Daddy Nose Best has peaked my interest for a number of reasons. First, he has 10 races under his belt (8 at a mile or over). He is one of the few horses who has run twice at 1 1/8 miles and he won both times. This should give him the solid foundation that others seem to lack.
Daddy seems to be on the improve this year with his move off the turf and the stretch out in distance (the Scat Daddy\'s so far appear to like going long), The race dynamics in the Derby project to favor a closer with his type of energy distribution. Like him or not, the trainer can get the job done.
Does anyone else see anything in this horse? If not, please talk me off the ledge.
Stay on the ledge and don\'t be talked down...DNB has enough time to recover from this top...love horses coming off multiple tops on different surfaces.
To me the horse best prepared to fire in the Derby is Hansen...if I were pointing for this race, I would like my top far enough back to allow for recovery...then I would prep for conditioning...going way back, Wild Again prepped for the BC Classic by running a mile on turf...Hansen proved he can handle pressure two back and that fig, if he gets back to it, will be very tough with a ground saving trip...also, I think he fired in the BC last year very much against the bias.
Daddy Nose Best was ridden with ultimate confidence by Julien Leparoux in the Sunland Derby when he ran down now-stablemate Isn\'t He Clever. Gomez has picked up the mount and he\'ll be closing in the Derby and I love the Thunder Gulch in the dam side pedigree. I won\'t talk you off this guy especially with Gomez riding, but I put him in the same category as Dullahan as one that figures to rumble up to fill out the trifecta or super, but not win.
Posted by: aceriley63 (IP Logged)
Date: April 25, 2012 09:53PM
Daddy Nose Best was ridden with ultimate confidence by Julien Leparoux in the Sunland Derby when he ran down now-stablemate Isn\'t He Clever. Gomez has picked up the mount and he\'ll be closing in the Derby and I love the Thunder Gulch in the dam side pedigree. I won\'t talk you off this guy especially with Gomez riding, but I put him in the same category as Dullahan as one that figures to rumble up to fill out the trifecta or super, but not win.
Agreed with the above remarks. The race dynamics of this year\'s running favors a runner other than early as with the distance of a mile and a quarter. Any runner who can\'t get the last eighth under 13 seconds would be in hot water when the field reaches the top of the stretch. The winner has to be on the lead by the top of the stretch and have the best sustained fraction from one of the running lines from the Derby prep races...
Sustained doesn\'t mean the best last fraction but in relation with the early pace that the horse ran against in conjunction with the last fraction exerted. An early runner can have the best sustained fraction (Silver Charm) in a Derby field.
Daddy Long Legs has the fastest (adjusted)last fraction from the Dubai Derby,But he ran that last fraction after facing a very pedestrian early pace of 115 and change. The early pace should be competitive with Hansen, Bodemeister,Take Charge Indy and the sprinter Trinniberg on the front end.
Streetbull wrote:
\"The winner has to be on the lead by the top of the stretch and have the best sustained fraction from one of the running lines from the Derby prep races...\"
If, as you say, the winner has to have the lead at the top of the stretch, what difference does his sustained fraction make? He could come home like a turtle and it wouldn\'t make any difference--since all the horses behind him would be prevented from winning the race by the fact that they did not have the lead at the top of the stretch.
Rich Curtis Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Streetbull wrote:
>
> \"The winner has to be on the lead by the top of
> the stretch and have the best sustained fraction
> from one of the running lines from the Derby prep
> races...\"
>
> If, as you say, the winner has to have the lead
> at the top of the stretch, what difference does
> his sustained fraction make? He could come home
> like a turtle and it wouldn\'t make any
> difference--since all the horses behind him would
> be prevented from winning the race by the fact
> that they did not have the lead at the top of the
> stretch.
The following post is from the research and post by Smalltimer two years ago before the Derby.....
The Stretch Call Says It All (676 Views)
Posted by: smalltimer (IP Logged)
Date: April 14, 2010 12:32PM
If a horse is NOT in the top 6 at the Stretch call, he will not hit the board. The Derby is a race thats decided by each horse\'s positional call within the race.
