union Rags, I have my doubts about Dixie Union\'s getting a mile and a quarter.
Hansen will never, ever get the Derby distance. Gone by 1 1/8 mile. He\'ll finish in last 8, chestnut as he\'s coated in dust from those that pass him. He\'ll not even be in my superfecta.
(that opposite-mush just made him win the Derby, btw ... so if you like him ... )
Several have mentioned the UR doesn\'t like being down inside, and I don\'t see it. It didn\'t look like he was uncomfortable in the FD while covered up for a mile, and he ran just fine once out of that spot.
The GP and CD tracks seem to play pretty similarly on their derby days, and UR\'s closing 12.5 in 1.48 and change race says he can get the extra 1/8th in a winning time. If UR gets a forwardly-placed rail trip in the Derby (which he has the speed to do), and gets running room with a pole to go, I\'d expect him to win.
It wasn\'t a major deal, I don\'t think. But Dullahan did miss some training with a splint issue.
GEM\'s sheet looks more like Barbaro or FU PEG to me.
How?
ugggh,
usually it\'s after the Derby that I am on tilt, thanks to Edgar and that ride, now I am on tilt a full week out before the Derby.
He got off the horse and apologized profusely and took full responsibility so he knew right away.
Thanks everyone for the well wishes.
It is nice to cash a decent check and still have the condition but boy it would have been nice to take all the money today. I really thought he was a lock.
It certainly doesn\'t look like Barbaro\'s.
supersaver 2010
hold me back 2009
Closing Argument who ran 2nd in 2005.
Going further back when the numbers were slower-Grindstone.
You are unreal! Such a wishy washy handicapper! Union rags is Not faster than the rest?
Get it together pal..learn the game before you invest millions. Thank god you are not in charge of my portfolio.
Another thing you are basing your opinion on UR to BB and what people are telling you?
You didn\'t believe in BB??? A guy like you thats been around all the sharp guys in this biz and you didn\'t recognize the \"brownie\"?
Covello didn\'t like BB..wow! Kick me off of this board..I am sick of everyone worshiping his take on things.
Gee Whiz Donut,
I think Jim is a heck of guy, a good handicapper and adds a lot of positive, productive discussion to this board. I think the board is lucky to have him and we\'re all lucky that he sometimes decides to share what he hears and sees.
I don\'t post here often. But I don\'t see how your post is productive in any manner. Why post something that is asinine, personal and bitter with the tone of a jealous teenage girl? If you don\'t like the tone of the board, go rent a movie called \"Heathers.\" Might be right up your alley.
covelj70 Wrote:
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> I have gotten no fewer than 10 calls or messages
> from people today about how great Union Rags
> looked and trained this morning. A bunch from
> people who were there and then some second hand.
>
> This makes it so tough for me because on one hand,
> he\'s no faster than a bunch of others and I really
> don\'t think he\'s going to get the trip he needs
> (i.e. clean so that he doesn\'t get stopped but not
> too wide).
>
> On the other hand, last time I ignored some of the
> same people who told me how great he looked was
> when they told me how great Big Brown looked
> before his Derby win. I stubbornly played against
> him on the bounce theory and the post and
> subsequetly tore up all my tickets.
>
> If he breezes tomorrow like he galloped today,
> this horse will be 4-1 and I just don\'t know what
> to do about that.
Our steam horse worked fast and willingly, but he curiously wore front wraps in his work this am. hmmmmmmmmmmmm
Really, what is that about ?? Why wait to be kicked off? Just leave ...
Really? I am sure I am not the only one who appreciates Jim\'s posts. Even if I do not agree all the time with his opinion, I still appreciate his posts.
The personal attacks are not called for on this board or anywhere!
Dave Wrote:
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> Our steam horse worked fast and willingly, but he
> curiously wore front wraps in his work this am.
> hmmmmmmmmmmmm
Probably the most overanalyzed and least meaningful factor in all of horse racing, IMO; there are SO many reasons for using wraps that are not a negative. Quit torturing yourself.
Jim, thanks for all your positive, informative messages.
donut, most likely, is the goofy, negative clown in disguise and he has already
been banned.
Fred D
No, high school girls are much better at being mean AND funny.
We\'re still long cmo\'s purchased from the evil empire from back in the day. I still value the man\'s opinion.
Gerard,
this is tremendous, love it.
thanks to everyone for the great messages.
when you work in the industry I do, for the company I do, in the job I do, you are used to people taking potshots.
Ain\'t no thing.
Let\'s get back to the business of trying to solve this Derby puzzle.
Thanks again to everyone.
You and your company are two different things. I suspect that if people heard I pushed horses in ROTW and analysis and then booked the bets on them they wouldn\'t like me too much either.
If anyone is going to be the TG house bookie it would be me!
Superior breeding on both sides with many Chef de Race sires and gardens full of coffee cans buried underneath the tomato plants. Impeccably bred for horses or sports in sprints and routes.
FD
as Archie would say \"wuz that a shot\"
Donut = Chuckles. I thought we solved this last year when he poked his head out of the hole.
That\'s pretty good, sekrah. Funny.
You guys are something else! Covello, great call on alpha and how he should be scratched out of the Derby. Now you know more than Kiran..amazing how a few bucks in someone\'s pocket changes their expertise level in the horse racing world. All these guys blow you up..it\'s so funny! You go put a shirt and tie on and go rip more people off on wall street. Your not a horse trainer and nowhere near on the level of the guys that get up every morning at 5:30am and take care of Thoroughbreds.
All hole, no dough.
Front wraps: protect the horses legs from abrasions, run down, cuts, bangs, infection. Trainers that work (at speed) without them are the oddity. Especially if you have a horse that has a chance in the Kentucky Derby in one week, and have no time off for any little setbacks.
So sorry. Look at it this way: you\'ve left the bad race behind you, you\'re clear for the next month.
Didn\'t ESK\'s wearing front wraps in 2010 portend his problems...or is that a case of the result being confused with the cause?
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/69298/hansen-works-easy-5-furlongs-in-company
I agree with your asessment of Hansen, although I\'ll be betting heavier in the win and place positions. I wish I was back in Vegas so I could get that 16-1 you mentioned. This race could end up a reversal of the Bluegrass. Good luck. Remember to look out for #1, but don\'t step in #2.