It\'s that time of year again when I like to make picks after the pre-entries! As follows:
Distaff: Sightseek looks to be a lock with the
big guns on the sidelines.
Fillies: Halfbridled is the logic, FM IS going to take a lot of foolish money, but Hollywood Story may run big at a huge price!
Mile: Refuse to Bend will love this course!
Sprint: Valid Video runs well off layoffs, and race sets up for him.
F&M Turf: Heat Haze looks like a good fit here, even though Frankel\'s lot is usually over the top on BC day.
Colts: Tiger Hunt, because I have Eurosilver in the Derby futures!
Turf: High Chaparral to repeat.
Classic: What was shaping up as the race of the year a month ago now is just OK. It\'s Congaree\'s to lose, and if he does, Hold that Tiger!
Fast Eddie--
Pretty interesting selections. Although still a maiden, HOLLYWOOD STORY has a healthy pattern and perhaps is sitting on a much improved effort. Hopefully she draws well because I think she can hit the board at a huge price.
Juvenile Colts is wide open.
VALID VIDEO certainly a contender with his pattern. There\'s a lot of horses in the Sprint that you can eliminate just by going through the Thoros.
I\'m leery about supporting the Euros with all of the hot weather in So. Cal this week.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
>Classic: What was shaping up as the race of the year a month ago now is just OK. It\'s Congaree\'s to lose, and if he does, Hold that Tiger!<
My theory is that in 10 furlong races that are very deep in quality like the BC, KY Derby etc... stamina is often more important. In most cases, if you want to win a race that deep in talent you have to either \"resist or offer\" several challenges to other horses of significant ability - more often than in less competitive stakes at 10F. Congaree has always been suspect at 10 furlongs. His last win at 10F came under ideal conditions on a track that many felt favored the inside - which is where he was for much of the race. He\'s been terrific all year, but he is likely to get his stamina tested with MOD there early and a whole slew of other taking shots at both of them mid race and then late. I would need a decent price on Congaree. Couldn\'t take him short.
Classhandicapper,
Didn\'t you see where Baffert guaranteed a win?
You mean you don\'t believe him?
>Didn\'t you see where Baffert guaranteed a win? You mean you don\'t believe him?<
LOL. :-)
Didn\'t he guarantee a Triple Crown or two?
:-)
I make him a major contender. I can see the same fast speed figures everyone else sees. Not much value in that though. I consider him somewhat suspect at 10F because I have yet to see him get it under anything less than perfect conditions - which was the case a few back - and which probably won\'t be the case here. So unless I am getting compensated for that question mark, I\'d rather have one of the other contenders - all else being equal. Truthfully, I expect him to get bet less than some of the other contenders. So the odds might be reasonable if not attractive.
Classhandicapper wrote:
\"He\'s been terrific all year, but he is likely to get his stamina tested with MOD there early and a whole slew of other taking shots at both of them mid race and then late. I would need a decent price on Congaree. Couldn\'t take him short.\"
My friends this is as good as it gets.
Joe B:
Just read after I posted about the hot weather out west!! Will have to rethink the Euros; reminds me of GP some years back when
it was raging hot and they were up the track.
Colts is wide-open, but i\'m not sold on Cuvee. One turn NY horses usually flop out west.I still like \'Tiger in the classic as he
had time to acclimate and likes the dirt, but
he is going 2 turns (American-style) for the first time.
FastEddie---
I agree with your thoughts on CUVEE, especially at low odds. After two huge performance numbers, where does he go from here? I guess TGB can shed some thought on that question in his seminar.
You\'ll certainly get a nice price on \'Tiger in the Classic.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Heat wave breaks on Friday; high of 77 on Sat.
Anyone else in addition to bdhsheets and myself giving Dynever some serious consideration? Could you ask for a better pattern of development? Starts out with a 5 first out in Feb. Real nice and not so fast as to hurt. Moves forward 1 1/2 points going 2 turns for the 1st time and continues to move forward nicely in his next. Perhaps reacted to the new top but only slightly and pairs-up in his next 2 races. Is given 2 months off and comes back with a new top while continuing to move forward gradually. Then another gradual move forward to yet another new top down to a 1 1/2 at Phil in a race thoro-graph notes with a ! for a buried fast race. Then first out against older horses another real nice move forward down to a negative 1 3/4. Nothing indicates Dynever will not continue to develop and run another new top on Saturday is there? If this is not value what is. I\'m going to guess and say Jerry Brown will include Dynever as a contender and a live long shot in his seminar.
re cuvee:
doesn\'t he remind you of dehere. a monster sprint or two in the slop, then a nice one turn middle distance race at belmont (just off memory here, could be off a bit). dehere then went to the BC that year (also at SA) and flopped as one of the shortest priced favorites in history.
