I\'ve cautioned against looking backwards into history to interpret today\'s forward look into the Derby picture, but why don\'t we consider a possible reference point for Bodemeister\'s big win this past weekend. Check out comparisons to Sinister Minister...the popup big Blue Grass winner six years ago. The horse had Baffert, a one race form improvement, and a big, big flop in the Derby. Will history repeat?
Alm,
I have no idea who I am playing yet in the Derby so this is less a comment on Bode and more of a comment on the logic of your statement.
To compare a horse with Sinister Minister\'s pedigree (Old Trieste on top with the first two dams being by The Prime Minister and Hurry up Blue) to Bodemeister\'s pedigree with Empire Maker on top and the first three dams being by Storm Cat, AP Indy and Roberto) is a real stretch to say the least.
One never had any chance to get the distance, the other is bred as well to get the distance as anything we have seen in the race in a long time.
Bode could certainly spit the bit if he and Hansen get locked up in a crazy speed dual but just comparing two front running horses because they have the same trainer doesn\'t give a complete picture without at least mentioning the pedigrees.
And the fact that particular year in the Blue Grass the track was CRAZY rail speed favoring and Baffert sent that horse there knowing that.....and SENT him!!
Which by the way is about what he does with everything he sends to Oaklawn.
And that is only an Oaklawn analysis about Baffert. Not Bode.
Now about Apollo....
Al,
Sin Min was a smallish nickle bred slug compared to Bode.Bode had a foundation of two good figs before his latest big fig.Sin Min was the toss of all tosses for sheet players,pattern wise.Bode is a problem toss and has license to embarrass this group,don\'t see that in any other contender,going in.
If I posted his conversion pattern TG/RAGS/BEYER
vs the other contenders,you might tap out if unfazed by 3 weeks spacing, no 2yr old foundation,a possible early war up front.Rag friend, sharp sheet pattern reader,thinks Bode ran his derby on Sat and will regress but he\'s a devout Kool Aid Drinker!
What contender can you put in post 11 last Sat that has demonstrated the ability to run as fast as Bode did? I have not seen one yet.
Mike
alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'ve cautioned against looking backwards into
> history to interpret today\'s forward look into the
> Derby picture...
> The horse had Baffert, a one race form improvement,
> and a big, big flop in the Derby. Will history repeat?
Don\'t these \"big effort in final prep\" types usually stumble at the start in the Derby, or have some other gate trouble that results in them not winning but getting very close?
No science in this, of course (the 2-0-op pattern?)...just weird.
The spacing is the biggest issue for sure. This quote from Baffert after Bode\'s big maiden effort: "I'll have to give extra time and run him back (in a stakes race) in March somewhere\". Then four weeks of rest.
This quote from after the San Felipe,"He ran well. He just got a little tired. He ran a pretty hard race." Then five weeks spacing, including passing on the SA Derby. Part of that was probably earnings, but part was the need for rest. And now he runs even bigger, and is coming back in three (with a big jump up in weight). Will get one work at most.
I wouldn\'t be that shocked if in a couple of weeks they looked at the horse and decided to train up until the Preakness. Thing is though, he could regress and still probably win at Churchill.
(Thanks to Downey for the quotes).
what Jim said, and Sinister Minister ran a :13.41 final 1/8 that day over the craziest speed favoring track this sport has ever seen. what he did there was not going to work running 10f at CD. what Bode did on Sat will work in the Derby if he gets a similar trip. he won\'t stop. but will he get the same trip? how much does he regress if he\'s not comfortable through that opening mile? recall Rachel\'s Oaks from a few years back. she dominated slow fillies with a big figure and :12 final 1/8. it was easy to picture another fast eighth and a very fast mile and a quarter. well, she came back on short rest and collapsed in the next 1/16 of the Preakness (:07) with a more demanding trip (backed up 4 full points). Bode could do the same if forced to work harder, and that type of collapse would be fatal going an extra 1/8 vs a strong group.
what Borel does here is crucial, because I don\'t think Dominguez is going head-to-head with Smith.
Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> what Borel does here is crucial, because I don\'t
> think Dominguez is going head-to-head with Smith.
Michael. Do you think his horse gives him any other choice? I don\'t know if there is any other way to ride Hansen. The Gotham trip seems like an \"accident.\"
Some talk about Bellamy Road,Curlin, Bode comparison,losing after big fig preps.Can\'t imagine a racing reason why anything some other horse/horses has ever done before has relevance to how Bode will perform in the Derby.No matter how Bode does, you can back into the result after the race, same for all of them.
For those who follow, the track at OP was dead honest as far as running styles go on Sat,paths another story.
Mike
AJ,
Downey forgot another quote that Baffert made after the San Felipe \"he will go gorward off this race\" I think he did on Sat.
Mike
MonmouthGuy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael D. Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> >
> > what Borel does here is crucial, because I
> don\'t
> > think Dominguez is going head-to-head with
> Smith.
>
>
>
> Michael. Do you think his horse gives him any
> other choice? I don\'t know if there is any other
> way to ride Hansen. The Gotham trip seems like an
> \"accident.\"
I think the connections view the Gotham as a win with a good speed figure - a success. and I believe the trip was by design.
this Hansen guy appears to understand pace. Dominguez certainly does. I don\'t think they come to the conclusion that going head-to-head with Bode is the best way to win the race.
could be wrong though. they won the key Juvy setting a good pace and would prefer not to see Bode cruise along by himself. tricky call on the pace.
I think you have identified THE key issue in the race.
Remebering that this is a TG board, I want to be mindful that this is really about who has the best numbers.
But in this case, there are a number of them that are in the same category numbers wise that this is going to come down to who gets to run their race.
If Bode is allowed to go out there by himself, he will be able to run his race and likely win as he is the fastest horese coming in the race. If Hansen goes with him, he likely won\'t be able to run his race and one of the 5 or 6 others who have the right numbers/patten come into the mix.
I think Hansen is just so natually fast that Ramon won\'t have any choice. If he tries to take him back, he will take the horse out of his game and he will allow Bode to go uncontested. If he goes with him, Hansen has no shot and Bode\'s chances are significantly compromised.
I don\'t think any of these other front running types have the natural speed to keep up with those two and I don\'t see anyone else who wants to go on a suicide mission with Bode.
So, if we can figure out what Hansen is going to do, I think that\'s a huge huge key to this race
Why can\'t Bode rate just off the speed like he did in the San Felipe? Let Hansen and Borel go after it.
As for the Apollo thing, I think it simply reinforces the bounce theory. No racing at 2 means the horse must run some big races close together. Midnight Interlude, Summerbird, Dunkirk, Curlin most can\'t string the big figures.
Baffert was interviewed by HRTV this past Sunday and said he did not want to take Bode\'s weapon away from him, which is natural speed. I don\'t think they have any plans on rating him.
Would agree with what has been said here except I don\'t think there is much chance for an abnormally fast pace. If you look at the Derbies that collapsed with fast paces, you had more than 2 horses firing early. You had elements like Keyed Entry, Sinister Minister and others in that fast pace. The Monarchos year there were 4 or 5 horses pressing a fast pace.
If you take a look at the list of top 20 to 25 horses on the earnings list I count exactly 2 as frontrunners. Bodemeister and Hansen. (assuming Trinniberg doesn\'t go, which would change the race dramatically for me, if he did). I don\'t understand some of what I have heard from commentators about TAke Charge Indy being a frontrunner as I don\'t see this horse as a front runner at all. He will be 3 to 4 lengths off of it, on the rail. So, with 2 confirmed frontrunners, with two smart jockeys, I think the chances of a \"duel\" are pretty slim. Both have such natural speed, I don\'t think we see a slow pace, but I see a normal derby pace, so this is NOT the year to play the grindy, slug closers.
