This is one of the tougher Wood Memorials in recent memory. Lots of angles. Read that the Zito horse got surgery for a flipped palate so he could get better too.
Are you saying that you think this is a tough race to bet or a tough race to win?
alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Are you saying that you think this is a tough race
> to bet or a tough race to win?
Both...
-Alpha gets the rail and should stalk and run well but is probably not fully cranked as he has enough earnings and he has a jock who might not be at his best just coming back from a bad spill injury.
-Lumber guy has nice racesso far is stretching out first time and will likely face pace pressure from Teeth of the dog but could potentially be the outside stalking speed if he can rate
- Gemologist could tuck behind The Lumber Guy and Teeth of the dog or go outside of them and stalk or he might get stalked by the Lumber Guy. He Will be fully cranked since he needs earnings so i\'m leaning this way but he might be forced to keep The Lumber guy honest which would soften him up for the closers-
-Street Life has been a scary closer. No pace in last and still ran over the front runner in the stretch..If this one gets pace look out..
-My Adonis is hard knocking and keeps coming at the end of races so if he gets pace there is a chance
-Casual trick had the palate surgery and certainly looked like a horse that lost his air in the last two races..His first two route races were pretty good and he should be in a good spot turning for home.
Can\'t find a good reason to play Teeth of the dog or Tiger\'s walk so won\'t comment..
Still have to see the sheets so all this may be for nothing but it certainly looks like a tough race with lots of angles.
Their general riding styles with horses with pace suggest that JV will be up on the neck of the frontrunner in the early part of the race and JC will have Gemologist as close as he can hold him behind the pace. If Gemologist is a 9 furlong (or longer) horse, he probably can be expected to take this one. If he turns out to be more like that Discreet Cat horse of TAP\'s, we should look for a closer here.
JV is on Tiger Walk so he won\'t be applying the pace pressure.
My guess is Teeth of the dog goes out with The Lumber Guy stalking with Gemologist stalking them..But stranger things have happened..
An interesting wild card here is the fact the Dominguez is just coming back from a pretty serious injury. He has only two mounts Saturday including Alpha. I would think if he was 100% he\'d be all over the card. Certainly something I\'m going to think about before taking a short price on that one, though I have not seen the TGs yet.
HP
Also for out of towners it has been bone dry here and will continue to be that way through the weekend, so don\'t worry about slop, etc.
HP
So here\'s what I see.
Alpha and My Adonis probably have the best numbers in the race and there doesn\'t seem to be any reason to assume they are not contenders here.
Gemologist has a forward looking pattern with small steps ahead. One more move forward puts him in the mix with the two above.
Although Street Life also has a gradually improving pattern, he may be slower than these three. Not out of it, but he needs a bigger jump to contend than they do.
Casual Trick is counting on a myectomy to compete? Good luck against these.
Teeth of the Dog is not fast enough and doesn\'t show anything to convince me he will jump up to beat this group.
Tiger Walk has been handled well, but is slower and needs the big ones to stop for him to get by.
I really respect Hushion, but The LumberGuy hasn\'t gone 2 turns...he\'s not going to get a slow paced trip, which I think he needs to stretch his above average, but not spectacular speed.
Personally I don\'t think is a particularly tough group. I\'ll stick with Pletcher in this case...with a horse that appears ready for a breakthrough race.
alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> So here\'s what I see.
> Personally I don\'t think is a particularly tough
> group. I\'ll stick with Pletcher in this
> case...with a horse that appears ready for a
> breakthrough race.
Alm:
You better hope so, or your rather excellent Derby future selection is outside
looking in in terms of earnings.
I look forward to watching Caleb\'s Posse, who to me was clearly last years top 3YO
on the basis of his 4 graded stakes wins, including Grade 1 scores in the BC Dirt
Mile and the Kings Bishop (while many say that Caleb passed a leg weary Uncle Mo
in the Kings Bishop, his burst of speed in the last 1/8th mile was rather
breathtaking).
Trainer von Hemel has stated that the Met Mile is his objective with Caleb, and
it is an important race in Caleb\'s 2012 campaign with the BC Mile being run at 2
turns at SA this year. While Caleb was not really ineffective at two turning last
year (winning the Ohio Derby (Gr 3) at 1-1/16th, running second in the Rebel
behind The Factor and in front of eventual Ark Derby winner Archarcharch, and
winning the one mile Smarty Jones at OP), it is clear he is a special colt in one
turn races.