>>\"He\'s been terrific all year, but he is likely to get his stamina tested with MOD there early and a whole slew of other taking shots at both of them mid race and then late. I would need a decent price on Congaree. Couldn\'t take him short.\"
My friends this is as good as it gets.<<
The one thing that would negate that of course would be if Santa Anita was carrying speed especially well that day. THen it would be less of an issue :-)
I read Dynever differently in the specifics, but in the same general way.
He is improving and is not that far off the best horses right now.
As you probably know, I and several other speed figure makers think his WV Derby was better than a 2. More like a -1 or -2.
So when he ran in a 1 1/2 in the mud, I think he was not as sharp, but who cares. It was mud. Therefore, it should be excused or suspect regardless.
I think his Med Cup is actually a tad better than it looks. The pace for that race was slow and he moved into the hottest part while wide before flattening out. I would like him better if he earned those figures against the best of the division, but then he wouldn\'t be as long a price. IMO he is live - definitely for the exotics at least.
I would need a price to get involved.
classh,
what price would you need?
classh,
At what odds do you consider yourself being adequately \"compensated\"?
I\'ll stick with the TG numbers as they are instead of your \"adjusted\" figs, thank you.
Geez, Classh go out on a limb just once and either take a stand for or against the horse.
Phil
>1. what price would you need?
2.At what odds do you consider yourself being adequately \"compensated\"?
3.I\'ll stick with the TG numbers as they are instead of your \"adjusted\" figs, thank you.
Geez, Classh go out on a limb just once and either take a stand for or against the horse.<
I haven\'t made a final odds line yet. I want to see the post positions, how the track is playing, and final news. As of now...
I more or less think make Perfect Drift and MDO the most likely winners at this point. (PD a very very slight favorite). I would probably like PD more if this race wasn\'t just an afterthought for the trainer.
After that I like TMW, Dynever, and Congaree.
I don\'t think there\'s a very huge difference in probability of winning between 1-5 and then there are still other possibilities like Hold that Tiger and Pleasantly Perfect that have a chance too.
That is screaming that you need a price to participate. I wouldn\'t take less than 4-1 on PD. Maybe 6-1 on MDO. After that I want 10-1 or more on TMW, 15-1 on Dynever.
If you want me to take a stand, I\'ll say I won\'t bet Congaree unless the track is clearly playing to speed or unless the price is so crazy high I start twitching. :-)
The only insight into the race I have that isn\'t shared by everyone else on the planet is that these types of races tend to be very competitive. So with 10F not being Congaree\'s optimal distance (though it\'s possible) his stamina will be tested.
Taking stands is not the way I bet. I\'ll bet anyone if the price is right. I\'ll bet 2-3 horses in the same race if the price is right and bet none all day if no prices are right.
I have deep pockets and short arms. :-)
Upper Nile,
Please don\'t ever use any of my adjusted figures instead of TG\'s. I\'m just sharing my thoughts. Maybe there\'s one thing I say that will make sense to you or something someone will say in response that will help me. :-)
CH wrote,
\"That is screaming that you need a price to participate. I wouldn\'t take less than 4-1 on PD. Maybe 6-1 on MDO. After that I want 10-1 or more on TMW, 15-1 on Dynever.\"
The 15-1 is the only price you have a chance of getting my friend.
>The 15-1 is the only price you have a chance of getting my friend.<
I have no big problem with that. I would prefer participating, but I like winning money more than a like just having action.
:-)
There may be better betting possibilities in the Juvenile Filly race, but I haven\'t finished looking at it.
Who do you like in the Classic etc..?
I just want to tell you that everyone here loved when you said \"I and other speed figure makers.\" That was great.
Here\'s a thought-- in our analysis product, we say things like \"bet Secretariat to win at 4-1 or more\" as our play in the race, or give out an exacta box, or whatever-- you can see examples in the RBR. Yes, any horse can be bet at some price-- but you have a morning line to work with, as do we. Just give us your plays using that as a guide, meaning at the morning line odds your play would be such and such. Is that so hard?
I\'m looking forward to seeing that 40-50% profit on handle you mentioned you have been getting for a long time.
Odds guidelines can be useful and detrimental to your fiscal health. Take Volponi last year, TG said he was a play at 40-1 or more. With 10 minutes to post I went and bet Volponi and at that point in time he was about 35-1. Did I make a bad bet?? Did I go against their advice??