Right now, I am thinking there is one bigger factor than the pace. I am hoping the idiots that maintain the track at Churchill stop their 4-event streak of having a slow, deadish rail, speed-sapping track. After two Breeder\'s Cups in a row and 2 Derbies in a row of that kind of track, I am hoping for an honest racetrack for a change. Not one that compromises any horse with speed/brilliance as a weapon. If that is the case, I actually think this is a \"chalky\" Derby, at least for the top spot. Seeing Union Rags and Bodemeister as by far the most likely winners. The former is one bad ride away from coming into this race as the solid 2-1 favorite and am expecting him to run a huge race at Churchill. And Bodemeister just might have become an absolute monster. Looking for value in the vertical wagers, at least at this point.
Good luck
>The Monarchos year there were 4 or 5 horses pressing a fast pace.
Jimbo that year thats how it went but it may not have looked that way on paper going in. Every race that day had been won on the front end in near Track Record time. The frontrunner in the Derby was Songandaprayer who went in about 8 and 3.
But that now gets back to your track condition point. Which I actually thought Borel won on the rail on Super Saver in slop two yrs back
Good news we will get to know Post Postion about 24 hours before we know the Track Condition and about 48 hrs before we know Track Bias.......
I think Hansen IS rateable, has a win over the track and much more seasoning than Bode. If Bode stumbles out of the gate , Hansen goes wire to wire. If Bode wants the lead and gets it, Hansen will stalk him. Bode is gonna bounce in the Derby, and probably rebound at Pimlico.. The poly to dirt move also helps Hansen, who I believe bounced, probably to a 2. With the bounce out of the way, he pairs or runs a slightly faster number in Louisville. And he will be a price. In fact, I\'ll get close to 2-1 just to show...................
Silver Charm wrote:
\"Every race that day had been won on the front end in near Track Record time.\"
You really ought to look this up, Silver Charm, and the same goes for 2006 Blue Grass day.
Even getting the ideal trip, I can\'t see Hansen around after 8 1/2 furlongs. He can\'t rate. Bode can, plus can get the distance. Baffert will rate him behind the rabbits (which includes Hansen).
He gallopped out in front after the BG. He stays.
I wrote this post to get the discussion going, not because I put these two in the same category. So much of what we write here looks back on previous races and it\'s all pretty irrelevant. I am happy that the smartest guys on the site responded with lots of good thinking.
Personally, I don\'t care if Bodemeister got the fastest time of anyone coming into this race. At this point I am more interested in who enters, what posts they get, and which horses I think are sitting on a jump forward. There is much to think about.
I am almost certain that I will not be betting Baffert in this situation. I am personally satisfied that he\'s regressed in his approach to the Derby and that he really wrung the lemon in Oaklawn. I don\'t care if this horse rebounds and ever wins another race, but I don\'t think he will hit the board at Churchill, particularly if he draws outside of the others who have natural speed.
I am not a great user of TG sheets; I am too old fashioned. Having said that I have taken a ton of knowledge away from them...in terms of understanding a horse\'s pattern of moving forward or backward. I said it before about this Derby and I\'ll repeat it here...the animals looking to sit on a forward movement are Union Rags, Gemologist and Alpha. They may be slower than Bodemeister on paper right now, but after the Derby I think one of them will be seen as being faster.
As for the posts about Hansen HAVING to go early, that speculation was answered in NY when he took back and looked professional doing it. On the other hand, if they get parked outside he will have to be used too much himself.
Speculation on the effects of blooklines that will succeed also bothers me here, because it too is all backward looking. I respect the facts put forward about some of these horses, but who would you rather bet in a foot race, Jesse Owens or his full brother? (old joke)
And next year\'s great upcoming stallion isn\'t even known yet....Distorted Humor, Elusive Quality?
Jimbo,
what\'s up buddy?
great to see your name up here again.
I took a bit of a hiatus myself but it\'s the best few weeks of the year so we are back!
I very much agree with your comment on Take Charge Indy. He isn\'t a front running horse. He just went to the lead in the Florida Derby because there wasn\'t any speed. Ho doesn\'t have anywhere near the natural speed of Bode and Hansen.