As HP stated, a glorious weather weekend on tap in NY, with four graded stakes on
the Wood card (and since the Clueless Clowns will never change, there is an all
maiden pick 4 early in the card), the opening of Keeneland (cmon, haters, its
very good racing -- synthetic or not) plus the Masters, with Tiger against the
World. (I\'ll be pulling pretty strongly for the World here.)
While I\'m rambling along, let me also mention that this weekend begins the
pursuit of Lord Stanley\'s Cup. To me the NHL is very unique in that there is a
marked difference between the regular season and the playoffs: Most notably, the
controversial \"shootout\" tie breaking mechanism is not utilized, but also the
intensity level, the way teams approach the game (much less chippiness) and the
way the games are refereed makes for compelling sport; that being said, the
moment the team I follow -- the NJ Debtvils -- is eliminated, I won\'t watch
another game.
LET\'S GO RANGERS !!!!
Agree on Caleb\'s Posse. As for the way I view the Wood, I\'m trying to take it outside the context of what I want to have happen. I think the guys at Winstar have managed their horse for a 2-race series, the Wood and the Derby. If I am right he is pretty fully cranked for this race and we will see a new stronger number, which they will hope can be paired a month later. Also remember that I am hoping to get Union Rags at 5-1 or better in the Derby and, if he wins at that level, I will win far more than I bet on Gemologist in the Future. If UR is lower, I have to bet vertically in the Derby, which is my real weak suit.
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ...the opening of Keeneland (cmon, haters, its
> very good racing -- synthetic or not) plus the
> Masters, with Tiger against the World. (I\'ll be
> pulling pretty strongly for the World here.)
Richie...you can root for synthetic, but you can\'t root for Tiger? Ew.
Tiger has done far less damage to golf than syn has done to racing, IMO...and the whole thing with \"rich handsome guy can\'t control his Johnson\" (if this is what irks you about Tiger) as a devastating societal crime is overblown.
As Chris Rock once said, \"Men are about as faithful as their options\". It\'s true. As a gender, we are poon hounds. It\'s in our DNA.
Not guilty by reason of DNA? Cool. And there\'s no reason to limit this to sex. DNA contains multitudes. Let the games begin anew, in all areas of life, each of us playing according to the rules set down by our DNA.
Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> richiebee Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > ...the opening of Keeneland (cmon, haters, its
> > very good racing -- synthetic or not) plus the
> > Masters, with Tiger against the World. (I\'ll be
> > pulling pretty strongly for the World here.)
>
> Richie...you can root for synthetic, but you can\'t
> root for Tiger? Ew.
>
> Tiger has done far less damage to golf than syn
> has done to racing, IMO...and the whole thing with
> \"rich handsome guy can\'t control his Johnson\" (if
> this is what irks you about Tiger) as a
> devastating societal crime is overblown.
>
> As Chris Rock once said, \"Men are about as
> faithful as their options\". It\'s true. As a
> gender, we are poon hounds. It\'s in our DNA.
Yeah, I\'m pretty sure Tiger is the only golfer to ever screw around. Those Euro guys are such upstanding fellows.
Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Richie...you can root for synthetic, but you can\'t
> root for Tiger? Ew.
A lot of the races I bet on at Kee are turf. And how can you not support a place
that still gets large live crowds and still draws young people?
Speaking of great race places, I am going to St. Louis for my 35th college
reunion in a couple of weeks. I will be at Fairmount Park on Friday night, April
20. If you want to make the trip down I-55, dinner and drinks are on me.
> Tiger has done far less damage to golf than syn
> has done to racing, IMO...and the whole thing with
> \"rich handsome guy can\'t control his Johnson\" (if
> this is what irks you about Tiger) as a
> devastating societal crime is overblown.
>
> As Chris Rock once said, \"Men are about as
> faithful as their options\". It\'s true. As a
> gender, we are poon hounds. It\'s in our DNA.
I have no problem with men being men. My problem with Tiger Woods goes back to
days far before he banged his first waitress or porn star.
Tiger acts like a spoiled brat on the golf course. I mean if he was a tatooed
thug in the NBA, this might be acceptable, but the golf course is still and
hopefully always will be an arena where self respect, respect for your competitors
and respect for course etiquette are part of the game. Unless you think you are
above it all, as Tiger sometimes does.
