The race of the week will be the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream this Sunday, 2/26/12. It will be up early Saturday afternoon.
Thx TG! Obviously a key and interesting race!!
Algorithims scratch makes this race hard to bet. Was hoping to get Discreet Dancer at 5/2 or better. Don\'t think he is value as an 8/5 second choice.
MonmouthGuy Wrote:
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> Algorithims scratch makes this race hard to bet.
> Was hoping to get Discreet Dancer at 5/2 or
> better. Don\'t think he is value as an 8/5 second
> choice.
Agreed...the only bet that seems to make sense now is to hammer the tri of 5/7/4
Lost Cause Wrote:
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> MonmouthGuy Wrote:
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> -----
>
>
> Agreed...the only bet that seems to make sense now
> is to hammer the tri of 5/7/4
Or maybe not!!looks like he improved a little from 2 to 3 huh??
I didn\'t touch the race, but Union Rags going off as 6/5 second choice w/o Alogorithims in race was crazy. DD as 4/5 favorite---insane.
Race comes up a little above average average,visuals aside. Beyer of 95 with ground and weight may produce a mini TG top,if JB sees it the same as Beyer.Small problem in that 2nd horse, Newsdad,with a dirt TG 10, as previous best, only beaten 4 lengths while carrying 1.20 less points of weight while losing more ground than UR on the first turn but less on the last turn.No other 2 turn dirt routes on the day.
UR leaps to the top of the pile for now,very strong last 5/16ths in 30 flat easing under the wire galloping out well.Perfect dynamics set up for UR, ugly rail, negative speed, best path.
Men separate from the boys next 30+ days.
Mike
Mike-- right on the gaps limiting how fast it could be. Also, I wasn\'t paying that close attention, but given Jeff Siegel\'s comment on HRTV BEFORE the race, I\'m going to take a good look at the rail both days.
Yes also on the Derby contenders now start sorting themselves out, though I would say 45 days. But there\'s already a big problem looming-- coupla guys clearly have horses exploding recently, will they be able to do so in Ky.?
\"Mike-- right on the gaps limiting how fast it could be. Also, I wasn\'t paying that close attention, but given Jeff Siegel\'s comment on HRTV BEFORE the race.
JB,
Went into the day standing with DD until I sensed the bad speed/rail from Sat and then Sunday.TAP\'s Liberty Bound,6th race, sealed the deal for me when swallowed, albeit a fast pace.
If you eliminate one or two front running layovers over the two days(which is the correct way to establish bias, not necessarily dead rail) you will probably get the dead rail X.The negative speed factor,a separate issue,established for both days.
Head on of FOY shows DD with Johnny V off the rail for very conscious bias outfit.
Mike
Miff
It appeared Union Rags maintained a straight course in the stretch for the first time in his career.I didn\'t see the head on though.How was he?
Last year he was going in and out when the jock threw a cross or used the stick.No whip yesterday just a hand ride.
Big,
Straight as a string thru the lane. He wears a shadow roll and is still very young so as long as he was not stressing on a limb or something like that, I would not worry about last year.
Connections gotta be on cloud nine with an APPARENT easy win.Is he bouncing today or laying down in his stall?
Mike
Great discussion.
According to Trakus, UR ran 10 feet more than NP, or just over a length.
Miff - would you say that you think DD was off the rail and therefore WILL NOT get a dead rail designation? That\'s a pretty big decision. If he gets the X, then totally eligible to rebound, if not, then it\'s all the distance challenge questions, etc..
Phil,
X or not for the rail,the inside was not the place to be for two days.DD was also cutting the front end on a track generally unkind to speed.The issues of dead rail and negative speed are two separate issues although dead rail days are often negative speed days also.
DD may be a foot rattling 7f/miler type that do not do well going 48 halves, snugged up, with the closers on top of them.He\'ll probably cut back in distance next start.He\'s fast, would not give up on him as a horse,though probably not a Classic type.
Mike
I am going to reserve judgement on how great a performance UR had. the fractions were very slow and the final time was not impressive. Yes, he did it with ease but now he only has one more race to get ready for the 1 1/4 mile race. his seasoning for that final furlong in the KYD will be an issue. We shall see but I think he needs to be really tested in the next race.
When is Pletcher going to give up on trying to get Storm Cat line to go classic distances?
Nice horse, beat a bunch of sprinters and slow slugs, big deal. If he scares off any quality stock and beats up again on the local colony in the FLA Derby, he\'s a bet against favorite in Kentucky.
Not sure what counts as \"very slow\" and \"not impressive\" - but those fractions are completely respectable for a two turn race at GP. Marginally slower first half than, say, the Donn - but home quicker. Same time as El Padrino\'s slop romp at the distance.
But this is what figs are for, anyway.
Its not a great comparison but the other races during the same day (excluding the 6f races) ran faster splits but the races were shorter. if you project out the final time there will not be much separation between the maiden special weight race, the starter allowance race and the optional claiming race as compared to UR. If the track slowed up during the day thats another story. Visually he looked good but many other quality horses would have also. I doubt any of the other horses will be in the derby. the runner up has an outside shot. As you said, we shall see what the figs are.
If you\'re doing your own analysis of the race, one thing worth remembering is the the configuration of 1 1/6 mile races at GP. There is almost no run to the first turn - as opposed to a 7 furlong or mile race which is a straight shot run out of the chute to only one turn. There is also less stretch run, since the 1 1/16 races end at the alternate finish line, short of the usual finish. So, substantially more (as a %) of the race is on the turns, even compared to the 1 1/8 races, let alone a mile.
Also worth noting is that the other three races were slowing down - the 7fs substantially. UR cruising around doing 24s.
Sure, it didn\'t set the world on fire. But no one should look at that race and say, \"slow\".
Last two Florida Derby winners that went on to win the Derby were also beating up on \"sprinters and slow slugs\"
Big Brown went to Ky. favored and Barbaro was a 2nd choice.
Florida Derby is a long ways off but the only hole I can punch in Union Rags so far might be pedigree.Dixie Union over a Gone West mare doesn\'t scream ten furlongs.Maybe Nijinski and his daughter Terpsichorist on the bottom gets him the needed stamina.
Rags wandering in the stretch cost him the Juvenile as much as the wide IMO but he seems to have put that behind him.Sheet is gonna look good heading into the Florida Derby and Matz already figured out a way to win one of these.I\'m not ready to give in to him if he does win the next one,but he looks real so far.
If you want competitive preps(at least on paper) check out the San Felipe a week from Saturday.
Looking forward to San Felipe. Played Fed Biz @ 60-1 in the future book when I was in Vegas in january.
Good play at those odds if Fed Biz goes on to make the Derby.He could be a nice one.
He probably jumped way up in his last win.Now the issue becomes earnings and you don\'t want him gutted trying to get there.Baffert on a ridiculous roll now-you have to hope he has something left for May.The rest of the possible San Felipe field looks pretty tightly bunched.