In no way am I saying he can\'t win (I want to see all of the numbers first) but I am saying he won\'t be on the lead in this race.
Rich here is the story on the Monarchos Derby. I was wrong about the 8 and 3. I guess what stuck in my mind was the 44 and 3 half as everyone was suicidal to get the lead thinking thats all you needed to do to win.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/4006/monarchos-wins-kentucky-derby
These are the fractions for Sinister. There is a big difference in half miles and they had to go another 1/8th in the Derby.
22.91, 45.88, and 1:09.94
There was a similar Derby Day track speed bias mentality the year when Alysheba won. Class always tells in the Derby. And Sinister Minister and Songandaprayer and Co. were not Spenda Buc
sighthound Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Even getting the ideal trip, I can\'t see Hansen
> around after 8 1/2 furlongs. He can\'t rate.
> Bode can, plus can get the distance. Baffert will
> rate him behind the rabbits (which includes
> Hansen).
tough crowd. the horse wins the toughest BC Juvy in history, the Gotham, and runs a strong 2nd in the Blue Grass, and gets relegated to \"rabbit\".
Silver - you can\'t make your point without this?
Class always tells in the Derby.
What does this mean? No offense, but I just hate this kind of cliched stuff. I don\'t know ANYONE who took Sinister Minister seriously and they didn\'t feel that way because of \"class.\" If your point is that these horses couldn\'t carry their speed just say that. Cliches diminish your good points.
I\'m looking for good horse-specific points and one day when I have one I\'ll post it!
Actually here\'s one that\'s kind of off the wall - for Hansen fans - do you find this tail dye-ing story disturbing? I do! If they are all wrapped up in this nonsense before their big Prep I have my doubts about these guys, even if they have the best horse.
HP
I dont think class told when giacomo won.
You remind me that the horse who ran GREAT in there was Closing Argument. The classier horses brought up the rear.
HP
It was something to the effect that Van Berg said after the race. To him the speed biased track was irrelevant and they didnt change the tactics they hd set that morning when he and McCarron met at the Barn.
I believe as the story goes even McCarron himself was nervous as he watched one speed horse after another wire the field in the earlier races. When they met in the Pre-Derby paddock and Van Berg gave him the leg up, the orders were the same. \"Stick with the Plan\"....And the rest as they say is history.
Touch Gold not trying to pick a fight but I believe the Giacomo yr Mike Tabor and Biaconne entered a crappy rabbit. Those like Bellamy Road who couldnt sufficiently rate and had to press and chase (put Afleet Alex in there also though he was game) go it to Giacomo. I will give Afleet Alex a pass. Class told with the others however.....
Silver Charm wrote:
\"I was wrong about the 8 and 3.\"
You also said that every race that day was won on the front end, which is not even close to being true.
\"Class always tells in the Derby.\"
I\'ll agree with this as long as we define \"class\" as \"what the Derby tells,\" but I don\'t see any use in it beyond that.
Rich - Exactly. HP
Seems to me one of the biggest keys to getting the 1 1/4 is you have to have a horse that can relax, and I think there is more to that than just pace. Bode doesn\'t have a lot of experience. He also has a history of getting worked up and hot pre-race. So even if we assume he gets the pace AND doesn\'t regress due to his recent effort, will he still handle the stress of a 20 horse, rough and tumble field with a packed grandstand and infield? Will he be able to relax enough to work out a trip?
Those are big questions. And as someone already pointed out, Curlin couldn\'t do it. Look what he turned out to be...