I think Chris Rock\'s stand up is as good as any we have today, but without
Richard Pryor 40 years ago, there probably wouldn\'t be a Chris Rock, both in terms
of race and material. Chris Rock acknowledges this. Did you ever hear Tiger Woods
talk about Lee Elder or Charlie Sifford?
I work with an African American woman who once was looking in the newspaper at
the pictures of Tiger\'s blonde Scandanavian wife and his harem of white trash
bimbos, at which point she said, \"Tiger, Tiger whats a sistah gotta do?\"
\"And, of course, he became the first African- American to win a major championship of golf, in a tournament that did not have its first black competitor until Lee Elder broke the color barrier there in 1975.
Elder had flown up from his south Florida home Sunday morning and was standing no more than 50 yards away when Woods arrived at the first tee for his final round. As Woods put his peg in the ground, the second floor balcony of the Augusta National clubhouse was mostly occupied by many of the people who worked there, men and women of color, some in white waiter jackets, a few still carrying the brooms and dust bins they used to keep the place immaculate for a club that had only two black members at the time.
As Woods prepared to hit his first shot, Elder had tears in his eyes when he said, "No one will turn their head when a black man walks to the first tee."
As Woods came out of the Butler Cabin, where he was helped into his new green jacket by Faldo for the CBS cameras, he happened to spot Elder outside in the milling crowd.
"Thanks for making this possible," he whispered in his ear before being swept along to his post-round interview in the media center where he also paid tribute to other black golfers who never had the opportunity to play in a Masters.
"I wasn't the pioneer," he said. "Charlie Sifford, Lee Elder and Ted Rhodes played that role. I thank them. I was thinking about them and what they've done for me. I said a little prayer and said thanks to those guys. You are the ones who did it for me."
http://www.globalgolfpost.com/opinion/tiger%E2%80%99s-coming-out-party/
Thanks for correcting me, Rich.
Rich Curtis Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Not guilty by reason of DNA? Cool. And there\'s no
> reason to limit this to sex.
Easy there, no need to pop a brain vein. Didn\'t say \"not guilty\". Didn\'t even imply it.
I\'m just never surprised when a guy strays -- no matter WHAT he has at home. Men aren\'t \"wired\" for monogamy -- that\'s largely a female concept that has to be learned and accepted. Some of us would hump a tree stump if nobody told us to knock it off.
Alm,
Thanks for sharing your outlook on the race. It seems everybody else ran away from the race thread to talk about Tiger Woods.
Since vertical betting is your weak suit, what do you think you are doing wrong? It is mine too. My main problem--as I see it--is I know that picking the second and third horses does not necessarily mean picking the next two best ones after the winner. But that doesn\'t leave me with a method.
On another topic, since you seem to know your way around horses and trainers, look at The Lumber Guy\'s workouts. Is it likely he was worked 3 furlongs on February 24 and then raced on February 25? Or is it more likely an error in the workout report somewhere along the line?
Good luck tomorrow,
Mike
Rick B wrote:
\"Easy there, no need to pop a brain vein.\"
Calm down, Rick. No need to read my post and then start jumping up and down, pounding the desk, and screaming out the window. (Hey, this tactic is fun!)
\"Men aren\'t \'wired\' for monogamy -- that\'s largely a female concept that has to be learned and accepted.\"
The greatest trick that women ever pulled off was getting their husbands to believe this female-wired-for-monogamy nonsense. Live ones indeed.
Rich Curtis Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Rick B wrote:
>
> \"Easy there, no need to pop a brain vein.\"
>
> Calm down, Rick. No need to read my post and
> then start jumping up and down, pounding the desk,
> and screaming out the window. (Hey, this tactic is
> fun!)
Aw, you\'re not mad, are you? Where do you think I learned this? You should be flattered.
\"Aw, you\'re not mad, are you?\"
No. Getting mad is not in my DNA, and DNA is destiny.
When it comes to philandering golfers, the one I cheer for is Fred Couples. Pretty sure he\'s the only Masters winner also to have won a Pulitzer.