Let me illustrate:
I chose the last 6 Kentucky Derbies to point out some rather subtle happenings during the race. Among those last 6 races, there were 4 fast tracks, 2 sloppy tracks. There was a strong favorite in Big Brown, 3 solid favorites in Street Sense, Barbaro and Smarty Jones. These last 6 races were won by stalkers and closers.
I took all 120 horses and just used the 4 finishers in each race to come up with the following:
IF.....your horse is not his race placement position or passing horses from the 3/4 mile point to the 1 Mile pole, they will not hit the board. Why? 100% of the 25 horses that have hit the board in the last 6 Derbies say so. (I had to include both Brother Derek and Jazil due to their dead-head for 4th in 2006).
Examples from the 3/4 call to the 1 mile call in the last 6 races:
MTB 19 to 12, Pioneer 3 to 2, Musket 8 to 7, Papa 6 to 4;
Big Brown 6 to 1, Eight Belles 5 to 3, Denis 20 to 13, Tale 7 to 5;
Street Sense 17 to 3, Hard Spun 1 to 1, Curlin 14 to 8, Imawildguy 20 to 16;
Barbaro 4 to 1, Bluegrass 6 to 3, Steppen 11 to 6, Bro. Derek 14 to 10, Jazil 19 to 17;
Giacoma 18 to 11, Clo. Argument 6 to 4, Afleet 9 to 6, Don\'t Get Mad 19 to 10;
Smarty 2 to 2, Lion 1 to 1, Imperialism 13 to 10, Limehouse 6 to 6.
25 horses that made the supers and all 25 either maintained their running position in the race or were passing horses between the 3/4 and mile mark.
This stat is even more revealing: At the head of the STRETCH, with the exception of Wildandcrazy guy, all runners were in the top 7 at that Stretch call.
In addition, from the 3/4 call to the 1 mile call, 21 horses moved up and 4 stayed in the same numerical running positions.
Lastly. In the run from the 1 mile marker to the finish, 19 of the 25 horses were passing others, 4 horses maintained their numerical running position, and only 2 horses lost their numerical running positions (Hard Spun from 1st to 2nd, and Lion Heart from 1st to 2nd position).
The last horse to take the lead from the gate and still have the lead at stretch call was NOBODY. Not one of these really good 3 year olds could maintain the lead to the STRETCH call.
I know Miff will like this, but the only horse that did not have the lead at the Stretch call was Giacomo. All the others, MTB, Brown, Street Sense, Barbaro, and Smarty all won.
We all think we know \"how\" we envision the race might be ran. These last 6 Derbies represent a decent cross-section of how they might be run. We\'re likely to see a 2010 version that mirrors at least one of these type Derbies.
FWIW, at the 1/2 mile call, only 56% of those horses in the top half of the field eventually hit the board. Same thing at the 3/4 mark, only 56%. The race doesn\'t even start until between the 3/4 and mile point in the race.
Streetbull,
Again, if the winner has to have the lead at the top of the stretch (which, of course, he doesn\'t), what difference does it make how fast or slow he finishes from there?
Rich Curtis Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Streetbull,
>
> Again, if the winner has to have the lead at the
> top of the stretch (which, of course, he doesn\'t),
> what difference does it make how fast or slow he
> finishes from there?
Rich...
My post had no intention of putting out some dogmas about differences of fast/slow finishes from the top of the stretch... It was just to shed some light about the profiles of past Derby runnings. even though the impact value of the stats is so small...My intention was that all numbers earned whether by sheets or any numbers only point to races run up to a mile and an eighth... The sustained fractions earned from the Derby prep races is a strong tool to evaluate serious contenders. But to answer your question...no difference....
The Derby distance of a mile and a quarter is such a rarely run distance....Dr. Roman tried to use dosage to determine possible winners, but his system is so subjective and it backdates sires after the fact...that well...let others decide the usefulness of his theories...
Good luck in the Derby