So regardless of pace, I just think there are questions about this colt that just aren\'t going to be answered until after the race. Yo
For what it\'s worth, I\'ve been following this colt all spring since I heard that he was outworking Secret Circle in the AM when they were workmates. If you look at what Baffert has been doing with Bode in the AM it\'s obvious he gets what the colt needs to learn. Leading up to the ARK Derby, 2 and 3 works back, Baffert had Bode out behind a workmate and the whole point of the works were to teach the colt to stay behind, relax and wait until asked. Bode responded without being rank at all, waited, and then finished exactly when asked. In the one work he got stuck behind a wall of other workers and still weaved through traffic, and in the other he blew by his workmate (a small level stakes type) and then topped the work off with a DOUBLE gallop out of two, 12 and change 1/8ths around the bend. They were both good works, but the second one was a hell of a work for anyone who saw it or heard about it. To me it provided some evidence that Bode was at least coming around and learning what he needed to do - and more importantly that he was sitting on a big race.
For his last work before the ARK Derby, I found it very telling that although Bode clearly needed the earnings to make it to Louisville, Bullet Bob seemed confident enough to back off a bit and just have Bode breeze comfortably behind a workmate all the way around the track. Bode still caught his workmate in the last 100 feet or so, but again, it was another drill focused on getting this colt to learn to relax.
Turned out to be all the right moves because Bode\'s cruising speed was all he needed to wire the weak field at Oaklawn (I say week because to my eye he didn\'t beat much). Most importantly, Bode didn\'t get hot pre-race in front of a big, record setting crowd and he relaxed during the race even after a questionable break from an outside post. He comfortably widened his margin at every call, and his last 1/8th was pretty special according to the clock and visually.
But is he going to repeat that and get the 1 1/4?
No way to know for sure. And even if he gets a front running trip in 47.8 112 it isn\'t going to help him if he is rank or leaves his race in the paddock.
Going to be a good Derby to bet I think.
I dont have the charts from that yr. Just going by memory. So maybe I am losing mine.
I am getting the message and know when its time to leave the neighborhood.
Does anybody else think Oaklawn was kind to speed on the day that Bode ran?
The trainer is trying to train a horse. The owner is trying to get publicity.
\"The faster they run, the prettier they get\".
Easy guys (grin) ... I think the horse is exceptional, gifted, and has speed to burn, and is a quality, Grade 1 animal.
I don\'t think he\'ll get 1 1/4.
And yes, I may very well have Derby Pie all over my face, as I\'ve already decided he won\'t be in any of my Derby superfectas, no matter his post or how he\'s training.
If so, it won\'t be the first time! Just take my money from the pools and say, \"thanks\"
I would bet him to win the Preakness by 5.
Just watched the 04 Derby. Smarty rating of Lion Heart till the turn, then going on. Seems to me, the same thing could happen this year. Without Trinniberg and given that TCI is not a front runner (just the race dynamics/bias last time), who else is the speed? Maybe IHA. But isn\'t that about it? What is to stop Bodi from running a Smarty race? Sitting off Hansen in perfect position? And Bodi did rate perfectly well in the San Felipe, so it\'s not like he\'s shown he can\'t do it.
Something else about 2004 - the margin at the line was not a big as you\'d think. Lion Heart was a very good horse.
Of course Smarty had more seasoning, but he was on short rest just like Bodi. And Hansen...well if there\'s a more identical version of Lion Heart (front runner, but not cheap speed in the least) I haven\'t seen him.
Edit - Ok, just went back and looked at the figs from 04. Without having this year\'s final figs, certainly Lion Heart had many more fast figs than Hansen, and Smarty, well we know about him, bar Tricky Dickie and Big Brown, as good as it gets. And of course the track was a moat. And not poly to dirt to worry about. So not saying the comparison is perfect. Just putting it out there
Thanks Jim.
It was a board hiatus, not a gambling hiatus (unfortunately :)
Agree with you that I think Take Charge Indy has a \"puncher\'s chance\" and will be on a few of my tickets (if I was betting today, which luckily I don\'t have to, my horizontal wagers would be something like 50% Union Rags, 30% Bodemeister, and 10% each on Take Charge Indy and Alpha)
It is an interesting time of the year, that is for sure. Getting a little frustrated with the lack of information out there about the Oaks horses, as I love the Oaks-Derby double and also the Oaks-Early Times Classic-Derby pick-3. Haven\'t seen the Baffert monster Princess Arabella\'s name mentioned, just a rumored sickness after the Sunland win. Also haven\'t read whether either Eden\'s Moon or Reneesgotzip are gonig in the oaks (would toss both of them).