And, yes. I\'m carbon-dating myself with that one.
msola1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> On another topic, since you seem to know your way
> around horses and trainers, look at The Lumber
> Guy\'s workouts. Is it likely he was worked 3
> furlongs on February 24 and then raced on February
> 25? Or is it more likely an error in the workout
> report somewhere along the line?
>
> Good luck tomorrow,
>
> Mike
Hey Mike: assuming they got the right horse in the workout, which they sometimes screw up, it\'s not that odd that this guy was worked a day before a race...especially at a short distance. I\'ve had trainers do this in the past to take the mental edge off a horse who needed to do something and not just jog or gallop. Please don\'t read too much into it.
As for my vertical problem I could never figure it out. It\'s just easier for me to see possible winners as opposed to horses who might run well, but not have a chance to win. I\'ve had my share of big tri\'s,but my records prove that I lose overall when betting in that direction. My strongest ROI comes in Win-Place betting and in recent years I have done pretty well in P3s and occasionally P4s.
The best thing I can recommend is that you follow the blogging on Thorograph to pick up some background on reading patterns. Some of the people here are very, very advanced in that regard. Whether or not you use the Thorograph sheets regularly you can interpret a lot from ordinary past performances.
msola1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> On another topic, since you seem to know your way
> around horses and trainers, look at The Lumber
> Guy\'s workouts. Is it likely he was worked 3
> furlongs on February 24 and then raced on February
> 25? Or is it more likely an error in the workout
> report somewhere along the line?
Mike:
H Allan Jerkens was known to breeze horses ON THE MORNING THEY RACED,
some of them rather rapidly.
Fred paid dearly for his philandering. But he sure looked happy today. An idol.
the race favs bother me, before alpas and gemos latest races, they were.. the same as the rest.
alpha 4pt top, nice rest, rail may hurt with speed drawn next, and outside
causual same top before
alphas move, typical zito win pattern
adonis couple pt move off 2 yr old top, one of the ones most likely to move forward
teeth to slow
street 6 pt development 4-1 not
gem nice first start- of 2yr old year, one mile bothers me, short rest race too
tiger looks to me a move is coming, slower than rest but 15-1 is ok
lumber has the speed
I am with Tiger not in the masters but the wood
pardon the writing, new to a laptop
I brought Couples into it only because bringing him up seemed to imply a few points I\'m too lazy to make conclusively, and obviously you got that. No offense intended. I too would love to see him win it, though if I had to pick one halfway it would be Rory.
BB(magicnight@home)
To follow up on the richiebee/Rich Curtis discussion:
Recommend \"Uneven Lies\" The Historic Story of African-Americans in Golf with Forward by Tiger Woods. Published by The American Golfer
Couples won\'t win and it has nothing to do with imagined golf gods. unless by golf gods they mean karma.
For this game you need, above all things, to be in a tranquil frame of mind.
- Harry Vardon
Flighted Iron Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Couples won\'t win and it has nothing to do with
> imagined golf gods. unless by golf gods they mean
> karma.
>
>
>
> For this game you need, above all things, to be in
> a tranquil frame of mind.
> - Harry Vardon
Brave prediction there.
Who cares, its still a great story to watch a man at this stage of his career compete on this stage.
I\'m sure you probably thought the same thing when Tom Watson was contending for the British Open last year.
Thanks for the positive energy this morning.
P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Flighted Iron Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Couples won\'t win and it has nothing to do with
> > imagined golf gods. unless by golf gods they
> mean
> > karma.
> >
> >
> >
> > For this game you need, above all things, to be
> in
> > a tranquil frame of mind.
> > - Harry Vardon
>
>
> Brave prediction there.
>
> Who cares, its still a great story to watch a man
> at this stage of his career compete on this
> stage.
>
> I\'m sure you probably thought the same thing when
> Tom Watson was contending for the British Open
> last year.
>
> Thanks for the positive energy this morning.
P-Dub,
First off Watson has won 39 times including 8 majors vs Couples 15 times and
1 fortunate major. Watson is one of the all-time greats and Couples wins the all-time popularity contest. The one thing all golfers agree on is the merit system because it eliminates the clueless clown political element.
Couples captains pick of Woods for the presidents cup was a farce at best.Couples referred to Woods as the \"greatest player forever\" and that was his
reasoning for the pick. Similar to his lucky win at augusta so was his pick in the sense that it Happened to be Woods point to clinch.
