I\'m told in the BC Juvy....Hansen bled a 10. Not being an expert on this type of thing I am alao told that mentally this can be a very very bad expereince for a young horse. Considering how Hansen seemed to almost run off early in his last, offer NO resistance in his last when tackled in the stretch and left town from South Florida faster than someone who owes four different bookies....why is he a play tomorrow? Assuming what I was told is true? And I feel like this is a reliable source....Hmmm
Could not have been more wrong here. Nice effort and 95 Beyer which is what Rags ran last week who has already been annoited.
Some very very good pictures of this one floating around Facebook and other places. The women love this guy. Which from a Fan standpoint is never a bad thing.
I got this one almost completely wrong. Thought with Hansen hung wide on first turn that he was going to get used up. Finnegan\'s Wake will be interesting to watch going forward. I imagine Motion will point him to the Blue Grass.
Having a tough time seeing any of the also-rans doing anything interesting. Hansen and My Adonis spotted FW weight and he made up no ground on them in the last 5/16ths and was 6 lengths back of MA at the wire.
That he was passing everybody late looks to say more about the everybody.
Why were you wrong, did you find out that he didnt actually bleed? What does his win yesterday have to do with whether he bled or not?
Well you may be right but I didnt want to post and osund like sour grapes either. Hansen ran well and won. Came off the last turn like a racehorse and good for him. As Monmouth Guy said between the questions about being hung wide and maybe what I had heard at 4/5 he was an easy bet against.
He has now already shipped out to Turfway where I guess he is going back to Poly in the Lanes End and then the Blue Grass or just one of them. So he will be tough to figure on derby Day unless he begins to run better figures.
Which before yesterday were not much.....
Maker says Wood will be next
At this early point in the prep season you have very little to work with in terms of looking for the bigger priced Derby horse. For sure, you won\'t get decent odds on Hansen or Union Rags in the Future pools. If there is a logical longer priced runner, you\'ve got to look at Gemologist, who\'s actually won at Churchill. Not at the biggest numbers as a two year old, but you will be betting on the hope his best has yet to come. Until something else reveals itself and assuming you want to duck the two big two year olds, this is your Future pool runner.
If you were making book on whether Gemologist gets to the gate, what odds would you give him - given that\'s he\'s not made a start yet this year.
23-1 seems a very short price. Even with a win in the Rebel and Arkansas, he goes to the gate at double digits (Behind Rags, Hansen, El Padrino, and the West Coast leader)
It may have changed from just a few years back but vets would grade bleeders on a scale from 1-4. Grade 1 was deemed to have no bearing on a horses performance. Graded 2 subject to opinion of performance. Grade 3 and 4 were deemed to have adversely affected performance.Guess the 10 for Hansen was the top level(4)
Beth, can you clue us in on present grading re bleeders.
Mike
Based on TG #\'s it seems to me there is a standout bet for the race. He was very fast (for this crop) as an early 2yo, has kept excellent company, moved through his top to a big (but not crazy) number in his 1st start at 3, and should relish more distance. And he\'s available between 40:1 and 50:1.
And, he\'s running this weekend, after posting a huge work at PMM??
Just a guess.
A very good guess.
1 through 4, as you described.
Here\'s some good background for handicappers.
http://www.nytha.com/pdf/the_lasix_question.pdf
Well, I have zero insight on why the horse hasn\'t appeared yet. However, if you are right and 23-1 is short, it\'s short for a reason. Until there\'s a story about problems with this one, I have to assume someone likes him. My point was that given what we know, he\'s my best bet against the two top horses in the future pools. That\'s all.
Phil
The summer two year old debut is very good and so is the first race back this year.
Problem could be the OFF-X-X races in between.I guess we\'ll know after his next couple.
No disagreement on his talent, and the way things have been in recent years, two starts before the Derby shouldn\'t be an impediment.
I guess I\'ve just got a different philosophy on future wagers. The comparison doesn\'t seem to be with the top two (that are almost certainly bad bets at this stage). It\'s with what we\'d expect the odds to be for Gemologist on
Derby day. If you think you can get 12-1 or better the day of the race, 23-1 before he\'s turned a foot in anger this year doesn\'t look cheap - even if he\'s the most talented of this crop.
I\'m hoping this guy does NOT win the Rebel, which may boost the odds in the final future pool. I know nothing repeats itself exactly (except for the Giants-Pats) but Pletcher\'s come this way before. If the horse also loses the Ark Derby, who knows what trackside odds you\'ll get in Louisville.
