Looks like a pretty easy race. hope I don\'t eat my words. I\'m going with Bode over Empire & backing it up lightly w/ Bode over Creative & Rousing. I\'m not tossing Creative as his last # would have been better if it was at this distance.
If Bodemeister pairs his 2 he\'s on his way east and moving forward in typical Baffert fashion for his 3 yr. olds.
Groovin\"Solo is a must use underneath at the morning line price and American Act is going in the correct direction although I\'m a bit leery of (bi) back to back but will still use him as he\'s inside.
Speaking of inside! A lot of nice price horses getting into the exotics of late at Gulfstream from the inside posts in the turf races with that very short run into the first turn. Geometry with any kind of reasonable figure = $$$
Good luck and let\'s hope the clueless clowns of Capital OTB can resolve their take out issues with Oaklawn and Fair Grounds soon. The constant and massive stupidity by the people that run this game never ceases to amaze me.
Frank D.
\"The constant and massive stupidity by the people that run this game never ceases to amaze me\"
Frank D,
Why?,massive stupidity is a common trait amongst the Clueless Clowns running the game.Should pull the write ups on the recent Albany meeting of the Clueless NYRA top management and State Racing boss Sabini.
Clueless Charlie Hayward boasting of NYRA\'s financial position after receiving MASSIVE hand out from slots.Hardly a dollar of the present financial well being is due to NYRA initiatives.Heres a guy responsible for running an insolvent quasi State agency(NYRA) for years,bailed out more times than a sky diver,boasting!
Then the genius Chairman Sabini gloating that Kentucky racing is somewhat in crisis. Out of touch fool does not know that if Kentucky racing/breeding folded up,there would probably be no NY racing eventually.
...\"massive stupidity\" could be understating it.
Mike
Frank D. agree with you on Groovin Solo at that price. Good trainer and raced every bit as well as Empire Way in last, and will be much better odds. Listening to Steve Byk show pointed out that Bodemeister was not trained specifically for this race, but just decided to enter a few days ago. Will box Groovin with Empire Way.
Maybe I spend too much time referring to the Sire Profile. I like GS @ the odds, but the high sire profile tends to push me away, as I think he is outrunning his bloodlines. Am I totally off base & overthinking this angle? Thoughts please.
With only two smallish crops representing those numbers, I\'d be inclined to give Bob and John a break on his TG index. Would also note that the mare threw the winner of the 2011 San Felipe and others who were faster routing than sprinting. His figures are more likely to hold him back here, more so than his bloodlines, I\'d think. Leaning towards just boxing Bode with the Hollendorfer, who looks to have upside here.
bode at 2-1. I\'m playing him to win along with the exotics.
Creative cause ran huge. small backup play on the exacta but mostly ripping tickets.
BC Juvy looking like a Key Race!!
No value in that race at all.
I thought there was plenty of value in the exacta pool. Look at the exacta payoff. the 2 faves paid $22. I played the bode/empire exacta which was paying $72. Plenty of value in the race. If you disagree with the value on the 2-1 win odds on my bode play i won\'t argue. I figured Bode would pair his 2, which would have been enough to win. he may have paired the 2 but creative may have run a sub 2#.
If you find value in a chalk exacta paying $22 for a deuce, I\'m not going to argue. Congrats. I guess we all have different definitions of value.
The value was in the other exactas. they were mostly paying nice. Typically a 9-5 over a 2-1 does not pay $22. I did not make this my play. i had a small backup play on this. Here are some prices with bode on top. Bode over creative was paying $20, over Liason $36, every other payoff was over $50. I think that is value when you have a 2-1 on top. only 2 exacta payoffs under $50 with a 2-1 on top. I find value in this, if you don\'t then we will disagree on this. I only need to hit this race every 30 races to break even on the exacta part of my play. i may have lost this one but in the long run i will make money on a race like this.
So far six Stakes winners out of thia race. Another ran today. Do not know if it won. This is not the 2010 crop which fell apart.
With a Beyer of 102 Creative Cause giving 5lbs and circling wide off the last turn gets the best two turn derby prep fig so far,estimated in the TG 0 range.
JB,will be interested to see what Rags gives CC as they had him very fast going in with a fig equal to a TG 1/2, much faster than TG and Beyer.
Fed Biz, my early derby pick, gone with back issues.
Mike
Fed Biz was also my future play. Seems like everyone I have played over the years gets injured. Tough bet, but the odds are always very tempting. Creative\'s wide move will get a better # than Bode but I am not sure CC is a 1 1/4 mile horse. I still like Bode, who should get better with only 3 lifetime starts, and a tough race in him this past Saturday.
miff Wrote:
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>
> Fed Biz, my early derby pick, gone with back
> issues.
Interesting story there Mike. BAffert is to be commended for not forging on when the horse is \"a little Off\" but they do not know where and why. Baffert is putting the horse before himself and thats real horsemanship.
Last year The Factor was a little off after The Rebel. They had him looked at and they found nothing. Bramledge I was told. After the dreadful Arkansas Derby performance they looked again and still nothing. Finally on the third look they found something. Chip, flake, small crack not exactly sure but they stopped immediately on him and now have a pretty good horse this year to show for it.
Baffert I am sure is drawing on these experiences and as tempting as it can be Triple Crown, etc he is \"doing right by the horse\". And this how you keep getting these type of good horses.
\"but I am not sure CC is a 1 1/4 mile horse\"
Just,
A fair assessment but I encourage you to note that CC was strongest the last 1/16th, once straight, and galloped out about 10 lengths in front of the field.
Not a real fan either but respecting more after yesterday.
Mike
Agree, in fact he looks as much the part of a 1 1/4 horse as any this spring. Really surged once he switched leads. Only gallop out that compares was El Padrino in the Risen Star. SA has been a very fast strip, though - makes we wonder about the numbers.
Bode, not so much. He won\'t get that kind of trip in the Derby. California scene has really changed for the worse in about a week. No Out of Bounds or Fed Biz, Liason and Rousing Sermon look ordinary. Midnight Transfer is a miler. CC will have to carry the water.
I think his stablemate Empire Way is a true 1 1/4 mile horse who didn\'t show up on Saturday running a dull 9th. He\'s reportedly going to ship out of town for his next prep race. It will be interesting to see where, and who rides.
el padrino\'s gallop out was good no doubt. he\'s very chic. mark valeski on the other hand. whew!! first time 2 turns( according to Jones he looked fat going postward ) and goes out like that.