Fact is Woods isn\'t in the top five of any top category in professional match
play and at the time of selection there were many guys on their merit who deserved the spot! Ask Couples how the \"greatest player forever\" is enjoying the
georgia pines. Mind you i\'m not rooting against Woods,but he\'s looking more like
a (NY bred slow rat)than freddy\'s prize pig.
Personally i\'m rooting for the likes of Westwood,Mcilroy,Bubba,Kuchar and Scott. Merit!!
and Philly Mick!
Yes, Couples is a popular golfer. Thats why many people would like to see him do well.
What does it matter how many tournaments or majors a guy has won??
You\'re certainly free to root for whomever you want.
I don\'t care what he called Tiger, who he picked for the President\'s Cup, or any of the other stuff.
I just think its cool that a guy at his age, competing against guys half his age, with a bad back, is leading after 2 rds.
He played poorly today and fell back. Oh well.
You really take this stuff seriously.
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> alm Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > So here\'s what I see.
>
> > Personally I don\'t think is a particularly
> tough
> > group. I\'ll stick with Pletcher in this
> > case...with a horse that appears ready for a
> > breakthrough race.
>
> Alm:
>
> You better hope so, or your rather excellent Derby
> future selection is outside
> looking in in terms of earnings.
>
> I look forward to watching Caleb\'s Posse, who to
> me was clearly last years top 3YO
> on the basis of his 4 graded stakes wins,
> including Grade 1 scores in the BC Dirt
> Mile and the Kings Bishop (while many say that
> Caleb passed a leg weary Uncle Mo
> in the Kings Bishop, his burst of speed in the
> last 1/8th mile was rather
> breathtaking).
>
> Trainer von Hemel has stated that the Met Mile is
> his objective with Caleb, and
> it is an important race in Caleb\'s 2012 campaign
> with the BC Mile being run at 2
> turns at SA this year. While Caleb was not really
> ineffective at two turning last
> year (winning the Ohio Derby (Gr 3) at 1-1/16th,
> running second in the Rebel
> behind The Factor and in front of eventual Ark
> Derby winner Archarcharch, and
> winning the one mile Smarty Jones at OP), it is
> clear he is a special colt in one
> turn races.
>
> As HP stated, a glorious weather weekend on tap in
> NY, with four graded stakes on
> the Wood card (and since the Clueless Clowns will
> never change, there is an all
> maiden pick 4 early in the card), the opening of
> Keeneland (cmon, haters, its
> very good racing -- synthetic or not) plus the
> Masters, with Tiger against the
> World. (I\'ll be pulling pretty strongly for the
> World here.)
>
> While I\'m rambling along, let me also mention that
> this weekend begins the
> pursuit of Lord Stanley\'s Cup. To me the NHL is
> very unique in that there is a
> marked difference between the regular season and
> the playoffs: Most notably, the
> controversial \"shootout\" tie breaking mechanism is
> not utilized, but also the
> intensity level, the way teams approach the game
> (much less chippiness) and the
> way the games are refereed makes for compelling
> sport; that being said, the
> moment the team I follow -- the NJ Debtvils -- is
> eliminated, I won\'t watch
> another game.
Three wide the entire route. Was that a breakthrough race or what?
How do you think the time stacks up? The track didn\'t seem super fast, but almost 1:51 is really loafing.
We will have to wait to see what kind of number they get. I was not paying close attention to the races during the day. Most important, this horse keeps improving a modest amount, race to race...he\'s going in the right direction and most have not really assigned any importance to the fact that he is undefeated. Also, that he has won at Churchill. He has won most of his races with speed and now we know he can use that speed to get position and then move around other horses.
Versatile. Contender.
Might not be great....idk!
But when he was challenged his daddy\'s pedigree kicked in and he will one tough customer in that CD stretch with another race in him
Wood was on the slow side as was the surface all day with a stiff wind in their face in the one turn races.Wood only two turn race all day.Gem\'s fig may get saved by ground but race was slow, third place finisher, TOAG a slow slug only 3 back(a point+ before any ground comparison)
SA derby, Creative Cause no excuse, a common performance with a perfect trip.Winner IHA ok,looking outrun by CC around last turn but out-gaming CC.Raw time ok on a very glib Santa Anita surface.
Illinois Derby field embarrassing!
Derby contenders looking the same,like apples in a barrel.