I guess we will see that stuff in the next week or so.
Good luck,
Jim
Thank you Dr. Hansen for sending your beautiful horse to the Kentucky Derby.
It leads me to speculate;
In addition to the 10 horses who are not legitimate contenders anyway, Hansen\'s need to lead eliminates another half dozen who would just be commute traffic with a slower pace.
So when the race really starts, at the head of the stretch, on May 5 - I just need to figure out the order of 3-5 horses. Since even that is too difficult for me, I\'ll just go with what I see as the best value and a Scat Daddy exacta of 30/1 X 30/1 with the first ever Euro KY Derby Champion.
By the way if DLL galloped out in :12 in his last then he ran a mile and a quarter in a tic or two over 2:00. He didn\'t did he? I better check the TwinSpires race replay.
If Bodemeister runs off (snicker) the tickets might be worth more as collector memorabilia than pari-mutuel pay-offs. He did look good though. Where will he be vs a Blue Tail.
phil23 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Just watched the 04 Derby. Smarty rating of Lion
> Heart till the turn, then going on. Seems to me,
> the same thing could happen this year. Without
> Trinniberg and given that TCI is not a front
> runner (just the race dynamics/bias last time),
> who else is the speed? Maybe IHA. But isn\'t that
> about it? What is to stop Bodi from running a
> Smarty race? Sitting off Hansen in perfect
> position? And Bodi did rate perfectly well in the
> San Felipe, so it\'s not like he\'s shown he can\'t
> do it.
>
>
> Something else about 2004 - the margin at the line
> was not a big as you\'d think. Lion Heart was a
> very good horse.
>
> Of course Smarty had more seasoning, but he was on
> short rest just like Bodi. And Hansen...well if
> there\'s a more identical version of Lion Heart
> (front runner, but not cheap speed in the least) I
> haven\'t seen him.
>
> Edit - Ok, just went back and looked at the figs
> from 04. Without having this year\'s final figs,
> certainly Lion Heart had many more fast figs than
> Hansen, and Smarty, well we know about him, bar
> Tricky Dickie and Big Brown, as good as it gets.
> And of course the track was a moat. And not poly
> to dirt to worry about. So not saying the
> comparison is perfect. Just putting it out there
That race was largely the product of the sealed racetrack engineered in the wake of the torrential rains, earlier in the day. Don\'t think that race goes quite that way over a normal, cuppy Churchill strip.
The other two stalker/pace types in that field Limehouse and Read the Footnotes
were shuffled or checked before the first turn.
JR Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Does anybody else think Oaklawn was kind to speed
> on the day that Bode ran?
Shhh. Let those that are mesmerized by the Big Fig believe it was earned over a fair surface.
Baffert\'s most successful Derby horses did not come in off big tops. POTN came in off a 0.5 top, War Emblem a pair, Real Quiet a 0.5 top, and Silver Charm a pair. The closest thing to a big top and a good finish was Congaree, who ran off a 2.5 top and paired. All the other tops led to regressions. Here they are, most recent on top:
3.75 top - 4.5 back
2.25 top - 17 back
3 top - 5 back
8 top - 15 back
3 top - 12 back
6 top - 9 back
3.5 top - 1.75 back
4.5 top - 1.5 back
3.75 top - 1.5 back
We talked about Sinister Minister, but the other interesting Baffert runners from the \'06 Derby are Point Determined, who came in off a 3 point top, took good money, and backed up 5 points, and Bob and John, who also ran off a 3 point top and took action, and collapsed.
Bode might look a lot like Congaree, who ran off a 2.5 top on 3 weeks rest after the visually impressive 1:47.9 in the Wood. Congaree paired, and probably would have run faster had he not gotten sucked into the brutal pace. Baffert\'s best Derby performances, though, involved horses coming in off pairs or fractional moves.