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Well you may be right but I didnt want to post and
> osund like sour grapes either. Hansen ran well and
> won. Came off the last turn like a racehorse and
> good for him. As Monmouth Guy said between the
> questions about being hung wide and maybe what I
> had heard at 4/5 he was an easy bet against.
>
> He has now already shipped out to Turfway where I
> guess he is going back to Poly in the Lanes End
> and then the Blue Grass or just one of them. So he
> will be tough to figure on derby Day unless he
> begins to run better figures.
>
> Which before yesterday were not much.....
You were right to say you were wrong. A horse that bleeds a 10, that describes a horse who bled out and died or close to it. That horse isn\'t coming back in a month to run in any race, much less win one. It\'s possible he bled a little through his Lasix but that\'s also doubtful as that\'s a problem as well. Lesson learned here, I\'d say, is to not trust future info from the person who told you this.
So...rumour has it Byrne is going to scratch (didn\'t like post and the ship) and wait for Florida D. I think his odds of getting into the race just went down (only has 98k in gr$, 3rd in Fla D is 100k which MIGHT be enough, 2nd certainly would) but his odds of winning if he makes the gate have gone up. 2 starts @ 3 prior to the derby, perfect rest (5wks), etc...
Still 45:1
ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> No disagreement on his talent, and the way things
> have been in recent years, two starts before the
> Derby shouldn\'t be an impediment.
>
> I guess I\'ve just got a different philosophy on
> future wagers. The comparison doesn\'t seem to be
> with the top two (that are almost certainly bad
> bets at this stage). It\'s with what we\'d expect
> the odds to be for Gemologist on
> Derby day. If you think you can get 12-1 or
> better the day of the race, 23-1 before he\'s
> turned a foot in anger this year doesn\'t look
> cheap - even if he\'s the most talented of this
> crop.
What do you think of the value of my Pool One bet now? Seriously, not snarkily.
He looked . . . . pretty damn good - especially off the layoff. Made a very nice horse look ordinary. It will get a top number.
Not quite sure I\'m that wild about 23-1. But if he blows them away in the Wood or Arkansas Derby, it could look like a very good bet. Still have a hard time seeing how he leaves the gate at lower odds than Hansen, Union Rags, and Creative Cause. And if Alpha wins in Louisiana, Dullahan the Blue Grass, and El Padrino makes it close in the Floida Derby, Gemologist could be the 7th choice. (Derby could be an even better betting race than usual this year);
But if off that effort, you offer me 23-1, I give it some serious thought.
ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> He looked . . . . pretty damn good - especially
> off the layoff. Made a very nice horse look
> ordinary. It will get a top number.
>
> Not quite sure I\'m that wild about 23-1. But if
> he blows them away in the Wood or Arkansas Derby,
> it could look like a very good bet. Still have a
> hard time seeing how he leaves the gate at lower
> odds than Hansen, Union Rags, and Creative Cause.
> And if Alpha wins in Louisiana, Dullahan the Blue
> Grass, and El Padrino makes it close in the Floida
> Derby, Gemologist could be the 7th choice. (Derby
> could be an even better betting race than usual
> this year);
>
> But if off that effort, you offer me 23-1, I give
> it some serious thought.
Well, if they keep him in Florida and he beats Union in the Fla Derby, he\'s sure to get MUCH lower odds in Churchill.
Are they really thinking of wheeling him back in two weeks??
Since he needs earnings, I\'d think they would go with what looks like a softer spot (after yesterday) in Arkansas or Illinois.
ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Are they really thinking of wheeling him back in
> two weeks??
>
> Since he needs earnings, I\'d think they would go
> with what looks like a softer spot (after
> yesterday) in Arkansas or Illinois.
I read it\'s the Wood...is that right? If so, he gets Hansen. That doesn\'t knock out Union Rags who is the likely Derby favorite, but it probably puts Gem in the second spot if he runs down the gray horse.
Of course, he has to avoid the bounce off that sharp mile...and he still has to prove he can run AT horses. Hansen may give him that test.
It\'s still too early to be thinking this way, but I think that one of these three is most likely the Derby winner. The others are running in circles and haven\'t made a big impression.
Al,
Gem came back with a new top (Beyer 95) so that put\'s him in the TG 2.75 range with a forward looking line.Never can say how much a race takes out of a horse, but visually he could not have won easier and was grabbed late.
Good Luck!
Mike