Mike
Appreciate the comments, but what is \'great?\' Finishing third to a sprinter in an average Wood, then winning the Triple Crown? I\'m not trying to be snarky, but just making a point. These are young horses, developing race to race. It\'s a little too early to be looking for \'great.\' Gemologist is undefeated...no other contending three year old can say as much. And he didn\'t appear to want anyone to pass him today, that\'s for sure.
Agree about Aqueduct. Broadway\'s Alibi had wind in the face for the long run out of the chute, and still put up 1:36.5 for the mile. Even figuring for the turn and the extra distance, that performance was better than the Wood runners. Re-rally by winner does suggest there is more there, though, and a good gallop-out too.
SA Derby time was ordinary as well. Two allowance races went through the mile faster, and the state breds weren\'t slowing down much. I\'m sure Baffert\'s runners are nice horses, but jumping up to 3rd and 4th in a G1 makes one wonder about the quality of the race.
Last two weeks are a bunch of \"meh\".
Al,
Gem is definitely ok but like the rest, he has not run that fast yet and seems to have no advantage over 5-6 others.You may have been impressed, I thought his run from about the 5/16 th\'s was on the grindy side. Likes CD but can\'t see him winning the derby without a good trip(same for all of them)
Depending on the Arkansas Derby and the Blue Grass, this may be one of the slowest/evenly matched groups of 3yr olds in a while.
I think there is only one horse with a 100 Beyer and none with a serious TG fig( like 1/2 or zero-ish) so far.
Mike
Creative Cause ran a 0 in the San Felipe.
His trainer mentioned that TG # post race yesterday.We\'ll see if Harrington can get him back to that top at Churchill or better but he wasn\'t expecting another big race out of his horse yesterday.
Hansen jumped up to a 0.5 in the Gotham.
Beyer gave the Wood a 98 yesterday and with the wide I\'m guessing Gemologist was in the 0 range.
The filly(KY Oaks) is the only one besides those three to run fast enough so far.
Creative Cause is versatile and appears to have more gas on the turns than the other two.
Big,
First, like to have what Harrington is smoking.CC awful yesterday hanging off a perfect trip, barely getting by Blue Skys and Rainbows???, getting run down by a horse he left for dead on the turn who had a tougher trip. CC\'s works up to the SA derby tough to read.
Second,surprised Beyer gave Gemologist a 98(Teeth of Dog improved 10 points?) as there was nothing fast about that race except the first quarter,somewhat aided by the wind.At Saratoga and Aqueduct Beyer has sometimes had issues with two turn route raw times not stacking up vs the rest of the day, esp when there are no other two turn dirt routes.Think JB found the same problem, not sure what RAGS does.
Yesterday an example of the one turners out of the chute,with a much longer run into the wind than the Wood,coming up much faster than the Wood projecting out raw time.Tough to convert/project one and two turn races due to the very different dynamics/strategy employed by jocks and of course the different layout.
Anyhow if TG/RAGS agree with Beyer, you have Gemologist in/near negative territory without running anything resembling a fast split.
Good luck,
Mike
Al,
My reference to the current crop reflects now, what happens in the future is unknown.Hansen and Bodemeister have to still run.Point is that we\'ve all seen the contenders run more than once and ???. Think Algorythms and Fed Biz showed more brilliance than any of these, so far.
I never believed for one minute that horses have an on/off switch that a trainer can use.It\'s possible that some horses have not been \"pressed down\"on but that does not mean when they are, they will be faster.
Incidentally, always believe what you see with your eyes more than anything else.
Good luck,
Mike
Miff what did you think of Gemologist in the stretch after watching the head on?
Big,
Gem may get a bi but young horses are trained to accelerate and head inside and many are just green. I think the bi or bo designations for young horses are over rated unless you know for a fact that a horse is trying to get off a stressing limb.
Did Gem really dig in or did Alpha hang late? Alpha, not one I liked going in, made multiple moves despite being roughed up early.Smallish horse ran hard, not sure he has the physical attributes to come back for the derby.Alpha trained to the dime for yesterday,Kiaran would tell you this if he was being candid.
Anyway,if I liked GEM, his wandering in would be meaningless to me unless I found out he has an issue.