How about Starine, they recommended her at 15-1 or more, she went off at 12-1 and won.
Were you smart for not taking her at their \"projected value odds\"??
This can be very tricky and often lead to emotional mistakes in wagering. If you like a horse but get off him because you didn\'t like his odds and he rolls in, you can be UPSET for several races. Similar to when you get robbed on a bad DQ.
This is definately the case on EMOTIONAL days like BC Day where you have spent a lot of time (maybe months)trying to find the right one and you bail out because you didn\'t like his odds.
TGJB,
>I just want to tell you that everyone here loved when you said \"I and other speed figure makers.\"<
I\'m sure Beyer and Ragozin would enjoy the fact that I agreed with them on the WV Derby figure too.
Last night I asked Davidowitz what he thought about that WV Derby figure. He said he had no opinion, but said \"it didn\'t matter because Soto came out of the race and ran TMW to half length and that was enough\".
He\'s got some nerve being as stupid as me.
:-)
I rarely if ever look closely at the morning line odds. I read various articles and get a rough feel for the betting. Don\'t care about the morning line.
I could never in a million years produce my 40%-50% profits making an odds line on every horse in the race and then betting whichever ones are overlays. Never said I could do that. My odds lines across the whole field are not that accurate.
What I can do is occasionally find individual horses that I believe will either be overbet and/or underbet because of trips, faulty figures, and other insights and focus on or against them - with certain prices in mind before I get involved. That is how I have done it for the last 8 years. It\'s a very limiting procedure. I only make a few dozen bets per year. But that\'s OK. I\'m not selling anything, trying to make a living, or anything else. I\'m having fun.
All well and good, but if you don\'t have some form of guidelines it becomes impossible to pin anyone down for picks that can be evaluated. The only other way to go is do what the tip sheets and newspaper pickers do, and try to pick the most likely winner so you can say you had 4 winners listed.And I assume everyone here is sophisticated enough to realize that won\'t lead to a profit.
Ragozin would go into uncontrollable fits of laughter at the idea that you are a figure maker. I would very much like to be there for that conversation.
Beyer would nod his head politely and smile.
Yeah, Davidowitz-- only conversation I ever had with him was many years ago, when he called me up while I was watching a Stanley Cup final game, to yell at me about how my theories would never work. I had no idea who he was.
Gee, I guess we\'ll just have to take your word for it on all the results after the races. Again.
TGJB,
I understand where you are coming from.
It\'s a difficult task from both of our perspectives.
You would like to see it done publicly.
I have no interest in proving anything to you and only brought it up because you were ridiculing everything I said. I made the mistake of hoping you would take me slightly more seriously if I told you the truth - that I am beating the game.
Here\'s what makes it difficult for me.
For example: I made a bet on Great Notion in the Kings Bishop (ouch) because by the time the end of the day rolled around I thought there was some evidence that inside/speed might be better (it looked that way the day before too).
I saw Great Notion\'s \"Rebel\" race (way back) and thought it was much better than any speed figuermaker gave him credit for. He was hung out very wide being used extremely hard into a fast pace on the first turn, yet still hung around late in a route. I made a mental note of that ability because it looked like one of his weaker races on paper and I thought it was his best. He looked like he could be a really useful sprinter.
I watched his first sprint off a layoff and thought it was a useful prep for the King\'s Bishop.
In the morning, I had no idea I would be making that bet. Not only that, I really did not have a firm odds line in mind. That was a tough and deep field.
I just thought he had some \"hidden ability\", a potential bias advantage, and a good chance of moving forward. 16-1 got me to the window and I lost. 10-1 probably wouldn\'t have. Not sure of everything in between.
Key is, in the morning I had no clue because the bias was at least one reason for the bet and I didn\'t know that until later.
>Ragozin would go into uncontrollable fits of laughter at the idea that you are a figure maker. I would very much like to be there for that conversation.<
Don\'t know him and don\'t make figures anymore.
I made speed and pace figures in NY for many years in the 70s and 80s. I sold trainer information with another group in the 80s (computer stats etc..).
I gave all the pace data/beyer figures I accumulated in my computer in the 90s to the guy that sells Logic Dictates speed and pace figures, trips, bias etc... . He made speed figures that I bought and liked and expanded to pace figures after looking at my data. He is good so it saves me time.
Now what I do is look at Beyers, Logic, TG, for figures that are NOT reasonably consistent with each other. Then I go back to the race inputs for each, look at the trips, paces etc... to see if the differences are accounted for by methodology or by potential error.
If I believe someone has made an error, I make note for a potential bet.