Those of you who did not take the analysis for today\'s Aqu should check the Red Board Room for the 5th race. Yes, it doesn\'t always work like this. But there is NO PLACE else someone is giving out horses that pay $129. Ever. Let alone as a B+ bet.
A tremendous accomplishment, but whats the big deal about a $100 mutuel at the
InnerCourse, sez I, tongue planted firmly in cheek.
Thats the third $100+ mutuel at AQ since January 11, and there was a $93 win ticket
on January 7.
Cant crack wise about the quality of NY racing; Aqueduct maiden breaker won the
Smarty Jones at OP, a race which should at least convince some owners not to nominate
for the Triple Crown.
Speaking of the Triple Crown, \"Secretariat\" came on cable last night and I was too
lazy to retrieve the remote. Its kind of fun watching Pancho boast about Sham before
the Belmont, knowing what the result is; also kind of painful to hear a public
address announcer refer to \"Saratoga Park.\" At least they finally made a movie which
didn\'t feature Diane Lane as an adulterer.
Convinced that the only way racing can get any mainstream attention is with another
Triple Crown winner. BC was much more likely to attract mainstream attention before
it became two day event.
Speaking again of New York three year olds, King and Crusader, who was DQ\'d at Laurel
after stewards determined that he was being medicated within two hours of race time,
won the first race at AQ on Friday. And the eighth race at AQ today.
Let me amend a previous paragraph: \"the only way racing can get any mainstream
attention is with a Triple Crown contender trained by Rick Dutrow Jr.\"
I take exception to this , JB...yes, it\'s a great call...but please, this is so much the exception I am surprised you posted this. The analysis is not your best product. Other products are noteworthy. I still advocate you post the author for this product.
...beaten 14+ lenghts 2 weeks ago same track, same distance, pointing back to a top.....seriously?
Yes. Seriously.
Yea, but how do you not have the $1,300 double with the winner in the next race? Fastest horse in the race at the weights and the analysis goes with 4 others in an 8 horse field. Bragging rights? Seriously.
Its a little bit of hyperbole to say that this is the only place that someone can pick a $100+ horse. Its not.
Its a nice pick, but it isn\'t the only place it happens, and the ROI of all analysis picks probably isn\'t anything earth shattering. Some are real head scratchers.
Still, nice selection for that race.
No-- somebody has every $100 horse. My point is that when you find another SERVICE giving out big price horses like we do, let me know.
Shanahan-- I did it because it involved a $129 winner. I don\'t beat the drums for all the good days, and I do let people take shots at us for the bad ones, and at the product in general, on my own board. But since you brought it up, Alan had a big day with the analysis at Aqu and FG Sunday as well.
And no, he didn\'t bet them. Of course. Single best betting system I have ever seen.
TGJB Wrote:
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> And no, [Alan] didn\'t bet them. Of course.
> Single best betting system I have ever seen.
There is something to this, I swear.
I seem to do my best handicapping when I have no intention of playing.
Last summer, my barber mentioned that she and her husband were going to Arlington the next day, and do I like anybody? I said I hadn\'t looked, but when I go home I\'ll do a little handicapping and send her an e-mail.
I followed through as promised, but I was buried with work and did not play nor follow my picks the next day. That night, my barber called me. She was ecstatic.
\"We won BIG! We used your picks and cashed in 6 races! We even hit that trifecta that you gave us, it paid $3200! Thank you SO MUCH! What do I do with this IRS form they gave me?\"
\"That\'s great\", I said. \"Glad you had a good time. Talk to you later, I have to go...\".
Yeah. I had to go, alright. To throw up.
\"Yes. Seriously\"
...need a bookmaker, seriously?
Seriously, you want to book me? You know where to find me.
For the record, I bet almost no chalk, and 85% exotics.
If you selected that 100 winner \"rounding to top\" or whatever was written then, YES absolutely and you know where to find me!
I don\'t use services that give out selections, so can\'t answer that.
As for information, that would lend itself to a selection, then there are others.
Lots of people cash every winner using all kinds of information-- again, it\'s not the point. With very few (possibly no) exceptions, everyone else who gets paid to analyze a racecard picks short priced horses to show they can provide winners. They don\'t even try to provide value, and don\'t have the ability to see the value in the longshots that we do.
Miff-- you can bark all you want, you\'re not going to book me (at least not matching the decent rebates I get), and you would be crazy to. But you\'re right-- that horse probably wasn\'t more than 10% to win.