Mike
Still don\'t think Alpha (or Dominguez) was fully cranked for that race and still looked pretty good while Gemologist was fully cranked because he needed earnings..I would probably choose Alpha over Gemologist when they run back...
Not much separating all of the top horses considered for the derby. It all comes down to post position and race setup.
Mike
This is not a snarky question, but please tell me what you mean by brilliance. I watched all those races and am not sure what you saw. For my part I did not think I was looking at worldbeaters.
Al
Al,
Nor did I, as far as world beaters but Algo and Fed Biz showed more acceleration/gears than this the grindy group of contenders,at an earlier stage.
Gemologist, for example, was completely under a ride from about the 5/16ths in the Wood and did not show anything more than a decent turn of foot, last 1/8th in a common 13.22 with the wind, considering track speed, confirms that.Watch the race again and you will see that Gem did not really separate from the tiring pace setter, Alpha or that Dog horse after making his run.Gem did appear to get brave when Alpha came to him, thought Alpha kinda hung late.Gem obviously a major contender with 2 wins at CD, a forward look,distance breeding.
Union Rags, Alpha, Creative Cause,I\'ll Have Another also grindy.Maybe an unfair comparison but if you took their internals(not pace figs) and compare them to Algo and Fed Biz, you would know what I mean by brilliance. A surprising horse has the best internal in 2 successive races,Take Charge Indy,for what thats worth.
The SA Derby comes up a kinda light 94 Beyer for winner IHA, fig may get saved by ground.Runnerup, Creative Cause a despicable performance, perfect trip,hanging late.
The Illinois Derby winner a joke, 85 Beyer.
Great betting derby pending final preps, defections, training up, post draw.Could be the year of the slug with none of these so far showing they could overcome a derby tough trip and still hit the board much less win.No one deserves to be less than 4-1.
Mike
I agree it\'s going to be a great betting Derby, for those of us that like exotics. Because of the earnings rule there are a ton of throwouts that will take unwarranted (Derby) money-- and 10 cent supers.
I came up with at least 3 or 4 in the top 20 on earnings that will not go, obviously that picture will change next week (and possibly the week after).
Although O\'Brien said both his UAE horses were going, I\'d be surprised if Wrote actually shows up. Think they\'ll only send DLL.
This is just a massive weekend in Hotsprings for Bodimeister. It\'s not impossible he could be very very good. But a wide trip, even in an ultra fast time just getting nosed by say perhaps Isn\'t He Clever (running to his 0) would mean BODI sits at 260K. The same as Mark Valeski. Next tie breaker is non graded stakes earnings, of which they are tied. The next, and final, tie breaker, is a shake. If that\'s for the 20th spot, it would be one bloody important role of the dice.
Maybe they could get Baffert and Jones to use pistols at 20 paces...
Do they take 10-cent supers on the Derby? Seems like I remember trying to make this bet a couple of years ago and being told not (Calder, I think)
There are several horses that shouldn\'t go, but probably will - like Liason, the filly (Edit: I see they\'re pointing the filly to the Oaks). Trinniberg probably shouldn\'t go either, but if he runs like he did in the Bayshore (sub 12 second final furlong) and it\'s speed favoring, he could pull a Shakleford.
They don\'t do dime supers on track on Derby day. It\'s hard to get the temp tellers to handle an exacta wheel. If they started taking dime supers, you\'d have to place all your bets before noon.
Dave Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> They don\'t do dime supers on track on Derby day.
> It\'s hard to get the temp tellers to handle an
> exacta wheel. If they started taking dime supers,
> you\'d have to place all your bets before noon.
Nothing more frustrating than having to tell the temp teller how to punch in a bet when they are loading the gates...
I used to work the Mutuel Windows in college & I attended the Breeder\'s Cup many times, that is more of a disaster @ the windows. Hour long lines & then tellers taking a break 4 minutes prior to post, after waiting in line 45 minutes! Are you kidding me? So being a former Mutuel Teller, I made her continue to work & told her to take her break only during the running of any races. Some people are so clueless & what, can\'t see that long lines are awaiting their services. Where are the line managers? The KY Derby seemed better for the fans in as far a betting goes, but must bet the Derby several races in advance.
OK, done venting. I am a Living Rooms Downs fan now & will never attend a Breeders Cup again. Hard to get food, beer & bet the races. WOW, that is reasons I go to the races in the first place!