Does anybody else think Oaklawn was kind to speed on the day that Bode ran?
JR,
12 dirt races, 6 won by off the pace/closers types, the other 6 winners speed/up close types.
Two services scored the surface honest with one not liking the rail all along the backside.
Mike
this is an awesome analysis, thank you so much for doing the work
Miff,
If you look at the last 6 races vs. the first 6 races you will see the speed bias for the latter races. Bode was impressive but not as impressive as everyone is touting. He had all the conditions his way against a terrible field where the 2nd best horse is suspect at the distance. All you see and hear is that he came home in 11 4/5 but he also came home in 37 4/5. There was plenty to like as he is probably the best of this bunch. the question is whether its too many races in a short span and if it will take its toll.
You\'re not kidding.
Just,
The wires later in the card can also be somewhat attributed to the best horses winning,check those wire winners going in. I do not subscribe to any theory where a track playing honest all day suddenly becomes biased sans weather or track maintenance changes.
As far as Bode, many are also disregarding that he was used hard the whole first quarter getting over the 2 horse(broke a step outward also).Yes,he got to relax in the middle part and then ran away from a decent horse late.A mild wind was blowing was against BODE into the first fast quarter and in the stretch,for whatever thats worth.It did not seem to be relevant,imo,others valued it.
What Bode will do in the derby is a very tough call for me but those trying to make him look like anything but much the fastest over 90% of these going in must be looking at figures other than what I am.
Good Luck
Mike
Mike-- actually, over 85%, top to top. Not to split hairs...
You\'re right about the tough call. Especially after the Downey research. Might have to use that in the seminar...
Jimbo-- the Oaks is a much simpler race, and possibly a great betting one depending on who ends up going. Shhhh....
Package later this week, We\'re going out with it before the Lexington.
Jimbo, interesting to me that you didn\'t mention gemologist.
I dont\' know his last figure yet from the wood but why are you leaning against him but including Alpha who he beat at this stage?
Not saying I disagree, just curious.
thanks
big forward moves prior to the Derby was the study (misleading the way I labeled it), just about all were tops though. the two that ran poorly in the 99 Derby after taking a lot of money, General Challenge and Excellent Meeting, both included in the study, were coming off big forward moves, but not big new tops. GC\'s was a somewhat ugly 4.5 move with a \"bi\".
Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Baffert\'s most successful Derby horses did not
> come in off big tops. POTN came in off a 0.5 top,
> War Emblem a pair, Real Quiet a 0.5 top, and
> Silver Charm a pair. The closest thing to a big
> top and a good finish was Congaree, who ran off a
> 2.5 top and paired. All the other tops led to
> regressions. Here they are, most recent on top:
>
> 3.75 top - 4.5 back
> 2.25 top - 17 back
> 3 top - 5 back
> 8 top - 15 back
> 3 top - 12 back
> 6 top - 9 back
> 3.5 top - 1.75 back
> 4.5 top - 1.5 back
> 3.75 top - 1.5 back
>
>
> We talked about Sinister Minister, but the other
> interesting Baffert runners from the \'06 Derby are
> Point Determined, who came in off a 3 point top,
> took good money, and backed up 5 points, and Bob
> and John, who also ran off a 3 point top and took
> action, and collapsed.
>
> Bode might look a lot like Congaree, who ran off a
> 2.5 top on 3 weeks rest after the visually
> impressive 1:47.9 in the Wood. Congaree paired,
> and probably would have run faster had he not
> gotten sucked into the brutal pace. Baffert\'s best
> Derby performances, though, involved horses coming
> in off pairs or fractional moves.
FWIW, I thing Congaree was also a lightly raced 2YO. Maybe ran once??
yeah, had just the one two-year old race at Dmr. the buzz around Congaree was very similar to what we\'re seeing with Bode. Cong went off a bit higher (7-1) than Bode (9-2?), mostly because we had a big favorite that year in Point Given.