Oh wait, that makes him a great bet...
Just pick winners.........fu** the odds!
I think Miff wants to talk to you... or should.
Miff-- you can bark all you want, you\'re not going to book me (at least not matching the decent rebates I get), and you would be crazy to. But you\'re right-- that horse probably wasn\'t more than 10% to win.
Oh wait, that makes him a great bet...
JB,
You\'re supposed to be working, not drinking.....10%, a great bet??? must be typo you added a zero by mistake to the %.
Mike
You understand the horse was over 60-1, right? And that 10% is 9-1?
hmmmm,so, are you saying that this impossible slug(by any reasonable/knowledge based handicapping methodology)had a 10% chance of winning even though he was 63-1 on the board, roughly a 1.59% odds prop.
You did read the part where we put him up and made him a B+ bet, right?
For what it\'s worth, I have used TG\'s analysis to win more than a couple of tournaments. The most recent success story was at the June Delaware Park tourney. With five races to go I bet 130.00 on a 36 1/2 shot to win. TG mentioned a horse and what they liked about this horse. I had a different opinion,but liked what TG had as a long shot. When my horse scratched, I went all in on the TG analysis pick. The horse won by a nose. The shame is, someone else, TG customer bet $150 to win. He won a around 23k,I won about 10k, and we are both going to Vegas.
Dennis Dougherty
Wilmington,DE
Enjoying the TGJB-Miff exchange, especially since we don\'t have the P-Dub- Rick B. battle anymore.
Thanks Bill!
I used the slug in question (off the sheet, didn\'t take the analysis) to win the hpq.com contest Monday. Thanks Tgraph!
I\'ve just read this entire string and not one person has mentioned the forward moving pattern to at least bring him back to an 11 or 12.
This horse was moving in the direction of running his 11 or 12 for sure. Easy pattern to read. Really only 2 horses in the race were targeted to run faster than that.
I didn\'t play, didn\'t look until today and the Aqueduct winter meet AKA Finger Lakes South has not received a dollar of my money this year, maybe 1,000 total last year from November-March.
If I were so inclined to wager at this meet especially with a stick out 2/5 shot in the 2nd, this horse is one of 4 that was a must use in the pick 4 or any other horizontal wagers at even 15 or 20/1.
Frank D.
Frank:
Good level headed analysis to counteract some of the back and forth bombast.
Maybe the story here is Neal Terraciano, a lifetime 10% trainer, who has won with 3
of his first 5 starters in 2012.
There is too much information available on the internet. Apparently, in 2001, one of
Terraciano\'s runners tested positive. For Viagra. Terraciano was fined $2000, and was
heard to say that he thought that this was a \"stiff\" penalty.
FrankD. Wrote:
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> I\'ve just read this entire string and not one
> person has mentioned the forward moving pattern to
> at least bring him back to an 11 or 12.
>
> This horse was moving in the direction of running
> his 11 or 12 for sure. Easy pattern to read.
> Really only 2 horses in the race were targeted to
> run faster than that.
I agree Frank...Didn\'t play on Monday just redboarded the race and according to the sheets he looked as good as anyone else coming back to a 12. The one that ran 9\'s in his last two did it on wet tracks..Nice pick by Alan but definitely not far -fetched on sheets. The running line , which I have not looked at, is probably another story...
Yes there have been head-scratchers sometimes on the analysis but there have been times that it has steered me in the right direction so I think it\'s another good tool especially if you don\'t have the time to handicap on your own..
How is the analysis doing at Gulfstream...honestly?
I haven\'t been betting seriously, just P3s and P4s and have consistently come up one race short. I need THAT horse.
Nice.
Richie-- stiff indeed. Funny you should mention Neil T, just noticed some other horse jumping a lot for him. Worth keeping an eye on.
For the record, Monday\'s analysis was done by Greg, not Al.
What is the hpq.com contest? Is Terraccino using Allday now?
www.horseplayersqualify.com
They run qualifiers to other contests like the NHC, Horse Player World Series, Wynn, Etc...
Mondays Contest was a $135 buy in with 84 entries, top 2 won a spot at the bettor racing (Randy Gallo) contest in Sioux Falls in Sept. $2500 entry,$2500 live bankroll, hotel,$250 travel cash. Similar format to the Breeders Cup contest. $150k min cash prize pool, and 3 NHC seats.
What percent chance did you give the #9 bomb that day?
Thanks,
flighted