Michael D. Wrote:
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> big forward moves prior to the Derby was the study
> (misleading the way I labeled it), just about all
> were tops though. the two that ran poorly in the
> 99 Derby after taking a lot of money, General
> Challenge and Excellent Meeting, both included in
> the study, were coming off big forward moves, but
> not big new tops. GC\'s was a somewhat ugly 4.5
> move with a \"bi\".
And that was one of the most bizarre runnings of modern times . . .
I was there, sitting upstairs on the third level, so had a
great overall view . . . that was the \"amoeba\" Derby, in which
there was no dedicated frontrunner to stretch the field out . . .
they all raced in the tightest bunch you\'ve ever seen for at least a half . . .
McCarron recalls he was caught between horses and his mount was actually
carried a couple of strides without touching the ground, between two others . . .
Had Congaree at 300:1. Was excited for about 1/2 a second at the top of the stretch. Still haven\'t forgiven Monarchos, who was my worst result, in a race I had completely middled.
Regarding Point Given - I seem to recall his work was raved about up and down the backstretch as the greatest ever. And look what happened. Too much is made these days of the \"best\" working horse at CD. For every horse that runs well that worked good, there is one that worked good that runs poorly. But people never bring those up. Selective memory.
Michael D. Wrote:
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> Baffert\'s most successful Derby horses did not
> come in off big tops. POTN came in off a 0.5 top,
> War Emblem a pair, Real Quiet a 0.5 top, and
> Silver Charm a pair. The closest thing to a big
> top and a good finish was Congaree, who ran off a
> 2.5 top and paired. All the other tops led to
> regressions. Here they are, most recent on top:
>
> 3.75 top - 4.5 back
> 2.25 top - 17 back
> 3 top - 5 back
> 8 top - 15 back
> 3 top - 12 back
> 6 top - 9 back
> 3.5 top - 1.75 back
> 4.5 top - 1.5 back
> 3.75 top - 1.5 back
>
>
> We talked about Sinister Minister, but the other
> interesting Baffert runners from the \'06 Derby are
> Point Determined, who came in off a 3 point top,
> took good money, and backed up 5 points, and Bob
> and John, who also ran off a 3 point top and took
> action, and collapsed.
>
> Bode might look a lot like Congaree, who ran off a
> 2.5 top on 3 weeks rest after the visually
> impressive 1:47.9 in the Wood. Congaree paired,
> and probably would have run faster had he not
> gotten sucked into the brutal pace. Baffert\'s best
> Derby performances, though, involved horses coming
> in off pairs or fractional moves.
When I started this string of posts, this is exactly the kind of response I was hoping for. You did a great piece of work here, something I would not have the time nor patience to do. But it made a point that was only an impression I\'ve had about Baffert. He\'s a great trainer for sure, but he seems so desperate to repeat his Triple Crown successes that he\'s changed his style...pressing horses to big efforts to get them ready. Pletcher on the other hand has learned to move in the opposite direction and he may be more competitive than ever as time goes on. And he\'s not the only one. As someone pointed out a few days back, beware of our friend Kieran third off the layoff. That\'s not a freak statistic, it\'s a trainer intended outcome. Doesn\'t always work, but his Alpha may be sitting on a big one.
I thought Kieran was hot 2nd off the layoff. Is it 3rd off the layoff? I have some worries about Alpha being urged a little early in the Wood and the subsequent infection. I am anxiously awaiting the numbers. Pre- numbers I would play Dullahan. lets see where I end up.
I\'ve got a feeling that once the numbers come out there will be a new \"wiseguy\" horse that no one has been talking about yet.
What do you think about the combination of antiboitcs, legs and colts 2 weeks before the KY Derby?
The perfect recipe for disaster.
Can we buy numbers for top 20-25 Derby horses anytime soon?
Not sure if you saw Jerry\'s post earlier in this thread:
TGJB Wrote:
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[snip]
>
> Package later this week, We\'re going out with it
> before the Lexington.
http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,72357,72415#msg-72415
Antibiotics are never a plus.
Nice Post Michael!